├── CHANGELOG ├── LICENSE.md ├── README.md ├── cik_benchmark ├── __init__.py ├── base.py ├── baselines │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── base.py │ ├── chronos.py │ ├── direct_prompt.py │ ├── hf_utils │ │ └── dp_hf_api.py │ ├── lag_llama.py │ ├── llm_processes.py │ ├── moirai.py │ ├── naive.py │ ├── r_forecast.py │ ├── statsmodels.py │ ├── timegen.py │ ├── timellm.py │ ├── unitime.py │ └── utils.py ├── config.py ├── data │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── dominicks │ │ ├── __init__.py │ │ └── grocer_sales_influences.json │ ├── montreal_fire │ │ ├── __init__.py │ │ ├── data_acquisition.ipynb │ │ └── load.py │ └── pems.py ├── evaluation.py ├── memorization_mitigation.py ├── metrics │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── constraints.py │ ├── crps.py │ ├── roi_metric.py │ └── scaling_cache.py ├── tasks │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── bivariate_categorical_causal.py │ ├── causal_chambers.py │ ├── constrained_forecasts.py │ ├── electricity_tasks.py │ ├── fred_county_tasks.py │ ├── montreal_fire │ │ ├── __init__.py │ │ ├── analogy.py │ │ ├── causal.py │ │ ├── short_history.py │ │ └── utils.py │ ├── nn5_tasks.py │ ├── nsrdb_tasks.py │ ├── pems_tasks.py │ ├── pred_change_tasks.py │ ├── predictable_constraints_real_data.py │ ├── predictable_grocer_shocks.py │ ├── predictable_spikes_in_pred.py │ ├── predictable_stl_shocks.py │ ├── sensor_maintenance.py │ ├── solar_tasks.py │ └── traffic_tasks.py ├── utils │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── cache │ │ ├── __init__.py │ │ ├── disk_cache.py │ │ └── lock.py │ ├── causal.py │ └── plot.py └── window_selection.py ├── compile_roi_results.py ├── experiments ├── README.md ├── direct-prompt-models │ ├── cc-gpt4o-ctx_c1.json │ ├── cc-gpt4o-mini-ctx_c1.json │ ├── cc-gpt4o-mini-noctx_c1.json │ ├── cc-gpt4o-noctx_c1.json │ ├── cc-llama31-405b-ctx-temp10_c1.json │ ├── cc-llama31-405b-no-ctx-temp10_c1.json │ ├── openrouter_llama_70b_instruct_ctx_c1.json │ ├── openrouter_llama_70b_instruct_noctx_c1.json │ ├── openrouter_llama_8b_instruct_ctx_c1.json │ ├── openrouter_llama_8b_instruct_noctx_c1.json │ ├── openrouter_mixtral_8x7b_instruct_ctx_c1.json │ ├── openrouter_mixtral_8x7b_instruct_noctx_c1.json │ ├── qwen_7b_instruct_ctx_g2.json │ └── qwen_7b_instruct_noctx_g2.json ├── foundation-models │ ├── chronos_base_g1.json │ ├── chronos_large_g1.json │ ├── chronos_mini_g1.json │ ├── chronos_small_g1.json │ ├── chronos_tiny_g1.json │ ├── lag_llama_g1.json │ ├── moirai_base_g1.json │ ├── moirai_large_g1.json │ ├── moirai_small_g1.json │ └── timegen_c1.json ├── llmp-models │ ├── llama3-70b-ctx_g8.json │ ├── llama3-70b-instruct-ctx_g8.json │ ├── llama3-70b-instruct-noctx_g8.json │ ├── llama3-70b-noctx_g8.json │ ├── llama3-8b-ctx_g1.json │ ├── llama3-8b-instruct-ctx_g1.json │ ├── llama3-8b-instruct-noctx_g1.json │ ├── llama3-8b-noctx_g1.json │ ├── mixtral-8x7b-ctx_g2.json │ ├── mixtral-8x7b-instruct-ctx_g2.json │ ├── mixtral-8x7b-instruct-noctx_g2.json │ └── mixtral-8x7b-noctx_g2.json ├── make_summary.sh ├── multimodal-models │ ├── timellm-ctx_g1.json │ ├── timellm-noctx_g1.json │ ├── unitime-ctx_g1.json │ └── unitime-noctx_g1.json └── statistical-models │ ├── r_forecast_c40.json │ └── statsmodels_c40.json ├── notebooks ├── causal_chambers.ipynb ├── create_hf_dataset.ipynb └── crps_covariance.ipynb ├── precompute_scaling_cache.py ├── pyproject.toml ├── requirements-dev.txt ├── requirements-r.txt ├── requirements.txt ├── results ├── all_tasks.json ├── results_complete.README └── results_complete.csv ├── run_baselines.py ├── scripts ├── compile_stderr_results.py ├── compute_rcrps_with_hf_dataset.py ├── results_to_latex.py └── results_to_rank.py ├── simple_task_example.py ├── task_report.py ├── test_plot.py └── tests ├── bootstrap_datasets.py ├── test_baseline_consistency.py ├── test_cache.py ├── test_causal_chambers.py ├── test_crps.py ├── test_datetime_utils.py ├── test_random_generation.py └── test_task_consistency.py /CHANGELOG: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 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