├── .gitignore ├── LICENSE ├── README.md ├── data ├── C1_stem_correlations.csv ├── FinStress.csv ├── alternative_measures │ ├── Financial Fragility Database Stata.dta │ ├── cleaned │ │ ├── fin_frag_gfdd.csv │ │ ├── laeven_valencia_banking_crisis.csv │ │ ├── laeven_valencia_start_end.csv │ │ ├── reinhart_rogoff.csv │ │ └── rommer_romer.csv │ ├── laeven_valencia_clean.R │ ├── raw │ │ ├── Duprey et al - Crises Dating - dataset.xls │ │ └── SYSTEMIC BANKING CRISES DATABASE.xlsx │ ├── reinhart_rogoff.R │ └── romer_romer_create.R ├── kpca_5_c2_cleaned.csv ├── random_forest_var_imp_C1.csv ├── random_forest_var_imp_C2.csv └── version1 │ ├── C1_stem_correlations.csv │ ├── FinStress.csv │ ├── kpca_eigen_10.csv │ ├── random_forest_var_imp_C1.csv │ ├── random_forest_var_imp_C2.csv │ ├── results_kpca_raw.csv │ └── results_kpca_rescaled.csv ├── perceptions_compare.png ├── source ├── README.md ├── clean_save_finstress.R ├── gather_eiu.R ├── old │ ├── doc_term_eiu.R │ ├── kernal_to_stems.R │ ├── kernel_eiu.R │ ├── pca_kpca.R │ └── plots_v1.R ├── parse_extract_eiu.R ├── pca_kpca │ ├── README.md │ ├── kpca_3.R │ ├── kpca_3.Rout │ ├── kpca_4.R │ ├── kpca_4.Rout │ ├── kpca_5.R │ ├── kpca_5.Rout │ ├── kpca_6.R │ ├── kpca_6.Rout │ ├── kpca_pre_2008_reanalysis.R │ ├── kpca_pre_2008_reanalysis.Rout │ ├── makefile │ ├── misc_old │ │ └── spectral_clustering.R │ ├── pca_bag_of_words.R │ ├── pca_bag_of_words.Rout │ ├── preprocessed_data │ │ └── eiu_texts_from_2003.rda │ ├── raw_data_output │ │ ├── 5_strings │ │ │ ├── kpca_5_eigen_10.csv │ │ │ ├── results_kpca_5_raw.csv │ │ │ └── results_kpca_5_rescaled.csv │ │ ├── non_5_strings │ │ │ ├── kpca_3_eigen_10.csv │ │ │ ├── kpca_4_eigen_10.csv │ │ │ ├── kpca_6_eigen_10.csv │ │ │ ├── results_kpca_3_raw.csv │ │ │ ├── results_kpca_3_rescaled.csv │ │ │ ├── results_kpca_4_raw.csv │ │ │ ├── results_kpca_4_rescaled.csv │ │ │ ├── results_kpca_6_raw.csv │ │ │ └── results_kpca_6_rescaled.csv │ │ ├── pca_bag_1stComponent.csv │ │ └── pre_crisis │ │ │ ├── kpca_5_eigen_10.csv │ │ │ ├── results_kpca_5_raw.csv │ │ │ └── results_kpca_5_rescaled.csv │ ├── setup │ │ ├── kpca_eiu_function.R │ │ └── setup.R │ └── z_kernel_random_forest.R └── preprocess_eiu.R └── summary_paper ├── README.md ├── analysis ├── 1st_vs_2nd_comp.R ├── application_regression.R ├── compare_to_ecb_fsi.R ├── compare_to_financial_fragility.R ├── compare_to_pca_bag_of_words.R ├── compare_to_z-score.R ├── developed_vs_developing.R ├── elect_volatility_crisis.R ├── finstress_lv_fit_comparision.R ├── graphically_compare_measures.R ├── kpca_n_character_kernel_compare.R ├── min_mean_max_texts.R ├── old │ ├── jump_diffusion_plots.R │ ├── poll_finstress_data_creator.R │ └── poll_finstress_explore.R ├── other_data │ └── Dataset-of-Electoral-Volatility-and-its-internal-components-in-Western-Europe-1945-2015.xlsx ├── plot_random_forest_words_results.R ├── random_forest_quant_indicators.R ├── scree_plot.R └── stem_correlations.R ├── figures ├── 1st_vs_2nd_component_selected.pdf ├── austria_compare.pdf ├── canada_compare.pdf ├── compare_impared.pdf ├── compare_jump_diffusion_basic.pdf ├── compare_jump_to_crisis.pdf ├── compare_liquid.pdf ├── compare_to_lv_rr.pdf ├── compare_to_lv_rr_2.pdf ├── compare_to_lv_rr_short.pdf ├── compare_to_pca_1.pdf ├── compare_to_pca_2.pdf ├── compare_to_z-score.pdf ├── dev_vs_developing.pdf ├── elect_vol_predict.pdf ├── election_error.tex ├── election_timing_crisis_comp.pdf ├── ff_corr_matrix.pdf ├── fin_fragility_compare.pdf ├── greece_compare.pdf ├── iceland_compare.pdf ├── ireland_compare.pdf ├── kazakhstan_compare.pdf ├── kpca_n_lenth_compare.png ├── post_elect_loss.pdf ├── rf_partial_dependence.pdf ├── rf_stem_importance.pdf ├── rf_variable_imp.pdf ├── scree_plot.pdf ├── switzerland_compare.pdf ├── uk_compare.pdf └── us_compare.pdf ├── main.bib ├── old └── summary_paper.Rmd ├── sample_min_max_texts ├── max_Brazil_2009-04-01.md ├── max_Iceland_2010-05-01.md ├── max_Ireland_2011-04-01.md ├── max_Latvia_2010-08-01.md ├── 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