├── .gitattributes ├── ideas ├── Momentum │ ├── trade-idea.md │ └── strategy.pine └── PMA │ ├── trade-idea.md │ └── strategy.pine ├── .gitignore ├── README.md └── LICENSE /.gitattributes: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # Auto detect text files and perform LF normalization 2 | * text=auto 3 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /ideas/Momentum/trade-idea.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | 2 | # Trade Idea: Momentum 3 | It seems that on trending instruments, when the 10-days and 5-days momentum indicators are positive, the market can be considered bullish. 4 | 5 | ## Long-only logic 6 | * When both momentum indicators are positive, asset is considered rising (bullish), and we can enter the market. 7 | * When any of momentum indicators becomes negative, it's time to exit the market. 8 | 9 | ## Long/Short logic 10 | * When both momentum indicators are positive, asset is considered rising (bullish), and we can go _Long_. 11 | * When both momentum indicators are negative, asset is considered falling (bearish) and we can go _Short_. 12 | * Otherwise, asset is considered ranging. 13 | 14 | # Formulation 15 | 16 | ## Long-only 17 | * **Enter**: mom(10) > 0 AND mom(5) > 0 18 | * **Exit**: mom(10) < 0 OR mom(5) < 0 19 | 20 | ## Long/Short 21 | * **Enter _Long_**: mom(10) > 0 AND mom(5) > 0 22 | * **Exit _Long_**: mom(10) < 0 OR mom(5) < 0 23 | * **Enter _Short_**: mom(10) < 0 AND mom(5) < 0 24 | * **Exit _Short_**: mom(10) > 0 OR mom(5) > 0 25 | 26 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /ideas/PMA/trade-idea.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | 2 | # Trade Idea: PMA 3 | PMA (Pivot Moving average) is a set of 3 EMAs on HLC/3 data. When all PMAs are rising, market is considered bullish. When all PMAs are falling, market is considered bearish. Otherwise, market is considered ranging. 4 | 5 | It seems that PMAs of 10, 20, 30 on daily chart has predictive power. 6 | 7 | ## Long-only logic 8 | * When all EMAs are rising, asset is considered rising (bullish), and we can enter the market. 9 | * When any of EMA indicators becomes negative, it's time to exit the market. 10 | 11 | ## Long/Short logic 12 | * When all EMAs are rising, asset is considered rising (bullish), and we can go _Long_. 13 | * When all EMAs are falling, asset is considered falling (bearish) and we can go _Short_. 14 | * Otherwise, asset is considered ranging. 15 | 16 | # Formulation 17 | 18 | ## Long-only 19 | * **Enter**: pma(10) is rising AND pma(20) is rising AND pma(30) is rising 20 | * **Exit**: pma(10) is falling OR pma(20) is falling OR pma(30) is falling 21 | 22 | ## Long/Short 23 | * **Enter _Long_**: pma(10) is rising AND pma(20) is rising AND pma(30) is rising 24 | * **Exit _Long_**: pma(10) is falling OR pma(20) is falling OR pma(30) is falling 25 | * **Enter _Short_**: pma(10) is falling AND pma(20) is falling AND pma(30) is falling 26 | * **Exit _Short_**: pma(10) is rising OR pma(20) is rising OR pma(30) is rising 27 | 28 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /ideas/Momentum/strategy.pine: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | // This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/ 2 | // © QuantCT 3 | // Public Library URL: https://www.tradingview.com/script/BzVpAYk1-Momentum-Strategy-Idea/ 4 | 5 | //@version=4 6 | strategy("Momentum Strategy Idea", 7 | shorttitle="Momentum", 8 | overlay=false, 9 | pyramiding=0, 10 | default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, 11 | default_qty_value=100, 12 | initial_capital=1000, 13 | commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, 14 | commission_value=0.075) 15 | 16 | // ____ Inputs 17 | 18 | fast_period = input(title="Fast Period", defval=5) 19 | slow_period = input(title="Slow Period", defval=10) 20 | long_only = input(title="Long Only", defval=false) 21 | slp = input(title="Stop-loss (%)", minval=1.0, maxval=25.0, defval=5.0) 22 | use_sl = input(title="Use Stop-Loss", defval=false) 23 | 24 | // ____ Logic 25 | 26 | mom_fast = mom(close, fast_period) 27 | mom_slow = mom(close, slow_period) 28 | 29 | enter_long = (mom_slow > 0 and mom_fast > 0) 30 | exit_long = (mom_slow < 0 or mom_fast < 0) 31 | enter_short = (mom_slow < 0 and mom_fast < 0) 32 | exit_short = (mom_slow > 0 or mom_fast > 0) 33 | 34 | strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, when=enter_long) 35 | strategy.close("Long", when=exit_long) 36 | if (not long_only) 37 | strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, when=enter_short) 38 | strategy.close("Short", when=exit_short) 39 | 40 | // ____ SL 41 | 42 | sl_long = strategy.position_avg_price * (1- (slp/100)) 43 | sl_short = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + (slp/100)) 44 | if (use_sl) 45 | strategy.exit(id="SL", from_entry="Long", stop=sl_long) 46 | strategy.exit(id="SL", from_entry="Short", stop=sl_short) 47 | 48 | // ____ Plots 49 | 50 | colors = 51 | enter_long ? #27D600 : 52 | enter_short ? #E30202 : 53 | color.orange 54 | 55 | mom_fast_plot = plot(mom_fast, color=colors) 56 | mom_slow_plot = plot(mom_slow, color=colors) 57 | fill(mom_fast_plot, mom_slow_plot, color=colors, transp=50) 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /ideas/PMA/strategy.pine: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | // This source code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0 at https://mozilla.org/MPL/2.0/ 2 | // © QuantCT 3 | // Public Library URL: https://www.tradingview.com/script/5p6Mli27-PMA-Strategy-Idea/ 4 | 5 | //@version=4 6 | strategy("PMA Strategy Idea", 7 | shorttitle="PMA", 8 | overlay=true, 9 | pyramiding=0, 10 | default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, 11 | default_qty_value=100, 12 | initial_capital=1000, 13 | commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, 14 | commission_value=0.075) 15 | 16 | // ____ Inputs 17 | 18 | ema1_period = input(title="EMA1 Period", defval=10) 19 | ema2_period = input(title="EMA2 Period", defval=20) 20 | ema3_period = input(title="EMA3 Period", defval=30) 21 | long_only = input(title="Long Only", defval=false) 22 | slp = input(title="Stop-loss (%)", minval=1.0, maxval=25.0, defval=5.0) 23 | use_sl = input(title="Use Stop-Loss", defval=false) 24 | 25 | // ____ Logic 26 | 27 | ema1 = ema(hlc3, ema1_period) 28 | ema2 = ema(hlc3, ema2_period) 29 | ema3 = ema(hlc3, ema3_period) 30 | 31 | enter_long = (rising(ema1, 1) and rising(ema2, 1) and rising(ema3, 1)) 32 | exit_long = not enter_long 33 | enter_short = (falling(ema1, 1) and falling(ema2, 1) and falling(ema3, 1)) 34 | exit_short = not enter_short 35 | 36 | strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, when=enter_long) 37 | strategy.close("Long", when=exit_long) 38 | if (not long_only) 39 | strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, when=enter_short) 40 | strategy.close("Short", when=exit_short) 41 | 42 | // ____ SL 43 | 44 | sl_long = strategy.position_avg_price * (1- (slp/100)) 45 | sl_short = strategy.position_avg_price * (1 + (slp/100)) 46 | if (use_sl) 47 | strategy.exit(id="SL", from_entry="Long", stop=sl_long) 48 | strategy.exit(id="SL", from_entry="Short", stop=sl_short) 49 | 50 | // ____ Plots 51 | 52 | colors = 53 | enter_long ? #27D600 : 54 | enter_short ? #E30202 : 55 | color.orange 56 | 57 | ema1_plot = plot(ema1, color=colors) 58 | ema2_plot = plot(ema2, color=colors) 59 | ema3_plot = plot(ema3, color=colors) 60 | fill(ema1_plot, ema3_plot, color=colors, transp=50) 61 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /.gitignore: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # Byte-compiled / optimized / DLL files 2 | __pycache__/ 3 | *.py[cod] 4 | *$py.class 5 | 6 | # C extensions 7 | *.so 8 | 9 | # Distribution / packaging 10 | .Python 11 | build/ 12 | develop-eggs/ 13 | dist/ 14 | downloads/ 15 | eggs/ 16 | .eggs/ 17 | lib/ 18 | lib64/ 19 | parts/ 20 | sdist/ 21 | var/ 22 | wheels/ 23 | pip-wheel-metadata/ 24 | share/python-wheels/ 25 | *.egg-info/ 26 | .installed.cfg 27 | *.egg 28 | MANIFEST 29 | 30 | # PyInstaller 31 | # Usually these files are written by a python script from a template 32 | # before PyInstaller builds the exe, so as to inject date/other infos into it. 33 | *.manifest 34 | *.spec 35 | 36 | # Installer logs 37 | pip-log.txt 38 | pip-delete-this-directory.txt 39 | 40 | # Unit test / coverage reports 41 | htmlcov/ 42 | .tox/ 43 | .nox/ 44 | .coverage 45 | .coverage.* 46 | .cache 47 | nosetests.xml 48 | coverage.xml 49 | *.cover 50 | *.py,cover 51 | .hypothesis/ 52 | .pytest_cache/ 53 | 54 | # Translations 55 | *.mo 56 | *.pot 57 | 58 | # Django stuff: 59 | *.log 60 | local_settings.py 61 | db.sqlite3 62 | db.sqlite3-journal 63 | 64 | # Flask stuff: 65 | instance/ 66 | .webassets-cache 67 | 68 | # Scrapy stuff: 69 | .scrapy 70 | 71 | # Sphinx documentation 72 | docs/_build/ 73 | 74 | # PyBuilder 75 | target/ 76 | 77 | # Jupyter Notebook 78 | .ipynb_checkpoints 79 | 80 | # IPython 81 | profile_default/ 82 | ipython_config.py 83 | 84 | # pyenv 85 | .python-version 86 | 87 | # pipenv 88 | # According to pypa/pipenv#598, it is recommended to include Pipfile.lock in version control. 89 | # However, in case of collaboration, if having platform-specific dependencies or dependencies 90 | # having no cross-platform support, pipenv may install dependencies that don't work, or not 91 | # install all needed dependencies. 92 | #Pipfile.lock 93 | 94 | # PEP 582; used by e.g. github.com/David-OConnor/pyflow 95 | __pypackages__/ 96 | 97 | # Celery stuff 98 | celerybeat-schedule 99 | celerybeat.pid 100 | 101 | # SageMath parsed files 102 | *.sage.py 103 | 104 | # Environments 105 | .env 106 | .venv 107 | env/ 108 | venv/ 109 | ENV/ 110 | env.bak/ 111 | venv.bak/ 112 | 113 | # Spyder project settings 114 | .spyderproject 115 | .spyproject 116 | 117 | # Rope project settings 118 | .ropeproject 119 | 120 | # mkdocs documentation 121 | /site 122 | 123 | # mypy 124 | .mypy_cache/ 125 | .dmypy.json 126 | dmypy.json 127 | 128 | # Pyre type checker 129 | .pyre/ 130 | df_signals.xlsx 131 | df_rets.xlsx 132 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /README.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # What's this? 2 | A repository for reviewing strategy ideas implemented in [QunatCT App](https://app.quantct.com/). Each idea has the following documents: 3 | - A simply structured text file for introducing the idea and its formulation. 4 | - A pine script implementation for TradingView. 5 | - Some graphs and backtest performance metrics. 6 | 7 | # What's the outcome? 8 | The outcome of this work is to show that: 9 | 1. Strategy ideas used in [QuantCT App](https://app.quantct.com/) are profitable. 10 | 1. The probability of having a winning trade and it's expected(average) return, if using [QuantCT Screeners](https://app.quantct.com/screeners). 11 | 12 | In addition, and built from those "Yes/No"s, we will have a valubale knowledge base of many trading ideas that PROBABLY won't work, along with some PROBABLY profitable ones! 13 | 14 | # How ideas are tested? 15 | ## For Outcome (1) 16 | We want to answer the following question by means of specific statistical tests: 17 | 18 | > Does this idea have any predictive power (i.e. profitability in future), with a "High Enough Probability" (HEP)? 19 | 20 | The HEP here is 0.05 p-value, 0.95 significanse, above "+2 x Sigma" of histogram of mean returns, or simply 95% probability - All of them are same thing. 21 | 22 | To do so, each strategy idea is backtested on BTCUSDT starting from 2018-01-01 (a big and available market crash on Binance exchange) to 2020-12-30. 23 | 24 | Test details are as follows: 25 | - All tests have $ 100K on initial cash, and the order amount is 1 BTC. 26 | - A backtest is performed on the data mentioned above. Timeframe is based on what the idea suggests (mainly 1d and 4h). 27 | - Applying "Monte Carlo Permutation" (MCP) test with 10,000 random (i.e. non profitable) tests on same data. 28 | - Giving a `Yes`, if the mean return of the implemented idea is above "+2 x Sigma" of histogram of mean returns of those 10K random tests, and a `No` otherwise. 29 | 30 | ## For outcome(2) 31 | Right now, you can assess each strategy idea in tradingview, as implemented in [QuantCT App](https://app.quantct.com/), and review its win rate, profit factor, etc., and decide to wether use its signals or not for each coin. 32 | 33 | In future releases, I will integrate such insightfull informations into the [QuantCT Screeners](https://app.quantct.com/screeners), so that you don't need to leave the app. 34 | 35 | # Why the word "Idea"? 36 | The trading/strategy idea is merely Enter/Exit rules, without any risk/money management and without any optimization. If the bare idea is profitable, it has merit of strategy development and optimization efforts. 37 | 38 | So, you should _NOT_ blindely follow screener or alert outputs. at least you should consider proper risk and money management for your trade setups. 39 | 40 | I will publish several tutorial videos about how to properly use [QuantCT Screeners](https://app.quantct.com/screeners) on [QuantCT youtube channel](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmNmuYbCVWrCluVGqX4XMyA). 41 | 42 | # Some FAQs: 43 | ### Does a `No` result in statistical tests means a useless idea? 44 | > Of course NOT! 45 | > 46 | >I have several profitable strategies based on `No` ideas! It just means that this implementation, on this instrument, with this timeframe, won't be profitable with 95% probability. 47 | > 48 | > Maybe it's got a bad luck based on test data, maybe a simple risk management rule elevates it's performance considerably, or any other reason. 49 | > 50 | > However, it's still a wise decision to concentrate on `Yes` ones first! 51 | 52 | ### How can I find `Yes` ones for all other coins and timeframes? 53 | > This is an under development service of the [QuantCT App](https://app.quantct.com/)! 54 | 55 | ### Do you have a similar work for fully optimized trading strategies? 56 | > Not, `YET`. Maybe a future feature of the [QuantCT App](https://app.quantct.com/). 57 | 58 | ### What's the scientific background of this work? 59 | > Mainly statistical inference. 60 | 61 | ### Any reference about this method? 62 | > The book "Evidence-based Technical Analysis". 63 | 64 | ### Why you do this? 65 | > Because I believe you have the _right_ to know what would be the result of using a screener or a signaling/alerting service! 66 | > 67 | > A screener which only combines indicators without giving any insight on the future results, is both useless and dangerous! 68 | 69 | ### Why there is a limited set of strategies ideas in QuantCT screeners? 70 | > Because there are several _dynamic-but-insightless_ crypto screeners right now. 71 | > 72 | > Also, most traders (if not all of them!) ultimately want to trade profitably, rather than struggling with unlimited possible combinations of insightless dynamic screeners. 73 | 74 | # Who are you? 75 | ![Amin Saqi](https://stackexchange.com/users/flair/2030508.png) 76 | * Software Engineer. 77 | * Professional crypto algotrader. 78 | * Instructor of crypto algotrading. 79 | * Algorithmic artist. 80 | * Founder of https://quantinvestor.ir 81 | * Founder of https://algoart-gallery.com 82 | * Founder of https://quantct.com 83 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /LICENSE: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Apache License 2 | Version 2.0, January 2004 3 | http://www.apache.org/licenses/ 4 | 5 | TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR USE, REPRODUCTION, AND DISTRIBUTION 6 | 7 | 1. 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