├── .gitignore ├── 01-monty-hall.Rmd ├── 02-logic.Rmd ├── 03-truth-tables.Rmd ├── 04-gamblers-fallacy.Rmd ├── 05-calculating-probabilities.Rmd ├── 06-conditional-probability.Rmd ├── 07-calculating-probabilities-2.Rmd ├── 08-bayes-theorem.Rmd ├── 09-multiple-conditions.Rmd ├── 10-induction-and-probability.Rmd ├── 11-expected-value.Rmd ├── 12-utility.Rmd ├── 13-challenges-to-eu.Rmd ├── 14-infinity-and-beyond.Rmd ├── 15-two-schools.Rmd ├── 16-beliefs-and-betting-rates.Rmd ├── 17-dutch-books.Rmd ├── 18-priors.Rmd ├── 19-significance-testing.Rmd ├── 20-lindley-paradox.Rmd ├── A-cheat-sheet.Rmd ├── B-axiomatic-probability-theory.Rmd ├── C-grue.Rmd ├── D-problem-of-induction.Rmd ├── E-selected-solutions.Rmd ├── README.md ├── _bookdown.yml ├── _output.yml ├── custom.css ├── header.html ├── img ├── allais.png ├── bertrand.png ├── bertrand_screengrab.png ├── bertrand_screenshot.png ├── daniel_bernoulli.png ├── die │ ├── die1.png │ ├── die2.png │ ├── die3.png │ ├── die4.png │ ├── die5.png │ └── die6.png ├── door_closed.png ├── door_open.png ├── ellsberg.png ├── emoji_hearts.png ├── emoji_hearts_small.png ├── emoji_nerd.png ├── emoji_nerd_small.png ├── emoji_shades.png ├── emoji_shades_small.png ├── euler.png ├── fig.png ├── fisher.png ├── flanders.png ├── goodman.png ├── hume.png ├── jeffreys.png ├── laplace.png ├── lets_make_a_deal.png ├── marg_fig.png ├── marilyn_vos_savant.png ├── moon.gif ├── moon.png ├── neon_bayes.png ├── pascal.png ├── pill_green.png ├── pill_red.png ├── playing_cards.png ├── ramsey.png ├── roulette_wheel.png ├── social_image.png ├── taxi_blue.png ├── taxi_green.png ├── vacuum.gif ├── vacuum.png ├── wiphi_grue.png └── xfiles.png ├── index.Rmd ├── preamble.html ├── preamble.tex └── toc.css /.gitignore: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jweisber/vip-source/HEAD/.gitignore -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /01-monty-hall.Rmd: 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