├── CONTRIBUTING.md ├── CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md ├── LICENSE └── README.md /CONTRIBUTING.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # Contributing 2 | 3 | You are welcome to contribute and extend the list with new papers/knowledge. Please try to continue with the given classification (contractual/non-contractual) unless there is a novel subcategory that should be created. Let's explore the world of churn/CLV modelling and share the wisdom with scholars and practitioners alike! 4 | 5 | ## Guidelines 6 | 7 | * Follow the existing structure (model name in bold (year) - [doi_link] [pdf_link]), see the raw markdown file before making changes 8 | * Add one paper/tool per commit 9 | * Sort papers chronologically 10 | * No links to paid software tools! Open source only 11 | * The citation style used is APA7, remove the DOI link (it is added as a link) 12 | * Search previous suggestions before making a new one, as yours may be a duplicate. 13 | * Check your spelling and grammar 14 | * Remove any trailing whitespace 15 | * Send a Pull Request with the reason why the paper/article is awesome -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | 2 | # Contributor Covenant Code of Conduct 3 | 4 | ## Our Pledge 5 | 6 | In the interest of fostering an open and welcoming environment, we as 7 | contributors and maintainers pledge to make participation in our project and 8 | our community a harassment-free experience for everyone, regardless of age, body 9 | size, disability, ethnicity, sex characteristics, gender identity and expression, 10 | level of experience, education, socio-economic status, nationality, personal 11 | appearance, race, religion, or sexual identity and orientation. 12 | 13 | ## Our Standards 14 | 15 | Examples of behavior that contributes to creating a positive environment 16 | include: 17 | 18 | * Using welcoming and inclusive language 19 | * Being respectful of differing viewpoints and experiences 20 | * Gracefully accepting constructive criticism 21 | * Focusing on what is best for the community 22 | * Showing empathy towards other community members 23 | 24 | Examples of unacceptable behavior by participants include: 25 | 26 | * The use of sexualized language or imagery and unwelcome sexual attention or 27 | advances 28 | * Trolling, insulting/derogatory comments, and personal or political attacks 29 | * Public or private harassment 30 | * Publishing others' private information, such as a physical or electronic 31 | address, without explicit permission 32 | * Other conduct which could reasonably be considered inappropriate in a 33 | professional setting 34 | 35 | ## Our Responsibilities 36 | 37 | Project maintainers are responsible for clarifying the standards of acceptable 38 | behavior and are expected to take appropriate and fair corrective action in 39 | response to any instances of unacceptable behavior. 40 | 41 | Project maintainers have the right and responsibility to remove, edit, or 42 | reject comments, commits, code, wiki edits, issues, and other contributions 43 | that are not aligned to this Code of Conduct, or to ban temporarily or 44 | permanently any contributor for other behaviors that they deem inappropriate, 45 | threatening, offensive, or harmful. 46 | 47 | ## Scope 48 | 49 | This Code of Conduct applies within all project spaces, and it also applies when 50 | an individual is representing the project or its community in public spaces. 51 | Examples of representing a project or community include using an official 52 | project e-mail address, posting via an official social media account, or acting 53 | as an appointed representative at an online or offline event. 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Buy 'Til You Die)](#non-contractual-setting-models-aka-buy-til-you-die) 13 | - [Extensions](#extensions) 14 | - [Non-Probabilistic CLV Models](#non-probabilistic-clv-models) 15 | - [Additional Valuable Sources](#additional-valuable-sources) 16 | - [Software Packages and Tools](#software-packages-and-tools) 17 | - [Python](#python) 18 | - [R](#r) 19 | 20 | ## Models and Papers 21 | 22 | ### Contractual Setting Models 23 | 24 | Probabilistic models predicting churn and CLV in scenarios where transactions happen on fixed time periods, e.g. weekly, monthly. 25 | 26 | * **Beta-Geometric (BG)** (2007) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1002/dir.20074) [[pdf]](https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Fader_hardie_jim_07.pdf) 27 | > Fader, P. S., & Hardie, B. G. S. (2007). How to Project Customer Retention. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 21(1), 76–90. 28 | 29 | * **Usage-Renewal Model** (2013) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2013.0786) [[pdf]](https://www.hbs.edu/ris/PublicationFiles/ascarza_hardie_mktsci_13_68c64a95-bdae-4310-8330-954da804c2b8.pdf) 30 | > Ascarza, E., & Hardie, B.G.S. (2013). A Joint Model of Usage and Churn in Contractual Settings. Marketing Science, 32(4), 570-590. 31 | 32 | * **Beta-discrete-Weibull (BdW)** (2018) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intmar.2018.01.002) [[pdf]](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1016/j.intmar.2018.01.002) 33 | > Fader, P. S., Hardie, B. G. S., Liu, Y., Davin, J., & Steenburgh, T. (2018). “How to Project Customer Retention” Revisited: The Role of Duration Dependence. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 43, 1–16. 34 | 35 | 36 | ### Non-Contractual Setting Models (a.k.a. Buy 'Til You Die) 37 | 38 | Probabilistic models predicting churn and CLV in scenarios where transactions appear spontaneously at any given time. 39 | 40 | * **Negative Binomial Distribution (NBD)** (1959) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.2307/2985810) [[pdf]](https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2985810.pdf) 41 | > Ehrenberg, A. S. (1959). The pattern of consumer purchases. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 8(1), 26–41. 42 | 43 | * **Pareto/NBD** (1987) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.1.1) [[pdf]](https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2631608.pdf) 44 | > Schmittlein, D. C., Morrison, D. G., & Colombo, R. (1987). Counting your customers: Who-are they and what will they do next? Management Science, 33(1), 1–24. 45 | 46 | * **BG/NBD** (2005) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1040.0098) [[pdf]](http://brucehardie.com/papers/018/fader_et_al_mksc_05.pdf) 47 | > Fader, P. S., Hardie, B. G., & Lee, K. L. (2005). “Counting your Customers” the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model. Marketing Science, 24(2), 275–284. 48 | 49 | * **BG/NBD with time-invariant contextual factors** (2007) - [[pdf]](http://brucehardie.com/notes/019/time_invariant_covariates.pdf) 50 | > Fader, P. S., & Hardie, B. G. S. (2007). Incorporating Time-Invariant Covariates into the Pareto/NBD and BG/NBD Models 51 | 52 | * **Pareto/NBD with time-invariant contextual factors** (2007) - [[pdf]](http://brucehardie.com/notes/019/time_invariant_covariates.pdf) 53 | > Fader, P. S., & Hardie, B. G. S. (2007). Incorporating Time-Invariant Covariates into the Pareto/NBD and BG/NBD Models 54 | 55 | * **MBG/NBD** (2007) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2006.12.005) [[pdf]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167811607000171/pdfft?isDTMRedir=true&download=true) 56 | > Batislam, E. P., Denizel, M., & Filiztekin, A. (2007). Empirical validation and comparison of models for customer base analysis. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 24(3), 201–209. 57 | 58 | * **Pareto/NBD (HB)** (2007) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1109/ICNC.2007.728) [[pdf]](https://csdl-downloads.ieeecomputer.org/proceedings/icnc/2007/2875/02/28750505.pdf?Expires=1644938774&Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9jc2RsLWRvd25sb2Fkcy5pZWVlY29tcHV0ZXIub3JnL3Byb2NlZWRpbmdzL2ljbmMvMjAwNy8yODc1LzAyLzI4NzUwNTA1LnBkZiIsIkNvbmRpdGlvbiI6eyJEYXRlTGVzc1RoYW4iOnsiQVdTOkVwb2NoVGltZSI6MTY0NDkzODc3NH19fV19&Signature=tmHnuo9llkidSnMA5Trd-FaAr70V3OGKFcw9pevnN8vwZrlsdUenRNcR8AVqEtGjSGEmQ~D7VKRB8FYP9Fok8qPbLWK3ziVVgPwbuBsD-CCVnE7b13fDKLaCVQlZesPWOa5wKadUWoP34NTL3~Q-HqqxaLlSurMaBfpYHpEpFQHykOmJk~98khgRuoqWnGoDLowQHF3GDixbdP1Fr0hwUQVzbvGI4sEZRJc0iZFcjbQPCSRVEGF8xQL0A2H7atsDcZue2psEiwlZHIhsrjqLD4Ezt5OeVi7kCuXvYhsX71EGqovefuR0Crg~ZPhuZLP4Hwn8MMHoCZXVzZYpKmb58g__&Key-Pair-Id=K12PMWTCQBDMDT) 59 | > Ma, S.-H., & Liu, J.-L. (2007). The MCMC approach for solving the pareto/NBD model and possible extensions. Third International Conference on Natural Computation (ICNC 2007). 60 | 61 | * **Pareto/NBD (Abe)** (2009) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1090.0502) [[pdf]](http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2008/2008cf537.pdf) 62 | > Abe, M. (2009). “Counting your Customers” One by One: A Hierarchical Bayes Extension to the Pareto/NBD Model. Marketing Science, 28(3), 541–553. 63 | 64 | * **BG/BB (Beta-Geometric/Beta-Binomial)** (2010) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1100.0580) [[pdf]](http://www.brucehardie.com/papers/020/fader_et_al_mksc_10.pdf) 65 | > Fader, P. S., Hardie, B. G., & Shang, J. (2010). Customer-base analysis in a discrete-time noncontractual setting. Marketing Science, 29(6), 1086–1108. 66 | 67 | * **Gamma/Gompertz/NBD** (2012) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1461) [[pdf]](https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1461) 68 | > Bemmaor, A. C., & Glady, N. (2012). Modeling purchasing behavior with sudden “death”: A flexible customer lifetime model. Management Science, 58(5), 1012–1021. 69 | 70 | * **Pareto/GGG (GammaGammaGamma)** (2016) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2015.0963) [[pdf]](http://www.reutterer.com/papers/platzer&reutterer_pareto-ggg_2016.pdf) 71 | > Platzer, M., & Reutterer, T. (2016). Ticking away the moments: Timing regularity helps to better predict customer activity. Marketing Science, 35(5), 779–799. 72 | 73 | * **(M)BG/CNBD-k ** (2021) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2020.09.002) [[pdf]](http://www.reutterer.com/papers/reutterer&platzer&schroeder_2021.pdf) 74 | > Reutterer, T., Platzer, M., & Schröder, N. (2021). Leveraging Purchase Regularity for Predicting Customer Behavior the Easy Way. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 38(1), 194–215. 75 | 76 | * **Pareto/NBD with time-varying contextual factors** (2021) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2020.1254) [[pdf]](https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/197236/1/mksc.2020.1254.pdf) 77 | > Bachmann, P., Meierer, M., & Näf, J. (2021). The role of time-varying contextual factors in latent attrition models for customer base analysis. Marketing Science, 40(4), 783–809. 78 | 79 | 80 | ### Extensions 81 | * **RFM to RFMC (Clumpiness)** (2015) - [[doi]](https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2014.0873) [[pdf]](https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/mksc.2014.0873) 82 | > Zhang, Y., Bradlow, E.T., & Small, D. S. (2015). Predicting Customer Value Using Clumpiness: From RFM to RFMC. Marketing Science, 34(2), 195-208. 83 | 84 | ### Non-Probabilistic CLV Models 85 | 86 | * To be added (e.g. ML/DL approaches) 87 | 88 | ### Additional Valuable Sources 89 | 90 | * [Bruce Hardie's Notes](http://brucehardie.com/notes/) 91 | 92 | ## Software Packages and Tools 93 | 94 | List of model implemenations and software tools in various programming languages. 95 | 96 | ### Python 97 | 98 | * [Lifetimes](https://github.com/CamDavidsonPilon/lifetimes) - Python implementation of BTYD models, namely BG, BG/BB, GG, MBG and Pareto/NBD (not maintained, succeded by PyMC-Marketing) 99 | * [PyMC-Marketing](https://github.com/pymc-labs/pymc-marketing) - Bayesian marketing toolbox in PyMC. Media Mix (MMM), customer lifetime value (CLV), buy-till-you-die (BTYD) models and more. 100 | 101 | ### R 102 | 103 | * [BTYD](https://github.com/ghuiber/BTYD) - The original R implementation of BTYD models, namely BG/BB, BG/NBD, P/NBD-GG 104 | * [BTYDplus](https://github.com/mplatzer/BTYDplus) - Extension of the BTYD package with NBD, MBG/NBD, (M)BG/CNBD-k, Pareto/NBD (HB), Pareto/NBD (Abe) and Pareto/GGG 105 | * [**CLVTools**](https://github.com/bachmannpatrick/CLVTools) ([web](https://www.clvtools.com)) - The most recent and optimized R package for BTYD models including the newest additions to the field 106 | * [foretell](https://github.com/sriharitn/foretell) - Implementation of contractual models by Fader, Hardie et al. 107 | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------