├── 2023_surveys ├── .DS_Store ├── 2023-05-09-US-EEP-TikTok.csv ├── 2023-04-27-US-EEP-AI-and-Productivity-Growth.csv ├── 2023-09-29-US-EEP-Subsidizing-Green-Technology.csv ├── 2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-Market-Power.csv ├── 2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-the-Labor-Market.csv ├── 2023-09-29-US-EEP-Responses-To-Market-Power.csv ├── 2023-01-18-US-EEP-Non-Compete-Clauses.csv └── 2023-06-21-US-EEP-Junk-Fees.csv ├── README.md ├── LICENSE ├── 2021_surveys ├── 2021-03-09-US-EEP-Pricing-Emissions.csv ├── 2020-12-22-US-EEP-Antitrust-Action.csv ├── 2021-03-23-US-EEP-Tackling-Obesity.csv ├── 2020-12-08-US-EEP-Personnel-Economics.csv ├── 2021-02-23-US-EEP-Short-Positions.csv ├── 2020-10-13-US-EEP-Tax-Proposals.csv ├── 2021-01-13-US-EEP-After-Brexit.csv ├── 2021-02-08-US-EEP-Coronavirus-Relief.csv ├── 2020-10-06-US-EEP-Economic-Recovery.csv ├── 2021-02-02-US-EEP-The-US-Minimum-Wage.csv ├── 2020-11-03-US-EEP-Antitrust-in-the-Digital-Economy.csv └── 2020-11-24-US-EEP-Student-Debt-Forgiveness.csv ├── extract_pca.ipynb ├── survey_results_2015.json └── survey_results_2014.json /2023_surveys/.DS_Store: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/csaid/economist_poll/HEAD/2023_surveys/.DS_Store -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /README.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | economist_poll 2 | ============== 3 | 4 | Data from the IGM expert panel poll and code for extracting it. Used in http://www.whichfamouseconomistareyoumostsimilarto.com 5 | 6 | The original data can be found on the IGM Forum website. 7 | 8 | http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel 9 | 10 | If you use this data, be sure to give them some credit for taking the time to collect it. 11 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /LICENSE: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | The MIT License (MIT) 2 | 3 | Copyright (c) 2013 Chris Said 4 | 5 | Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of 6 | this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in 7 | the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to 8 | use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of 9 | the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, 10 | subject to the following conditions: 11 | 12 | The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all 13 | copies or substantial portions of the Software. 14 | 15 | THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR 16 | IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS 17 | FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR 18 | COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER 19 | IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN 20 | CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE. 21 | 22 | %------------------- 23 | 24 | The original data can be found on the IGM Forum website. 25 | http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel 26 | If you use this data, be sure to give them some credit for taking the time to collect it. 27 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2021-03-09-US-EEP-Pricing-Emissions.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,Sound policy would involve increasing significantly the currently near-zero price of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Strongly Agree,8,"The science is very clear. However, carbon tax by itself won't be enough. It should combined with meaningful direct support for clean techs." 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Strongly Agree,10, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Strongly Agree,9, 5 | Autor,David,Strongly Agree,10,The most important first step towards slowing global warming. 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Agree,3, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Strongly Agree,7, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Strongly Agree,10, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Strongly Agree,9, 10 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Strongly Agree,10, 12 | Cutler,David,Strongly Agree,6, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Strongly Agree,9, 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Strongly Agree,3,The price should be raised much closer to the point at which the negative externality of C02-induced climate change is internalized. 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Strongly Agree,9,Carbon pricing is not the only sound policy. Regulation may play a roll as can cap and trade. 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Strongly Agree,8, 17 | Einav,Liran,No Opinion,, 18 | Fair,Ray,Strongly Agree,10, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Strongly Agree,8, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Agree,6, 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Strongly Agree,9,Needs to be global 22 | Greenstone,Michael,Strongly Agree,9, 23 | Hall,Robert,Strongly Agree,8, 24 | Hart,Oliver,Strongly Agree,10, 25 | Holmström,Bengt,Strongly Agree,4, 26 | Hoxby,Caroline,Uncertain,6, 27 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,8, 28 | Judd,Kenneth,Strongly Agree,8,I agree if we mean the world price. This is not rational if ONLY only US (or California) does this. World problems require world policies. 29 | Kaplan,Steven,No Opinion,, 30 | Kashyap,Anil,Strongly Agree,10,"Won't be enough, need more energy sources that are not fossil fuel reliant too. " 31 | Klenow,Pete,Strongly Agree,10, 32 | Levin,Jonathan,Strongly Agree,6, 33 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,7, 34 | Nordhaus,William,Strongly Agree,9, 35 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Strongly Agree,10, 36 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,8, 37 | Samuelson,Larry,Strongly Agree,10,Bringing the private and social costs of emissions into line via taxes has short and long term efficiency benefits. 38 | Scheinkman,José,Strongly Agree,9, 39 | Schmalensee,Richard,Strongly Agree,8,"The price is zero in most of the country, and fossil fuels are still subsidized. Politicians would rather subsidize & regulate than tax." 40 | Shapiro,Carl,Strongly Agree,10, 41 | Shimer,Robert,Strongly Agree,8, 42 | Stock,James,Strongly Agree,9,"A price of ~$40 will make deep reductions in the power sector; elsewhere, it is helpful; but technology & other policies are needed too." 43 | Thaler,Richard,Strongly Agree,10, 44 | Udry,Christopher,Strongly Agree,10,Not a difficult question 45 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2020-12-22-US-EEP-Antitrust-Action.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,Requiring Facebook to divest WhatsApp and Instagram is likely to make society better off.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,,, 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Agree,5,Big tech has an oversized and negative effect on direction of technology. Reducing their size and economic/social power is a first remedy.,,, 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Uncertain,3,,,, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Uncertain,5,,,, 5 | Autor,David,Agree,5,My main hope is that forced breakup would deter other future anticompetitive merger attempts.,,, 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Did Not Answer,,,,, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Strongly Agree,6,,,, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,6,,,, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Did Not Answer,,,,, 10 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,,, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Uncertain,6,"Allowing those acquisitions a likely mistake, need a little more data on unscrambling the eggs. ",,, 12 | Cutler,David,Agree,5,,,, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,7,,,, 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,3,,,, 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Disagree,6,"When firms produce bads instead of goods, then competition leads to more bads, which is ...bad. A breakup could backfire. ",,, 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Agree,5,"In the short run, uncertain; in the long run, lower entry barriers and more competition make for innovation and consumer welfare.",,, 17 | Einav,Liran,Uncertain,1,,,, 18 | Fair,Ray,Uncertain,1,,,, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Agree,2,,,, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Uncertain,8,Many of the social ills one associates with Facebook might get worse with more competition leading to a race to the bottom (see Tiktok),,, 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Uncertain,5,,,, 22 | Greenstone,Michael,Uncertain,4,,,, 23 | Hall,Robert,Strongly Disagree,7,Standard IO theory says mergers of sellers of complements are good.,,, 24 | Hart,Oliver,Uncertain,6,Facebook is too powerful and so this might help. But it may be messy. Perhaps a better strategy is to stop future acquisitions.,,, 25 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,5,,,, 26 | Hoxby,Caroline,Agree,4,,,, 27 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,5,,,, 28 | Judd,Kenneth,Agree,6,I do not see any harm and too much economic power in the hands of one firm should be avoided.,,, 29 | Kaplan,Steven,Disagree,8,,,, 30 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,1,"So many competing considerations, and this not my area. Very curious to see if the most informed panelists think there is a clear answer. ",,, 31 | Klenow,Pete,Agree,2,,,, 32 | Levin,Jonathan,Uncertain,3,,,, 33 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,4,,,, 34 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,3,,,, 35 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Agree,4,,,, 36 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,6,,,, 37 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,8,"There are few obvious benefits from the common ownership, and potential gains from competition.",,, 38 | Scheinkman,José,Agree,7,,,, 39 | Schmalensee,Richard,Agree,3,"Probably, but omelettes are hard to unscramble, and failure of the spun-out firms could reduce consumer choice.",,, 40 | Shapiro,Carl,Did Not Answer,,,,, 41 | Shimer,Robert,Strongly Disagree,8,The direct benefits of forced divestment are likely minimal or non-existent. The cost from increased uncertainty are significant.,,, 42 | Stock,James,No Opinion,,,,, 43 | Thaler,Richard,Agree,4,I don’t know why these acquisitions were allowed. Could Amazon buy Walmart? Each could be sold for big bucks. ,,, 44 | Udry,Christopher,Did Not Answer,,,,, 45 | ,,,,,,, 46 | ,,,,,,, 47 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2023_surveys/2023-05-09-US-EEP-TikTok.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably negative impact on US innovation.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,"If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably positive impact on the profits of the big US tech companies.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Uncertain,3,"We should always be careful in blocking new technologies, hence my answer is ""uncertain"". But it is not clear what major (positive) innovation spillovers from TikTok are, and social media will have to be regulated. Regulations that also apply to US platforms would be better.",Agree,5,"Yes, unless they are also regulated and this is one reason why regulations that apply to all social media companies are better than just blocking TikTok." 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Uncertain,2,,Agree,2, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Disagree,7,,Agree,3, 5 | Autor,David,Disagree,1,,Agree,1, 6 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Disagree,4,,Uncertain,4, 7 | Bertrand,Marianne,Disagree,2,,Uncertain,2, 8 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Uncertain,8,,Uncertain,8, 9 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 10 | Chevalier,Judith,Disagree,3,,Agree,3, 11 | Cutler,David,Disagree,4,,Agree,5, 12 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,2,,Agree,4, 13 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,1,"Tik Tok is a significant social-media innovation. So, I agree. It may be appropriate to ban it on other grounds, like the potential for foreign monitoring of users.",Uncertain,1,I'm uncertain because I don't know which big-tech firms that provide or would develop popular substitutes. 14 | Edlin,Aaron,Strongly Disagree,7,"Not everything people use is good for them nor for society. Much social media is addictive, distracting, and lowers attention spans.",Agree,7, 15 | Eichengreen,Barry,Disagree,5,,Disagree,5, 16 | Einav,Liran,Agree,1,,Disagree,1, 17 | Fair,Ray,Disagree,5,,Disagree,5, 18 | Finkelstein,Amy,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 19 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 20 | Greenstone,Michael,Uncertain,3,,Agree,3, 21 | Hall,Robert,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 22 | Hart,Oliver,Disagree,5,,Agree,5, 23 | Holmström,Bengt,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5, 24 | Hoxby,Caroline,Disagree,10,,Disagree,10, 25 | Hoynes,Hilary,No Opinion,,,No Opinion,, 26 | Judd,Kenneth,No Opinion,,,No Opinion,, 27 | Kaplan,Steven,Disagree,3,,Agree,3, 28 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,3,Could go the other way if triggers a race to come up with the successor and maybe this will prove to be a blip anyway. ,Uncertain,7,"You have to also make an assumption about whether and how China might retaliate, that could swamp the direct effect of reducing competition. " 29 | Klenow,Pete,Disagree,3,,Uncertain,3, 30 | Levin,Jonathan,Disagree,4,"It would have geopolitical consequences, might chill certain types of investment, and would raise concerns about the government targeting individual companies. But US innovation is a broad category to measurably impact. ",Agree,4,It would eliminate a big competitor in social media 31 | Maskin,Eric,Uncertain,3,I don't know how much TikTok currently contributes to innovation.,Agree,4,TikTok seems to be taking quite a bit of business away from U.S. social media. A ban would give the American companies a chance to catch up. 32 | Nordhaus,William,Disagree,4,,Disagree,3, 33 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,2,,Agree,2, 34 | Saez,Emmanuel,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 35 | Samuelson,Larry,Disagree,5,"Competitors or new innovations are likely to fill the void. 36 | ",Agree,5, 37 | Scheinkman,José,No Opinion,,,Agree,6, 38 | Schmalensee,Richard,Disagree,3,I've seen nothing to suggest a measurable effect.,Disagree,5,"Some (e.g., Facebook) might be affected, but others (e.g., Apple) would clearly not be. ""The big US tech companies"" differ in many ways." 39 | Shapiro,Carl,Disagree,4,,Agree,3, 40 | Shimer,Robert,Uncertain,5,Competition can enhance or retard innovation,Agree,5, 41 | Stock,James,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 42 | Thaler,Richard,Disagree,1,,Uncertain,10, 43 | Udry,Christopher,Disagree,2,,Disagree,1, 44 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2021-03-23-US-EEP-Tackling-Obesity.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would improve social welfare more than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,"A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt, and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Agree,2,,Agree,2, 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Disagree,3,,Agree,3, 5 | Autor,David,No Opinion,,,No Opinion,, 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,3, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Uncertain,4,,Agree,5, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Uncertain,3,,Agree,3, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Disagree,5,,Agree,6, 10 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Uncertain,4,,No Opinion,,There are parallels to cigarette advertising research but not clear they are perfect. 12 | Cutler,David,Disagree,4,These policies are unlikely to be as effective.,Agree,4, 13 | Deaton,Angus,No Opinion,,Are we supposed to know and have evaluated empirical studies on these things?,No Opinion,,See previous comment 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,1,"Increasing the cost of obtaining calories, indiscriminately, could backfire by exacerbating inequalities or reducing healthy calorie intake.",Agree,1, 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,4,,Agree,5, 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Disagree,5,A very considerable amount of physical activity is needed to burn a few calories.,Uncertain,1,Likely to have the desired sign but be weak. 17 | Einav,Liran,Strongly Agree,1,,Agree,1, 18 | Fair,Ray,Agree,3,,Agree,1, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Uncertain,4,,Uncertain,4, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Disagree,6,"Losing weight requires reduction in calorie intake. Physical activity helps, but does not solve the problem of obesity.",Agree,6, 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1, 22 | Greenstone,Michael,Uncertain,2,,Uncertain,2, 23 | Hall,Robert,Uncertain,1,Science has not made much progress in understanding obesity,Disagree,3,Salt and fat are essential for survival. Kids can do without sugar. 24 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,5,,Agree,7, 25 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,3,,Strongly Agree,3, 26 | Hoxby,Caroline,Uncertain,7,DWL probably lower w phys activ but unclear if those incentive actually work.One cannot answer this q without solid evidence on efficacy.,Uncertain,10, 27 | Hoynes,Hilary,Uncertain,8,,Agree,6, 28 | Judd,Kenneth,Disagree,6,Weight is determined primarily by caloric intake. Obesity policy should focus on calories. Exercise helps improve general health.,Uncertain,5,"How do we define ""junk food""? Is Frosted Flakes (my childhood favorite) a junk food? Do we want to ban Tony the Tiger?" 29 | Kaplan,Steven,Uncertain,2,"There is so much we still do not know about the interaction of activity, diet and obesity, let alone what to try to incentivize.",Uncertain,2, 30 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,1,,Disagree,3, 31 | Klenow,Pete,Disagree,1,,Uncertain,1, 32 | Levin,Jonathan,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 33 | Maskin,Eric,Uncertain,5,Taxing junk food could conceivably be more effective against obesity than subsidizing exercise. But its incidence would fall on the poor.,Agree,7, 34 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,3,,Uncertain,1, 35 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,3,,Disagree,3, 36 | Saez,Emmanuel,Uncertain,4,,Agree,4, 37 | Samuelson,Larry,Uncertain,1,"Both policies are valuable, but it is difficult to identify one as most effective in improving social welfare.",Agree,8,Young consumers may be especially vulnerable to advertising; appropriate regulation would allow it to be effectively used. 38 | Scheinkman,José,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 39 | Schmalensee,Richard,Uncertain,6,The devil would be in the details of either approach.,Uncertain,7,"The definition of ""junk"" would be controversial and would affect product design in interesting ways." 40 | Shapiro,Carl,Uncertain,2,,Agree,7, 41 | Shimer,Robert,Disagree,3,Policies that increase the cost of calories are easier to implement and less prone to loopholes and manipulation,Uncertain,1, 42 | Stock,James,Agree,3,,Uncertain,4, 43 | Thaler,Richard,Uncertain,10,Details matter. ,Disagree,3, 44 | Udry,Christopher,Uncertain,2,,Agree,6,"Advertising seems to work, especially on kids." 45 | ,,,,,,, 46 | ,,,,,,, 47 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2020-12-08-US-EEP-Personnel-Economics.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,Our understanding of labor productivity has been much enhanced by accounting for monetary and promotion-based incentives within firms and related selection effects.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,"Large salaries for senior business executives are less a reflection of an individual’s current contribution to a firm’s overall performance than a ‘prize’ for those who put 2 | in the effort to achieve one of the top positions.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 3 | Acemoglu,Daron,Agree,6,"But norms, morale and non-monetary incentives matter greatly inside organizations, and monetary incentives can sometimes erode/disrupt them.",Agree,6,"Big caveat: that ""effort"" is often non-productive as well, e.g., networking, connections, bending rules, and getting credit for others' work" 4 | Altonji,Joseph,Strongly Agree,8,,Agree,7, 5 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,5,,Uncertain,3, 6 | Autor,David,Strongly Agree,10,"Rank order tournaments, performance pay and sorting, sorting in experiments. These are classic insights.",Disagree,6,"Much as I like the ROT hypothesis, I doubt it's the main explanation for the rot-ten excess of executive pay in the U.S. " 7 | Baicker,Katherine,Strongly Agree,3,,No Opinion,, 8 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Agree,6,,Disagree,6,"Often its neither of the given options. Just rents you capture by being in the right place at the right time, or pure windfalls." 9 | Bertrand,Marianne,Strongly Agree,8,,Uncertain,6, 10 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 11 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 12 | Chevalier,Judith,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 13 | Cutler,David,Strongly Agree,10,The late Eddie Lazear was a pioneer in this area.,Agree,6, 14 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,6,,Agree,6, 15 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,1,,Uncertain,4,"Both play an important role, but I'm not confident which is more important. " 16 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,7,,Disagree,3, 17 | Eichengreen,Barry,Agree,3,,Agree,3, 18 | Einav,Liran,Agree,3,,Uncertain,1, 19 | Fair,Ray,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 20 | Finkelstein,Amy,Agree,5,,Agree,3, 21 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Strongly Agree,7,,Uncertain,5,"True in some settings, but not in others." 22 | Goolsbee,Austan,Strongly Agree,8,,Uncertain,6, 23 | Greenstone,Michael,Agree,7,,Uncertain,2, 24 | Hall,Robert,Agree,6,,Agree,5, 25 | Hart,Oliver,Strongly Agree,10,Eddie Lazear's work on this topic has been very insightful. I would mention particularly his AER article on Safelite.,Uncertain,10,Promotion to a high salary position can be an important incentive but a high salary can be paid because an executive has a scarce talent. 26 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,6,,Agree,6,"Not sure it is a prize a la tournament theory, as much as it reflects market value as several studies suggest." 27 | Hoxby,Caroline,Strongly Agree,10,"This is one of the many insights due to the great and (sadly) late Eddie Lazear. He will be missed as a mind & a colleague. Ave, Eddie.",Strongly Agree,10,This is one of Eddie Lazear's and Sherwin Rosen's most insightful papers. Read it. 28 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,8,,Uncertain,8, 29 | Judd,Kenneth,Agree,8,,Agree,6, 30 | Kaplan,Steven,Strongly Agree,8,,Strongly Disagree,9, 31 | Kashyap,Anil,Agree,3,"Depends on what much means, but this could have been a Nobel prize summary citation. Eddie was a giant and will be sorely missed. ",Uncertain,3,"Varies across firms, for sure the tournaments are important, but for the average public company hard for me to say if they dominant. " 32 | Klenow,Pete,Strongly Agree,3,,Agree,3, 33 | Levin,Jonathan,Strongly Agree,4,,Uncertain,3, 34 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,7,,Agree,5, 35 | Nordhaus,William,Disagree,4,,Uncertain,3,Not the only choices. 36 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Strongly Agree,5,,Strongly Agree,5, 37 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,4,,Agree,6, 38 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,8,,Uncertain,1,Senior salaries are set in thin markets by negotiation or other proceses with performance hard to measure; so are difficult to characterize. 39 | Scheinkman,José,Agree,6,,Uncertain,7, 40 | Schmalensee,Richard,Strongly Agree,5,,Uncertain,5,"The ""prize"" effect is real, but do we really know that it is the dominant effect?" 41 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,2,,Uncertain,3, 42 | Shimer,Robert,Strongly Agree,8,,Agree,5,This is correct for internal promotions. Less so for the global market for CEOs. 43 | Stock,James,Agree,3,,Agree,3, 44 | Thaler,Richard,Agree,1,,Agree,5,"""‘prize’ for those who put in the effort to achieve one of the top positions"". So a prize for campaigning. Plus luck. *Not* =value created. " 45 | Udry,Christopher,Strongly Agree,5,,Uncertain,6, 46 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2021-02-23-US-EEP-Short-Positions.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, would lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the accuracy of stock prices.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Disagree,3,"Both theoretically and empirically, there are reasons to expect that shortselling can lead to bubbles and other price distortions.",Uncertain,2,"Transparency should help, but there are various complications related to herding and complex inferences less sophisticated traders can draw." 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Agree,7,,No Opinion,, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,7,,Agree,3, 5 | Autor,David,No Opinion,,,No Opinion,, 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Uncertain,6,,Agree,6, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,1,,Agree,1, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Agree,7,"in general yes, but there are exception due to short squeezes and predatory short selling",Uncertain,8,outcome depends on details 10 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Agree,7,,Uncertain,4, 12 | Cutler,David,Uncertain,2,"My guess is there's a literature on this, but I don't know it.",Agree,4, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,6,,Agree,6, 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Strongly Agree,10,Short-sale bans (a) leave optimists less constrained than pessimists and (b) reduce market liquidity. These both cause price distortions.,Uncertain,10,Reveals price-relevant information about who is shorting but reduces the incentive to short. The net effect on price accuracy is unclear. 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,8,Short selling is one important way to prevent prices from being too out of whack on the high side. ,Disagree,1,Shorts may fear companies’ withholding information which discourages shorts. Withholding also lowers the informativeness of prices. 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Agree,4,,Uncertain,4, 17 | Einav,Liran,Agree,1,,Agree,1, 18 | Fair,Ray,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Agree,5,,Agree,4, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Agree,5,,Uncertain,4,It would make it even easier to squeeze the shorts. 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Agree,7,,Agree,5, 22 | Greenstone,Michael,Agree,8,,Uncertain,3, 23 | Hall,Robert,Agree,2,This is what the research seems to say.,Uncertain,1,Disclosures cut both ways 24 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,7,,Uncertain,7, 25 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,6,,Uncertain,4, 26 | Hoxby,Caroline,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 27 | Hoynes,Hilary,Uncertain,6,,Uncertain,6, 28 | Judd,Kenneth,Uncertain,6,"There is little serious research on this question. Research often ignores differences in beliefs, an obvious source of shorting behavior. 29 | ",Agree,4,"Having large short positions may lead to market power, justifying this rule." 30 | Kaplan,Steven,Strongly Agree,9,,Uncertain,3, 31 | Kashyap,Anil,Strongly Agree,7,,Uncertain,3,"Would likely lead to less shorting. Squeezes, who knows? Sometimes prominent shorts campaign against their target (eg Einhorn and Lehman). " 32 | Klenow,Pete,Strongly Agree,5,,Agree,1, 33 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,4,,Uncertain,2, 34 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,6,,Agree,6, 35 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,6,,Agree,3, 36 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Agree,6,,Agree,4, 37 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,4,,Agree,3, 38 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,1,Short-selling provided information. The sub-prime crisis might have been less severe it it weas easier to short mortgage-backed securities.,Agree,8,One would expect the additional information to be valuable in the market. 39 | Scheinkman,José,Strongly Agree,9,Short sellers moderate speculative episodes. Short sellers have occasionally revealed fraud (Enron). ,Agree,6,No obvious reason for current asymmetry of treatment between investor accumulating large position and one amassing large short interest. 40 | Schmalensee,Richard,Agree,5,,Uncertain,2, 41 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,6,,Agree,3, 42 | Shimer,Robert,Agree,8,Ban on shorts means prices do not reflect the views and information of pessimistic investors. Possible exception is during a short squeeze.,Uncertain,1, 43 | Stock,James,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,2, 44 | Thaler,Richard,Strongly Agree,7,without short selling prices are set by the most optimistic traders yielding a winner's curse. ,Uncertain,1,I don't see offhand why there should be an asymmetry in disclosure rules long v short but whether it affects prices is uncertain. 45 | Udry,Christopher,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 46 | ,,,,,,, 47 | ,,,,,,, 48 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2020-10-13-US-EEP-Tax-Proposals.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"Restoring the top individual federal income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes over $400,000 (from the current 37%) and taxing the capital gains and dividends of taxpayers with income over $1 million at that top rate (instead of the current preferential rate of 20%), with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be unlikely to hurt economic growth noticeably.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,"Restoring the top tax rate, removing the preferential rate on capital gains and dividends, and raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be likely to lead to a meaningful sustained reduction in fiscal deficits.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Strongly Agree,5,"Removing the overly favorable tax treatment of capital would have other benefits, such as reducing incentives for excessive automation.",Agree,4, 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Strongly Agree,7,,Strongly Agree,7, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 5 | Autor,David,Strongly Agree,8,We've seen this movie before during the Clinton and Obama administrations. It has a happy ending. ,Strongly Agree,8,These specific cuts ballooned the federal budget deficit; reversing them would have the opposite effect. (This is not ideal policy either) 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Strongly Agree,7,,Strongly Agree,8, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,8,,Agree,6, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Agree,5,,Agree,5,Despite such a measure the public debt level will still be very high for the foreseeable future. 10 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Agree,7,,Agree,7, 12 | Cutler,David,Agree,6,,Strongly Agree,5, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,7,,Agree,7, 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Uncertain,2,"I support the policy on distributional grounds, but I'm uncertain of whether it affects total output growth noticeably.",Agree,2,"Before considering growth effects, it's obvious. It also seems likely after considering growth effects. " 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,6,,Agree,6, 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Agree,3,Agree w/ low confidence. Would agree with higher confidence were revenues spent on infrastructure & early childhood education.,Uncertain,3,"My caveat to the earlier question applies here as well. I'm also uncomfortable with the underspecified qualifier ""sustained.""" 17 | Einav,Liran,Strongly Agree,1,,Agree,1, 18 | Fair,Ray,Disagree,5,"Not sure what ""noticeably"" means. It's a least a slight negative. ",Agree,5, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Agree,6,,Agree,6, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Agree,5,,Disagree,5,Increasing the corporate tax rate would just lead to more tax avoidance 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Strongly Agree,10,How many time do we have to go over this? Seriously.,Strongly Agree,10,And once more for the folks who just won't learn: HOW MANY TIMES DO WE NEED TO REDISCOVER THAT TAXES RAISE REVENUE AND TAX CUTS DON'T? 22 | Greenstone,Michael,Strongly Agree,7,,Strongly Agree,7, 23 | Hall,Robert,Uncertain,7,Tremendously complicated issue.,Uncertain,6,Even more complicated 24 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,6,,Agree,6, 25 | Holmström,Bengt,Uncertain,3,,Agree,3, 26 | Hoxby,Caroline,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 27 | Hoynes,Hilary,No Opinion,,,No Opinion,, 28 | Judd,Kenneth,Agree,5,These tax increases may affect growth in long run but not immediately.,Agree,6, 29 | Kaplan,Steven,Disagree,6,Tax cut of 2017 appears to have helped economy. Tax increase in a big recession would hurt it.,Disagree,3, 30 | Kashyap,Anil,Agree,1,,Agree,5,"Of course Biden is proposing lots of additional spending, so I don't expect the budget outlook to improve. If rates rise, trouble..." 31 | Klenow,Pete,Agree,5,,Agree,4, 32 | Levin,Jonathan,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 33 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,5,,Agree,3, 34 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,6,,Agree,6, 35 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Agree,5,,Uncertain,5, 36 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,9,,Strongly Agree,9, 37 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,8,,Agree,8,Repeated attempts have provided strong evidence that reducing tax rates does not increase tax revenue. 38 | Scheinkman,José,Disagree,7,Increased taxes on dividends and CG would increase capital misallocation by firms. Also increase misallocation to owner occupied housing. ,Agree,8,"Suffices to repeal Trump's reform, another failed Republican attempt to show that lowering taxes decreases deficits. " 39 | Schmalensee,Richard,Agree,4,,Agree,4, 40 | Shapiro,Carl,Strongly Agree,7,"And using the proceeds to fund pro-growth policies like infrastructure, education, and clean energy R&D ",Agree,8, 41 | Shimer,Robert,Uncertain,5,"I agree in the short run. It's less clear in the medium run, but then perhaps that is also less ""noticeable""",Agree,5, 42 | Stock,James,Agree,4,,Agree,6, 43 | Thaler,Richard,Agree,1,,Disagree,1, 44 | Udry,Christopher,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 45 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2023_surveys/2023-04-27-US-EEP-AI-and-Productivity-Growth.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Uncertain,6,"Though breakthroughs in large language models are impressive and appear to be capable of increasing human productivity, there is no evidence that they can be effectively employed in production. Past applications have often disappointed. Current direction of AI is also distorted. ",Agree,6,"There is some uncertainty here as well. But in its current direction AI is an ""inappropriate technology"" for many emerging economies and may slow down their growth, as it seeks to substitutes capital and programming skills for middle and low skills." 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Agree,3,,Disagree,3, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 5 | Autor,David,Uncertain,6,"It may accelerate scientific breakthroughs, but it may also spur social chaos. Whether the productive outpaces the destructive is uncertain. ",Agree,4,"AI is potentially an even bigger deal than the Internet for industrialized countries (though not for the developing world). Whether this potential will generate faster growth rates is, in my mind, uncertain given the vast potential for ancillary harms. " 6 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Uncertain,4,,Uncertain,4, 7 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,3,,Agree,3, 8 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Agree,8,,Uncertain,8, 9 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 10 | Chevalier,Judith,Agree,2,,Uncertain,4, 11 | Cutler,David,Agree,5,,Disagree,5, 12 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,6,,Uncertain,3, 13 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,1,,Uncertain,1, 14 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,6,,Agree,2, 15 | Eichengreen,Barry,Agree,5,"Between 2033 and 2053? That seems about right, given the adaptation lag historically to earlier general purpose technologies.",Uncertain,5, 16 | Einav,Liran,Agree,1,,Uncertain,1, 17 | Fair,Ray,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 18 | Finkelstein,Amy,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 19 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Uncertain,7,,Uncertain,7, 20 | Greenstone,Michael,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,4, 21 | Hall,Robert,Uncertain,4,,Uncertain,4, 22 | Hart,Oliver,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 23 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,4,,Uncertain,4, 24 | Hoxby,Caroline,Uncertain,10,"I am confident that this is uncertain. AI substitutes for certain jobs and not for others, so a complex, General Equilibrium analysis is required. I have not so far seen any analysis that I would find convincing.",Uncertain,10, 25 | Hoynes,Hilary,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 26 | Judd,Kenneth,Agree,6,"AI should improve economic growth but adoption of new tech will be slow because people do not like change, loss of status, etc.",Agree,7,"AI will directly improve measured growth because it will economize on use of inputs. Impact of internet (e.g. Facebook, Google) is less clear and more difficult to measure." 27 | Kaplan,Steven,Uncertain,4,"AI will be helpful in many areas. But it will be fighting against the headwinds of many types of regulation as well as learning how to use it best. Net effect in next ten years is promising, but uncertain.",Agree,4, 28 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,2,,Uncertain,3, 29 | Klenow,Pete,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 30 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,4,,Agree,2, 31 | Maskin,Eric,Uncertain,4,AI will most likely lead ultimately to a very substantial increase in growth rates----but that may take longer than 10 years.,Uncertain,4,Same explanation as before 32 | Nordhaus,William,Disagree,7, ,Disagree,7, 33 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 34 | Saez,Emmanuel,Uncertain,4,,Uncertain,4, 35 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,8,,Uncertain,1,The contribution will be large but the comparison is not easy to make at this point. 36 | Scheinkman,José,Agree,5,"However (i) substantial effect on income inequality is probable and (ii) measurement of actual effect on growth will depend on improvements on treatment of ""free"" goods and quality changes..",Uncertain,5, 37 | Schmalensee,Richard,Uncertain,6,Too early to know,Uncertain,6,Too early to know 38 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,3,,Disagree,2, 39 | Shimer,Robert,Agree,4,,Agree,4, 40 | Stock,James,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 41 | Thaler,Richard,Uncertain,1,Seems unlikely but who knows? ,Disagree,1,If Internet plus smart phone did not move the needle why should we expect this to do so? 42 | Udry,Christopher,Agree,5,"...that or take over the world :) 43 | AI is a powerful tool that will help generate additional innovations. It will change many aspects of work.",Uncertain,7, 44 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2021-01-13-US-EEP-After-Brexit.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Agree,1,That's my median expectation. Not because of direct effect of less trade but because of worse policies that will result from brexit politics,Uncertain,1,"Same answer. Uncertain. EU policies may be worse without written, but even less clear in this case. Loss of trade with UK less important.",,,,,,,,,,,, 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Agree,6,,Disagree,4,"The UK accounted for just 15.2% of EU output in 2017, so the negative effect on remaining EU states will be less than the effect on the UK. ",,,,,,,,,,,, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3,,,,,,,,,,,,, 5 | Autor,David,Agree,5,,Agree,5,,,,,,,,,,,,, 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Agree,6,,Uncertain,5,,,,,,,,,,,,, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,3,,Uncertain,1,,,,,,,,,,,,, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Agree,6,,Uncertain,5,,,,,,,,,,,,, 10 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Agree,6,Effects on investment and productivity have already been measurable. ,Uncertain,3,,,,,,,,,,,,, 12 | Cutler,David,Agree,4,,Uncertain,4,,,,,,,,,,,,, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Strongly Agree,6,,Agree,4,,,,,,,,,,,,, 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,2,,Disagree,2,"Whatever the correct cost to the UK, the proportional cost to the EU would likely be smaller because the EU is much bigger.",,,,,,,,,,,, 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Uncertain,6,We don’t know yet what trade agreements will replace it. ,Uncertain,6,We don’t know yet what trade agreements will replace it. ,,,,,,,,,,,, 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Agree,5,,Disagree,5,,,,,,,,,,,,, 17 | Einav,Liran,Agree,1,,Uncertain,1,,,,,,,,,,,,, 18 | Fair,Ray,Agree,4,,Disagree,4,,,,,,,,,,,,, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Agree,2,,Uncertain,5,,,,,,,,,,,,, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5,,,,,,,,,,,,, 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Strongly Agree,10,"""The doctor says I wouldn't have so many nose bleeds if I kept my finger out of there"" 22 | --Ralph Wiggum",Agree,6,It's not good but is it 'at least several percentage points' worth?,,,,,,,,,,,, 23 | Greenstone,Michael,Agree,4,,Uncertain,3,,,,,,,,,,,,, 24 | Hall,Robert,Uncertain,1,This is an incredibly complicated issue with forces going in both directions. Pretense to expertise would be misplacedl,Uncertain,1,See previous question,,,,,,,,,,,, 25 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,6,,Disagree,6,,,,,,,,,,,,, 26 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,6,,Uncertain,5,,,,,,,,,,,,, 27 | Hoxby,Caroline,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 28 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,6,,Uncertain,6,,,,,,,,,,,,, 29 | Judd,Kenneth,Uncertain,6,"""Several""? Outcome is uncertain. E.g., a free-trade agreement with US -- join NAFTA? -- may help them. ",Disagree,6,"I doubt rest of EU will take a big hit. Unfortunately, serious quantitative analysis of these questions is opposed by the economic elite.",,,,,,,,,,,, 30 | Kaplan,Steven,Uncertain,8,"Short-term minuses, medium and long-term pluses offset.",Uncertain,8,,,,,,,,,,,,, 31 | Kashyap,Anil,No Opinion,,FPC appointment rules out answering this. ,No Opinion,,FPC appointment rules out answering this. ,,,,,,,,,,,, 32 | Klenow,Pete,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3,,,,,,,,,,,,, 33 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,1,GDP effects ten years out? Not easy to forecast.,Uncertain,1,,,,,,,,,,,,, 34 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,4,,Agree,4,,,,,,,,,,,,, 35 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,6,,Disagree,6,,,,,,,,,,,,, 36 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Strongly Agree,6,,Disagree,6,The EU27 will suffer far less than the UK ... a much smaller proportion of their foreign trade is at stake.,,,,,,,,,,,, 37 | Saez,Emmanuel,Uncertain,3,,Disagree,3,,,,,,,,,,,,, 38 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,6,"We can expect Brexit to have a negative effect on the UK economy, though the magnitude is much more difficult to predict.",Agree,6,"Again, We can expect Brexit to have a negative effect, but its magnitude, and whether it will be several percentage points, is less clear.",,,,,,,,,,,, 39 | Scheinkman,José,Uncertain,7,"While impact is most likely negative, magnitude is still very uncertain and will depend on UK's future policy choices.",Uncertain,7,"While impact in Europe will also be negative, magnitude will be a fraction of UK's. ",,,,,,,,,,,, 40 | Schmalensee,Richard,Agree,4,,Uncertain,4,Tail wags dog? Seems too strong an effect.,,,,,,,,,,,, 41 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,8,,Disagree,3,,,,,,,,,,,,, 42 | Shimer,Robert,Agree,5,,Agree,3,,,,,,,,,,,,, 43 | Stock,James,Agree,5,,Disagree,5,,,,,,,,,,,,, 44 | Thaler,Richard,Agree,1,Very unsure of the magnitudes but confident about the sign. ,Uncertain,1,How much of the London financial sector moves to the continent? ,,,,,,,,,,,, 45 | Udry,Christopher,Agree,6,,Agree,5,,,,,,,,,,,,, 46 | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 47 | ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 48 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2023_surveys/2023-09-29-US-EEP-Subsidizing-Green-Technology.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"Subsidizing Green Technology 2 | 3 | 4 | Government subsidies for investment in green technologies are justified by substantial benefits coming from reducing unpriced carbon emissions and generating positive R&D spillovers.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,Using subsidies for green technologies instead of full carbon prices will lead to substantially more rent-seeking and hence substantially higher costs to achieve a given reduction in emissions.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less. 5 | Acemoglu,Daron,Strongly Agree,8,"This is true even when there are carbon prices. The view that policy should set the right carbon price and the market can do the rest is invalid. R&D generates uninternalized spillovers, so there is a first-order need to redirect innovation even when there are carbon prices.",Disagree,6,There is no evidence that subsidies to green innovation lead to more wastage than any other type of innovation subsidies or R&D tax credits (which are ubiquitous throughout the industrialized world). 6 | Altonji,Joseph,Strongly Agree,7,,Agree,7,"Full carbon pricing is a tough, tough sell. There is scope for subsidizing R&D and initial investments in green technology even with carbon pricing " 7 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,5,,Strongly Agree,7, 8 | Autor,David,Strongly Agree,8,,Disagree,6,The question presumes these are substitutes and I disagree. Even full carbon pricing is not sufficient to create the efficient level of directed technical change. We require both carbon pricing _and_ subsidies. 9 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Agree,5,,Uncertain,3,The right carbon tax may be an unrealistic counterfactual. Governments seem to find it politically challenging to implement them. 10 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,4,,Agree,5, 11 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Agree,7,,Strongly Agree,8, 12 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 13 | Chevalier,Judith,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 14 | Cutler,David,Strongly Agree,5,,Uncertain,5, 15 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,6,,Disagree,6, 16 | Duffie,Darrell,Disagree,3,"Compared to the direct application of carbon taxes or permit markets, subsidizing green tech (although perhaps better than nothing) probably has a big negative value. It will be costly to monitor for efficacy and waste. If there are good spillovers, where is the market failure?",Strongly Agree,3, 17 | Edlin,Aaron,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 18 | Eichengreen,Barry,Uncertain,5,,Agree,1,"Low confidence owing to the word ""substantially""." 19 | Einav,Liran,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1, 20 | Fair,Ray,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 21 | Finkelstein,Amy,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 22 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Agree,7,,Uncertain,7,"Full carbon prices are not politically feasible in many settings, incl. the United States. Green subsidies are politically viable." 23 | Greenstone,Michael,Strongly Agree,8,,Strongly Agree,8, 24 | Hall,Robert,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 25 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,7,I would prefer carbon taxes but these seem politically challenging.,Agree,8,I'm not sure about the rent-seeking but the costs will be higher. 26 | Holmström,Bengt,Strongly Agree,6,,Disagree,6,We should use full range of instruments. Both subsidies for investment and of course carbon prices. 27 | Hoxby,Caroline,Uncertain,7,,Strongly Agree,10, 28 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,8,,Agree,5, 29 | Judd,Kenneth,Disagree,7,"Some subsidies may be justified but not large ones. ""Green tech"" should include any tech that reduces CO2 emissions, not just the popular ones. ",Agree,8,Carbon taxes go after the real problem efficiently. They raise revenues instead of increasing debt. Green subsidies are difficult to efficiently implement. 30 | Kaplan,Steven,Uncertain,4,,Agree,8, 31 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,1,,Agree,3, 32 | Klenow,Pete,Strongly Agree,5,,Disagree,3, 33 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,5,,Uncertain,3, 34 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,7,,Agree,6, 35 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,8,This is theoretical. The calculations of the appropriate subsidy are difficult and almost never made.,Strongly Agree,9,The first theorem of public finance is tax bad don't subsidize disparate goods. 36 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Agree,8,,Uncertain,4, 37 | Saez,Emmanuel,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 38 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,8,"Externalities and a lack of prices justify intervention, though other tools would be more effective than subsidies.",Agree,6, 39 | Scheinkman,José,Agree,8,,Agree,6,"However, while one of the major political parties spouses ""flat-earth"" theories on climate change, there is no hope of passing carbon pricing." 40 | Schmalensee,Richard,Agree,5,Only because carbon emissions are unpriced.,Strongly Agree,8,"Rent-seeking is not the major problem. Alternative ways of reducing carbon emissions are not treated equally, so costs would be substantially higher than necessary even without rent-seeking." 41 | Shapiro,Carl,Strongly Agree,10,,Agree,8, 42 | Shimer,Robert,Agree,2,,Strongly Agree,8, 43 | Stock,James,Strongly Agree,9,"In theory, yes if the benefit exceeds the cost. For the subsidies to wind, solar and EVs in the IRA, the cost per ton is well less than the EPA’s estimate of the Social Cost of Carbon. Other subsidies can be less cost effective, for example some energy efficiency subsidies.",Disagree,7,"Disagree b/c rent seeking is only one channel and not the most important. Multiple externalities so efficiency of subsidies depends on case. R&D subsidies can be efficient for green innovation, but subsidies for deploying wind & solar are less efficient than carbon tax. " 44 | Thaler,Richard,No Opinion,,Impossible to answer as posed. A subsidy *can* be just a negative tax or also a distortion. Not a well-posed question. ,No Opinion,,Ditto 45 | Udry,Christopher,Strongly Agree,7,Subsidies for technological innovation are part of the solution,Agree,8,"Full pricing of emissions is much more important than subsidizing new tech, but both are called for. Subsidies can address externalities from learning and networks" 46 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2023_surveys/2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-Market-Power.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"AI and Market Power 2 | 3 | 4 | Use of artificial intelligence is likely to lead to a substantial increase in problems associated with market power in digital markets.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,Artificial intelligence offers substantial opportunities for new entrants into digital markets that have previously been concentrated.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,"Artificial intelligence is likely to be a highly concentrated industry, dominated by a handful of players.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less. 5 | Acemoglu,Daron,Agree,6,"Microsoft-OpenAI and Google are heading towards leadership in (generative) AI, which could lead to an even more oligopolistic market. More structurally, the current approach AI relies on abundant data as inputs and the rush to collect and use data will further weaken competition",Uncertain,5,"Possible, especially with open source and the construction of mid-size, targeted AI models and AI stacks. But there is no evidence that these are going to be effective competition against large foundation models. Moreover, incumbents will continue to use M&A to thwart competitors",Agree,5,"On balance, this would be my assessment, but there is a lot of uncertainty." 6 | Altonji,Joseph,Uncertain,2,,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3, 7 | Auerbach,Alan,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 8 | Autor,David,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5,"It offers opportunities. But they may be thwarted by incumbents, e.g., the way Facebook bought up potential rivals. This in part depends on antitrust enforcement, which in turns depends on who is President",Agree,6,"At least for the foundation models, scale appears extremely important. Many AI services will run on top of these models, but those services will likely be provided by many smaller firms, though within verticals, competition may not be robust" 9 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,6,,Uncertain,5, 10 | Bertrand,Marianne,Uncertain,3,,Agree,3,,Agree,3, 11 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Agree,7,,Uncertain,5,,Agree,8, 12 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 13 | Chevalier,Judith,Uncertain,8,,Uncertain,8,,No Opinion,,AI is not an industry and many industries use/will use AI in a variety of ways. 14 | Cutler,David,Agree,4,,Agree,4,,Agree,4, 15 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,7,,Uncertain,5,,Agree,6, 16 | Duffie,Darrell,Uncertain,2,,Uncertain,2,,Agree,2,There ought to be significant scale economies associated with learning from user data and from server farm scale effects. 17 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,7,,Uncertain,5,,Agree,6, 18 | Eichengreen,Barry,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 19 | Einav,Liran,Disagree,1,,Uncertain,1,,Agree,1, 20 | Fair,Ray,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 21 | Finkelstein,Amy,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 22 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Uncertain,6,,Agree,6,,Uncertain,6, 23 | Greenstone,Michael,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 24 | Hall,Robert,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 25 | Hart,Oliver,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 26 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,5,Depends on regulatory actions,Agree,4,History suggests turnover as well as long-run survivors,Uncertain,4,AI will be so widespread that the field will be hard to define 27 | Hoxby,Caroline,Agree,10,,Uncertain,5,,Agree,8, 28 | Hoynes,Hilary,Uncertain,5,,Agree,8,,Uncertain,8, 29 | Judd,Kenneth,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 30 | Kaplan,Steven,Uncertain,8,I am confidently uncertain.,Uncertain,6,Uncertain because it is possible for incumbents and / or new entrants to have some success.,Disagree,8,The technology is statistics / algorithms. A key differentiating resource will be information. Different players will have different information advantages. 31 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,1,"I can see arguments on both sides, maybe it leads to more disruption?",Agree,1,of course they may opt to sell to dominant incumbents too. ,Agree,1,"seems likely, but could they be different players than the currently dominant ones? " 32 | Klenow,Pete,Disagree,2,,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1, 33 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,5,,Agree,6,,Uncertain,5,"A plausible scenario is that aspects of the core technology are highly concentrated, but applications of AI are ubiquitous. " 34 | Maskin,Eric,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 35 | Nordhaus,William,Uncertain,6,"Low entry cost and can threaten established players. Google declared ""code red"" when learning about.",Agree,6,Just answered yes!,Uncertain,5,"As Zhou may have said about the French Revolution, too early to say. " 36 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1, 37 | Saez,Emmanuel,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 38 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,4,"Tech markets have tended to be highly concentrated, so one might expect AI to exacerbate this trend, but the effect of AI is general very difficult to predict.",Agree,4,"To reconcile this with the previous answer, AI may well open many opportunities for entrants, but existing Tech giants have been good at preserving concentration by buying such entrants.",Agree,4,"Again much uncertainty, but high-tech tends to exhibit network externalities that lead to concentration; AI may continue this trend." 39 | Scheinkman,José,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5,,Agree,5,It should benefit from some of the same forces that led to concentration in search engines. 40 | Schmalensee,Richard,Uncertain,7,Much to early to call.,Agree,4,"Seems probable, since it will enable the creation of new products. But if scale economies end up being very important, it may just entrench incumbents.",Disagree,5,"First, ""the AI industry"" makes no sense. There will ultimately be multiple markets. Second, it is too early to predict the structure of most, if not all, of these markets." 41 | Shapiro,Carl,Disagree,7,,Agree,4,,Strongly Disagree,9, 42 | Shimer,Robert,Uncertain,1,,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 43 | Stock,James,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 44 | Thaler,Richard,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 45 | Udry,Christopher,Agree,7,Strong returns to scale/network economies raise these challenges,Strongly Agree,9,,Uncertain,5, 46 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2021-02-08-US-EEP-Coronavirus-Relief.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"Until mass vaccination is achieved, any additional government spending going directly to households should focus on keeping low-income individuals and families safe and healthy rather than on boosting current economic activity.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,"If the goal is to boost current economic activity, targeting checks at households making less than $75,000 per year would be more cost-effective than providing checks to higher income households as well.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Agree,4,"Interpreting ""safe and healthy"" as enough money to prevent poverty for low income households. Also aid for state and local govs is important",Agree,4, 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Uncertain,5,"Wording is tricky. Spending should focus both on health, which will help the economy, and on the economy, prioritizing those in need.",Agree,8, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,5,,Strongly Agree,8, 5 | Autor,David,Disagree,5,Infection rates + deaths are falling and vaccination rollout is accelerating. It's time to start recovery. Biden won't get two at-bats,Strongly Agree,8,Evidence is that HH's with higher incomes simply put the money in the bank. We don't need government handouts to spur personal savings. 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Agree,3,,Agree,3, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Disagree,6,,Agree,6, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,7,,Agree,6, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Agree,6,,Agree,6,targeting unemployed or households who suffered losses due to COVID shock would be even more desirable 10 | Chetty,Raj,Agree,10,,Strongly Agree,10, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Agree,7,"Of course, resources designed to open school safely, etc. also are helpful to the economy. ",Uncertain,7,I would be more inclined to agree if we had a mechanism to target based on actual current circumstances rather than 2019 tax income. 12 | Cutler,David,Disagree,3,These aren't in conflict now.,Strongly Agree,5, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Uncertain,5,,Agree,7, 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,2,"I had difficulty interpreting the phrase ""rather than,"" but the prioritization of safety and health seems natural.",Agree,3,I'm assuming that the higher marginal propensity to consume of lower income earners is the dominant factor in making this comparison. 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,7,My answer might change if the economy heads too far south. ,Agree,7,We already have a pile of savings from the well off. Targeting money to those who spend is most likely to increase spending. 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 17 | Einav,Liran,Agree,1,,Strongly Agree,1, 18 | Fair,Ray,Agree,6,,Agree,8, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Agree,7,,Strongly Agree,6, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Strongly Agree,6,,Strongly Agree,6, 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Strongly Agree,8,Yee,Agree,7, 22 | Greenstone,Michael,Uncertain,1,,Agree,6, 23 | Hall,Robert,Agree,5,Economic activity is depressed mainly by supply restrictions,Agree,8,"Subsidies to higher income households don't raise spending significantly, but go into saving." 24 | Hart,Oliver,Strongly Agree,8,,Agree,7, 25 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,8,,Strongly Agree,7, 26 | Hoxby,Caroline,Agree,10,,Agree,4,"I agree w the question as asked, but this is also a crude way of targeting compared to what could be attained by using available data." 27 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,8,"key here is how to define 'low income"" - I say yes for those in need.",Uncertain,8,The problem is that the phase out is based on *2019* income - many with higher incomes in 2019 could be in financial stress now. 28 | Judd,Kenneth,Agree,8,"""Stimulus"" should not be the focus. Much of what is proposed is economic relief to those who are facing economic ruin.",Agree,8,This is always true for recession policies. Economists have failed to develop policies that are properly targeted. Why? 29 | Kaplan,Steven,Uncertain,3,Hard to have confidence in anything with regard to the virus. Ideally want to have economic and school activity while keeping people safe.,Strongly Agree,9, 30 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,5,Propping up zombie firms and giving people checks that just get saved is not good. Some other support could still be useful. Details matter,Strongly Agree,5,we will have to pay off the debt and there are lots of pressing other needs. so conserving fiscal space is desirable 31 | Klenow,Pete,Strongly Agree,5,,Agree,3, 32 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,3,Agree on focus. Investment in testing and accelerating vaccination also welcome.,Agree,4,"Yes, but might think less in terms of stimulus multiplier and more about aiding at-risk families" 33 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,5,,Agree,7, 34 | Nordhaus,William,Uncertain,5,False dichotomy.,Strongly Agree,8,"Both on equity and efficiency grounds, this is appropriate approach." 35 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,5,"Health/safety for low-income a priority, but there likely remains some negative output gap.",Agree,7, 36 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,6,,Agree,8, 37 | Samuelson,Larry,Strongly Agree,8,"The recession is a public health emergency, and stimulus without first addressing the health issues can be ineffective or counterproductive.",Strongly Agree,1,"The brunt of the pandemic has fallen on those at the bottom of the scale, and relief is most needed and will be most effective there." 38 | Scheinkman,José,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 39 | Schmalensee,Richard,Strongly Agree,8,"Will also boost activity, since mpc is high for low-income households.",Strongly Agree,8,High-income households are more likely to save the money. 40 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,3,"Defining ""safe and healthy"" in a broad manner to include economic security. ",Strongly Agree,9,"This seems very clear, but there is nothing magic about using $75,000 as the upper limit." 41 | Shimer,Robert,Agree,8,The only caveat is that disease prevalence may fall substantially before mass vaccination is achieved.,Agree,7,"Wealthier households have been building up their savings and would likely do the same with any new ""stimulus"" checks" 42 | Stock,James,Agree,6,"Caveat: if those vaccinated (older, wealthier) start feeling safe we might start to see services demand return early than full vaccination.",Agree,7,Higher MPC especially those liquidity constrained. 43 | Thaler,Richard,Agree,5,,Strongly Agree,5, 44 | Udry,Christopher,Agree,6,"Transfers to low income families are needed for safety and health. Vaccines, testing and tracing more important than spending for stimulus.",Agree,1, 45 | ,,,,,,, 46 | ,,,,,,, 47 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2023_surveys/2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-the-Labor-Market.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"AI and the Labor Market 2 | 3 | 4 | Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a negative impact on the earnings potential of substantial numbers of high-skilled workers in advanced countries.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to substantially greater uncertainty about the likely returns to investment in education.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years is likely to have a measurable impact in increasing income inequality.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less. 5 | Acemoglu,Daron,Uncertain,5,Three major uncertainties. 1. Not clear whether AI will successfully target tasks performed by the highly skilled. Evidence so far shows not. 2. Generative AI can also complement some high skill tasks. 3. Skilled workers can change occupations and shift negative effects to others,Disagree,5,"Though there is some uncertainty the burden will fall on less educated workers. Social skills will become valuable, and specialized technical skills as well as higher education will most likely remain protected from AI. The flexibility conferred by education will also be valuable",Agree,5,"While it is possible for generative AI to be a useful tool for noncollege workers, I do not see the current path achieving this, and the existing evidence is more consistent with most of the burden of displacement falling on less educated, lower-wage workers." 6 | Altonji,Joseph,Agree,7,,Agree,4,,Uncertain,3, 7 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,3,,Agree,5,,Disagree,3, 8 | Autor,David,Agree,6,"I think this will be a _relative_ effect not an absolute effect. I don't think that AI will make us poorer, and it may not (or it may) reduce the labor share. But I suspect (hope) that it may contribute to reduced inequality",Agree,6,Perhaps four-year college degrees won't appear so damn relevant to every well-paid occupation in industrialized economies. That would be a good thing. ,Disagree,6,I think it's slightly more likely to do the opposite. 9 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Disagree,5,The highest skilled workers will benefit from it. The medium skilled ones will be displaced,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 10 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,6,,Agree,6,,Uncertain,6, 11 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Uncertain,9,,Strongly Disagree,8,,Uncertain,6,It might benefit different groups than the current high earners and hence might contribute to social mobility. 12 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 13 | Chevalier,Judith,Uncertain,7,,Agree,6,I imagine that specialized educational programs for particular professions could have more uncertain returns. ,Uncertain,7,It is plausible that it could decrease income inequality. 14 | Cutler,David,Uncertain,4,,Disagree,4,,Strongly Agree,4, 15 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,6,,Agree,6,,Agree,6, 16 | Duffie,Darrell,Disagree,1,,Disagree,1,,Uncertain,1, 17 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,4,Answer may depend upon meaning of high skill. Sufficiently high skill may be immune. ,Agree,6,,Agree,8, 18 | Eichengreen,Barry,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5,,Uncertain,5, 19 | Einav,Liran,Disagree,1,,Strongly Disagree,1,,Uncertain,1, 20 | Fair,Ray,Uncertain,5,,Disagree,5,,Uncertain,5, 21 | Finkelstein,Amy,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 22 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Uncertain,5,,Disagree,6,,Agree,6, 23 | Greenstone,Michael,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 24 | Hall,Robert,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 25 | Hart,Oliver,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5,,Uncertain,5, 26 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,4,,Agree,5,,Agree,4, 27 | Hoxby,Caroline,Uncertain,10,,Agree,4,,Agree,4, 28 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,8,,Disagree,8,,Agree,8, 29 | Judd,Kenneth,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 30 | Kaplan,Steven,Uncertain,6,Uncertain. Spreadsheets did not reduce the demand for analysts / investment bankers. Demand increased. ,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 31 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,1,"some for sure, but net effects including new options created is harder to judge. ",Agree,1,,Uncertain,1, 32 | Klenow,Pete,Agree,3,,Disagree,3,,Agree,3, 33 | Levin,Jonathan,Uncertain,4,Hard to predict the mix of automation versus augmentation,Agree,5,"AI is improving rapidly at many skills we teach in higher education: synthesizing and distilling information, writing, coding, analytical and quantitative reasoning. Difficult to foresee all the implications, but they will be substantial.",Uncertain,3, 34 | Maskin,Eric,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 35 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,5,"Like all major new technologies, it will be disruptive. It may be more rapid than earlier changes given the speed of diffusion in the electronic age. But whether it will be a large fraction or relative minor, not clear.",Disagree,5,"Do not see it as reducing the returns to education, but is likely to be highly disruptive in that sector. Probabiy increases the uncertainty about the structure of education, but then so did Google for libraries.",Disagree,5,I think the impact on aggregate economic factors for the next decade is exaggerated. 36 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1, 37 | Saez,Emmanuel,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 38 | Samuelson,Larry,Uncertain,1,"AI may depress the earnings of many highly skilled workers, but may also open new opportunities for high-skill, high-earnings jobs.",Disagree,4,AI may well make education all the more important.,Uncertain,1, 39 | Scheinkman,José,Uncertain,5,The implementation of AI will probably be slower than the hype indicates. So it will probably take more time to affect a large number of high skilled workers. ,Uncertain,7,,Uncertain,5, 40 | Schmalensee,Richard,Agree,5,,Agree,4,,Uncertain,5,Much to early to predict the outcomes of the many decisions involved. 41 | Shapiro,Carl,Uncertain,3,,Disagree,4,,Uncertain,5, 42 | Shimer,Robert,Agree,4,,Agree,2,,Uncertain,1, 43 | Stock,James,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 44 | Thaler,Richard,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 45 | Udry,Christopher,Agree,7,A negative impact on some specialities; positive on others. This is a disruptive technology.,Agree,5,"The return to education overall will likely rise substantially, but there will be reductions in returns for many specialized subjects",Uncertain,6, 46 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2023_surveys/2023-09-29-US-EEP-Responses-To-Market-Power.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"Responses To Market Power 2 | 3 | 4 | Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy can in principle be effectively implemented using the existing tools of competition policy and antitrust enforcement.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,The effectiveness of existing antitrust regimes in constraining anti-competitive behavior is substantially limited by the inadequacy of the resources available to competition and regulatory agencies relative to the dominant firms of the digital economy.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,"Constraints on the anti-competitive behavior of dominant firms in the digital economy would be more effectively implemented than at present with ex-ante regulation such as Europe's Digital Markets Act and other forms of public utility regulation. 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Details on Digital Markets Act here: https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/index_en",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 9 | Acemoglu,Daron,Disagree,6,"First, there is disagreement on what the scope of current tools are (e.g., can we use them to break up the gargantuan big tech?). Second, the high speed and uncontrolled rollout of (generative) AI necessitates new regulatory tools. These should target more than just competition.",Agree,6,"The US has lost the ""regulatory muscle"" for dealing with large firms in any sector. But worse, the gov. lacks expertise and is also ideologically captured by big tech (witness how lawmakers & administration turn to tech CEOs whenever there is a question of regulation).",Strongly Agree,6,"Current favorite US tools, antitrust and lawsuits, are ex post, weak and insufficient. The age of AI necessitates ex ante regulations that prevent dangerous rollout of technologies and guarantees on safety before mass launch, and tools for redirecting AI innovation and use.",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 10 | Altonji,Joseph,Uncertain,2,,Agree,2,,Uncertain,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 11 | Auerbach,Alan,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 12 | Autor,David,Disagree,7,These don't apply well to unpriced goods.,Agree,8,,No Opinion,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 13 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Uncertain,5,,Agree,6,,Agree,4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 14 | Bertrand,Marianne,Disagree,6,,Agree,6,,Uncertain,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 15 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Uncertain,9,,Uncertain,5,developing a modern regulatory framework is more urgent,Agree,8,Technology is still evolving and hence it is difficult to effectively regulate it only ex-ante.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 16 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 17 | Chevalier,Judith,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 18 | Cutler,David,Uncertain,4,,Agree,4,,Agree,4,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 19 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,6,,Agree,6,,No Opinion,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 20 | Duffie,Darrell,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 21 | Edlin,Aaron,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 22 | Eichengreen,Barry,Agree,1,,Uncertain,1,,Agree,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 23 | Einav,Liran,Agree,1,,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 24 | Fair,Ray,Agree,5,,Agree,5,,Agree,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 25 | Finkelstein,Amy,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 26 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Agree,7,,Disagree,7,,Disagree,7,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 27 | Greenstone,Michael,Agree,5,,Agree,2,,Disagree,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 28 | Hall,Robert,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 29 | Hart,Oliver,Uncertain,5,I don't think antitrust laws are strong enough to constrain monopoly power resulting from size alone as opposed to acquisitions.,Agree,6,,Agree,6,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 30 | Holmström,Bengt,Uncertain,5,"We need to rethink regulation and competitive boundaries. Objectives and some old principles will apply, but new tools are needed, too.",Agree,5,Investments in new understanding and methods is needed. ,Uncertain,5,"The idea of a Digital Markets Act is appealing, but the scope and detail of the EU act comes too early. EU is behind in digital technology and likely to fall further behind with its aggressive pursuit of early regulation.",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 31 | Hoxby,Caroline,Disagree,10,,Strongly Agree,10,,No Opinion,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 32 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,3,,Uncertain,8,,Uncertain,8,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 33 | Judd,Kenneth,Agree,6,,Agree,8,Limited resources and analytical ability of the regulators severely hampers any enforcement of anti-trust laws.,Uncertain,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 34 | Kaplan,Steven,No Opinion,,,Uncertain,2,,Uncertain,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 35 | Kashyap,Anil,Agree,3,,Strongly Agree,7,,Uncertain,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 36 | Klenow,Pete,Agree,1,,Agree,2,,Uncertain,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 37 | Levin,Jonathan,Disagree,4,,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 38 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,5,,Agree,5,,No Opinion,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 39 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,6,"We are in the early stages, but US v Google will be instructive",Disagree,6,Antitrust division has a good track record.,No Opinion,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 40 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,2,,Agree,2,,Agree,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 41 | Saez,Emmanuel,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 42 | Samuelson,Larry,Uncertain,1,"It is not clear that existing tools are up to the task - we may need a new understanding of natural monopoly, and new ways to deal with it.",Agree,4,,Agree,8,"Proactive, economic-policy-based market guidelines should be more effective than retrospective, legalistic remedies.",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 43 | Scheinkman,José,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5,,No Opinion,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 44 | Schmalensee,Richard,Agree,4,"Probably right, though the AT laws could be tuned, and Judges should become less wedded to simply Old-Chicago stories.",Disagree,4,"Budgets should be increased, but the agencies can still review mergers and bring big conduct cases effectively. ",Disagree,5,"""Effectively,"" perhaps, but most likely at a substantial efficiency cost.",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 45 | Shapiro,Carl,Strongly Agree,10,,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 46 | Shimer,Robert,Agree,5,,Uncertain,1,,No Opinion,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 47 | Stock,James,Uncertain,3,,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 48 | Thaler,Richard,No Opinion,,,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 49 | Udry,Christopher,Disagree,3,,Agree,4,,Uncertain,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 50 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2020-10-06-US-EEP-Economic-Recovery.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,The US economy would be substantially stronger today if the state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had been more uniform and lasted longer in the first half of the year.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,The economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person nationwide.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Uncertain,5,"With better lockdown policies, there would have been tens of thousands of fewer deaths, but probably not much better GDP outcomes.",Agree,2,"The key word is SAFELY. That means COVID is under control. If schools open without that, second wave would be much worse and GDP would fall." 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,3,,Agree,7, 5 | Autor,David,Agree,5,"Korea is the best case scenario. Germany had its act together. The U.S. response was chaotic, and this has slowed the eventual rebound",Agree,6,Boost will come *years later* when students reach the labor market with more skills. Status quo is a disaster for human capital formation! 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Agree,3,,Agree,3, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Uncertain,5,Less people would have died--that is what we know for sure.,Uncertain,5,"I don't know why opening of schools would have a large causal effect, but may be it is a signal the economy can coordinate on." 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Uncertain,5,"more uniform: yes; longer: less clear vs, say, strict mandating of masks and social distancing.",Agree,7, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Uncertain,4,"The intervention should have been earlier, more targeted, and more thoughtful (complemented with more efficient testing and tracing). ",Uncertain,5, 10 | Chetty,Raj,Agree,9,,Agree,9, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Uncertain,4,The economy would be stronger if the stay at home time was used productively to rapidly ramp up testing and other virus responses. ,Agree,7,Opening schools likely has a direct effect but also the question implies an environment in which the virus is under more control. 12 | Cutler,David,Strongly Agree,5,,Agree,5, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Uncertain,7,"There are many many puzzling features of the dynamics of the pandemic, both here and around the world. So hard to know.",Strongly Agree,7,Especially women 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,2,"Yes, although we have since learned that very extensive use of masks, without a stay-at-home order, would have worked and been less costly.",Strongly Agree,2,"Parents could then resume more productive work. Also, this likely generates short-run and long-run benefits for children." 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,6,,Uncertain,8,Likely to depend on time frame. If schools accelerate the virus spread a short-term boost might be more than offset later 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Uncertain,5,Widespread availability of testing enabling targeted stay-at-home orders together with contact tracing would have made for stronger economy,Agree,5,"""as soon as"" is different from ""because"". When schools are safe to open, other activities will also be safe, making for a substantial boost." 17 | Einav,Liran,Agree,1,,Agree,1, 18 | Fair,Ray,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5,"If causality is pandemic over, economy expands and schools open, it is the pandemic over, not the schools opening, that is the cause. " 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Uncertain,3,,Agree,6, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Uncertain,8,We needed to slow the spread of the virus (still do). Consistency would help as would but it isn't just about shelter-in-place ,Strongly Agree,10,You can't go to work if your kid has nowhere to go 22 | Greenstone,Michael,Uncertain,2,"Unclear benefits of stay at home without without rigorous tracing, contact tracing, quarantining etc",Agree,5,I agree bc the question implies that we have a vaccine or herd immunity 23 | Hall,Robert,Disagree,8,Research shows that almost all precautionary behavior would have occurred absent government orders,Agree,7,Ability to have universal K-12 in-person schooling would be a sign of advanced progress in all respects against the virus. 24 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,7,,Agree,7, 25 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,5,,Strongly Agree,5, 26 | Hoxby,Caroline,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 27 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,8,,Agree,8, 28 | Judd,Kenneth,Agree,7,,Agree,6, 29 | Kaplan,Steven,Disagree,6,More targeted lockdowns that encouraged more economic activity would have done better.,Strongly Agree,9, 30 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,5,"Natural caution was very important, hard to know if just stay at home would have been enough to control the virus spread. ",Agree,3,presumably other activities would also become safe then too 31 | Klenow,Pete,Uncertain,5,Voluntary social distancing has been more uniform than lockdown policies.,Agree,4,"Partly causal, but more as an indicator." 32 | Levin,Jonathan,Uncertain,3,,Agree,3, 33 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 34 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,6,Yes if uno]iform pol,Agree,5,‘Safely’ is big part of plan. 35 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,6,,Agree,6, 36 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,4,,Agree,7, 37 | Samuelson,Larry,Strongly Agree,8,"There are great returns to mitigating a potentially exponential process early, and doing so uniformly (to avoid weakest-link vulnerabilies.",Strongly Agree,8,Education has long-run returns as well as well as great short-run returns in facilitating labor force participation of others. 38 | Scheinkman,José,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 39 | Schmalensee,Richard,Uncertain,7,Unknowable. More businesses would have failed early on. Lots would depend on policies after the stay-at-home orders expired. ,Agree,7,"Emphasis on ""safely""." 40 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,6,,Agree,7, 41 | Shimer,Robert,Disagree,5,Stronger lockdowns in some European countries have not prevented the need for second lockdowns.,Agree,7, 42 | Stock,James,Agree,9,"But only if followed up by masks, testing & quarantine, etc upon reopening; more severe shutdowns alone wouldn't keep the virus suppressed.",Strongly Agree,8,The predicate for safe K-12 reopening is suppression of the virus and a strategy to keep it so; that plus freeing parents' time is key. 43 | Thaler,Richard,Uncertain,1,"Yeah, probably but so many variables at play that it is hard to be sure about anything. Laws are not enforced. ",Agree,1,Will certainly help families with small children. Female labor force participation is way down. Same as it ever was. 44 | Udry,Christopher,Agree,6,I would be very confident if the longer & more uniform closings were accompanied by more testing and better tracing.,Strongly Agree,10, 45 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2021-02-02-US-EEP-The-US-Minimum-Wage.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"The current US federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. States can choose whether to have a higher minimum - and many do. 2 | A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 3 | Acemoglu,Daron,Uncertain,5,Evidence is that small increases in min. wage (starting from US lows) don't have large disemployment effects. Don't know what $15 will do,Agree,4,$15 min wage would have very different effects in MA than in AL. But a cost of living adjustment should be legislated at the federal level 4 | Altonji,Joseph,Agree,8,,Agree,6, 5 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,5,,Uncertain,3, 6 | Autor,David,Disagree,5,The weight of the evidence does not support large job loss. But I'm above extra nervous about setting min $15/hr during the pandemic. ,Agree,7,"Although states can & do calibrate upward, the federal min is valuable. Approx 20 states simply adhere to federal lower bound. " 7 | Baicker,Katherine,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3, 8 | Banerjee,Abhijit,No Opinion,,The question seems incomplete. Suppose wages double and employment goes down by 1%. Is that a yes or a no? Also over what time horizon? ,Agree,5, 9 | Bertrand,Marianne,Uncertain,7,,Uncertain,2, 10 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,6, 11 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 12 | Chevalier,Judith,Uncertain,8,"The question says ""lower employment"" rather than ""substantially lower"". No extant study allows us to rule out some employment effects.",Uncertain,8,So much depends on precise design. 13 | Cutler,David,Agree,4,"""Many"" is a tough word. Perhaps many states but for many fewer people.",Agree,5,Minimum likely better than a maximum 14 | Deaton,Angus,Disagree,6,,Disagree,7, 15 | Duffie,Darrell,Uncertain,2,,Uncertain,2, 16 | Edlin,Aaron,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 17 | Eichengreen,Barry,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 18 | Einav,Liran,Agree,1,,Agree,1, 19 | Fair,Ray,Agree,5,,Uncertain,5, 20 | Finkelstein,Amy,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 21 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Uncertain,5,Research has shown modest min. wage increases do not increase unemployment. But going from $6 to $15 in the current situation is not modest.,Agree,5,"Otherwise we end up with a race to the bottom. But should be paired with federal standards on safety, working conditions, etc." 22 | Goolsbee,Austan,Disagree,5,,Agree,5, 23 | Greenstone,Michael,Uncertain,6,uncertain esp about 'many states' bc it is an out of sample increase relative to existing studies & sector under duress with covid fallout,Uncertain,4,design details would matter a lot. quite some appeal to a federal floor that is a function of state/local conditions & pegged to inflation 24 | Hall,Robert,Agree,7,,Uncertain,2,"Hard to guess who would do more harm, feds or states." 25 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 26 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,7,,Agree,4, 27 | Hoxby,Caroline,Agree,10,,Uncertain,10,"If there is a federal minimum, should be pegged to local conditions like cost-of-living. Seems no logic to forbidding state & local role... " 28 | Hoynes,Hilary,Uncertain,8,"Not well worded - I would say DISAGREE if it were ""would not reduce employment substantially"".",Agree,8, 29 | Judd,Kenneth,Agree,7,,Agree,6,"The definition of ""local"" is critical. State-level averages ignore important variations. MSA and county level averages would be better. 30 | " 31 | Kaplan,Steven,Strongly Agree,8,$15 per hour is a high wage in a number of states. Marginal product is less than $15 per hour for many.,Disagree,8,"Would be inclined to let states decide. If they decide well, labor and employers will come. If they decide badly, the states will decline." 32 | Kashyap,Anil,Agree,5,,Uncertain,3,it depends on how much variance would be built in and how the average level were set. 33 | Klenow,Pete,Agree,4,"I think so, but variable effort could mitigate the negative effect.",Uncertain,1, 34 | Levin,Jonathan,Uncertain,3,"Not sure state comparisons make sense - in CA, Bay Area impact might be minimal, and maybe not so in rural areas. ",Uncertain,4,"Indexing is appealing on the pure economics, but I would want to know more about the complexity and implementation. " 35 | Maskin,Eric,Uncertain,4,"An increase to $15/hour is a big jump, and I'm not sure we have the data to know what the effect on employment would be.",Uncertain,4,"Not sure what the question is. Making the federal wage depend on local conditions sounds good, but why not let states top that if they want?" 36 | Nordhaus,William,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 37 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,4,,Uncertain,4,The Fed minimum preferably should be indexed to local conditions. Does not imply (as the question seems to) that states can have no role. 38 | Saez,Emmanuel,Disagree,8,,Agree,5, 39 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,6,"Evidence on employment effects of minimum wages is inconclusive, and the employment losses may well be small. ",Agree,8,Tailoring the minimum wage to local conditions would help ameliorate employment effects. 40 | Scheinkman,José,Uncertain,5,,Disagree,6,A federal minimum wage pegged to state conditions should serve as a floor to a state's minimum wage. 41 | Schmalensee,Richard,Agree,4,"Such a big change would surely have some effect -- not clear it would be large, though.",Strongly Agree,5,"""Preferable"" reflects my preferences, of course, & my belief that in some states the government is hostile to low income workers of color. " 42 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,3,"Demand for labor is presumably downward sloping, but the question does not ask anything about magnitudes. ",Agree,6,A State can set a higher minimum than the federal minimum rate for that State. 43 | Shimer,Robert,Strongly Agree,8,$15 is above the current median hourly wage in several states and close to it in many more. This will dramatically change those economies,Disagree,5,There is value to allowing localities to tailor policies to local preferences. It is hard to see the value of national coordination here 44 | Stock,James,Agree,5,,Agree,7, 45 | Thaler,Richard,Disagree,5,The literature suggests minimal effects on employment. ,Uncertain,1,Hard to say without knowing the details. It is hard to write legislation that is fine-tuned. 46 | Udry,Christopher,Disagree,5,"Perhaps in some of the lowest-wage states, but the evidence is that for most states there would be little effect on employment.",Agree,4,I'm not very confident about how the politics would work. 47 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2020-11-03-US-EEP-Antitrust-in-the-Digital-Economy.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,Google's dominance of the market for internet search arose mainly from a combination of economies of scale and a quality algorithm.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,"In light of Google’s dominance, its current operating practices could have a substantial negative effect on social welfare in the long run.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,The nature of the market dominance of technology giants in the digital economy warrants either the imposition of some kind of regulation or a fundamental change in antitrust policy.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Agree,4,"Quality of algorithm likely play a role early on, but now it's mostly network effects---dominance breeds dominance.",Agree,4,"It walks, swims and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. It looks, behaves and dominates like a monopoly, it'll probably harm welfare. ",Agree,4,This should probably involve more than light-touch regulation. We should also deal with the effects of Big Tech on direction of innovation 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Agree,5,,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,5,,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 5 | Autor,David,Agree,7,"If Google hadn't invented page rank, someone else would have. Google benefited from getting their first with a good idea. ",Agree,6,"I fear Google is becoming the new *old* Microsoft, before the anti-trust case. They may not be doing substantial harm now--but they could",Agree,6,The Sherman Act was not setup for the networked world. Case in point: Facebook should never have been allowed to buy WhatsApp. 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3,,Agree,3, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Agree,7,,Uncertain,5,,Agree,6, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Uncertain,7,,Agree,7,,Strongly Agree,7, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Strongly Agree,8,,Uncertain,6,,Agree,8, 10 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Agree,8,,Uncertain,8,,Disagree,7,"Enforcement of merger policy, eg, would ideally be stronger but I don't think that derives from a fundamental deficiency in the laws." 12 | Cutler,David,Strongly Agree,5,,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Strongly Agree,8,,Agree,7,,Strongly Agree,7, 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,4,,Uncertain,1,"Depends on how Google exercises its market power, and on the quality of potentially superior entrants. Those are beyond my expertise.",Uncertain,2,"Are existing anti-trust laws enough? DOJ seems to think so, and they seemed to work for Bell and Microsoft. For Google: stay tuned. " 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Agree,5,"I go with ""mainly"" but not ""exclusively.""",Agree,5,Overwhelming market dominance creating formidable barriers to entry are not good.,Agree,5,"Absent public-sector intervention, this problem won't solve itself." 17 | Einav,Liran,Strongly Agree,5,,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 18 | Fair,Ray,Agree,5,,Agree,5,,Uncertain,5, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Strongly Agree,8,,Agree,6,"They COULD, this does not mean they WILL. Regulators should be vigilant and scrutinize practices going forward.",Disagree,6,It is not clear what problem the regulator is asked to solve. Being worried about future abuse of power is no justification for regulation. 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Agree,7,,Agree,8,,Agree,6,go look at what happened the last time there was a massive disruption to technology and increase in corporate power 1880-1930 22 | Greenstone,Michael,Agree,8,,Uncertain,7,,Disagree,4,there are always legitimate questions about enforcement but i think the laws are up to the task 23 | Hall,Robert,Agree,9,Not to mention good tiiming.,Disagree,9,"I take it that would mean that regulators are currently passing up a constructive intervention, which is not the case. ",Uncertain,9,"Merger regulation is in place and a good idea. Regulators should understand that there is not competition in the market, but for the market." 24 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,7,,Agree,7,,Agree,7, 25 | Holmström,Bengt,Strongly Agree,7,,Agree,4,Difficult to assess. De facto monopoly due to superior algorithm. Worried about limited contestability and biased ad rankings.,Agree,6,Market values strongly suggests a need for review. Especially now that competition from China curtailed. 26 | Hoxby,Caroline,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 27 | Hoynes,Hilary,Agree,4,,Uncertain,8,,Agree,5, 28 | Judd,Kenneth,Strongly Agree,9,,Uncertain,5,"Fuzzy answer to a fuzzy question. ""Could"" have negative impact, yes. But current operations includes creation and sharing of powerful tools.",Disagree,7,A key point in the current discussion is the Apple-Google arrangement. I guess that current law can handle this; no need for new rules. 29 | Kaplan,Steven,Agree,8,,Disagree,5,,Disagree,6, 30 | Kashyap,Anil,Agree,7,"Better product and as more people adopted it, it kept improving ",Agree,1,I am no expert and the question says could not will. See the paper below for a mechanism by which this could happen. ,No Opinion,,"I don't know. How do we know what kind of changes would result, and probably they would not just be designed based on economic principles" 31 | Klenow,Pete,Agree,4,,Agree,2,,Uncertain,3, 32 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,5,,Uncertain,4,"Struggling with question framing. Some practices deserve scrutiny. On net, however, its products & services create enormous value.",Agree,3,"To take one example - thoughtful, informed regulation is needed in areas like privacy and data rights." 33 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,5,,Agree,5,,Agree,4, 34 | Nordhaus,William,Agree,5,,Agree,4,,Disagree,5, 35 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Agree,3,,Agree,3,,Agree,3, 36 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,5,,Agree,7,,Agree,6, 37 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,8,,Agree,8,"Innovation brought Google to a dominant position, but Google bars no holds in preserving that position, with adverse consequences.",Agree,8,"The tech industry is rife with natural monopolies, which are routinely regulated in other sectors." 38 | Scheinkman,José,Agree,7,,Uncertain,4,,Agree,7,Need to increase scrutiny of acquisitions of related businesses e.g. WhatsApp by Facebook. 39 | Schmalensee,Richard,Strongly Agree,7,There is no other serious story.,Agree,2,I don't know enough about its current operating practices to be very confident.,Uncertain,7,"Those sorts of changes surely deserve serious consideration, but I'm not confident that we can find changes that are net beneficial." 40 | Shapiro,Carl,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 41 | Shimer,Robert,Strongly Agree,10,,Agree,5,"The key word in the question is ""could."" It could also have a substantial positive effect, as it has in the past.",Disagree,7,"We are yet to see evidence of significant damage caused by these firms, but do see substantial social benefits." 42 | Stock,James,Agree,4,,Uncertain,4,,Uncertain,4, 43 | Thaler,Richard,Agree,5,,Uncertain,1,"I have no idea how to answer this question.It is true that *any* large company could do damage, but I would single out Google for worry. ",Uncertain,1,"It is hard to favor unspecified changes in the rules. I don't think Google should be able to buy Waze, nor Facebook buy Instagram. 44 | " 45 | Udry,Christopher,Strongly Agree,5,,Agree,4,,Uncertain,4, 46 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2023_surveys/2023-01-18-US-EEP-Non-Compete-Clauses.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,Prohibiting firms from imposing employment contract provisions that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business would lead to a substantial increase in wages in the affected industries.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable increase in innovation.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable reduction in firms’ investment in staff training.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Uncertain,4,"Non-compete clauses excessively empower firms and are not justified by the arguments their proponents offer. Nevertheless, there is no convincing evidence yet that they have a big impact on wages.",Uncertain,4,Same as the previous question. The evidence is not there yet.,Disagree,4,There is no evidence that firms are investing in training because of non-competes. 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Agree,6,,Uncertain,4,"Noncompetes help firms protect intellectual property, but they reduce the ability of new competitors to assemble a workforce.",Uncertain,3, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3,,Agree,3, 5 | Autor,David,Uncertain,6,"Noncompetes are abused by U.S. employers and pertain in sectors where trade secrets cannot possibly be relevant (e.g., sandwich makers at fast food restaurants). But we have no evidentiary basis for saying how large a wage or mobility impact this will have in the U.S. ",Uncertain,5,No info on this.,Uncertain,5,"Just don't have enough evidence to make any quantitative statement, even a qualitative quantitative statement(such as ""a measurable reduction""). " 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,7,,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,4, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 10 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Uncertain,5,Empirical evidence that I am aware of is linked but I think overall magnitudes very hard to predict. ,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,6,"Tricky and depends on treatment of contractual workarounds (repayment of specific training expenses, etc); incentives to self-financed training of course higher. " 12 | Cutler,David,Agree,4,,Agree,2,,Uncertain,5, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Agree,5,,Agree,5,,Agree,4, 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,1,"Seems somewhat likely, but I don't have much conviction here, because this could radically change supply and demand in the related employment market in ways that I have difficulty predicting.",Agree,1,"Again, I don't have conviction. For example, maybe I am wrong because a ban could make hiring the affected experts become uneconomic. ",Uncertain,1, 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,4,The FTC has put together some evidence on this point. ,Agree,3,California provides some limited evidence. ,Agree,4,Theory suggests some effect. 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Uncertain,5,Substantial?,Agree,5,,Uncertain,5, 17 | Einav,Liran,Agree,1,,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1, 18 | Fair,Ray,Agree,5,,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,5, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Disagree,6,Non-competes are typically valid for one year. It is unlikely that a one-year restriction would have substantial effects.,Disagree,5,See previous answer,Disagree,5,See previous answer 21 | Greenstone,Michael,Uncertain,4,"more evidence is necessary to get to ""substantial""",Uncertain,3,,Agree,4, 22 | Hall,Robert,Uncertain,1,,Disagree,2,Protection of IP may be important for innovation,Agree,1, 23 | Hart,Oliver,Uncertain,5,"Ex post, more competition for labor will increase the wage. But initial wages may be be lower because firms don't have to offer so much given that workers can move later.",Uncertain,5,Ideas will move more easily but firms will have less incentive to innovate given that their intellectual property rights are less secure.,Agree,6,"With respect to training in general skills, yes. With respect to training in specific skills, less clear." 24 | Holmström,Bengt,Uncertain,6,,Agree,4,,Uncertain,4, 25 | Hoxby,Caroline,Agree,10,,Uncertain,10,,Agree,5, 26 | Hoynes,Hilary,Uncertain,8,The key word is substantial. I think it will increase wages not not sure if substantial. ,Uncertain,5,I don’t know of research on this. ,Disagree,8, 27 | Judd,Kenneth,Uncertain,6,,Agree,6,Non-compete clauses may protect employers' intellectual property but my guess is that they are overly broad and firms' deep pockets deter legal action against inefficient restrictions on employee movement. The net effect of limiting no-complete clauses would be positive.,Uncertain,6, 28 | Kaplan,Steven,Disagree,5,Unlikely to be a large effect.,Disagree,3,,Uncertain,8,Depends on the industry. 29 | Kashyap,Anil,Uncertain,3,"The sign is right, but magnitude is unclear to me. Given that California already does not enforce them seems like there should a literature on this, hope other panelists can point to the best papers on this. ",Agree,1,,Disagree,2,I doubt the people being forced to sign are getting explicit training. 30 | Klenow,Pete,Agree,3,,Uncertain,2,,Uncertain,1, 31 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,3,,Agree,3,,Disagree,3, 32 | Maskin,Eric,Uncertain,5,"The direct effect should be an increase in wages because of the increase in competition. However, conceivably, there could be a general equilibrium effect that makes the entire industry less profitable---and thereby lowers workers' marginal products",Uncertain,5,"An increase in innovation is one possibility, since ideas would be spread more widely. But a decrease is also possible, since inventors would have a harder time getting a return on their investment",Agree,6,A firm is less likely to invest in an employee's human capital if that employee can turn around and work for the employee's competitor 33 | Nordhaus,William,Disagree,4,,Agree,3,"I think positive would be more accurate, but it would help.",Uncertain,5, 34 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,3,,Disagree,3,,Uncertain,3, 35 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,6,,Agree,4,,Uncertain,5, 36 | Samuelson,Larry,Uncertain,1,"There are conflicting effects: banning non-competes would enhance the bargaining power of employees, but if firms invest less in employee training, may make employees less valuable.",Agree,6,"Unsure about the magnitude, but removing a constraint should enhance innovation.",Agree,8,One expects firms to be leery of employees taking the gains from training elsewhere. 37 | Scheinkman,José,Uncertain,5,Not sure about substantial,Disagree,4,See Carlino 2021 (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia),Agree,5, 38 | Schmalensee,Richard,Uncertain,5,"I think ""substantial"" is probably too strong.",Agree,5,,Agree,5, 39 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,4,,Agree,3,,Agree,4, 40 | Shimer,Robert,Uncertain,5,"In the short run, this would put upward pressure on wages of workers currently in non-compete agreements. In the long run, it would restructure employment relationships, lower productivity, and hence adversely affect earnings.",Disagree,7,,Agree,7, 41 | Stock,James,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 42 | Thaler,Richard,Disagree,4,,Disagree,5,,Disagree,5, 43 | Udry,Christopher,Agree,5,,Disagree,4,"The effects on discouraging training and on increasing cross firm flows of info offset, probably limiting net changes. ",Agree,5, 44 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2023_surveys/2023-06-21-US-EEP-Junk-Fees.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,"An $8 cap on late fees for credit cards, as proposed by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,"Requiring that all credit card fees and interest rates be transparent, prominently displayed, and easily searchable online would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less.,Consumers would be measurably better off if efforts to reduce the impact of so-called ‘junk fees’ across the economy concentrated on making fees more transparent than on capping specific types of fees.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 280 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3,"It is uncertain whether most customers would search, process and act on this type of information, given busy schedules, other transaction costs and sometimes low financial literacy.",Uncertain,3,"I am not convinced that transparency would work by itself. Capping fees could backfire, especially if these caps are excessively tight. But on balance, regulation may be better for ticketing consumers than just transparency. Still there is much uncertainty." 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Uncertain,2,,Agree,2,,Disagree,3, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,3, 5 | Autor,David,Uncertain,6,"This definitely reduce credit card fees. I also suspect this would it be harder for people with relatively low credit scores to get credit cards. In the worst case, more people low-credit borrowers will be forced to use payday lenders, which will be much more expensive ",Uncertain,7,This won't hurt. But I don't think it will have a substantial effect. People have self-control problems and succumb to myopic behavior in borrowing and repayment. ,Uncertain,6,I'm not sure that people respond strongly to this type of information. But I favor trying it. There's no good-for-consumer reasons that this information is made obscure. And the fact that is often hidden suggests that lenders believe that revealing it would save consumers money. 6 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 7 | Bertrand,Marianne,Agree,6,,Strongly Agree,8,,Agree,5, 8 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Strongly Agree,9,,Uncertain,5,,Uncertain,6, 9 | Chetty,Raj,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 10 | Chevalier,Judith,Uncertain,8,The CARD Act evidence suggests fee caps may not be entirely be made up w other fees.,Uncertain,7,,Uncertain,8, 11 | Cutler,David,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3,,Disagree,3, 12 | Deaton,Angus,Uncertain,5,,Agree,4,,Strongly Agree,6, 13 | Duffie,Darrell,Agree,6,,Disagree,9,"Most of the costs are borne through the effect of merchant fees, especially interchange fees. Consumers bear these indirectly through merchant prices. Consumers will tend to pay more attention to the rewards funded by merchant fees. More competition might backfire. See Wang, 2023",Disagree,4,"Consumers are not so attentive to banking markups. For example, they have trillions of dollars of deposits on which the receive almost no interest." 14 | Edlin,Aaron,Uncertain,6,,Agree,7,,Agree,4, 15 | Eichengreen,Barry,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 16 | Einav,Liran,Disagree,1,,Disagree,1,,Agree,1, 17 | Fair,Ray,Agree,1,,Agree,5,,Agree,5, 18 | Finkelstein,Amy,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 19 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Agree,5,,Disagree,6,,Disagree,6, 20 | Greenstone,Michael,Disagree,4,,Agree,2,,Agree,2, 21 | Hall,Robert,Uncertain,7,"The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2023, surveyed research showing that almost all casual thinking on this topic is quite wrong--transparency and the like steers people in just the wrong direction.",Disagree,7,see previous question,Disagree,7,"again, see first question" 22 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,6,,Agree,7,,Disagree,6, 23 | Holmström,Bengt,Agree,5,,Strongly Agree,5,,Uncertain,3, 24 | Hoxby,Caroline,Uncertain,10,,Agree,5,,Agree,6, 25 | Hoynes,Hilary,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5,,No Opinion,, 26 | Judd,Kenneth,Disagree,6,"For most people, the benefits would be small.",Agree,4,,Agree,7,I doubt any regulator could find a good set of caps nor could one change the caps in response to new conditions. Transparency is better. 27 | Kaplan,Steven,Disagree,8,"Credit card companies will adjust prices, products and availability to offset. Overall costs (net of benefits) to consumers not likely decrease much. 28 | Possible for consumers to be worse off.",Uncertain,5,Mixed evidence on effects of transparency to consumers in other arenas.,Agree,3," Not sure what transparency does, but better than fixing prices / capping fees. Generally not a good idea to fix prices / cap fees. " 29 | Kashyap,Anil,Agree,3,,Uncertain,1,,Uncertain,1, 30 | Klenow,Pete,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3,,Uncertain,2, 31 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,3,,Uncertain,4,,Disagree,5, 32 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,5,,Agree,5,,Uncertain,4,I don't know whether consumers are rational enough to do better with transparency than with a paternalistic cap. 33 | Nordhaus,William,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 34 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Agree,3,,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3, 35 | Saez,Emmanuel,Agree,5,,Agree,6,,Uncertain,5, 36 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,6,"Some consumers will see reduced fees, but some others may be excluded from the market.",Agree,6,,Uncertain,1,"The policies are complementary, and versions of both could be pursued. 37 | " 38 | Scheinkman,José,Disagree,7,"If the goal is to help relatively low income credit card users, who typically use basic cards, it would be better to cap the interchange fees charged by the duopoly like it was done by the EU. ",Agree,6,,Uncertain,7,"Some fees are so egregious that consumers may not even search for them. At a minimum, forcing firms to display an all inclusive cost at the time of booking or ordering, is necessary. " 39 | Schmalensee,Richard,Disagree,4,"""As much as $9 billion"" in savings (per the CFPB) doesn't seem to me to pass the substantiality test in aggregate -- though it may be very important to some.",Disagree,4,"Most consumers dont think these fees will matter to them and won't research them. Those who do get stung with late fees, on the other hand, are painfully aware of them.",Uncertain,6,"This is the standard economist's line, but I don't think it works well for fees that most people can rationally ignore because they are unlikely to pay them. (Does everyone on this panel know the late fees for all -- or even any -- of their cards?)" 40 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,4,,Agree,2,,Disagree,2, 41 | Shimer,Robert,Disagree,7,Either fees will be shifted elsewhere or consumers who regularly incur late fees will lose access to credit.,Uncertain,1,,Agree,5, 42 | Stock,James,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 43 | Thaler,Richard,Disagree,7,"Of course banks can increase other fees, but still the CFPB does seem to have shamed some large banks to eliminate these fees paid mostly by the poor. ",Uncertain,7,Don’t know whether enough consumers would shop for this to get up to “substantial” but worth doing. ,Strongly Agree,7,Especially true for mortgages. 44 | Udry,Christopher,Disagree,4,"Perhaps in the short term, but I have little doubt in the capacity of credit card issuers to find innovative ways of hiding charges.",Agree,2,"Of course, the details matter. I worry that issuers might be similarly creative in circumventing transparency requirements. But a broad requirement of openness might be relatively easy to enforce.",Agree,1, 45 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /2021_surveys/2020-11-24-US-EEP-Student-Debt-Forgiveness.csv: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | Last Name,First Name,Having the government issue additional debt to pay off all current outstanding student loans would be net regressive.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,"Having the government issue enough additional debt to pay off student loans up to a threshold, for borrowers whose income is below a certain level, could be progressive.",Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less.,Extension of the suspension of payments on student loans after the end of the year would support the recovery more effectively than devoting equivalent resources to general income-based transfer payments.,Confidence in this topic (10 being the highest).,Please explain your response in 140 characters or less. 2 | Acemoglu,Daron,Uncertain,3,Would depend on how it's done. Yes lots of student debt among those earning more than 100K a year. So risk of handout to yuppies is there.,Agree,4,"Yes this would be much better. Student debt is a problem for low and middle income households, not those earning more than 100K or 150K.",Agree,4,"Unemployment benefits, aid to states and general stimulus would be more effective in the current pandemic environment." 3 | Altonji,Joseph,Agree,8,College graduates and advanced degree holders have higher earnings along with student loans.,Agree,6,,Uncertain,5, 4 | Auerbach,Alan,Agree,7,,Agree,7,,Disagree,5, 5 | Autor,David,Strongly Agree,10,"Alongside my kids' student loans, I'd like the government to pay off my mortgage. If the latter idea shocks you, the first one should too",Agree,6,"This could create terrible incentives, both for labor supply and (bad) educational investments. Proceed with great caution",Disagree,6,General income-based transfer payments could always be used to pay student loans. That's the beauty of cash over in-kind transfers 6 | Baicker,Katherine,Agree,3,,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3, 7 | Banerjee,Abhijit,Agree,5,The answer depends on the financing of the extra government debt. I am assuming that it will be financed like everything else,Agree,7,,Disagree,1, 8 | Bertrand,Marianne,Uncertain,4,,Agree,5,,Disagree,4, 9 | Brunnermeier,Markus,Uncertain,3,,Agree,8,,Uncertain,4, 10 | Chetty,Raj,Agree,8,,Strongly Agree,9,,Disagree,7, 11 | Chevalier,Judith,Agree,8,"While the Dynarski paper I cite is a few years old, the central finding that many people with substantial earnings have loans remains true.",Agree,5,There is evidence that extant income driven repayment plans are underutilized.Some form of ex post IDR strategy likely sensible. . ,Disagree,7, 12 | Cutler,David,Uncertain,5,"This is a factual question, and I don't know the answer to it.",Strongly Agree,5,,Uncertain,5, 13 | Deaton,Angus,Strongly Agree,8,,Agree,8,,Disagree,6, 14 | Duffie,Darrell,Uncertain,1,Stanford MBAs have a lot of student debt. But have high human capital. I just don't know the cross section of borrowers well enough.,Agree,2,The question is so carefully hedged that it's hard to disagree!,Uncertain,1,"To me, that seems to require a very hard calculation." 15 | Edlin,Aaron,Agree,7,College graduates earn more than nongraduates though presumably those who pay off loans or didn’t borrow and wouldn’t benefit earn even more,Agree,7,It would depend on the threshold. ,Disagree,7,Targeting aid to those who need it is most humane. That is probably also the best stimulus. Though stimulus doesn’t stop the pandemic 16 | Eichengreen,Barry,Uncertain,5,,Agree,5,,Uncertain,5, 17 | Einav,Liran,Uncertain,1,,Agree,1,,No Opinion,, 18 | Fair,Ray,Uncertain,5,It depends on how the government debt will eventually be paid off.,Uncertain,5,"Again, it depends on how the government debt will eventually be paid off. ",Disagree,5, 19 | Finkelstein,Amy,Uncertain,5,,Strongly Agree,5,,Disagree,3, 20 | Goldberg,Pinelopi,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,,,Did Not Answer,, 21 | Goolsbee,Austan,Uncertain,6,"The largest dollar amounts student debt come fr/professional schools--MD, JD, MBAs-. Waiving those is high income oriented.",Strongly Agree,1,,Uncertain,6,We do know one thing for certain: targeted debt relief is more stimulus than Congress not being able to do anything 22 | Greenstone,Michael,Strongly Agree,7,,Uncertain,2,,Strongly Disagree,5, 23 | Hall,Robert,Uncertain,1,"Depends on how the incremental debt is financed, a guessing game. But why would we think of paying off debt of people who are well off?",Agree,10,Anything is possible. But this would add another piece to the dependency barrier to work,Disagree,3,"Again, why do this for prosperous people with student debt?" 24 | Hart,Oliver,Agree,5,,Agree,6,,Disagree,5, 25 | Holmström,Bengt,Uncertain,3,,Agree,3,,Uncertain,3, 26 | Hoxby,Caroline,Strongly Agree,10,,Uncertain,10,"An empirical, not logical, question.It would depend on the details.Data/analysis would be needed.No serious person answers with certainty.",Uncertain,10,"People w student loans vary from young, living w parents, to older, supporting family on a reduced income.This would poorly targeted relief." 27 | Hoynes,Hilary,Uncertain,8,,Agree,8,,Disagree,8, 28 | Judd,Kenneth,Strongly Agree,9,,Agree,7,,Disagree,6,Transfer payments should be aimed at low income and liquidity constrained people. Many with student debt are liquidity constrained. 29 | Kaplan,Steven,Agree,3,"Whether regressive or not, it is not a good idea for fairness and efficiency reasons.",Agree,7,"Not a great question. If you do it for low enough incomes, it will be progressive. It is still not a good idea.",Disagree,5,Suspect you could target aid to those more in need than the typical student loan recipient. 30 | Kashyap,Anil,Strongly Agree,7,"google adam looney student loans, below is just one example ",Agree,5,"depends on the threshold and the limit, but chosen carefully this could be progressive. there are still major fairness issues with this idea",Uncertain,3,lots of moving parts to calculate the benefits from this policy. 31 | Klenow,Pete,Agree,3,Student loan debt / income looks like it is increasing in income.,Agree,5,,Uncertain,3, 32 | Levin,Jonathan,Agree,4,,Uncertain,3,"Perhaps, but seems unlikely if you’re providing funds only to people who have attended college. ",Disagree,3, 33 | Maskin,Eric,Agree,5, Blanket loan forgiveness would help those who went to college at the expense of those who didn't,Agree,7,,Uncertain,4, 34 | Nordhaus,William,No Opinion,,,Agree,3,,Disagree,6, 35 | Obstfeld,Maurice,Uncertain,4,,Agree,4,,Uncertain,4, 36 | Saez,Emmanuel,Uncertain,7,"Depends on how the government debt is going be repaid: progressive vs. regressive taxation, or implicit inflation tax ",Agree,8,,Uncertain,6,Cancelling interest on student debt is easy to implement. Income based transfers based on current income (not past year income) is very hard 37 | Samuelson,Larry,Agree,8,,Agree,8,,Uncertain,1,"Both would support recovery, but would be most effective if targeted to those in most need, and its not clear which would do this better. " 38 | Scheinkman,José,Agree,7,,Agree,7,,Disagree,7,However it may be easier to suspend student-loan payments than to pass income-based transfer payments with a Republican Senate. 39 | Schmalensee,Richard,Agree,3,"Because of for-profit schools that added little value, one can't be confident that former students have above-average median wealth. ",Agree,4,"Seems more likely than not, if ""income"" is properly measured.",Uncertain,6,Too many unknown. 40 | Shapiro,Carl,Agree,6,,Agree,8,,Uncertain,4, 41 | Shimer,Robert,Agree,6,This is relative to other ways the government typically makes transfer payments,Agree,6,But this may also lead to high implicit marginal tax rates and hence poor incentives,Agree,6,General income-based transfer payments are ill-conceived until after a vaccine is widely available. This is faint praise for loan suspension 42 | Stock,James,Agree,3,,Agree,4,,Disagree,3, 43 | Thaler,Richard,Strongly Agree,5,,Uncertain,1,Depends on the details,Disagree,5,Seems like a weak stimulus. College grads are already saving a lot. Its the bottom quartile that needs help the most and will spend it. 44 | Udry,Christopher,Agree,7,,Strongly Agree,6,"The design is not trivial, but it could be done.",Disagree,7, 45 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /extract_pca.ipynb: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | { 2 | "cells": [ 3 | { 4 | "cell_type": "code", 5 | "execution_count": 360, 6 | "metadata": {}, 7 | "outputs": [], 8 | "source": [ 9 | "import numpy as np\n", 10 | "import pandas as pd\n", 11 | "import json\n", 12 | "from os import listdir\n", 13 | "import re\n", 14 | "from scipy.linalg import eig\n", 15 | "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", 16 | "from string import ascii_uppercase\n", 17 | "import unidecode" 18 | ] 19 | }, 20 | { 21 | "cell_type": "code", 22 | "execution_count": 361, 23 | "metadata": {}, 24 | "outputs": [], 25 | "source": [ 26 | "def pca(X):\n", 27 | " ''' Principal Components Analysis '''\n", 28 | " cov_matrix = np.cov(X.T) # Transpose b/c np.cov assumes row vars.\n", 29 | " evals, evecs = eig(cov_matrix)\n", 30 | " idcs = np.argsort(evals)[::-1]\n", 31 | " evecs = evecs.real[:, idcs]\n", 32 | " evals = evals.real[idcs]\n", 33 | "\n", 34 | " return evecs, evals" 35 | ] 36 | }, 37 | { 38 | "cell_type": "code", 39 | "execution_count": 362, 40 | "metadata": {}, 41 | "outputs": [], 42 | "source": [ 43 | "def preprocess(df):\n", 44 | "\n", 45 | " old_vals = ['Strongly Disagree',\n", 46 | " 'Disagree',\n", 47 | " 'Uncertain',\n", 48 | " 'Agree',\n", 49 | " 'Strongly Agree',\n", 50 | " 'No Opinion',\n", 51 | " 'Did Not Answer',\n", 52 | " 'Did Not Vote',\n", 53 | " 'Did not answer',\n", 54 | " None]\n", 55 | " new_vals = [-1.5,\n", 56 | " -1,\n", 57 | " 0,\n", 58 | " 1,\n", 59 | " 1.5,\n", 60 | " np.nan,\n", 61 | " np.nan,\n", 62 | " np.nan,\n", 63 | " np.nan,\n", 64 | " np.nan]\n", 65 | "\n", 66 | " df = df.replace(old_vals, new_vals)\n", 67 | "\n", 68 | " # Only retain responders with > 75% response rate\n", 69 | " num_questions = len(df.columns)\n", 70 | " df = df[df.notnull().sum(axis=1) > (num_questions * 0.75)]\n", 71 | "\n", 72 | " # Replace remaining nans with the column mean\n", 73 | " df = df.fillna(df.mean())\n", 74 | "\n", 75 | " df = df.sort_index()\n", 76 | " return df" 77 | ] 78 | }, 79 | { 80 | "cell_type": "code", 81 | "execution_count": 363, 82 | "metadata": {}, 83 | "outputs": [], 84 | "source": [ 85 | "year = '2023'\n", 86 | "survey_dir = f'{year}_surveys'" 87 | ] 88 | }, 89 | { 90 | "cell_type": "code", 91 | "execution_count": 364, 92 | "metadata": {}, 93 | "outputs": [], 94 | "source": [ 95 | "fnames_to_slugs = {\n", 96 | "\n", 97 | "'2023-01-18-US-EEP-Non-Compete-Clauses.csv': 'non-compete-clauses',\n", 98 | "'2023-05-09-US-EEP-TikTok.csv': 'tiktok',\n", 99 | "'2023-06-21-US-EEP-Junk-Fees.csv': 'junk-fees',\n", 100 | "'2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-Market-Power.csv': 'ai-and-market-power',\n", 101 | "'2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-the-Labor-Market.csv': 'ai-and-the-labor-market',\n", 102 | "'2023-09-29-US-EEP-Subsidizing-Green-Technology.csv': 'subsidizing-green-technology',\n", 103 | "'2023-09-29-US-EEP-Responses-To-Market-Power.csv': 'responses-to-market-power',\n", 104 | "\n", 105 | "}\n", 106 | "\n", 107 | "\n", 108 | "\n", 109 | "fnames_to_headers = {\n", 110 | "\n", 111 | "'2023-01-18-US-EEP-Non-Compete-Clauses.csv': 'Non-Compete Clauses',\n", 112 | "'2023-05-09-US-EEP-TikTok.csv': 'TikTok',\n", 113 | "'2023-06-21-US-EEP-Junk-Fees.csv': 'Junk Fees',\n", 114 | "'2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-Market-Power.csv': 'AI and Market Power',\n", 115 | "'2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-the-Labor-Market.csv': 'AI and the Labor Market',\n", 116 | "'2023-09-29-US-EEP-Subsidizing-Green-Technology.csv': 'Subsidizing Green Technology',\n", 117 | "'2023-09-29-US-EEP-Responses-To-Market-Power.csv': 'Responses to Market Power',\n", 118 | "\n", 119 | "}\n", 120 | "\n", 121 | "fnames_to_dates = {fname: fname[0:10] for fname in fnames_to_headers.keys()}" 122 | ] 123 | }, 124 | { 125 | "cell_type": "code", 126 | "execution_count": 365, 127 | "metadata": {}, 128 | "outputs": [ 129 | { 130 | "data": { 131 | "text/plain": [ 132 | "{'2023-01-18-US-EEP-Non-Compete-Clauses.csv': '2023-01-18',\n", 133 | " '2023-05-09-US-EEP-TikTok.csv': '2023-05-09',\n", 134 | " '2023-06-21-US-EEP-Junk-Fees.csv': '2023-06-21',\n", 135 | " '2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-Market-Power.csv': '2023-09-21',\n", 136 | " '2023-09-21-US-EEP-AI-and-the-Labor-Market.csv': '2023-09-21',\n", 137 | " '2023-09-29-US-EEP-Subsidizing-Green-Technology.csv': '2023-09-29',\n", 138 | " '2023-09-29-US-EEP-Responses-To-Market-Power.csv': '2023-09-29'}" 139 | ] 140 | }, 141 | "execution_count": 365, 142 | "metadata": {}, 143 | "output_type": "execute_result" 144 | } 145 | ], 146 | "source": [ 147 | "fnames_to_dates" 148 | ] 149 | }, 150 | { 151 | "cell_type": "code", 152 | "execution_count": 367, 153 | "metadata": {}, 154 | "outputs": [], 155 | "source": [ 156 | "fnames = sorted(fnames_to_slugs.keys())\n", 157 | "fnames = ['2023-06-21-US-EEP-Junk-Fees.csv'] + [fname for fname in fnames if fname != '2023-06-21-US-EEP-Junk-Fees.csv']\n", 158 | "\n", 159 | "qdfs = []\n", 160 | "slugs = []\n", 161 | "headers = []\n", 162 | "dates = []\n", 163 | "for fname in fnames:\n", 164 | " qdf = pd.read_csv(survey_dir + '/' + fname)\n", 165 | " qdf = qdf.set_index(qdf['First Name'].str.cat(qdf['Last Name'], sep=' '))\n", 166 | " drop_columns = [col for col in qdf.columns if 'Confidence in this topic' in col or 'Please explain your' in col or 'Unnamed' in col]\n", 167 | " drop_columns += ['First Name', 'Last Name']\n", 168 | " qdf = qdf.drop(columns=drop_columns)\n", 169 | " qdf = qdf[qdf.index.notnull()]\n", 170 | " n_cols = len(qdf.columns)\n", 171 | " if n_cols > 1:\n", 172 | " # qdf.columns = [f\"Part {ascii_uppercase[i]}: {col}\" for i, col in enumerate(qdf.columns)]\n", 173 | " qdf.columns = [f\"{i+1}. {col}\" for i, col in enumerate(qdf.columns)]\n", 174 | " \n", 175 | " qdfs += [qdf]\n", 176 | " for col in qdf.columns:\n", 177 | " slugs += [fnames_to_slugs[fname]]\n", 178 | " headers += [fnames_to_headers[fname]]\n", 179 | " dates += [fnames_to_dates[fname]]\n", 180 | "\n", 181 | "df = pd.concat(qdfs, axis=1)\n", 182 | "# df.columns = [f\"{i+1}. {col}\" for i, col in enumerate(df.columns)]\n" 183 | ] 184 | }, 185 | { 186 | "cell_type": "code", 187 | "execution_count": 368, 188 | "metadata": {}, 189 | "outputs": [], 190 | "source": [ 191 | "df = preprocess(df)" 192 | ] 193 | }, 194 | { 195 | "cell_type": "code", 196 | "execution_count": 369, 197 | "metadata": {}, 198 | "outputs": [], 199 | "source": [ 200 | "X_raw = np.array(df).astype(float)\n", 201 | "q_means = X_raw.mean(axis=0)\n", 202 | "q_sds = X_raw.std(axis=0)" 203 | ] 204 | }, 205 | { 206 | "cell_type": "code", 207 | "execution_count": 370, 208 | "metadata": {}, 209 | "outputs": [], 210 | "source": [ 211 | "# Separate responder IDs from row names\n", 212 | "responder_ids = list(range(len(df)))\n", 213 | "\n", 214 | "# Compute +/- 2SD for each question. For yellow highlights.\n", 215 | "X_raw = np.array(df).astype(float)\n", 216 | "q_means = X_raw.mean(axis=0)\n", 217 | "q_sds = X_raw.std(axis=0)\n", 218 | "igm_top_range = 2 * q_sds # Responses will be centered with q_means in .js\n", 219 | "igm_bot_range = (-2) * q_sds # Responses will be centered with q_means in .js\n", 220 | "\n", 221 | "# Centering the questions\n", 222 | "X = X_raw - X_raw.mean(axis=0)\n", 223 | "\n", 224 | "# Run PCA and compute 2D projection\n", 225 | "evecs, evals = pca(X)" 226 | ] 227 | }, 228 | { 229 | "cell_type": "code", 230 | "execution_count": 371, 231 | "metadata": {}, 232 | "outputs": [ 233 | { 234 | "name": "stdout", 235 | "output_type": "stream", 236 | "text": [ 237 | "hi\n" 238 | ] 239 | } 240 | ], 241 | "source": [ 242 | "if year in ('2021', '2023'):\n", 243 | " evecs[:,1] = evecs[:,1] #X\n", 244 | " evecs[:,0] = -evecs[:,0]\n", 245 | " print('hi')\n", 246 | " \n", 247 | "# Compute each economists projection in 2D space.\n", 248 | "proj = np.dot(X, evecs[:, 0:2])\n", 249 | "\n", 250 | "# Sign flipping so politically left is on the left\n", 251 | "\n", 252 | "\n", 253 | "# User info dict\n", 254 | "user_info = {'name': 'You',\n", 255 | " 'x': 0,\n", 256 | " 'y': 0,\n", 257 | " 'responder_id': 0}" 258 | ] 259 | }, 260 | { 261 | "cell_type": "code", 262 | "execution_count": 372, 263 | "metadata": {}, 264 | "outputs": [], 265 | "source": [ 266 | "# Get correlation matrix, sorted by position on x-axis.\n", 267 | "pc1_order = np.argsort(proj[:, 0])\n", 268 | "corr_mat = np.corrcoef(X_raw[pc1_order, :])\n", 269 | "\n", 270 | "# List of responder info dicts, including user dict\n", 271 | "points = [user_info]\n", 272 | "assert(len(df)==len(proj))\n", 273 | "for i in range(len(proj)):\n", 274 | " responder_info = {'name': df.index[i],\n", 275 | " 'x': proj[i, 0],\n", 276 | " 'y': proj[i, 1],\n", 277 | " 'short_name': unidecode.unidecode(df.index[i].lower().replace(' ', '-')),\n", 278 | " 'pc1_order': int(np.argwhere(pc1_order == i))}\n", 279 | " points.append(responder_info)" 280 | ] 281 | }, 282 | { 283 | "cell_type": "code", 284 | "execution_count": 373, 285 | "metadata": {}, 286 | "outputs": [], 287 | "source": [ 288 | "out = {}\n", 289 | "out['points'] = points\n", 290 | "out['q_slugs'] = slugs\n", 291 | "out['q_headers'] = headers\n", 292 | "out['q_dates'] = dates\n", 293 | "out['questions'] = [re.sub(r\"\\(0+\", \"(\", col) for col in df.columns]\n", 294 | "out['q_means'] = list(q_means)\n", 295 | "out['xweights'] = list(evecs[:, 0])\n", 296 | "out['yweights'] = list(evecs[:, 1])\n", 297 | "out['X'] = [['%.2f' % el for el in row] for row in X.tolist()]\n", 298 | "out['corr_mat'] = [['%.2f' % el for el in row]\n", 299 | " for row in corr_mat.tolist()]\n", 300 | "out['igm_top_range'] = ['%.2f' % el for el in igm_top_range]\n", 301 | "out['igm_bot_range'] = ['%.2f' % el for el in igm_bot_range]" 302 | ] 303 | }, 304 | { 305 | "cell_type": "code", 306 | "execution_count": 374, 307 | "metadata": {}, 308 | "outputs": [ 309 | { 310 | "data": { 311 | "image/png": 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", 312 | "text/plain": [ 313 | "
" 314 | ] 315 | }, 316 | "metadata": {}, 317 | "output_type": "display_data" 318 | } 319 | ], 320 | "source": [ 321 | "# Write to file\n", 322 | "f = open(\"pca_results_\" + year + \".json\", \"w\")\n", 323 | "json.dump(out, f, indent=2)\n", 324 | "f.close()\n", 325 | "\n", 326 | "# Plot responders in 2D space\n", 327 | "plt.figure()\n", 328 | "plt.scatter(proj[:, 0], proj[:, 1])\n", 329 | "plt.show()" 330 | ] 331 | }, 332 | { 333 | "cell_type": "code", 334 | "execution_count": 375, 335 | "metadata": {}, 336 | "outputs": [ 337 | { 338 | "data": { 339 | "text/plain": [ 340 | "(19, 19)" 341 | ] 342 | }, 343 | "execution_count": 375, 344 | "metadata": {}, 345 | "output_type": "execute_result" 346 | } 347 | ], 348 | "source": [ 349 | "len(out['q_headers']), len(out['questions'])" 350 | ] 351 | }, 352 | { 353 | "cell_type": "code", 354 | "execution_count": null, 355 | "metadata": {}, 356 | "outputs": [], 357 | "source": [ 358 | "out['questions']" 359 | ] 360 | }, 361 | { 362 | "cell_type": "code", 363 | "execution_count": 376, 364 | "metadata": {}, 365 | "outputs": [ 366 | { 367 | "data": { 368 | "text/plain": [ 369 | "['2023-06-21',\n", 370 | " '2023-06-21',\n", 371 | " '2023-06-21',\n", 372 | " '2023-01-18',\n", 373 | " '2023-01-18',\n", 374 | " '2023-01-18',\n", 375 | " '2023-05-09',\n", 376 | " '2023-05-09',\n", 377 | " '2023-09-21',\n", 378 | " '2023-09-21',\n", 379 | " '2023-09-21',\n", 380 | " '2023-09-21',\n", 381 | " '2023-09-21',\n", 382 | " '2023-09-21',\n", 383 | " '2023-09-29',\n", 384 | " '2023-09-29',\n", 385 | " '2023-09-29',\n", 386 | " '2023-09-29',\n", 387 | " '2023-09-29']" 388 | ] 389 | }, 390 | "execution_count": 376, 391 | "metadata": {}, 392 | "output_type": "execute_result" 393 | } 394 | ], 395 | "source": [ 396 | "out['q_dates']" 397 | ] 398 | }, 399 | { 400 | "cell_type": "code", 401 | "execution_count": null, 402 | "metadata": {}, 403 | "outputs": [], 404 | "source": [] 405 | } 406 | ], 407 | "metadata": { 408 | "kernelspec": { 409 | "display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)", 410 | "language": "python", 411 | "name": "python3" 412 | }, 413 | "language_info": { 414 | "codemirror_mode": { 415 | "name": "ipython", 416 | "version": 3 417 | }, 418 | "file_extension": ".py", 419 | "mimetype": "text/x-python", 420 | "name": "python", 421 | "nbconvert_exporter": "python", 422 | "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", 423 | "version": "3.10.11" 424 | } 425 | }, 426 | "nbformat": 4, 427 | "nbformat_minor": 4 428 | } 429 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /survey_results_2015.json: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | {"(001) The recent decline in oil prices will promote higher real GDP in the US over the next couple of years.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_4Otbz0HBxqXSypL","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Did Not Answer","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Uncertain","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Strongly Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Uncertain","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Did Not Answer","Raj Chetty":"Agree","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(002) Question A: Most college professors who assign textbooks would not be able to guess, within 10% of the actual figure, the retail price that their students pay for new copies of those books.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5BVsGBeak5cAaJT","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":"Did Not Answer","Angus Deaton":"Uncertain","Jose Scheinkman":"No Opinion","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"No Opinion","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"No Opinion","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"No Opinion","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"No Opinion","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Strongly Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Strongly Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Did Not Answer","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(003) Question B: Since students can resell college textbooks or rent electronic versions, the net burden on students is substantially lower than retail prices for new textbook purchases would suggest.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5BVsGBeak5cAaJT","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Did Not Answer","Angus Deaton":"No Opinion","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Disagree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Did Not Answer","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Disagree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(004) Question C: Even though the professors who select textbooks are different form the people who pay for them, the price of new edition college textbooks reflect classic forces of supply and demand.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5BVsGBeak5cAaJT","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":"Did Not Answer","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Uncertain","Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"No Opinion","David Autor":"Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Disagree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"No Opinion","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Disagree","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"No Opinion","Bengt Holmstrom":"Disagree","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Did Not Answer","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Disagree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(005) Question A: Changing federal income tax rates, or the income bases to which those rates apply, can affect federal tax revenues partly by altering people's behavior, and thus their actual or reported incomes.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5iEwgeyGXfRP4j3","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Strongly Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Strongly Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Strongly Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Strongly Agree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Did Not Answer","Oliver Hart":"Strongly Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Strongly Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Did Not Answer","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Did Not Answer","Raj Chetty":"Strongly Agree","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(006) Question B: To the extent that a given tax change might affect revenues partly by affecting national-income growth, existing research provides enough guidance to generate informative bounds on the size of any growth-driven revenue effect.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5iEwgeyGXfRP4j3","Daron Acemoglu":"Disagree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Disagree","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Disagree","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","David Autor":"Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Strongly Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"No Opinion","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Did Not Answer","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Did Not Answer","Amy Finkelstein":"Disagree","Richard Schmalensee":"Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Did Not Answer","Raj Chetty":"Agree","David Cutler":"Disagree"},"(007) Question C: For large proposed changes in tax rates or the tax base, official revenue forecasts provided to Congress would probably be more accurate if the CBO and JCT tried to estimate fully how the proposed tax changes would affect growth-driven revenue.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5iEwgeyGXfRP4j3","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Disagree","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Disagree","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","David Autor":"Uncertain","Richard Thaler":"Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Disagree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Did Not Answer","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Did Not Answer","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Did Not Answer","Raj Chetty":"Agree","David Cutler":"Disagree"},"(008) In 10 years, per capita purchasing power in Greece will be higher if -- rather than continuing to service its debts over the next decade and complying with the budget rules currently in place -- it refuses to accept a continuation of its current troika program and explicitly defaults on its debt held by the official sector.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_4Hkng0ow1NAfPeJ","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Uncertain","Jose Scheinkman":"Uncertain","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","David Autor":"No Opinion","Richard Thaler":"No Opinion","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Disagree","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Uncertain","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Uncertain","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"No Opinion","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Uncertain","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"No Opinion","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(009) Question A: Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_aYl11BL8q2uu4RL","Daron Acemoglu":"Strongly Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Strongly Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Strongly Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Strongly Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Strongly Agree","Ray Fair":"Strongly Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Strongly Agree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Strongly Agree","Oliver Hart":"Strongly Agree","Liran Einav":"Strongly Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Strongly Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Strongly Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Strongly Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Strongly Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(010) Question B: Considering the costs of restricting free choice, and the share of people in the US who choose not to vaccinate their children for measles, the social benefit of mandating measles vaccines for all Americans (except those with compelling medical reasons) would exceed the social cost.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_aYl11BL8q2uu4RL","Daron Acemoglu":"Disagree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Strongly Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","David Autor":"Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"No Opinion","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Strongly Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Strongly Agree","Oliver Hart":"Strongly Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Strongly Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(011) Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a city or state typically generates local benefits that outweigh the costs to the city and\/or state providing the incentives.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_9mead4nHknibSxn","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Disagree","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","David Autor":"Uncertain","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Did Not Answer","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Uncertain","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Did Not Answer","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Uncertain","Raj Chetty":"Uncertain","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(012) Question B: The US as a whole benefits when cities or states compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_9mead4nHknibSxn","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Uncertain","Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Disagree","David Autor":"Uncertain","Richard Thaler":"Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Did Not Answer","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Disagree","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Uncertain","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Did Not Answer","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"Disagree","Katherine Baicker":"Disagree","Raj Chetty":"Disagree","David Cutler":"Strongly Disagree"},"(013) The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising -- and not just forecast to rise -- before it begins hiking interest rates.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_4Mgzm4jIDpiQBHT","Daron Acemoglu":"Disagree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"No Opinion","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Disagree","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Disagree","Kenneth Judd":"No Opinion","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Did Not Answer","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"No Opinion","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Disagree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"No Opinion","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Did Not Answer","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(014) Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water -- adjusted for quality, place and time -- even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_d05HKmPOX5l2mDH","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Did Not Answer","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Strongly Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Strongly Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Uncertain","Raj Chetty":"Agree","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(015) The 9% cumulative increase in real US median household income since 1980 substantially understates how much better off people in the median American household are now economically, compared with 35 years ago.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_dbvXvc4ED41vtv7","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Disagree","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Uncertain","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Strongly Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"Disagree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(016) Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_72JJHkpH4FvJb9j","Daron Acemoglu":"Strongly Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Marianne Bertrand":"Strongly Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Strongly Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Strongly Agree","Ray Fair":"Strongly Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Did Not Answer","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Strongly Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Strongly Agree","Oliver Hart":"Strongly Agree","Liran Einav":"Strongly Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Strongly Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Strongly Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Strongly Agree","Raj Chetty":"Strongly Agree","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(017) Question A: Economic analysis can identify whether countries are using their exchange rates to benefit their own people at the expense of their trading partners' welfare.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_bCrHQToXMqPfLzD","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"No Opinion","Jose Scheinkman":"Disagree","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","David Autor":"Uncertain","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Uncertain","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"No Opinion","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"No Opinion","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Uncertain","Hilary Hoynes":"No Opinion","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(018) Question B: Bank of Japan monetary policies that result in a weaker yen make Americans generally worse off.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_bCrHQToXMqPfLzD","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Disagree","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","David Autor":"Uncertain","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Disagree","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"No Opinion","Joseph Altonji":"No Opinion","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"No Opinion","Aaron Edlin":"Uncertain","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"No Opinion","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Disagree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"No Opinion","Hilary Hoynes":"No Opinion","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(019) The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a \"yes\" vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_bg4hVAJ9aPP4YzX","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Uncertain","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Disagree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","David Autor":"No Opinion","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Disagree","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Uncertain","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Agree","Eric Maskin":"Uncertain","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Uncertain","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Disagree","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Did Not Answer","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"No Opinion"},"(020) Question A: If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_e9vyBJWi3mNpwzj","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","David Autor":"Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Did Not Answer","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Uncertain","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Uncertain","Eric Maskin":"Uncertain","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"Disagree","Katherine Baicker":"Uncertain","Raj Chetty":"Disagree","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(021) Question B: Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_e9vyBJWi3mNpwzj","Daron Acemoglu":"Strongly Disagree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Disagree","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","David Autor":"Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Strongly Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Did Not Answer","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Disagree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Disagree","Eric Maskin":"Uncertain","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Disagree","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Disagree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Disagree","Raj Chetty":"Disagree","David Cutler":"Disagree"},"(022) Question A: Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA's public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_7U5X7S5d03bXLjn","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"No Opinion","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","David Autor":"Strongly Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Strongly Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Disagree","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Disagree","Kenneth Judd":"Uncertain","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Did Not Answer","Joseph Altonji":"Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Uncertain","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Uncertain","Eric Maskin":"Disagree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Disagree","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Disagree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Did Not Answer","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Disagree","Richard Schmalensee":"Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Uncertain","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Strongly Disagree","Raj Chetty":"Disagree","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(023) Question B: Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA's public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will generate gains in the health and well-being of the newly insured that exceed the costs.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_7U5X7S5d03bXLjn","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"Did Not Answer","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Uncertain","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Strongly Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Did Not Answer","Abhijit Banerjee":"Strongly Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Uncertain","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Uncertain","Raj Chetty":"Uncertain","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(024) Question A: The association between health and economic growth in poor countries primarily involves faster growth generating better health, rather than the other way around.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_bNHlWJ58R2are9T","Daron Acemoglu":"Strongly Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Strongly Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","David Autor":"Uncertain","Richard Thaler":"No Opinion","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Did Not Answer","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Uncertain","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Strongly Agree","Eric Maskin":"Did Not Answer","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Strongly Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"No Opinion","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Did Not Answer","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(025) Question B: The decline in the fraction of people with incomes under, say, $1 per day is a good measure of whether well-being is improving among low-income populations.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_bNHlWJ58R2are9T","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Marianne Bertrand":"Strongly Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Disagree","Kenneth Judd":"Did Not Answer","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Strongly Agree","Eric Maskin":"Did Not Answer","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"No Opinion","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Did Not Answer","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(026) Comparing their students' average gains on standardized tests over the school year makes it easier to predict which teachers -- all else equal -- are more likely to improve their student's long-term life outcomes.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_bENq1uEXbuqnwep","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"No Opinion","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"No Opinion","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Agree","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"No Opinion","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Strongly Agree","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(027) Question A: Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5bW6yP79t7bxXRr","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"No Opinion","Jose Scheinkman":"Disagree","Marianne Bertrand":"Strongly Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","David Autor":"No Opinion","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Did Not Answer","Darrell Duffie":"Did Not Answer","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Disagree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"No Opinion","Eric Maskin":"Did Not Answer","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Uncertain","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(028) Question B: A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5bW6yP79t7bxXRr","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"No Opinion","Jose Scheinkman":"Disagree","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","David Autor":"No Opinion","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Did Not Answer","Darrell Duffie":"Did Not Answer","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Disagree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"No Opinion","Eric Maskin":"Did Not Answer","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Disagree","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Disagree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Uncertain","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(029) Question A: The Fed should raise its target interest rate when it meets in mid-December.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_0kXNVic9IQwmmjz","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Disagree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","David Autor":"Uncertain","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Uncertain","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"No Opinion","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Disagree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"No Opinion","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Uncertain","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Disagree"},"(030) Question B: The Fed should have raised interest rates sooner, rather than leaving them near zero for this long.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_0kXNVic9IQwmmjz","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":null,"Angus Deaton":"Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Disagree","Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Disagree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","David Autor":"Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Disagree","Robert Hall":"Strongly Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Uncertain","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Disagree","Joseph Altonji":"Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Disagree","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Disagree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Disagree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Disagree","Christopher Udry":"No Opinion","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Disagree","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Strongly Disagree"},"responder_id":{"q_url_suffix":"q","Daron Acemoglu":"1","Janet Currie":"11","Angus Deaton":"12","Jose Scheinkman":"14","Marianne Bertrand":"16","Austan Goolsbee":"17","Anil Kashyap":"18","David Autor":"2","Richard Thaler":"20","Alan Auerbach":"22","Barry Eichengreen":"23","Emmanuel Saez":"25","Darrell Duffie":"26","Robert Hall":"27","Caroline Hoxby":"28","Kenneth Judd":"29","Michael Greenstone":"3","Pete Klenow":"30","Jonathan Levin":"32","Joseph Altonji":"33","Judith Chevalier":"34","Ray Fair":"35","Pinelopi Goldberg":"36","William Nordhaus":"37","Alberto Alesina":"38","Eric Maskin":"39","Bengt Holmstrom":"4","Christopher Udry":"40","Aaron Edlin":"41","Oliver Hart":"42","Liran Einav":"43","Larry Samuelson":"44","Markus Brunnermeier":"45","Steven Kaplan":"46","Robert Shimer":"47","Abhijit Banerjee":"48","Amy Finkelstein":"49","Richard Schmalensee":"5","Carl Shapiro":"50","Hilary Hoynes":"51","Katherine Baicker":"6","Raj Chetty":"7","David Cutler":"8"}} -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /survey_results_2014.json: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | {"(001) Using surge pricing to allocate transportation services -- such as Uber does with its cars -- raises consumer welfare through various potential channels, such as increasing the supply of those services, allocating them to people who desire them the most, and reducing search and queuing costs.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_2bC0xviyL9hsNLL","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Hyun Song Shin":"Did Not Answer","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"No Opinion","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Strongly Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Strongly Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Strongly Disagree","Eric Maskin":"Did Not Answer","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Strongly Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Strongly Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Strongly Agree","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(002) Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke's Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_1GF6NyHSVWhEtN3","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":"Uncertain","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":"Did Not Answer","Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Strongly Agree","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Strongly Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":"Strongly Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Strongly Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Agree","Christopher Udry":"No Opinion","Aaron Edlin":"Strongly Agree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Strongly Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Strongly Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(003) Future innovations worldwide will not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_0NY0fYnZZMpMJUh","Daron Acemoglu":"Disagree","Janet Currie":"Uncertain","Angus Deaton":"Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"No Opinion","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Disagree","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","Nancy Stokey":"Uncertain","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"No Opinion","Alan Auerbach":"No Opinion","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Maurice Obstfeld":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"No Opinion","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Uncertain","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"No Opinion","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Uncertain","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Agree","Eric Maskin":"Uncertain","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Disagree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Disagree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Disagree","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Disagree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Uncertain","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Uncertain","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Uncertain","David Cutler":"Disagree"},"(004) Question A: Advancing automation has not historically reduced employment in the United States.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_eKbRnXZWx3jSRBb","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Strongly Agree","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"No Opinion","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Strongly Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"No Opinion","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"No Opinion","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Did Not Answer","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Disagree","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Strongly Agree","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(005) Question B: Information technology and automation are a central reason why median wages have been stagnant in the US over the past decade, despite rising productivity.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_eKbRnXZWx3jSRBb","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Disagree","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Uncertain","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"No Opinion","Nancy Stokey":"Uncertain","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"No Opinion","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Disagree","Ray Fair":"No Opinion","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"No Opinion","Eric Maskin":"Disagree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Uncertain","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Did Not Answer","Carl Shapiro":"Uncertain","Hilary Hoynes":"Disagree","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Agree","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(006) A market that allows payment for human kidneys should be established on a trial basis to help extend the lives of patients with kidney disease.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_9zykiP3qy64tu2F","Daron Acemoglu":null,"Janet Currie":"Uncertain","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":null,"Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Uncertain","David Autor":"No Opinion","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Did Not Answer","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Did Not Answer","Joseph Altonji":"Did Not Answer","Judith Chevalier":"Strongly Agree","Ray Fair":"Did Not Answer","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Agree","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Disagree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Uncertain","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Strongly Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":null,"Raj Chetty":"Uncertain","David Cutler":"Strongly Disagree"},"(007) Past experience suggests that economic sanctions do little to deter the target countries from their course of action.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_559u7yQFD0uJbhP","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Did Not Answer","Angus Deaton":"Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Disagree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"No Opinion","David Autor":"Disagree","Richard Thaler":"No Opinion","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Disagree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Uncertain","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Uncertain","Eric Maskin":"Uncertain","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Disagree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Uncertain","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"No Opinion","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"No Opinion","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(008) If the NCAA let colleges pay athletes with more than scholarships (which currently may cover tuition, books, room and board), then top colleges in men's basketball and football would pay most athletes substantial sums beyond full scholarships.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_08vCSnOmZM7GYZv","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Did Not Answer","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Agree","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Strongly Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Uncertain","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Strongly Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Strongly Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Strongly Agree","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Strongly Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Strongly Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Strongly Agree","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(009) The recent oversubscribed debt issues of Greece and Portugal suggest that sovereign default by any euro area country is unlikely in the foreseeable future.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_3g8wFdJJA7vvAW1","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Uncertain","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Disagree","Nancy Stokey":"Agree","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Maurice Obstfeld":"Disagree","Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Disagree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Agree","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Agree","Christopher Udry":"No Opinion","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"No Opinion","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Did Not Answer","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"No Opinion","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(010) Considering both distributional effects and changes in efficiency, it is a good idea to let companies that send video or other content to consumers pay more to Internet service providers for the right to send that traffic using faster or higher quality service.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_0MSpqE2oaKL9Z7D","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":"Disagree","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Uncertain","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","Nancy Stokey":"Agree","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":"Uncertain","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Did Not Answer","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Agree","Eric Maskin":"No Opinion","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Disagree","Aaron Edlin":"Uncertain","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Disagree","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"No Opinion","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Did Not Answer","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Agree","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(011) Question A: Employers that discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, if their customers do not care about their mix of employees, compared with firms that do not discriminate.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_ahhcfL33JZHnCqV","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Strongly Agree","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Did Not Answer","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Strongly Agree","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Did Not Answer","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Uncertain","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Strongly Agree","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(012) Question B: Rising market wages are an important reason -- over and above any changes in medical technology, social norms or preferences -- why family sizes have fallen over the past century in rich countries.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_ahhcfL33JZHnCqV","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Strongly Agree","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"No Opinion","Barry Eichengreen":"Strongly Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":"Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"No Opinion","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Did Not Answer","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Uncertain","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Did Not Answer","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Uncertain","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Agree","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(013) There is a social value to having institutions that issue liquid liabilities that are backed by illiquid assets.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_a44oFwRaQpVq9qB","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Uncertain","Angus Deaton":"Uncertain","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Agree","David Autor":"No Opinion","Richard Thaler":"No Opinion","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":"Strongly Agree","Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"Did Not Answer","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Strongly Agree","Ray Fair":"Did Not Answer","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Agree","Christopher Udry":"No Opinion","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Strongly Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Strongly Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Strongly Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"No Opinion","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(014) Question A: All else equal, Patent Assertion Entities -- which specialize in acquiring and asserting patents and are popularly known as \"patent trolls\" -- promote innovation in the U.S.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_2nOHADwYJU1mkhD","Daron Acemoglu":"Disagree","Janet Currie":"Disagree","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Did Not Answer","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","Nancy Stokey":"Uncertain","David Autor":"Strongly Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Uncertain","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Disagree","Joseph Altonji":"Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Did Not Answer","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Disagree","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"No Opinion","Eric Maskin":"Strongly Disagree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"Uncertain","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Disagree","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Strongly Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"No Opinion","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"No Opinion","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"No Opinion","David Cutler":"Disagree"},"(015) Question B: Within the software industry, the US patent system makes consumers better off than they would be in the absence of patents.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_2nOHADwYJU1mkhD","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":"Disagree","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Did Not Answer","Anil Kashyap":"No Opinion","Nancy Stokey":"Agree","David Autor":"Strongly Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Strongly Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Uncertain","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Disagree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Did Not Answer","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Agree","Eric Maskin":"Strongly Disagree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Disagree","Aaron Edlin":"Uncertain","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Disagree","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(016) Legislation introduced in Congress would require the Federal Reserve to \"submit to the appropriate congressional committees\u2026a Directive Policy Rule\", which shall \"describe the strategy or rule of the Federal Open Market Committee for the systematic quantitative adjustment of the Policy Instrument Target to respond to a change in the Intermediate Policy Inputs.\" Should the Fed deviate from the rule, the Fed Chair would have to \"testify before the appropriate congressional committees as to why the [rule]\u2026is not in compliance.\" Enacting this provision would improve monetary policy outcomes in the U.S.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_doNZ9FbNq7tDi97","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":"Disagree","Angus Deaton":"Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Disagree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Disagree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Disagree","Nancy Stokey":"Strongly Disagree","David Autor":"Strongly Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Strongly Disagree","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Disagree","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"Disagree","Joseph Altonji":"Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Strongly Disagree","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Disagree","Eric Maskin":"Disagree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Disagree","Christopher Udry":"Did Not Answer","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"Disagree","Larry Samuelson":"Disagree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(017) Question A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5bfARfqluG9VYrP","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Did Not Answer","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Did Not Answer","Alan Auerbach":"Strongly Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Strongly Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Disagree","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Strongly Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Strongly Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Strongly Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(018) Question B: Taking into account all of the ARRA's economic consequences -- including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects -- the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5bfARfqluG9VYrP","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Uncertain","Nancy Stokey":"Did Not Answer","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Did Not Answer","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Strongly Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Uncertain","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Disagree","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Uncertain","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(019) New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5vcCcMoJ0gFccOV","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Uncertain","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Did Not Answer","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Disagree","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Did Not Answer","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Disagree","Aaron Edlin":"No Opinion","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Disagree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Disagree","Amy Finkelstein":"Uncertain","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Uncertain","Katherine Baicker":"Did Not Answer","Raj Chetty":"Uncertain","David Cutler":"Disagree"},"(020) Question A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_7ajlg33Q5PfJ0Z7","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Did Not Answer","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Strongly Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Strongly Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Did Not Answer","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Strongly Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Strongly Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"No Opinion","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"No Opinion","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Strongly Agree","David Cutler":"Disagree"},"(021) Question B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and\/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and\/or default.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_7ajlg33Q5PfJ0Z7","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Did Not Answer","David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Strongly Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Uncertain","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Did Not Answer","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Did Not Answer","Christopher Udry":"Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"No Opinion","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Agree","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(022) Question A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_9yTmaqlHpp1JzH7","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Did Not Answer","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Strongly Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Strongly Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"No Opinion","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Strongly Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Uncertain","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Agree","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(023) Question B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_9yTmaqlHpp1JzH7","Daron Acemoglu":"Uncertain","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Uncertain","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Did Not Answer","David Autor":"Disagree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Did Not Answer","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Uncertain","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"No Opinion","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Disagree","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Disagree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Disagree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Uncertain","Hilary Hoynes":"Disagree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Uncertain","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(024) Although there are many issues for Scotland's voters to consider, one consequence of separating from the rest of the UK would be greater macroeconomic instability for Scotland for many years.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_bxZQSOkoVPNdke9","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Did Not Answer","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Uncertain","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","Nancy Stokey":"Uncertain","David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Uncertain","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Uncertain","Pinelopi Goldberg":"No Opinion","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Agree","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Uncertain","Aaron Edlin":"No Opinion","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"No Opinion","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"No Opinion","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"No Opinion","David Cutler":"Agree"},"(025) Letting car services such as Uber or Lyft compete with taxi firms on equal footing regarding genuine safety and insurance requirements, but without restrictions on prices or routes, raises consumer welfare.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_eyDrhnya7vAPrX7","Daron Acemoglu":"Strongly Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","Nancy Stokey":null,"David Autor":"Strongly Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Strongly Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Did Not Answer","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Strongly Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Strongly Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Strongly Agree","Liran Einav":"Strongly Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Agree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Strongly Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Strongly Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(026) The most powerful force pushing towards greater wealth inequality in the US since the 1970s is the gap between the after-tax return on capital and the economic growth rate.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_5v7Rxbk8Z3k3F2t","Daron Acemoglu":"Disagree","Janet Currie":"Disagree","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"Did Not Answer","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Disagree","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","Nancy Stokey":null,"David Autor":"Disagree","Richard Thaler":"No Opinion","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Disagree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Strongly Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Disagree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Disagree","Joseph Altonji":"Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Uncertain","Ray Fair":"Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Disagree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Disagree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Did Not Answer","Christopher Udry":"Disagree","Aaron Edlin":"Disagree","Oliver Hart":"Uncertain","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Did Not Answer","Steven Kaplan":"Strongly Disagree","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Disagree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Did Not Answer","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Uncertain","David Cutler":"Strongly Disagree"},"(027) Question A: Amazon has monopsony power in the market for books that is significantly reducing the supply of books.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_86a5upTQvi7uqfX","Daron Acemoglu":"Disagree","Janet Currie":"Uncertain","Angus Deaton":"Strongly Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Disagree","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"Disagree","Nancy Stokey":null,"David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Disagree","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Did Not Answer","Joseph Altonji":"Uncertain","Judith Chevalier":"Disagree","Ray Fair":"Strongly Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Disagree","Aaron Edlin":"Did Not Answer","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"Disagree","Larry Samuelson":"Uncertain","Markus Brunnermeier":"Disagree","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Strongly Disagree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Uncertain","Carl Shapiro":"Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Did Not Answer","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Uncertain","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(028) Question B: Amazon has sufficient monopsony power that regulatory intervention is likely to make consumers of books better off, taking into account implementation costs and the effect of intervention on incentives.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_86a5upTQvi7uqfX","Daron Acemoglu":"Disagree","Janet Currie":"Uncertain","Angus Deaton":"Disagree","Jose Scheinkman":"No Opinion","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Uncertain","Anil Kashyap":"No Opinion","Nancy Stokey":null,"David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Uncertain","Alan Auerbach":"Uncertain","Barry Eichengreen":"Uncertain","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Disagree","Darrell Duffie":"Uncertain","Robert Hall":"Disagree","Caroline Hoxby":"Uncertain","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Disagree","Michael Greenstone":"Disagree","Pete Klenow":"Disagree","Jonathan Levin":"Did Not Answer","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Disagree","Judith Chevalier":"Disagree","Ray Fair":"Strongly Disagree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Did Not Answer","William Nordhaus":"Uncertain","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Uncertain","Bengt Holmstrom":"Uncertain","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Disagree","Aaron Edlin":"Did Not Answer","Oliver Hart":"Disagree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Uncertain","Robert Shimer":"Disagree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Did Not Answer","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Disagree","Carl Shapiro":"Disagree","Hilary Hoynes":"Did Not Answer","Katherine Baicker":"No Opinion","Raj Chetty":"Disagree","David Cutler":"Uncertain"},"(029) Question A: By lowering bargaining costs, fast-track negotiating authority for the president makes it more likely that the U.S. can conclude major trade deals.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_d68906VNWqVmiGN","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Strongly Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Agree","Austan Goolsbee":"Strongly Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","Nancy Stokey":null,"David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Strongly Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Agree","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Uncertain","Caroline Hoxby":"Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Strongly Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"No Opinion","Joseph Altonji":"Strongly Agree","Judith Chevalier":"Agree","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Strongly Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Uncertain","Larry Samuelson":"Strongly Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Agree","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Agree","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Strongly Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Strongly Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Strongly Agree"},"(030) Question B: Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans.":{"q_url_suffix":"SV_d68906VNWqVmiGN","Daron Acemoglu":"Agree","Janet Currie":"Agree","Angus Deaton":"Agree","Jose Scheinkman":"Agree","Hyun Song Shin":null,"Marianne Bertrand":"Uncertain","Austan Goolsbee":"Agree","Anil Kashyap":"Strongly Agree","Nancy Stokey":null,"David Autor":"Agree","Richard Thaler":"Agree","Alan Auerbach":"Agree","Barry Eichengreen":"Agree","Maurice Obstfeld":null,"Emmanuel Saez":"Uncertain","Darrell Duffie":"Agree","Robert Hall":"Agree","Caroline Hoxby":"Strongly Agree","Kenneth Judd":"Strongly Agree","Michael Greenstone":"Agree","Pete Klenow":"Strongly Agree","Jonathan Levin":"Agree","Joseph Altonji":"Agree","Judith Chevalier":"No Opinion","Ray Fair":"Agree","Pinelopi Goldberg":"Agree","William Nordhaus":"Agree","Alberto Alesina":"Did Not Answer","Eric Maskin":"Agree","Bengt Holmstrom":"Agree","Christopher Udry":"Strongly Agree","Aaron Edlin":"Agree","Oliver Hart":"Agree","Liran Einav":"Agree","Larry Samuelson":"Agree","Markus Brunnermeier":"Uncertain","Steven Kaplan":"Agree","Robert Shimer":"Agree","Abhijit Banerjee":"Uncertain","Amy Finkelstein":"Strongly Agree","Richard Schmalensee":"Agree","Carl Shapiro":"Agree","Hilary Hoynes":"Strongly Agree","Katherine Baicker":"Agree","Raj Chetty":"Did Not Answer","David Cutler":"Agree"},"responder_id":{"q_url_suffix":"q","Daron Acemoglu":"1","Janet Currie":"11","Angus Deaton":"12","Jose Scheinkman":"14","Hyun Song Shin":"15","Marianne Bertrand":"16","Austan Goolsbee":"17","Anil Kashyap":"18","Nancy Stokey":"19","David Autor":"2","Richard Thaler":"20","Alan Auerbach":"22","Barry Eichengreen":"23","Maurice Obstfeld":"24","Emmanuel Saez":"25","Darrell Duffie":"26","Robert Hall":"27","Caroline Hoxby":"28","Kenneth Judd":"29","Michael Greenstone":"3","Pete Klenow":"30","Jonathan Levin":"32","Joseph Altonji":"33","Judith Chevalier":"34","Ray Fair":"35","Pinelopi Goldberg":"36","William Nordhaus":"37","Alberto Alesina":"38","Eric Maskin":"39","Bengt Holmstrom":"4","Christopher Udry":"40","Aaron Edlin":"41","Oliver Hart":"42","Liran Einav":"43","Larry Samuelson":"44","Markus Brunnermeier":"45","Steven Kaplan":"46","Robert Shimer":"47","Abhijit Banerjee":"48","Amy Finkelstein":"49","Richard Schmalensee":"5","Carl Shapiro":"50","Hilary Hoynes":"51","Katherine Baicker":"6","Raj Chetty":"7","David Cutler":"8"}} --------------------------------------------------------------------------------