├── .gitignore ├── .here ├── LICENSE ├── Makefile ├── README.md ├── course-description.md ├── course.Rproj ├── data ├── arthropod.csv ├── belgium-aids.csv ├── braya-so.txt ├── chlorophyll.csv ├── darlingtonia.csv ├── galveston.csv ├── gamair-brain.csv ├── heart-attack.csv ├── larks.csv ├── maddy-peat.csv ├── nl_coast.dbf ├── nl_coast.prj ├── nl_coast.shp ├── nl_coast.shx ├── ozone.csv ├── rats.txt ├── ruddy.txt ├── salamanders.csv ├── simulated-gradient.csv ├── south_pole.csv ├── swiss-rainfall.csv ├── trawl_nl.csv └── uefunex.csv ├── day-1 ├── Makefile ├── belgium-solutions.Rmd ├── belgium.Rmd ├── belgium.html ├── global-temperature.R ├── heart-attack-solutions.Rmd ├── heart-attack.Rmd ├── heart-attack.html ├── index.R ├── index.Rmd ├── index.html ├── index_files │ └── figure-html │ │ ├── binomial-pdf-1.svg │ │ ├── hadcrtemp-plot-gam-1.svg │ │ ├── hadcrut-temp-example-1.svg │ │ ├── hadcrut-temp-polynomial-1.svg │ │ ├── logit-transformation-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-darlingtonia-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-maddy-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-maddy-fitted-gamma-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-maddy-fitted-gaussian-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-moth-1-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-moth-glm1-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-moth-root-root-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-moth-sqrt-1.svg │ │ ├── poisson-pdf-1.svg │ │ ├── predict-darlingtonia-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-2-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-3-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-4-1.svg │ │ └── unnamed-chunk-7-1.svg ├── libs │ ├── header-attrs │ │ └── header-attrs.js │ └── remark-css │ │ └── default.css ├── macros.js ├── resources │ ├── fig-gaussian-lm-descriptive-figure-1.png │ ├── fig-other-dist-descr-1.png │ ├── fig-poisson-lm-descriptive-figure-1.png │ ├── rob-potter-398564.jpg │ ├── tradeoff-slider.png │ └── wiggly-things.png ├── slides.css └── wasp.R ├── day-2 ├── Makefile ├── global-temperature.R ├── global-temperature.html ├── global-temperature.qmd ├── index.R ├── index.Rmd ├── index.html ├── index_files │ └── figure-html │ │ ├── basis-functions-1.svg │ │ ├── birds-2-1.svg │ │ ├── co2-example-2-1.svg │ │ ├── co2-example-5-1.svg │ │ ├── co2-example-9-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-crs-basis-facetted-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-four-fun-sim-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-four-fun-sim-plot-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-mcycle-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-mcycle-options-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-mcycle-options-plot-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-tprs-basis-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-tprs-basis-facetted-1.svg │ │ ├── example-data-figure-1.svg │ │ ├── gam-check-aggregated-lark-1.svg │ │ ├── hadcrtemp-plot-gam-1.svg │ │ ├── hadcrut-temp-example-1.svg │ │ ├── hadcrut-temp-penalty-1.svg │ │ ├── hadcrut-temp-polynomial-1.svg │ │ ├── model-check-larks-1-1.svg │ │ ├── model-check-larks-2-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-cc-basis-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-cc-basis-default-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-mcycle-1.svg │ │ ├── tprs-2d-basis-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-10-1.png │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-10-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-11-1.png │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-11-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-12-1.png │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-13-1.png │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-2-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-3-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-4-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-5-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-6-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-7-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-8-1.png │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-8-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-9-1.png │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-9-1.svg │ │ ├── whole-basis-proces-1.svg │ │ ├── whole-basis-proces-2-1.svg │ │ └── whole-basis-proces-2-model-draw-1.svg ├── larks-example.R ├── libs │ ├── header-attrs │ │ └── header-attrs.js │ └── remark-css │ │ └── default.css ├── macros.js ├── milk-yield.html ├── milk-yield.qmd ├── resources │ ├── basis-fun-anim.gif │ ├── gam-crs-animation.gif │ ├── remlgcv.png │ ├── rob-potter-398564.jpg │ ├── spline-anim.gif │ ├── tradeoff-slider.png │ ├── wiggly-things.png │ └── wood-2ed-fig-5-12-2-d-tprs-basis-funs.png ├── slides.css ├── south-pole-co2-example.R └── test.R ├── day-3 ├── Makefile ├── beyond-linearity-example.R ├── brain-example.R ├── galveston-bay-example.R ├── index.R ├── index.Rmd ├── index.html ├── index_files │ └── figure-html │ │ ├── alt-basis-dim-check-3-1.svg │ │ ├── appraise-gam-check-example-1.svg │ │ ├── beyond-linearity-plot-1.svg │ │ ├── change-indicators-1.svg │ │ ├── change-indicators-2-1.svg │ │ ├── change-indicators-3-1.svg │ │ ├── chick-factor-by-1.svg │ │ ├── chick-factor-by-grouped-1.svg │ │ ├── chick-factor-sz-1.svg │ │ ├── chick-ordered-factor-by-1.svg │ │ ├── conditional-values-cw-sz-1.svg │ │ ├── cw-fs-plot-1.svg │ │ ├── dharma-1-1.svg │ │ ├── dharma-2-1.svg │ │ ├── dharma-larks-sim-residuals-1.svg │ │ ├── dharma-plots-1.svg │ │ ├── dharma-plots-negbin-1.svg │ │ ├── dharma-plots-possion-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-derivatives-times-smooth-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-derivatives-times-smooth-2-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-derivatives-times-smooth-2-right-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-mcycle-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-tprs-vs-tensor-product-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-tprs-vs-tensor-product-truth-1.svg │ │ ├── galveston-full-model-draw-1.svg │ │ ├── galveston-full-model-plot-1.svg │ │ ├── galveston-full-predict-plot-1.svg │ │ ├── galveston-trends-by-month-1.svg │ │ ├── gam_check_norm4-1.svg │ │ ├── gam_check_plots1-1.svg │ │ ├── gam_check_plots2-1.svg │ │ ├── gam_check_plots3-1.svg │ │ ├── misspecify-1.svg │ │ ├── pit-gam-check-example-1.svg │ │ ├── pit-gam-check-example-hist-1.svg │ │ ├── pit-gam-check-example-hist-pois-1.svg │ │ ├── pit-gam-check-example-pois-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-predictions-cw-sz-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-tprs-vs-tensor-product-1.svg │ │ ├── quantile-gam-check-example-1.svg │ │ ├── quantile-gam-check-example-hist-1.svg │ │ ├── quantile-gam-check-example-hist-pois-1.svg │ │ ├── quantile-gam-check-example-pois-1.svg │ │ ├── setup-confint-example-1.svg │ │ ├── shrinkage-example-plot-1.svg │ │ ├── shrinkage-example-truth-1.svg │ │ ├── sims_plot-1.svg │ │ ├── tprs-2d-basis-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-10-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-2-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-3-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-4-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-5-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-6-1.svg │ │ ├── unnamed-chunk-7-1.svg │ │ └── unnamed-chunk-8-1.svg ├── libs │ ├── header-attrs │ │ └── header-attrs.js │ └── remark-css │ │ └── default.css ├── macros.js ├── ozone.R ├── resources │ ├── cross-validated.png │ ├── dharma-randomised-residuals.png │ ├── finite_difference_method.svg │ ├── galveston-animation.gif │ ├── miller-bayesian-gam-interpretation-fig.png │ ├── miller-bayesian-gam-interpretation-fig.svg │ ├── wood-2ed-fig-5-12-2-d-tprs-basis-funs.png │ ├── wood-2ed-fig-5-12-2-d-tprs-basis-funs.svg │ ├── wood-gams-2ed-fig-5-17-tensor-product.png │ └── wood-gams-2ed-fig-5-17-tensor-product.svg ├── rootograms.R └── slides.css ├── day-4 ├── Makefile ├── arthropod-example.R ├── index.R ├── index.Rmd ├── index.html ├── index_files │ └── figure-html │ │ ├── biom-space-time-plot-1.png │ │ ├── biom-space-time-plot-1.svg │ │ ├── biomass-fitted-samples-plot-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-coverage-bands-closup-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-coverage-bands-closup-x3-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-richness-gam-1.svg │ │ ├── draw-richness-model-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-conf-band-plus-posterior-smooths-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-posterior-smooths-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-predictions-richness-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-rat-data-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-richness-model-1.svg │ │ ├── plot-ti-marginal-trend-1.svg │ │ ├── posterior-sim-model-hist-1.svg │ │ ├── predict-via-fitted-values-1.svg │ │ ├── re-basis-1.png │ │ ├── re-basis-1.svg │ │ ├── richness-fitted-samples-1.svg │ │ ├── richness-posterior-draws-1.svg │ │ ├── richness-violin-1.svg │ │ ├── setup-confint-example-1.svg │ │ ├── spt-example-plot-1.png │ │ ├── spt-example-plot-1.svg │ │ └── total-biomass-histogram-1.svg ├── libs │ ├── header-attrs │ │ └── header-attrs.js │ ├── remark-css │ │ └── default.css │ └── tile-view │ │ ├── tile-view.css │ │ └── tile-view.js ├── macros.js ├── maximum-abundance-example-solutions.R ├── maximum-abundance-example.R ├── rat-hormone-example.R ├── rat-hormone-hgam-example.R ├── resources │ ├── lawton-et-al-hgam-locust-paper-fig.png │ ├── lawton-et-al-hgam-locust-paper-fig.svg │ ├── miller-bayesian-gam-interpretation-fig.png │ └── miller-bayesian-gam-interpretation-fig.svg ├── shrimp-biomass-example.R └── slides.css └── day-5 ├── Makefile ├── braya-so.R ├── brms-gams.R ├── categorical-response-example.R ├── distributional-gam-example.R ├── index.R ├── index.Rmd ├── index.html ├── index_files └── figure-html │ ├── autocorrel-compare-fits-plots-1.svg │ ├── bam-acf-1.svg │ ├── bam-pacf-1.svg │ ├── biom-space-time-plot-1.png │ ├── biomass-fitted-samples-plot-1.svg │ ├── compare-all-methods-1.svg │ ├── correlated-data-eg-1.svg │ ├── draw-richness-gam-1.svg │ ├── fit-correlated-data-bam-plot-1.svg │ ├── fit-correlated-data-eg-1.svg │ ├── fit-correlated-data-gamm-1.svg │ ├── ga-fail-plot-ga-int-1.svg │ ├── ga-fail-plot-mh-int-1.svg │ ├── ga-fail-setup-1.svg │ ├── gaussian-distributions-plt-1.svg │ ├── ncv-fitted-plot-1.svg │ ├── ncv-vis-nei-1.svg │ ├── pint-example-plot-1.svg │ ├── pint-fitted-model-1.svg │ ├── pint-fitted-model-with-fs-1.svg │ ├── pint-sampling-uncertainty-1.svg │ ├── pint-sim-data-1.svg │ ├── plot-posterior-smooths-1.svg │ ├── plot-predictions-richness-1.svg │ ├── plot-ti-marginal-trend-1.svg │ ├── posterior-sim-model-hist-1.svg │ ├── predict-via-fitted-values-1.svg │ ├── psamples-plot-both-1.svg │ ├── psamples-plot-gau-gam-1.svg │ ├── qgam-example-1.svg │ ├── qgam-example-2.svg │ ├── qgam-example-3.svg │ ├── qgam-example-4.svg │ ├── qgam-example-5.svg │ ├── qgam-example-plt-1.svg │ ├── richness-fitted-samples-1.svg │ ├── richness-posterior-draws-1.svg │ ├── richness-violin-1.svg │ ├── spt-example-plot-1.png │ ├── total-biomass-histogram-1.svg │ ├── unnamed-chunk-10-1.svg │ ├── unnamed-chunk-11-1.svg │ ├── unnamed-chunk-12-1.svg │ ├── unnamed-chunk-3-1.svg │ └── unnamed-chunk-9-1.svg ├── libs ├── header-attrs │ └── header-attrs.js ├── remark-css │ └── default.css └── tile-view │ ├── tile-view.css │ └── tile-view.js ├── macros.js ├── ocean-chlorophyl-example.R ├── point-process-models.R ├── qgam-example.R ├── 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