├── data ├── emptystop.txt ├── wordlist.np.txt ├── wordlist.txt ├── dates.sort.txt └── stoplist_mcdonald_comb.txt ├── images ├── all_doc_cloud.png ├── rates_histo_over_time.png ├── rates_plot_over_time.png ├── first_doc_allwords_cloud.png ├── first_doc_cloud_100words.png └── rates_changeornot_within7.png ├── Fed_Funds_ML Project Report.pdf ├── statements ├── statements.clean │ ├── statement.fomc.20021210.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030129.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020507.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20051213.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020813.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000202.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020130.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000321.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20011002.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000516.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020924.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020626.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20011106.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20001219.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19990518.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19991221.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000822.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040316.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19990824.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20011211.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040504.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000628.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20031209.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040128.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20041110.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030506.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19990630.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010821.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050202.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20041214.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030812.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030916.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19991005.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010627.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20001115.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20031028.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20001003.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040630.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040921.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050630.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19991116.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20021106.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20051101.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040810.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050809.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030318.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030625.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050503.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020319.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050322.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010320.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010131.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010515.txt │ └── statement.fomc.20050920.txt ├── statements.clean.np │ ├── statement.fomc.20030129.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20021210.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20051213.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020813.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020507.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000202.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020130.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000321.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20011002.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000516.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020924.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20011106.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020626.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040316.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19991221.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19990824.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19990518.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040128.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20041110.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20001219.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20031209.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20011211.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050202.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040504.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19990630.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010821.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000628.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000822.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030916.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20031028.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050630.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030812.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010627.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20041214.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030506.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19991005.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040921.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040630.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20021106.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050809.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20001003.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20001115.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19991116.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050503.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030318.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050322.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040810.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030625.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20051101.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020319.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010320.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010131.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010515.txt │ └── statement.fomc.20050920.txt └── statements.raw │ ├── statement.fomc.20020130.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19990518.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19991221.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20001219.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19990630.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20021210.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030129.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000822.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000628.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20011106.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020813.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19991005.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20011002.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020507.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20001115.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20001003.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20011211.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010821.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040316.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020626.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040128.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000516.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000202.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010627.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20000321.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030916.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20031028.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030812.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020924.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20051213.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030506.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19990824.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040504.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20031209.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030318.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.19991116.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010320.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20020319.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20021106.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20041110.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050202.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010515.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050630.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20010131.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050809.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040630.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040921.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050503.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050322.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20030625.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20040810.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20051101.txt │ ├── statement.fomc.20050920.txt │ └── statement.fomc.20041214.txt ├── README.md ├── textmining_withnumbers.py ├── PullStatements.py └── CleanStatements.py /data/emptystop.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /data/wordlist.np.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | a 2 | a -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /images/all_doc_cloud.png: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/michellebonat/Fed_Funds_ML/HEAD/images/all_doc_cloud.png -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /Fed_Funds_ML Project Report.pdf: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/michellebonat/Fed_Funds_ML/HEAD/Fed_Funds_ML Project Report.pdf -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /images/rates_histo_over_time.png: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/michellebonat/Fed_Funds_ML/HEAD/images/rates_histo_over_time.png -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /images/rates_plot_over_time.png: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/michellebonat/Fed_Funds_ML/HEAD/images/rates_plot_over_time.png -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /images/first_doc_allwords_cloud.png: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/michellebonat/Fed_Funds_ML/HEAD/images/first_doc_allwords_cloud.png -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /images/first_doc_cloud_100words.png: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/michellebonat/Fed_Funds_ML/HEAD/images/first_doc_cloud_100words.png -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /images/rates_changeornot_within7.png: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/michellebonat/Fed_Funds_ML/HEAD/images/rates_changeornot_within7.png -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20021210.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr unchang perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act limit numb incom econom ind meet tak inconsist econom work way cur soft spot circumst commit believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk bal respect prospect goal fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20030129.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr unchang perc oil pric prem aspect geopolit risk report fost continu restraint on spend hir busy commit believ risk lift analyst expect accommod stant monet policy coupl ongo grow produc provid support improv econom clim tim circumst commit believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk bal respect prospect goal fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20020507.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr unchang perc inform avail meet commit confirm econom act receiv consid upward impet mark swing inv invest nonetheless degr strengthening fin demand com quart ess el sustain econom expand uncertain circumst stant monet policy cur accommod commit believ fores fut background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk bal respect prospect goal -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20051213.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc despit elev energy pric hur rel disrupt expand econom act appear solid coreinfl stay rel low rec month long term infl expect remain contain poss increas resourc util elev energy pric pot ad infl press commit judg meas policy firm lik nee keep risk attain sustecongrow pricest rough bal ev commit respond chang econom prospect nee fost object -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20020813.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr unchang perc soft grow aggreg demand emerg spring prolong larg meas weak fin market height uncertainty rel problem corp report govern cur accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc sufficy fost improv busy clim tim nonetheless commit recogn fores fut background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20000202.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc vot today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point increas discount perc commit remain concern tim increas demand continu excess grow pot supply tak account pronount ris produc grow trend fost infl imb undermin econom record econom expand background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail commit believ risk weight main condit gen height infl press fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20020130.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr unchang perc sign weak demand ab econom act begin firm prev forc restrain econom start dimin long term prospect produc grow remain fav monet policy accommod outlook econom recovery prom degr strength busy capit household spend uncertain commit continu believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20000321.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc vot today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point increas discount perc econom condit consid address commit ess commit met commit remain concern increas demand continu excess grow pot supply fost infl imb undermin econom record econom expand background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail commit believ risk weight main condit gen height infl press fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20011002.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc ter attack sign height uncertainty econom weak busy household spend consequ damp nonetheless long term prospect produc grow econom remain fav evid ont unus forc restrain demand ab commit continu believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20000516.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc vot today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point increas discount perc increas demand remain excess rapid pac produc driv gain pot supply exert continu press on resourc commit concern disp grow demand pot supply continu fost infl imb undermin econom outstand perform background long term goal pricest sustecongrow inform avail commit believ risk weight main condit gen height infl press fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20020924.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr unchang perc inform avail meet commit suggest aggreg demand grow mod pac tim cur accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc sufficy fost improv busy clim consid uncertainty persist ext tim expect pickup produc employ ow part emerg height geopolit risk consequ commit believ fores fut background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20020626.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr unchang perc inform avail meet commit confirm econom act continu increas upward impet swing inv invest grow fin demand appear mod commit expect rat increas fin demand pick com quart support part robust und grow produc degr strengthening remain uncertain circumst stant monet policy cur accommod commit believ fores fut background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk bal respect prospect goal -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20011106.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc height uncertainty concern detery busy condit abroad damp econom act fores fut commit continu believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak necess realloc resourc enh sec restrain adv produc tim long term prospect produc grow econom remain fav evid ont unus forc restrain demand ab -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20001219.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid maintain ex stant monet policy keep target fedfundsr perc drag on demand profit ris energy cost erod consum confid report subst shortfal sal earn stress seg fin market suggest econom grow slow infl risk persist dimin mod pac econom act abs ind long term infl expect increas commit continu monit clos evolv econom situ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail commit consequ believ risk weight main condit gen econom weak fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /data/wordlist.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | maximum employment 2 | maximumemployment 3 | price stability 4 | pricestability 5 | federal open market committee 6 | fomc 7 | board of governors 8 | boardofgovernors 9 | considerable period 10 | considerableperiod 11 | considerable time 12 | considerabletime 13 | federal funds rate 14 | fedfundsrate 15 | discount rate 16 | discountrate 17 | core inflation 18 | coreinflation 19 | forward guidance 20 | forwardguidance 21 | federal reserve 22 | federalreserve 23 | sustainable economic growth 24 | sustecongrowth -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.19990518.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | federalreserv releas follow stat today fomc meet fomc tak act today alt stant monet policy commit concern pot buildup infl imb undermin fav perform econom adopt direct tilt poss firm stant monet policy trend increas cost cor pric gen remain quit subdu domest fin market recov foreign econom prospect improv eas monet policy fal background tight domest lab market ongo strength demand excess produc gain commit recogn nee alert develop com month ind fin condit long consist contain infl -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.19991221.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc mad chang today target fedfundsr bas on avail evid commit remain concern poss tim increas demand continu excess grow pot supply tak account remark ris produc grow trend fost infl imb undermin econom exempl perform nonetheless light market uncertainty assocy century chang commit decid adopt symmet direct ord ind foc policy intermeet period ens smoo transit meet commit assess avail inform on lik bal supply demand condit fin market poss nee adjust stant policy contain infl press -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20000822.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid maintain ex stant monet policy keep target fedfundsr perc rec dat ind expand aggreg demand mod pac clos rat grow econom pot produc dat ind rapid adv produc rais pot grow rat contain cost hold und pric press nonetheless commit remain concern risk continu gap grow demand pot supply tim util pool avail work remain unus high level background long term goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail commit believ risk continu weight main condit gen height infl press fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20040316.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act evid accum intermeet period ind output continu expand solid pac job loss slow hir lag increas cor consum pric mut expect remain low commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow quart rough eq prob unwelcom fal infl dimin rec month appear eq ris infl infl quit low resourc us slack commit believ paty remov policy accommod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.19990824.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc today vot rais target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point increas discount perc fin market funct norm persist strength domest demand foreign econom firm lab market remain tight degr monet eas requir address glob fin market turmoil fal long consist sustain noninfl econom expand today increas fedfundsr policy act firm condit gen unitedst fin market rec month mark dimin risk ris infl going forward consequ direct fomc adopt symmet regard outlook policy near term -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20011211.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc econom act remain soft und infl lik edg low rel modest level sur weak demand show sign ab sign prelimin tent commit continu believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak fores fut necess realloc resourc enh sec restrain adv produc tim long term prospect produc grow econom remain fav evid ont unus forc restrain demand ab -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20040504.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act evid accum intermeet period ind output continu expand solid rat hir appear pick incom infl dat mov somewh high long term infl expect appear remain contain commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow quart rough eq simil risk goal pricest mov bal junct infl low resourc us slack commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20000628.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid maintain ex stant monet policy keep target fedfundsr perc rec dat suggest expand aggreg demand mod pac clos rat grow econom pot produc cor meas pric ris slight fast ago continu rapid adv produc contain cost hold und pric press nonetheless sign grow demand mov sustain pac tent prelimin util pool avail work remain unus high level circumst background long term goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail commit believ risk continu weight main condit gen height infl press fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20031209.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act evid accum intermeet period confirm output expand brisk lab market appear improv modest increas cor consum pric mut expect remain low commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow quart rough eq prob unwelcom fal infl dimin rec month appear eq ris infl infl quit low resourc us slack commit believ policy accommod maintain considerableperiod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20040128.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act evid accum intermeet period confirm output expand brisk hir remain subdu ind suggest improv lab market increas cor consum pric mut expect remain low commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow quart rough eq prob unwelcom fal infl dimin rec month appear eq ris infl infl quit low resourc us slack commit believ paty remov policy accommod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20041110.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act output appear grow mod pac despit ris energy pric lab market condit improv infl long term infl expect remain contain commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest quart rough eq und infl expect rel low commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20030506.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid keep target fedfundsr unchang perc rec read on produc employ reflect decid mad conclud hostil prov disappoint eb geopolit tend rol back oil pric bolst consum confid strengthened debt equ market develop accommod stant monet policy ongo grow produc fost improv econom clim tim tim ext improv remain uncertain commit perceiv quart upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow rough eq contrast period prob unwelcom subst fal infl min excess pickup infl low level commit believ tak bal risk achiev goal weight weak fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.19990630.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc today vot rais target fedfundsr bas point perc fal commit reduc interest rat count sign seiz fin market stat fin strain eas foreign econom firm econom act stat mov forward brisk pac accord ful degr adjust judg long necess lab market continu tight rec quart strengthening produc grow contain infl press ow uncertain resolv bal conflict forc econom going forward fomc chos adopt direct includ predilect near term policy act commit nonetheless recogn cur dynam environ espec alert emerg pot emerg infl forc undermin econom grow -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20010821.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc today act fomc bring declin target fedfundsr begin bas point household demand sustain busy profit capit spend continu weak grow abroad slow weigh on unitedst econom assocy eas press on lab produc market expect keep infl contain long term prospect produc grow econom remain fav commit continu believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20050202.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act output appear grow mod pac despit ris energy pric lab market condit continu improv grad infl long term infl expect remain contain commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest quart rough eq und infl expect rel low commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20041214.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act output appear grow mod pac despit ear ris energy pric lab market condit continu improv grad infl long term infl expect remain contain commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest quart rough eq und infl expect rel low commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20030812.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act evid accum intermeet period show spend firm lab market ind mix busy pric pow increas cor consum pric remain mut commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow quart rough eq contrast prob min unwelcom fal infl excess ris infl low level commit judg on bal risk infl undesir low lik predomin concern fores fut circumst commit believ policy accommod maintain considerableperiod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20030916.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act evid accum intermeet period confirm spend firm lab market weak busy pric pow increas cor consum pric remain mut commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow quart rough eq contrast prob min unwelcom fal infl excess ris infl low level commit judg on bal risk infl undesir low remain predomin concern fores fut circumst commit believ policy accommod maintain considerableperiod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.19991005.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today leav target fedfundsr unchang strengthening produc grow fost fav trend unit cost pric rec inform suggest trend sustain nonetheless grow demand continu outpac supply evid decreas pool avail work wil tak job circumst fomc nee espec alert month ahead pot cost increas sign excess produc man contribut infl press undermin impress perform econom background commit adopt direct bias poss firm policy going forward commit memb emphas direct sign commit near term act commit nee evalu addit inform on bal aggreg supply demand condit fin market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20010627.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc today act fomc bring declin target fedfundsr begin bas point pattern evid rec month declin profit busy capit spend weak expand consum slow grow abroad continu weigh on econom assocy eas press on lab produc market expect keep infl contain continu fav trend bolst long term prospect produc grow econom commit continu believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20001115.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid maintain ex stant monet policy keep target fedfundsr perc util pool avail work remain unus high level increas energy pric limit effect on cor meas pric harb poss rais infl expect commit accord continu see risk height infl press soft busy household demand tight condit fin market rec month suggest econom expand tim pac produc enh rat grow pot produc nonetheless eas demand press sufficy war chang commit judg background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk continu weight main condit gen height infl press fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20031028.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act evid accum intermeet period confirm spend firm lab market appear stabl busy pric pow increas cor consum pric remain mut commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow quart rough eq contrast prob min unwelcom fal infl excess ris infl low level commit judg on bal risk infl undesir low remain predomin concern fores fut circumst commit believ policy accommod maintain considerableperiod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20001003.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid maintain ex stant monet policy keep target fedfundsr perc rec dat ind expand aggreg demand mod pac clos enh rat grow econom pot produc rapid adv produc continu help contain cost hold und pric press util pool avail work remain unus high level increas energy pric limit effect on cor meas pric pos risk rais infl expect subdu behavy expect far contribut import maintain environ conduc maxim sustain grow background long term goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail commit believ risk continu weight main condit gen height infl press fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20040630.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act evid accum intermeet period ind output continu expand solid pac lab market condit improv incom infl dat somewh elev port increas rec month appear due transit fact commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest quart rough eq und infl expect rel low commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20040921.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act mod ear part respons subst ris energy pric output grow appear regain tract lab market condit improv modest despit ris energy pric infl infl expect eas rec month commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest quart rough eq und infl expect rel low commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20050630.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act energy pric ris expand remain firm lab market condit continu improv grad press on infl stay elev long term infl expect remain contain commit perceiv appropry monet policy act upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest kept rough eq und infl expect contain commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.19991116.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc today vot rais target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point increas discount perc cost press appear gen contain risk sustain grow persist despit tent evid slow certain interest sensit sect econom accel produc expand act continu excess econom grow pot consequ pool avail work wil tak job drawn rec month trend ev contain infl imb remain check econom expand continu today increas fedfundsr policy act firm condit gen unitedst fin market cours mark dimin risk infl going forward consequ direct fomc adopt symmet regard outlook policy near term -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20021106.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act incom econom dat tend confirm gre uncertainty part attribut height geopolit risk cur inhibit spend produc employ infl infl expect remain contain circumst commit believ today addit monet eas prov help econom work way cur soft spot act commit believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk bal respect prospect goal fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20051101.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc elev energy pric hur rel disrupt econom act temp depress output employ monet policy accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act lik aug plan rebuild hur affect area cum ris energy cost pot ad infl press coreinfl rel low rec month long term infl expect remain contain commit perceiv appropry monet policy act upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest kept rough eq und infl expect contain commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20040810.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act rec month output grow mod pac improv lab market condit slow soft lik ow import subst ris energy pric econom appear pois resum stronger pac expand going forward infl somewh elev port ris pric reflect transit fact commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest quart rough eq und infl expect rel low commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20050809.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act aggreg spend despit high energy pric appear strengthened lat wint lab market condit continu improv grad coreinfl rel low rec month long term infl expect remain contain press on infl stay elev commit perceiv appropry monet policy act upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest kept rough eq und infl expect contain commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20030318.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr unchang perc incom econom dat meet mix rec lab market ind prov disappoint hesit econom expand appear ow import oil pric prem aspect geopolit uncertainty commit believ uncertainty lift analyst expect accommod stant monet policy coupl ongo grow produc provid support econom act sufficy engend improv econom clim tim light unus larg uncertainty cloud geopolit situ short run app effect on econom decisionmak commit believ us charact cur bal risk respect prospect long run goal pricest sustecongrow commit decid refrain mak determin uncertainty ab cur circumst height surveil particul inform -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20030625.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc commit continu believ accommod stant monet policy coupl robust und grow produc provid import ongo support econom act rec sign point firm spend mark improv fin condit lab produc market stabl econom nonetheless exhibit sustain grow infl expect subdu commit judg slight expand monet policy ad support econom expect improv tim commit perceiv upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow quart rough eq contrast prob min unwelcom subst fal infl excess pickup infl low level on bal commit believ concern lik predomin fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20050503.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act rec dat suggest solid pac spend grow slow somewh part respons ear increas energy pric lab market condit app continu improv grad press on infl pick rec month pric pow evid long term infl expect remain contain commit perceiv appropry monet policy act upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest kept rough eq und infl expect contain commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20020319.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today keep target fedfundsr unchang perc inform avail meet commit ind econom bolst mark swing inv invest expand sign pac nonetheless degr strengthening fin demand com quart ess el sustain econom expand uncertain circumst stant monet policy cur accommod commit believ fores fut background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk bal respect prospect goal commit decid includ annount follow meet rol cal vot on fedfundsr target includ prefer policy cho diss act accel releas inform cur avail minut lag conform pract boardofgovern decid report writ annount rol cal vot on discount includ prefer policy cho diss -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20050322.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc commit believ act stant monet policy remain accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act output evid continu grow solid pac despit ris energy pric lab market condit continu improv grad long term infl expect remain contain press on infl pick rec month pric pow evid ris energy pric not fed cor consum pric commit perceiv appropry monet policy act upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest kept rough eq und infl expect contain commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20010320.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc persist press on profit margin restrain invest spend declin equ weal consum assocy backup inv induc rapid respons manufact output spend firm bit inv adjust appear underway cur develop appear mat dimin prospect long term grow produc excess produc capac emerg rec poss excess continu tim pot weak glob econom condit suggest subst risk demand produc remain soft circumst econom situ evolv rapid federalreserv nee monit develop clos commit continu believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20010131.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc consum busy confid erod exacerb ris energy cost continu drain consum purchas pow press on busy profit margin part consequ retail sal busy spend on capit equip weak apprecy respons manufact produc cut back sharply technolog appear accel respons produc demand pot excess stock inv capit equip tak infl contain circumst cal rapid forc respons monet policy long term adv technolog accompany gain produc exhibit sign ab gain low interest rat support grow econom tim nonetheless commit continu believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20010515.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc meet today decid low target fedfundsr bas point perc rel act boardofgovern approv bas point reduc discount perc sign reduc excess inv adv consum hous expendit held reason act area flat rec invest capit equip continu declin erod cur prospect profit combin consid uncertainty busy outlook lik hold capit spend going forward pot restraint poss effect ear reduc equ weal on consum risk slow grow abroad continu weigh on econom press on lab produc market eas infl expect remain contain meas produc grow stal impress und rat increas develop rec year appear larg intact support long term prospect commit continu believ background long run goal pricest sustecongrow inform cur avail risk weight main condit gen econom weak fores fut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20030129.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 14 percent oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical risks have reportedly fostered continued restraint on spending and hiring by businesses however the committee believes that as those risks lift as most analysts expect the accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with ongoing growth in productivity will provide support to an improving economic climate over time in these circumstances the committee believes that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals for the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20021210.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 14 percent the committee continues to believe that this accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity the limited number of incoming economic indicators since the november meeting taken together are not inconsistent with the economy working its way through its current soft spot in these circumstances the committee believes that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals for the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20051213.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4 14 percent despite elevated energy prices and hurricane related disruptions the expansion in economic activity appears solid core inflation has stayed relatively low in recent months and longer term inflation expectations remain contained nevertheless possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflation pressures the committee judges that some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance in any event the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20020813.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 34 percent the softening in the growth of aggregate demand that emerged this spring has been prolonged in large measure by weakness in financial markets and heightened uncertainty related to problems in corporate reporting and governance the current accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity should be sufficient to foster an improving business climate over time nonetheless the committee recognizes that for the foreseeable future against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean/statement.fomc.20050920.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | fomc decid today rais target fedfundsr bas point perc output appear pois continu grow good pac trag tol hur katrin widespread devast reg assocy disloc econom act boost energy pric imply spend produc employ set back near term addit elev prem energy produc disrupt produc refin infrastruct ad energy pric volatil unfortun develop increas uncertainty near term econom perform commit view pos persist threat monet policy accommod coupl robust und grow produc provid ongo support econom act high energy cost pot ad infl press coreinfl rel low rec month long term infl expect remain contain commit perceiv appropry monet policy act upsid downsid risk attain sustain grow pricest kept rough eq und infl expect contain commit believ policy accommod remov pac lik meas nonetheless commit respond chang econom prospect nee fulfil oblig maintain pricest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20020507.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 34 percent the information that has become available since the last meeting of the committee confirms that economic activity has been receiving considerable upward impetus from a marked swing in inventory investment nonetheless the degree of the strengthening in final demand over coming quarters an essential element in sustained economic expansion is still uncertain in these circumstances although the stance of monetary policy is currently accommodative the committee believes that for the foreseeable future against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20000202.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee voted today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5 34 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 5 14 percent the committee remains concerned that over time increases in demand will continue to exceed the growth in potential supply even after taking account of the pronounced rise in productivity growth such trends could foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economys record economic expansion against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the committee believes the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20020130.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 34 percent signs that weakness in demand is abating and economic activity is beginning to firm have become more prevalent with the forces restraining the economy starting to diminish and with the long term prospects for productivity growth remaining favorable and monetary policy accommodative the outlook for economic recovery has become more promising the degree of any strength in business capital and household spending however is still uncertain hence the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20000321.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee voted today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 5 12 percent economic conditions and considerations addressed by the committee are essentially the same as when the committee met in february the committee remains concerned that increases in demand will continue to exceed the growth in potential supply which could foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economys record economic expansion against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the committee believes the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20011002.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 2 12 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 2 percent the terrorist attacks have significantly heightened uncertainty in an economy that was already weak business and household spending as a consequence are being further damped nonetheless the long term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20000516.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee voted today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 6 12 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 50 basis point increase in the discount rate to 6 percent increases in demand have remained in excess of even the rapid pace of productivity driven gains in potential supply exerting continued pressure on resources the committee is concerned that this disparity in the growth of demand and potential supply will continue which could foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economys outstanding performance against the background of its long term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information already available the committee believes the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20020924.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 34 percent the information that has become available since the last meeting of the committee suggests that aggregate demand is growing at a moderate pace over time the current accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity should be sufficient to foster an improving business climate however considerable uncertainty persists about the extent and timing of the expected pickup in production and employment owing in part to the emergence of heightened geopolitical risks consequently the committee believes that for the foreseeable future against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20011106.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 2 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 1 12 percent heightened uncertainty and concerns about a deterioration in business conditions both here and abroad are damping economic activity for the foreseeable future then the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness although the necessary reallocation of resources to enhance security may restrain advances in productivity for a time the long term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20020626.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 34 percent the information that has become available since the last meeting of the committee confirms that economic activity is continuing to increase however both the upward impetus from the swing in inventory investment and the growth in final demand appear to have moderated the committee expects the rate of increase of final demand to pick up over coming quarters supported in part by robust underlying growth in productivity but the degree of the strengthening remains uncertain in these circumstances although the stance of monetary policy is currently accommodative the committee believes that for the foreseeable future against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20040316.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity the evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid pace although job losses have slowed new hiring has lagged increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low the committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal the probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation with inflation quite low and resource use slack the committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20020130.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-3/4 percent. 8 | 9 | Signs that weakness in demand is abating and economic activity is beginning to firm have become more prevalent. With the forces restraining the economy starting to diminish, and with the long-term prospects for productivity growth remaining favorable and monetary policy accommodative, the outlook for economic recovery has become more promising. 10 | 11 | The degree of any strength in business capital and household spending, however, is still uncertain. Hence, the Committee continues to believe that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.19991221.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee made no change today in its target for the federal funds rate based on the available evidence however the committee remains concerned with the possibility that over time increases in demand will continue to exceed the growth in potential supply even after taking account of the remarkable rise in productivity growth such trends could foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economys exemplary performance nonetheless in light of market uncertainties associated with the century date change the committee decided to adopt a symmetric directive in order to indicate that the focus of policy in the intermeeting period must be ensuring a smooth transition into the year 2000 at its next meeting the committee will assess available information on the likely balance of supply and demand conditions in financial markets and the possible need for adjustment in the stance of policy to contain inflationary pressures -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.19990824.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee today voted to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5 14 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 4 34 percent with financial markets functioning more normally and with persistent strength in domestic demand foreign economies firming and labor markets remaining very tight the degree of monetary ease required to address the global financial market turmoil of last fall is no longer consistent with sustained noninflationary economic expansion todays increase in the federal funds rate together with the policy action in june and the firming of conditions more generally in unitedstates financial markets over recent months should markedly diminish the risk of rising inflation going forward as a consequence the directive the federal open market committee adopted is symmetrical with regard to the outlook for policy over the near term -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.19990518.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal reserve released the following statement after todays federal open market committee meeting while the fomc did not take action today to alter the stance of monetary policy the committee was concerned about the potential for a buildup of inflationary imbalances that could undermine the favorable performance of the economy and therefore adopted a directive that is tilted toward the possibility of a firming in the stance of monetary policy trend increases in costs and core prices have generally remained quite subdued but domestic financial markets have recovered and foreign economic prospects have improved since the easing of monetary policy last fall against the background of already tight domestic labor markets and ongoing strength in demand in excess of productivity gains the committee recognizes the need to be alert to developments over coming months that might indicate that financial conditions may no longer be consistent with containing inflation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20040128.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity the evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly although new hiring remains subdued other indicators suggest an improvement in the labor market increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low the committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal the probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation with inflation quite low and resource use slack the committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20041110.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices and labor market conditions have improved inflation and longer term inflation expectations remain well contained the committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be relatively low the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20001219.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6 12 percent the drag on demand and profits from rising energy costs as well as eroding consumer confidence reports of substantial shortfalls in sales and earnings and stress in some segments of the financial markets suggest that economic growth may be slowing further while some inflation risks persist they are diminished by the more moderate pace of economic activity and by the absence of any indication that longer term inflation expectations have increased the committee will continue to monitor closely the evolving economic situation against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the committee consequently believes that the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20031209.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity the evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly and the labor market appears to be improving modestly increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low the committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal the probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation however with inflation quite low and resource use slack the committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20011211.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 34 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 1 14 percent economic activity remains soft with underlying inflation likely to edge lower from relatively modest levels to be sure weakness in demand shows signs of abating but those signs are preliminary and tentative the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future although the necessary reallocation of resources to enhance security may restrain advances in productivity for a time the long term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20050202.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 12 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually inflation and longer term inflation expectations remain well contained the committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be relatively low the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20040504.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity the evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid rate and hiring appears to have picked up although incoming inflation data have moved somewhat higher long term inflation expectations appear to have remained well contained the committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal similarly the risks to the goal of price stability have moved into balance at this juncture with inflation low and resource use slack the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.19990630.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee today voted to raise its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 5 percent last fall the committee reduced interest rates to counter a significant seizing up of financial markets in the united states since then much of the financial strain has eased foreign economies have firmed and economic activity in the united states has moved forward at a brisk pace accordingly the full degree of adjustment is judged no longer necessary labor markets have continued to tighten over recent quarters but strengthening productivity growth has contained inflationary pressures owing to the uncertain resolution of the balance of conflicting forces in the economy going forward the fomc has chosen to adopt a directive that includes no predilection about near term policy action the committee nonetheless recognizes that in the current dynamic environment it must be especially alert to the emergence or potential emergence of inflationary forces that could undermine economic growth -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20010821.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3 12 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3 percent todays action by the fomc brings the decline in the target federal funds rate since the beginning of the year to 300 basis points household demand has been sustained but business profits and capital spending continue to weaken and growth abroad is slowing weighing on the unitedstates economy the associated easing of pressures on labor and product markets is expected to keep inflation contained although long term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20000628.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6 12 percent recent data suggest that the expansion of aggregate demand may be moderating toward a pace closer to the rate of growth of the economys potential to produce although core measures of prices are rising slightly faster than a year ago continuing rapid advances in productivity have been containing costs and holding down underlying price pressures nonetheless signs that growth in demand is moving to a sustainable pace are still tentative and preliminary and the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level in these circumstances and against the background of its long term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20000822.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6 12 percent recent data have indicated that the expansion of aggregate demand is moderating toward a pace closer to the rate of growth of the economys potential to produce the data also have indicated that more rapid advances in productivity have been raising that potential growth rate as well as containing costs and holding down underlying price pressures nonetheless the committee remains concerned about the risk of a continuing gap between the growth of demand and potential supply at a time when the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level against the background of its long term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20030916.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity the evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that spending is firming although the labor market has been weakening business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted the committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal in contrast the probability though minor of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level the committee judges that on balance the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future in these circumstances the committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20031028.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity the evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that spending is firming and the labor market appears to be stabilizing business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted the committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal in contrast the probability though minor of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level the committee judges that on balance the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future in these circumstances the committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20050630.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3 14 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity although energy prices have risen further the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually pressures on inflation have stayed elevated but longer term inflation expectations remain well contained the committee perceives that with appropriate monetary policy action the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be contained the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20030812.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity the evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period shows that spending is firming although labor market indicators are mixed business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted the committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal in contrast the probability though minor of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level the committee judges that on balance the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low is likely to be the predominant concern for the foreseeable future in these circumstances the committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20010627.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3 34 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3 14 percent todays action by the fomc brings the decline in the target federal funds rate since the beginning of the year to 275 basis points the patterns evident in recent months declining profitability and business capital spending weak expansion of consumption and slowing growth abroad continue to weigh on the economy the associated easing of pressures on labor and product markets is expected to keep inflation contained although continuing favorable trends bolster long term prospects for productivity growth and the economy the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20041214.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 14 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the earlier rise in energy prices and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually inflation and longer term inflation expectations remain well contained the committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be relatively low the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20030506.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 14 percent recent readings on production and employment though mostly reflecting decisions made before the conclusion of hostilities have proven disappointing however the ebbing of geopolitical tensions has rolled back oil prices bolstered consumer confidence and strengthened debt and equity markets these developments along with the accommodative stance of monetary policy and ongoing growth in productivity should foster an improving economic climate over time although the timing and extent of that improvement remain uncertain the committee perceives that over the next few quarters the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth are roughly equal in contrast over the same period the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation though minor exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level the committee believes that taken together the balance of risks to achieving its goals is weighted toward weakness over the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.19991005.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to leave its target for the federal funds rate unchanged strengthening productivity growth has been fostering favorable trends in unit costs and prices and much recent information suggests that these trends have been sustained nonetheless the growth of demand has continued to outpace that of supply as evidenced by a decreasing pool of available workers willing to take jobs in these circumstances the federal open market committee will need to be especially alert in the months ahead to the potential for costs to increase significantly in excess of productivity in a manner that could contribute to inflation pressures and undermine the impressive performance of the economy against this background the committee adopted a directive that was biased toward a possible firming of policy going forward committee members emphasized that such a directive did not signify a commitment to near term action the committee will need to evaluate additional information on the balance of aggregate supply and demand and conditions in financial markets -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20040921.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 34 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity after moderating earlier this year partly in response to the substantial rise in energy prices output growth appears to have regained some traction and labor market conditions have improved modestly despite the rise in energy prices inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months the committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be relatively low the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20040630.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 14 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity the evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid pace and labor market conditions have improved although incoming inflation data are somewhat elevated a portion of the increase in recent months appears to have been due to transitory factors the committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal with underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.19990518.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | The Federal Reserve released the following statement after today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting: 9 | 10 | 11 | While the FOMC did not take action today to alter the stance of monetary policy, the Committee was concerned about the potential for a buildup of inflationary imbalances that could undermine the favorable performance of the economy and therefore adopted a directive that is tilted toward the possibility of a firming in the stance of monetary policy. Trend increases in costs and core prices have generally remained quite subdued. But domestic financial markets have recovered and foreign economic prospects have improved since the easing of monetary policy last fall. Against the background of already-tight domestic labor markets and ongoing strength in demand in excess of productivity gains, the Committee recognizes the need to be alert to developments over coming months that might indicate that financial conditions may no longer be consistent with containing inflation. 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.19991221.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee made no change today in its target for the federal funds rate. 10 | 11 | Based on the available evidence, however, the Committee remains concerned with the possibility that over time increases in demand will continue to exceed the growth in potential supply, even after taking account of the remarkable rise in productivity growth. Such trends could foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economy's exemplary performance. 12 | 13 | Nonetheless, in light of market uncertainties associated with the century date change, the Committee decided to adopt a symmetric directive in order to indicate that the focus of policy in the intermeeting period must be ensuring a smooth transition into the Year 2000. At its next meeting the Committee will assess available information on the likely balance of supply and demand, conditions in financial markets, and the possible need for adjustment in the stance of policy to contain inflationary pressures. 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20021106.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1 14 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 34 percent the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity however incoming economic data have tended to confirm that greater uncertainty in part attributable to heightened geopolitical risks is currently inhibiting spending production and employment inflation and inflation expectations remain well contained in these circumstances the committee believes that todays additional monetary easing should prove helpful as the economy works its way through this current soft spot with this action the committee believes that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20050809.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3 12 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity aggregate spending despite high energy prices appears to have strengthened since late winter and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer term inflation expectations remain well contained but pressures on inflation have stayed elevated the committee perceives that with appropriate monetary policy action the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be contained the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20001003.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6 12 percent recent data have indicated that the expansion of aggregate demand has moderated to a pace closer to the enhanced rate of growth of the economys potential to produce the more rapid advances in productivity also continue to help contain costs and hold down underlying price pressures however the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level moreover the increase in energy prices though having limited effect on core measures of prices to date poses a risk of raising inflation expectations the subdued behavior of those expectations so far has contributed importantly to maintaining an environment conducive to maximum sustainable growth against the background of its long term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20001219.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy, keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6-1/2 percent. 10 | 11 | The drag on demand and profits from rising energy costs, as well as eroding consumer confidence, reports of substantial shortfalls in sales and earnings, and stress in some segments of the financial markets suggest that economic growth may be slowing further. While some inflation risks persist, they are diminished by the more moderate pace of economic activity and by the absence of any indication that longer-term inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor closely the evolving economic situation. 12 | 13 | Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee consequently believes that the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20001115.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6 12 percent the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level and the increase in energy prices though having limited effect on core measures of prices to date still harbors the possibility of raising inflation expectations the committee accordingly continues to see a risk of heightened inflation pressures however softening in business and household demand and tightening conditions in financial markets over recent months suggest that the economy could expand for a time at a pace below the productivity enhanced rate of growth of its potential to produce nonetheless to date the easing of demand pressures has not been sufficient to warrant a change in the committees judgment that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.19991116.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee today voted to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5 12 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 5 percent although cost pressures appear generally contained risks to sustainable growth persist despite tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest sensitive sectors of the economy and of accelerating productivity the expansion of activity continues in excess of the economys growth potential as a consequence the pool of available workers willing to take jobs has been drawn down further in recent months a trend that must eventually be contained if inflationary imbalances are to remain in check and economic expansion continue todays increase in the federal funds rate together with the policy actions in june and august and the firming of conditions more generally in unitedstates financial markets over the course of the year should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward as a consequence the directive the federal open market committee adopted is symmetrical with regard to the outlook for policy over the near term -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20050503.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity recent data suggest that the solid pace of spending growth has slowed somewhat partly in response to the earlier increases in energy prices labor market conditions however apparently continue to improve gradually pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident longer term inflation expectations remain well contained the committee perceives that with appropriate monetary policy action the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be contained the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.19990630.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | The Federal Open Market Committee today voted to raise its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 5 percent. Last fall the Committee reduced interest rates to counter a significant seizing-up of financial markets in the United States. Since then much of the financial strain has eased, foreign economies have firmed, and economic activity in the United States has moved forward at a brisk pace. Accordingly, the full degree of adjustment is judged no longer necessary. 9 | 10 | Labor markets have continued to tighten over recent quarters, but strengthening productivity growth has contained inflationary pressures. 11 | 12 | Owing to the uncertain resolution of the balance of conflicting forces in the economy going forward, the FOMC has chosen to adopt a directive that includes no predilection about near-term policy action. The Committee, nonetheless, recognizes that in the current dynamic environment it must be especially alert to the emergence, or potential emergence, of inflationary forces that could undermine economic growth. 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20021210.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent. 8 | The Committee continues to believe that this accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The limited number of incoming economic indicators since the November meeting, taken together, are not inconsistent with the economy working its way through its current soft spot. 9 | In these circumstances, the Committee believes that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals for the foreseeable future. 10 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke, Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Donald L. Kohn, Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern. 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20030318.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 14 percent while incoming economic data since the january meeting have been mixed recent labor market indicators have proven disappointing however the hesitancy of the economic expansion appears to owe importantly to oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical uncertainties the committee believes that as those uncertainties lift as most analysts expect the accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with ongoing growth in productivity will provide support to economic activity sufficient to engender an improving economic climate over time in light of the unusually large uncertainties clouding the geopolitical situation in the short run and their apparent effects on economic decisionmaking the committee does not believe it can usefully characterize the current balance of risks with respect to the prospects for its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth rather the committee decided to refrain from making that determination until some of those uncertainties abate in the current circumstances heightened surveillance is particularly informative -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20030129.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent. 8 | 9 | Oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical risks have reportedly fostered continued restraint on spending and hiring by businesses. However, the Committee believes that as those risks lift, as most analysts expect, the accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with ongoing growth in productivity, will provide support to an improving economic climate over time. 10 | 11 | In these circumstances, the Committee believes that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals for the foreseeable future. 12 | 13 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke, Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson, and Robert T. Parry. 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20050322.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 34 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity output evidently continues to grow at a solid pace despite the rise in energy prices and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually though longer term inflation expectations remain well contained pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident the rise in energy prices however has not notably fed through to core consumer prices the committee perceives that with appropriate monetary policy action the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be contained the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20000822.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy, keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6-1/2 percent. 10 | 11 | Recent data have indicated that the expansion of aggregate demand is moderating toward a pace closer to the rate of growth of the economy's potential to produce. The data also have indicated that more rapid advances in productivity have been raising that potential growth rate as well as containing costs and holding down underlying price pressures. 12 | 13 | Nonetheless, the Committee remains concerned about the risk of a continuing gap between the growth of demand and potential supply at a time when the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level. 14 | 15 | Against the background of its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20040810.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 12 percent the committee believes that even after this action the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity in recent months output growth has moderated and the pace of improvement in labor market conditions has slowed this softness likely owes importantly to the substantial rise in energy prices the economy nevertheless appears poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion going forward inflation has been somewhat elevated this year though a portion of the rise in prices seems to reflect transitory factors the committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal with underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20000628.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy, keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6-1/2 percent. 10 | 11 | Recent data suggest that the expansion of aggregate demand may be moderating toward a pace closer to the rate of growth of the economy's potential to produce. Although core measures of prices are rising slightly faster than a year ago, continuing rapid advances in productivity have been containing costs and holding down underlying price pressures. 12 | 13 | Nonetheless, signs that growth in demand is moving to a sustainable pace are still tentative and preliminary, and the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level. 14 | 15 | In these circumstances, and against the background of its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20011106.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 1-1/2 percent. 8 | 9 | Heightened uncertainty and concerns about a deterioration in business conditions both here and abroad are damping economic activity. For the foreseeable future, then, the Committee continues to believe that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness. 10 | 11 | Although the necessary reallocation of resources to enhance security may restrain advances in productivity for a time, the long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate. 12 | 13 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved the request submitted by the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. 14 | 15 | 16 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20030625.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 2 percent the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity is providing important ongoing support to economic activity recent signs point to a firming in spending markedly improved financial conditions and labor and product markets that are stabilizing the economy nonetheless has yet to exhibit sustainable growth with inflationary expectations subdued the committee judged that a slightly more expansive monetary policy would add further support for an economy which it expects to improve over time the committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal in contrast the probability though minor of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level on balance the committee believes that the latter concern is likely to predominate for the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20051101.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent elevated energy prices and hurricane related disruptions in economic activity have temporarily depressed output and employment however monetary policy accommodation coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity that will likely be augmented by planned rebuilding in the hurricane affected areas the cumulative rise in energy and other costs has the potential to add to inflation pressures however core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer term inflation expectations remain contained the committee perceives that with appropriate monetary policy action the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be contained the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20020813.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent. 8 | 9 | The softening in the growth of aggregate demand that emerged this spring has been prolonged in large measure by weakness in financial markets and heightened uncertainty related to problems in corporate reporting and governance. 10 | 11 | The current accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still-robust underlying growth in productivity, should be sufficient to foster an improving business climate over time. 12 | 13 | Nonetheless, the Committee recognizes that, for the foreseeable future, against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness. 14 | 15 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke, Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Donald L. Kohn, Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern. 16 | 17 | 18 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.19991005.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to leave its target for the federal funds rate unchanged. 10 | 11 | Strengthening productivity growth has been fostering favorable trends in unit costs and prices, and much recent information suggests that these trends have been sustained. 12 | 13 | Nonetheless, the growth of demand has continued to outpace that of supply, as evidenced by a decreasing pool of available workers willing to take jobs. In these circumstances, the Federal Open Market Committee will need to be especially alert in the months ahead to the potential for costs to increase significantly in excess of productivity in a manner that could contribute to inflation pressures and undermine the impressive performance of the economy. 14 | 15 | Against this background, the Committee adopted a directive that was biased toward a possible firming of policy going forward. Committee members emphasized that such a directive did not signify a commitment to near-term action. The Committee will need to evaluate additional information on the balance of aggregate supply and demand and conditions in financial markets. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20011002.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 2-1/2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 2 percent. 7 | 8 | The terrorist attacks have significantly heightened uncertainty in an economy that was already weak. Business and household spending as a consequence are being further damped. Nonetheless, the long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate. 9 | 10 | The Committee continues to believe that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. 11 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests 12 | submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, 13 | New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, Kansas City and San 14 | Francisco. 15 | 16 | 17 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20020507.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent. 8 | 9 | The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Committee confirms that economic activity has been receiving considerable upward impetus from a marked swing in inventory investment. Nonetheless, the degree of the strengthening in final demand over coming quarters, an essential element in sustained economic expansion, is still uncertain. 10 | 11 | In these circumstances, although the stance of monetary policy is currently accommodative, the Committee believes that, for the foreseeable future, against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals. 12 | 13 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern. 14 | 15 | Voting against the action: none. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20001115.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy, keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6-1/2 percent. 10 | 11 | The utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level, and the increase in energy prices, though having limited effect on core measures of prices to date, still harbors the possibility of raising inflation expectations. The Committee, accordingly, continues to see a risk of heightened inflation pressures. However, softening in business and household demand and tightening conditions in financial markets over recent months suggest that the economy could expand for a time at a pace below the productivity-enhanced rate of growth of its potential to produce. 12 | 13 | Nonetheless, to date the easing of demand pressures has not been sufficient to warrant a change in the Committee's judgment that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future. 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20020319.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 34 percent the information that has become available since the last meeting of the committee indicates that the economy bolstered by a marked swing in inventory investment is expanding at a significant pace nonetheless the degree of the strengthening in final demand over coming quarters an essential element in sustained economic expansion is still uncertain in these circumstances although the stance of monetary policy is currently accommodative the committee believes that for the foreseeable future against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals the committee decided to include in its announcements following its meetings the roll call of the vote on the federal funds rate target including the preferred policy choice of any dissenters this action accelerates the release of this information currently available in the minutes with a lag to conform to this new practice the board of governors also decided to report in the written announcement the roll call of any vote on the discount rate also including the preferred policy choice of any dissenters -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20001003.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the existing stance of monetary policy, keeping its target for the federal funds rate at 6-1/2 percent. 11 | 12 | 13 | Recent data have indicated that the expansion of aggregate demand has moderated to a pace closer to the enhanced rate of growth of the economy's potential to produce. The more rapid advances in productivity also continue to help contain costs and hold down underlying price pressures. 14 | 15 | 16 | However, the utilization of the pool of available workers remains at an unusually high level. Moreover, the increase in energy prices, though having limited effect on core measures of prices to date, poses a risk of raising inflation expectations. The subdued behavior of those expectations so far has contributed importantly to maintaining an environment conducive to maximum sustainable growth. 17 | 18 | 19 | Against the background of its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the future. 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20011211.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-3/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 1-1/4 percent. 8 | 9 | Economic activity remains soft, with underlying inflation likely to edge lower from relatively modest levels. To be sure, weakness in demand shows signs of abating, but those signs are preliminary and tentative. The Committee continues to believe that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. 10 | 11 | Although the necessary reallocation of resources to enhance security may restrain advances in productivity for a time, the long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate. 12 | 13 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and San Francisco. 14 | 15 | 16 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20010320.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 5 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 4 12 percent persistent pressures on profit margins are restraining investment spending and through declines in equity wealth consumption the associated backup in inventories has induced a rapid response in manufacturing output and with spending having firmed a bit since last year inventory adjustment appears to be well underway although current developments do not appear to have materially diminished the prospects for long term growth in productivity excess productive capacity has emerged recently the possibility that this excess could continue for some time and the potential for weakness in global economic conditions suggest substantial risks that demand and production could remain soft in these circumstances when the economic situation could be evolving rapidly the federal reserve will need to monitor developments closely the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20010821.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-1/2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3 percent. Today's action by the FOMC brings the decline in the target federal funds rate since the beginning of the year to 300 basis points. 8 | 9 | Household demand has been sustained, but business profits and capital spending continue to weaken and growth abroad is slowing, weighing on the U.S. economy. The associated easing of pressures on labor and product markets is expected to keep inflation contained. 10 | 11 | Although long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable, the Committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. 12 | 13 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City and Dallas. 14 | 15 | 16 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20040316.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. 7 | 8 | The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid pace. Although job losses have slowed, new hiring has lagged. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low. 9 | 10 | The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation. 11 | 12 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole. 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20020626.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent. 8 | 9 | The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Committee confirms that economic activity is continuing to increase. However, both the upward impetus from the swing in inventory investment and the growth in final demand appear to have moderated. The Committee expects the rate of increase of final demand to pick up over coming quarters, supported in part by robust underlying growth in productivity, but the degree of the strengthening remains uncertain. 10 | 11 | In these circumstances, although the stance of monetary policy is currently accommodative, the Committee believes that, for the foreseeable future, against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals. 12 | 13 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern. 14 | 15 | Voting against the action: none. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20040128.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. 7 | 8 | The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly. Although new hiring remains subdued, other indicators suggest an improvement in the labor market. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low. 9 | 10 | The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation. 11 | 12 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole. 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20000516.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee voted today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 6-1/2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point increase in the discount rate to 6 percent. 10 | 11 | Increases in demand have remained in excess of even the rapid pace of productivity-driven gains in potential supply, exerting continued pressure on resources. The Committee is concerned that this disparity in the growth of demand and potential supply will continue, which could foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economy's outstanding performance. 12 | 13 | Against the background of its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information already available, the Committee believes the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future. 14 | 15 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, and San Francisco. The discount rate is the rate charged depository institutions when they borrow short-term adjustment credit from their district Federal Reserve Banks. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20010131.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 5 12 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 5 percent consumer and business confidence has eroded further exacerbated by rising energy costs that continue to drain consumer purchasing power and press on business profit margins partly as a consequence retail sales and business spending on capital equipment have weakened appreciably in response manufacturing production has been cut back sharply with new technologies appearing to have accelerated the response of production and demand to potential excesses in the stock of inventories and capital equipment taken together and with inflation contained these circumstances have called for a rapid and forceful response of monetary policy the longer term advances in technology and accompanying gains in productivity however exhibit few signs of abating and these gains along with the lower interest rates should support growth of the economy over time nonetheless the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20000202.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee voted today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-3/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 5-1/4 percent. 10 | 11 | The Committee remains concerned that over time increases in demand will continue to exceed the growth in potential supply, even after taking account of the pronounced rise in productivity growth. Such trends could foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economy's record economic expansion. 12 | 13 | Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future. 14 | 15 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City and San Francisco. The discount rate is the rate charged depository institutions when they borrow short-term adjustment credit from their district Federal Reserve Banks. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20010627.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-3/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3-1/4 percent. Today's action by the FOMC brings the decline in the target federal funds rate since the beginning of the year to 275 basis points. 8 | 9 | The patterns evident in recent months--declining profitability and business capital spending, weak expansion of consumption, and slowing growth abroad--continue to weigh on the economy. The associated easing of pressures on labor and product markets is expected to keep inflation contained. 10 | 11 | Although continuing favorable trends bolster long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy, the Committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. 12 | 13 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and San Francisco. 14 | 15 | 16 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20000321.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee voted today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 5-1/2 percent. 10 | 11 | Economic conditions and considerations addressed by the Committee are essentially the same as when the Committee met in February. The Committee remains concerned that increases in demand will continue to exceed the growth in potential supply, which could foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economy's record economic expansion. 12 | 13 | Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future. 14 | 15 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City and San Francisco. The discount rate is the rate charged depository institutions when they borrow short-term adjustment credit from their district Federal Reserve Banks. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20010515.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4 percent in a related action the board of governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3 12 percent a significant reduction in excess inventories seems well advanced consumption and housing expenditures have held up reasonably well though activity in these areas has flattened recently investment in capital equipment however has continued to decline the erosion in current and prospective profitability in combination with considerable uncertainty about the business outlook seems likely to hold down capital spending going forward this potential restraint together with the possible effects of earlier reductions in equity wealth on consumption and the risk of slower growth abroad continues to weigh on the economy with pressures on labor and product markets easing inflation is expected to remain contained although measured productivity growth stalled in the first quarter the impressive underlying rate of increase that developed in recent years appears to be largely intact supporting longer term prospects the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20030916.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. 8 | 9 | The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that spending is firming, although the labor market has been weakening. Business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted. 10 | 11 | The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period. 12 | 13 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Robert T. Parry; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr. 14 | 15 | 16 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20031028.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. 8 | 9 | The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that spending is firming, and the labor market appears to be stabilizing. Business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted. 10 | 11 | The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period. 12 | 13 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Robert T. Parry; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr. 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20030812.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. 7 | 8 | The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still-robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period shows that spending is firming, although labor market indicators are mixed. Business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted. 9 | 10 | The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low is likely to be the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period. 11 | 12 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Robert T. Parry; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr. 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20020924.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent. 8 | 9 | The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Committee suggests that aggregate demand is growing at a moderate pace. 10 | 11 | Over time, the current accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity, should be sufficient to foster an improving business climate. However, considerable uncertainty persists about the extent and timing of the expected pickup in production and employment owing in part to the emergence of heightened geopolitical risks. 12 | 13 | Consequently, the Committee believes that, for the foreseeable future, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness. 14 | 15 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Jerry L. Jordan; Donald L. Kohn; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern. 16 | 17 | Voting against the action were: Edward M. Gramlich and Robert D. McTeer, Jr. 18 | 19 | Governor Gramlich and President McTeer preferred a reduction in the target for the federal funds rate. 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20051213.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4-1/4 percent. 4 | Despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions, the expansion in economic activity appears solid. Core inflation has stayed relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained. Nevertheless, possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflation pressures. 5 | The Committee judges that some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives. 6 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern. 7 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis point increase in the discount rate to 5-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. 8 | 9 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20030506.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent. 8 | 9 | Recent readings on production and employment, though mostly reflecting decisions made before the conclusion of hostilities, have proven disappointing. However, the ebbing of geopolitical tensions has rolled back oil prices, bolstered consumer confidence, and strengthened debt and equity markets. These developments, along with the accommodative stance of monetary policy and ongoing growth in productivity, should foster an improving economic climate over time. 10 | 11 | Although the timing and extent of that improvement remain uncertain, the Committee perceives that over the next few quarters the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth are roughly equal. In contrast, over the same period, the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level. The Committee believes that, taken together, the balance of risks to achieving its goals is weighted toward weakness over the foreseeable future. 12 | 13 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Robert T. Parry. 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.19990824.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | The Federal Open Market Committee today voted to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent. 9 | 10 | With financial markets functioning more normally, and with persistent strength in domestic demand, foreign economies firming and labor markets remaining very tight, the degree of monetary ease required to address the global financial market turmoil of last fall is no longer consistent with sustained, noninflationary, economic expansion. 11 | 12 | Today's increase in the federal funds rate, together with the policy action in June and the firming of conditions more generally in U.S. financial markets over recent months, should markedly diminish the risk of rising inflation going forward. As a consequence, the directive the Federal Open Market Committee adopted is symmetrical with regard to the outlook for policy over the near term. 13 | 14 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. The discount rate is the interest rate that is charged depository institutions when they borrow from their district Federal Reserve Banks. 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20040504.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for 8 | the federal funds rate at 1 percent. 9 | The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary 10 | policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing 11 | important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated 12 | over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand 13 | at a solid rate and hiring appears to have picked up. Although incoming 14 | inflation data have moved somewhat higher, long-term inflation expectations 15 | appear to have remained well contained. 16 | The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment 17 | of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. Similarly, 18 | the risks to the goal of price stability have moved into balance. At this 19 | juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee believes 20 | that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be 21 | measured. 22 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy actions were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; 23 | Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger 24 | W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; 25 | Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole. 26 | 27 | 28 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20031209.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for 7 | the federal funds rate at 1 percent. 8 | The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary 9 | policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing 10 | important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated 11 | over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly, 12 | and the labor market appears to be improving modestly. Increases in core 13 | consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low. 14 | The Committee perceives 15 | that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth 16 | for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome 17 | fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost 18 | equal to that of a rise in inflation. However, with inflation quite low 19 | and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation 20 | can be maintained for a considerable period. 21 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; 22 | Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. 23 | Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack 24 | Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Robert T. 25 | Parry. 26 | 27 | 28 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.clean.np/statement.fomc.20050920.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | the federal open market committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3 34 percent output appeared poised to continue growing at a good pace before the tragic toll of hurricane katrina the widespread devastation in the gulf region the associated dislocation of economic activity and the boost to energy prices imply that spending production and employment will be set back in the near term in addition to elevating premiums for some energy products the disruption to the production and refining infrastructure may add to energy price volatility while these unfortunate developments have increased uncertainty about near term economic performance it is the committees view that they do not pose a more persistent threat rather monetary policy accommodation coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity is providing ongoing support to economic activity higher energy and other costs have the potential to add to inflation pressures however core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer term inflation expectations remain contained the committee perceives that with appropriate monetary policy action the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal with underlying inflation expected to be contained the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured nonetheless the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20030318.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent. 9 | 10 | While incoming economic data since the January meeting have been mixed, recent labor market indicators have proven disappointing. However, the hesitancy of the economic expansion appears to owe importantly to oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical uncertainties. The Committee believes that as those uncertainties lift, as most analysts expect, the accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with ongoing growth in productivity, will provide support to economic activity sufficient to engender an improving economic climate over time. 11 | 12 | In light of the unusually large uncertainties clouding the geopolitical situation in the short run and their apparent effects on economic decisionmaking, the Committee does not believe it can usefully characterize the current balance of risks with respect to the prospects for its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. Rather, the Committee decided to refrain from making that determination until some of those uncertainties abate. In the current circumstances, heightened surveillance is particularly informative. 13 | 14 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Robert T. Parry. 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.19991116.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee today voted to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 5 percent. 10 | 11 | Although cost pressures appear generally contained, risks to sustainable growth persist. Despite tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-sensitive sectors of the economy and of accelerating productivity, the expansion of activity continues in excess of the economy's growth potential. As a consequence, the pool of available workers willing to take jobs has been drawn down further in recent months, a trend that must eventually be contained if inflationary imbalances are to remain in check and economic expansion continue. 12 | 13 | Today's increase in the federal funds rate, together with the policy actions in June and August and the firming of conditions more generally in U.S. financial markets over the course of the year, should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward. As a consequence, the directive the Federal Open Market Committee adopted is symmetrical with regard to the outlook for policy over the near term. 14 | 15 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Cleveland, Richmond and Kansas City. The discount rate is the rate charged depository institutions when they borrow short-term adjustment credit from their district Federal Reserve Banks. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20010320.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 5 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 4-1/2 percent. 10 | 11 | Persistent pressures on profit margins are restraining investment spending and, through declines in equity wealth, consumption. The associated backup in inventories has induced a rapid response in manufacturing output and, with spending having firmed a bit since last year, inventory adjustment appears to be well underway. 12 | 13 | Although current developments do not appear to have materially diminished the prospects for long-term growth in productivity, excess productive capacity has emerged recently. The possibility that this excess could continue for some time and the potential for weakness in global economic conditions suggest substantial risks that demand and production could remain soft. In these circumstances, when the economic situation could be evolving rapidly, the Federal Reserve will need to monitor developments closely. 14 | 15 | The Committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. 16 | 17 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of all twelve Reserve Banks. 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20020319.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-3/4 percent. 8 | 9 | The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Committee indicates that the economy, bolstered by a marked swing in inventory investment, is expanding at a significant pace. Nonetheless, the degree of the strengthening in final demand over coming quarters, an essential element in sustained economic expansion, is still uncertain. 10 | 11 | In these circumstances, although the stance of monetary policy is currently accommodative, the Committee believes that, for the foreseeable future, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals. 12 | 13 | The Committee decided to include in its announcements following its meetings the roll call of the vote on the federal funds rate target, including the preferred policy choice of any dissenters. This action accelerates the release of this information, currently available in the Minutes with a lag. To conform to this new practice, the Board of Governors also decided to report in the written announcement the roll call of any vote on the discount rate, also including the preferred policy choice of any dissenters. 14 | 15 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern. 16 | 17 | 18 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /README.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # Fed_Funds_ML 2 | 3 | ## About 4 | This is a personal project to demonstrate whether Federal Funds rate changes can be accurately predicted 5 | using FOMC meetings minutes, by leveraging machine learning, primarily NLP (Natural Language Processing). 6 | The FOMC is the policy governing body of the US Federal Reserve Bank which is the central bank of the US. 7 | 8 | The results achieved were a 94% prediction rate on test data (unseen data). I used four different machine 9 | learning models: Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Decision Trees. 10 | The model that worked best was Naive Bayes. 11 | 12 | To see a presentation of this project online [click here](http://bit.ly/Fed_Funds_NLP). 13 | 14 | For a detailed wriiten overview of this project see the pdf in this repo called "Fed_Funds_ML_Project_Report". 15 | This report includes sections on project overview, data wrangling, statistical analysis, and machine learning. 16 | 17 | ## Running the Project 18 | 19 | Use this on the command line to start your Jupyter Notebook to get more processing power else it will stall out: 20 | 21 | ```jupyter notebook --NotebookApp.iopub_data_rate_limit=10000000000``` 22 | 23 | ## Contributing 24 | 25 | This was built by Michelle Bonat. It's not currently open for contributions, but I would love to hear any comments and suggestions about how you have modified this code. 26 | Contact me through the methods noted below. 27 | 28 | ## Authors 29 | 30 | * **Michelle Bonat** - *Initial work* - Contact me through [michellebonat.com](http://michellebonat.com/) or on [GitHub](https://github.com/michellebonat) 31 | 32 | ## License 33 | 34 | This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the [LICENSE.md](LICENSE.md) file for details 35 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20021106.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1 1/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3/4 percent. 8 | 9 | The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still-robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. However, incoming economic data have tended to confirm that greater uncertainty, in part attributable to heightened geopolitical risks, is currently inhibiting spending, production, and employment. Inflation and inflation expectations remain well contained. 10 | 11 | In these circumstances, the Committee believes that today's additional monetary easing should prove helpful as the economy works its way through this current soft spot. With this action, the Committee believes that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals in the foreseeable future. 12 | 13 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke, Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Donald L. Kohn, Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern. 14 | 15 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and New York. 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20041110.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent. 8 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions have improved. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained. 9 | The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. 10 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward 11 | M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; 12 | Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole. 13 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 3 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City. 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20050202.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-1/2 percent. 4 | 5 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained. 6 | 7 | The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. 8 | 9 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern. 10 | 11 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20010515.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. 6 | 7 | A significant reduction in excess inventories seems well advanced. Consumption and housing expenditures have held up reasonably well, though activity in these areas has flattened recently. Investment in capital equipment, however, has continued to decline. The erosion in current and prospective profitability, in combination with considerable uncertainty about the business outlook, seems likely to hold down capital spending going forward. This potential restraint, together with the possible effects of earlier reductions in equity wealth on consumption and the risk of slower growth abroad, continues to weigh on the economy. 8 | 9 | With pressures on labor and product markets easing, inflation is expected to remain contained. Although measured productivity growth stalled in the first quarter, the impressive underlying rate of increase that developed in recent years appears to be largely intact, supporting longer-term prospects. 10 | 11 | The Committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. 12 | 13 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Richmond, Chicago, 14 | St. Louis and San Francisco. 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20050630.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-1/4 percent. 4 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Pressures on inflation have stayed elevated, but longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained. 5 | The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. 6 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; 7 | Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; Edward M. Gramlich; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; 8 | Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern. 9 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 4-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. 10 | 11 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20010131.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 5-1/2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 5 percent. 10 | 11 | Consumer and business confidence has eroded further, exacerbated by rising energy costs that continue to drain consumer purchasing power and press on business profit margins. Partly as a consequence, retail sales and business spending on capital equipment have weakened appreciably. In response, manufacturing production has been cut back sharply, with new technologies appearing to have accelerated the response of production and demand to potential excesses in the stock of inventories and capital equipment. 12 | 13 | Taken together, and with inflation contained, these circumstances have called for a rapid and forceful response of monetary policy. The longer-term advances in technology and accompanying gains in productivity, however, exhibit few signs of abating and these gains, along with the lower interest rates, should support growth of the economy over time. 14 | 15 | Nonetheless, the Committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future. 16 | 17 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas and San Francisco. 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20050809.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-1/2 percent. 5 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Aggregate spending, despite high energy prices, appears to have strengthened since late winter, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained, but pressures on inflation have stayed elevated. 6 | The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. 7 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; 8 | Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; 9 | Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern. 10 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 4-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20040630.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/4 percent. 8 | 9 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid pace and labor market conditions have improved. Although incoming inflation data are somewhat elevated, a portion of the increase in recent months appears to have been due to transitory factors. 10 | 11 | The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal. With underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to 12 | maintain price stability. 13 | 14 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole. 15 | 16 | In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 2-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco. 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20040921.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-3/4 percent. 9 | 10 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. After moderating earlier this year partly in response to the substantial rise in energy prices, output growth appears to have regained some traction, and labor market conditions have improved modestly. Despite the rise in energy prices, inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months. 11 | 12 | The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. 13 | 14 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole. 15 | 16 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 2-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /data/dates.sort.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | 19990518 2 | 19990630 3 | 19990824 4 | 19991005 5 | 19991116 6 | 19991221 7 | 20000202 8 | 20000321 9 | 20000516 10 | 20000628 11 | 20000822 12 | 20001003 13 | 20001115 14 | 20001219 15 | 20010131 16 | 20010320 17 | 20010515 18 | 20010627 19 | 20010821 20 | 20011002 21 | 20011106 22 | 20011211 23 | 20020130 24 | 20020319 25 | 20020507 26 | 20020626 27 | 20020813 28 | 20020924 29 | 20021106 30 | 20021210 31 | 20030129 32 | 20030318 33 | 20030506 34 | 20030625 35 | 20030812 36 | 20030916 37 | 20031028 38 | 20031209 39 | 20040128 40 | 20040316 41 | 20040504 42 | 20040630 43 | 20040810 44 | 20040921 45 | 20041110 46 | 20041214 47 | 20050202 48 | 20050322 49 | 20050503 50 | 20050630 51 | 20050809 52 | 20050920 53 | 20051101 54 | 20051213 55 | 20060131 56 | 20060328 57 | 20060510 58 | 20060629 59 | 20060808 60 | 20060920 61 | 20061025 62 | 20061212 63 | 20070131 64 | 20070321 65 | 20070509 66 | 20070618 67 | 20070807 68 | 20070918 69 | 20071031 70 | 20071211 71 | 20080130 72 | 20080318 73 | 20080430 74 | 20080625 75 | 20080805 76 | 20080916 77 | 20081029 78 | 20081216 79 | 20090128 80 | 20090318 81 | 20090429 82 | 20090624 83 | 20090812 84 | 20090923 85 | 20091104 86 | 20091216 87 | 20100127 88 | 20100316 89 | 20100428 90 | 20100623 91 | 20100810 92 | 20100921 93 | 20101103 94 | 20101214 95 | 20110126 96 | 20110315 97 | 20110427 98 | 20110622 99 | 20110809 100 | 20110921 101 | 20111102 102 | 20111213 103 | 20120125 104 | 20120313 105 | 20120425 106 | 20120620 107 | 20120801 108 | 20120913 109 | 20121024 110 | 20121212 111 | 20130130 112 | 20130320 113 | 20130501 114 | 20130619 115 | 20130731 116 | 20130918 117 | 20131030 118 | 20131218 119 | 20140129 120 | 20140319 121 | 20140430 122 | 20140618 123 | 20140730 124 | 20140917 125 | 20141029 126 | 20141217 127 | 20150128 128 | 20150318 129 | 20150429 130 | 20150617 131 | 20150729 132 | 20150917 133 | 20151028 134 | 20151216 135 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20050503.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3 percent. 4 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Recent data suggest that the solid pace of spending growth has slowed somewhat, partly in response to the earlier increases in energy prices. Labor market conditions, however, apparently continue to improve gradually. Pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident. Longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained. 5 | The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the 6 | Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. 7 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; 8 | Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; 9 | Edward M. Gramlich; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; 10 | Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern. 11 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. 12 | 13 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20050322.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-3/4 percent. 4 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output evidently continues to grow at a solid pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Though longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained, pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident. The rise in energy prices, however, has not notably fed through to core consumer prices. 5 | The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. 6 | 7 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; 8 | Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; 9 | Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern. 10 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 3-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and San Francisco. 11 | 12 | 13 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20030625.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 2 percent. 8 | 9 | The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. Recent signs point to a firming in spending, markedly improved financial conditions, and labor and product markets that are stabilizing. The economy, nonetheless, has yet to exhibit sustainable growth. With inflationary expectations subdued, the Committee judged that a slightly more expansive monetary policy would add further support for an economy which it expects to improve over time. 10 | 11 | The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level. On balance, the Committee believes that the latter concern is likely to predominate for the foreseeable future. 12 | 13 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr. 14 | 15 | Voting against the action was Robert T. Parry. President Parry preferred a 50 basis point reduction in the target for the federal funds rate. 16 | 17 | In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20040810.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/2 percent. 9 | 10 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. In recent months, output growth has moderated and the pace of improvement in labor market conditions has slowed. This softness likely owes importantly to the substantial rise in energy prices. The economy nevertheless appears poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion going forward. Inflation has been somewhat elevated this year, though a portion of the rise in prices seems to reflect transitory factors. 11 | 12 | The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal. With underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. 13 | 14 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward 15 | M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole. 16 | 17 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 2-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20051101.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for 3 | the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent. 4 | Elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions in economic 5 | activity have temporarily depressed output and employment. However, monetary 6 | policy accommodation, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, 7 | is providing ongoing support to economic activity that will likely be 8 | augmented by planned rebuilding in the hurricane-affected areas. The cumulative 9 | rise in energy and other costs has the potential to add to inflation 10 | pressures; however, core inflation has been relatively low in recent months 11 | and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained. 12 | The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, 13 | the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth 14 | and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation 15 | expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation 16 | can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the 17 | Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill 18 | its obligation to maintain price stability. 19 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; 20 | Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, 21 | Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; 22 | Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern. 23 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis 24 | point increase in the discount rate to 5 percent. In taking this action, 25 | the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of 26 | the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, 27 | Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, 28 | and San Francisco. 29 | 30 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20050920.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-3/4 percent. 5 | 6 | 7 | Output appeared poised to continue growing at a good pace before the tragic toll of Hurricane Katrina. The widespread devastation in the Gulf region, the associated dislocation of economic activity, and the boost to energy prices imply that spending, production, and employment will be set back in the near term. In addition to elevating premiums for some energy products, the disruption to the production and refining infrastructure may add to energy price volatility. 8 | 9 | 10 | While these unfortunate developments have increased uncertainty about near-term economic performance, it is the Committee's view that they do not pose a more persistent threat. Rather, monetary policy accommodation, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Higher energy and other costs have the potential to add to inflation pressures. However, core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained. 11 | 12 | 13 | The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. 14 | 15 | 16 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern. Voting against was Mark W. Olson, who preferred no change in the federal funds rate target at this meeting. 17 | 18 | 19 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Kansas City. 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /statements/statements.raw/statement.fomc.20041214.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | For immediate release 2 | 3 | 4 | The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for 5 | the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-1/4 percent. 6 | The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary 7 | policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth 8 | in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output 9 | appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the earlier rise in energy 10 | prices, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Inflation 11 | and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained. 12 | The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment 13 | of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters 14 | to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively 15 | low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at 16 | a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will 17 | respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation 18 | to maintain price stability. 19 | Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; 20 | Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger 21 | W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; 22 | Cathy E. Minehan; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole. 23 | In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25 24 | basis point 25 | increase in the discount rate to 3-1/4 percent. In taking this action, 26 | the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of 27 | the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, 28 | Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, 29 | and San Francisco. 30 | In addition, the Committee unanimously decided to expedite the release 31 | of its minutes. Beginning with this meeting, the minutes of regularly 32 | scheduled meetings will be released three weeks after the date of the 33 | policy decision. The first set of expedited minutes will be released at 34 | 2 p.m. EST on January 4, 2005. 35 | 36 | 37 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /textmining_withnumbers.py: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # This is taken from the textmining package, which is described 2 | # at http://www.christianpeccei.com/textmining/, and extended to 3 | # not discard numeric characters by Miguel Acosta. 4 | import re, csv, os 5 | 6 | def simple_tokenize(document): 7 | """ 8 | Clean up a document and split into a list of words. 9 | 10 | Converts document (a string) to lowercase and strips out everything which 11 | is not a lowercase letter. 12 | 13 | """ 14 | document = document.lower() 15 | document = re.sub('[^a-z0-9]', ' ', document) 16 | return document.strip().split() 17 | 18 | 19 | class TermDocumentMatrix(object): 20 | 21 | """ 22 | Class to efficiently create a term-document matrix. 23 | 24 | The only initialization parameter is a tokenizer function, which should 25 | take in a single string representing a document and return a list of 26 | strings representing the tokens in the document. If the tokenizer 27 | parameter is omitted it defaults to using textmining.simple_tokenize 28 | 29 | Use the add_doc method to add a document (document is a string). Use the 30 | write_csv method to output the current term-document matrix to a csv 31 | file. You can use the rows method to return the rows of the matrix if 32 | you wish to access the individual elements without writing directly to a 33 | file. 34 | 35 | """ 36 | 37 | def __init__(self, tokenizer=simple_tokenize): 38 | """Initialize with tokenizer to split documents into words.""" 39 | # Set tokenizer to use for tokenizing new documents 40 | self.tokenize = tokenizer 41 | # The term document matrix is a sparse matrix represented as a 42 | # list of dictionaries. Each dictionary contains the word 43 | # counts for a document. 44 | self.sparse = [] 45 | # Keep track of the number of documents containing the word. 46 | self.doc_count = {} 47 | 48 | def add_doc(self, document): 49 | """Add document to the term-document matrix.""" 50 | # Split document up into list of strings 51 | words = self.tokenize(document) 52 | # Count word frequencies in this document 53 | word_counts = {} 54 | for word in words: 55 | word_counts[word] = word_counts.get(word, 0) + 1 56 | # Add word counts as new row to sparse matrix 57 | self.sparse.append(word_counts) 58 | # Add to total document count for each word 59 | for word in word_counts: 60 | self.doc_count[word] = self.doc_count.get(word, 0) + 1 61 | 62 | def rows(self, cutoff=2): 63 | """Helper function that returns rows of term-document matrix.""" 64 | # Get master list of words that meet or exceed the cutoff frequency 65 | words = [word for word in self.doc_count \ 66 | if self.doc_count[word] >= cutoff] 67 | # Return header 68 | yield words 69 | # Loop over rows 70 | for row in self.sparse: 71 | # Get word counts for all words in master list. If a word does 72 | # not appear in this document it gets a count of 0. 73 | data = [row.get(word, 0) for word in words] 74 | yield data 75 | 76 | def write_csv(self, filename, cutoff=2): 77 | """ 78 | Write term-document matrix to a CSV file. 79 | 80 | filename is the name of the output file (e.g. 'mymatrix.csv'). 81 | cutoff is an integer that specifies only words which appear in 82 | 'cutoff' or more documents should be written out as columns in 83 | the matrix. 84 | 85 | """ 86 | f = csv.writer(open(filename, 'wb')) 87 | for row in self.rows(cutoff=cutoff): 88 | f.writerow(row) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /PullStatements.py: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # Description: 2 | # This file downloads the FOMC statements from the Fed website, 3 | # www.federalreserve.gov, and stores them as individual files 4 | # in the directory 'statements'. 5 | 6 | # The file has been modified from it's originally published version which used python2. 7 | # The author of that original version is Miguel Acosta www.acostamiguel.com 8 | # ----- 9 | # Input: 10 | # A file in the directory 'data', called 'dates.sort.txt', 11 | # that contains FOMC meeting dates in the format YYYYMMDD, one date 12 | # per line. Currently, this file only contains dates through 13 | # 2015. If you run this and want more statements, you will need 14 | # to add the dates manually from the FOMC website, and possibly 15 | # edit the FOMCstatementURL function. 16 | # ----- 17 | # Output: 18 | # Files titles 'statements.fomc.YYYYMMDD', each of which contains 19 | # an FOMC statement. 20 | # ----- 21 | 22 | #--------------------------------- IMPORTS -----------------------------------# 23 | from bs4 import BeautifulSoup 24 | from urllib.request import urlopen 25 | from time import sleep 26 | import re,csv,os 27 | 28 | #-------------------------DEFINE GLOBAL VARIABLES-----------------------------# 29 | # Directory in which to place statements (careful in changing this--other 30 | # scripts in this package rely on it). 31 | outdir = os.path.join('statements','statements.raw') 32 | 33 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 34 | # FOMCstatementsURL: A function that returns the appropriate URL of the 35 | # FOMC statements. Given a date string in the format YYYYMMDD, it returns a 36 | # string with the appropriate URL. I collected the URLs manually. 37 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 38 | 39 | def FOMCstatementURL(date): 40 | year = date[0:4] 41 | dateInt = int(date) 42 | 43 | if dateInt == 20081216: 44 | urlout = 'http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/' + \ 45 | 'press/monetary/' + date + 'b.htm' 46 | elif dateInt >= 19990501 and dateInt < 20020331: 47 | urlout = 'http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/' + \ 48 | 'press/general/' + year + '/' + date + '/' 49 | elif dateInt >= 20020501 and dateInt < 20030000: 50 | urlout = 'http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/' + \ 51 | 'monetary/' + year + '/' + date + '/' 52 | elif dateInt >= 20030000 and dateInt < 20060000: 53 | urlout = 'http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/' + \ 54 | 'monetary/' + year + '/' + date + '/default.htm' 55 | elif dateInt >= 20050000: 56 | urlout = 'http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/' + \ 57 | 'monetary/' + date + 'a.htm' 58 | 59 | return urlout 60 | 61 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 62 | # getDate: A function that uses the BeautifulSoup library to scrape the 63 | # text of the FOMC statement from the Fed website, which the function 64 | # returns as a string. Note that there is little effort to clean the text--- 65 | # that is reserved for another step. 66 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 67 | 68 | def getStatement(mtgDate): 69 | print('Pulling: ' + mtgDate) 70 | html = urlopen(FOMCstatementURL(mtgDate)).read() 71 | soup = BeautifulSoup(html) 72 | allText = soup.get_text(" ") 73 | startLoc = re.search("[Ff]or\s[Ii]mmediate\s[Rr]elease", \ 74 | allText).start() 75 | statementText = allText[startLoc:] 76 | endLoc = re.search("[0-9]{4}\s[Mm]onetary\s[Pp]olicy", \ 77 | statementText).start() 78 | statementText = statementText[:endLoc] 79 | statementText = statementText.encode('ascii', 'ignore').decode('ascii') 80 | return statementText 81 | 82 | 83 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 84 | # The Main function reads the file data/data.sort.txt, forms a list of the 85 | # meeting dates contained therein, and loops over them, at each iteration 86 | # calling the function getStatement to get the FOMC statement from 87 | # that date. It then prints out the results to individual files. 88 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 89 | 90 | def main(): 91 | 92 | releaseDates = [line.rstrip() for line in 93 | open(os.path.join('data','dates.sort.txt'), 'r')] 94 | 95 | for releaseDate in releaseDates: 96 | data = getStatement(releaseDate) 97 | # Give the Fed servers a break 98 | sleep(2) 99 | # The URL for 20070628 is stored at 20070618 page. 100 | if releaseDate.find("20070618")>-1: 101 | releaseDate = "20070628" 102 | filename="statement.fomc." + releaseDate +".txt" 103 | f = open(os.path.join(outdir,filename), 'w') 104 | f.write(data) 105 | f.close 106 | 107 | 108 | if __name__ == "__main__": 109 | main() -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /data/stoplist_mcdonald_comb.txt: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | A 2 | ABOUT 3 | ABOVE 4 | ACROSS 5 | AFOREMENTIONED 6 | AFORESAID 7 | AFTER 8 | AFTERWARDS 9 | AGAIN 10 | AGAINST 11 | ALL 12 | ALMOST 13 | ALONE 14 | ALONG 15 | ALREADY 16 | ALSO 17 | ALTHOUGH 18 | ALWAYS 19 | AMONG 20 | AMONGST 21 | AN 22 | AND 23 | ANOTHER 24 | ANY 25 | ANYHOW 26 | ANYONE 27 | ANYTHING 28 | ANYWHERE 29 | ARE 30 | AROUND 31 | AS 32 | AT 33 | BE 34 | BECAME 35 | BECAUSE 36 | BECOME 37 | BECOMES 38 | BECOMING 39 | BEEN 40 | BEFORE 41 | BEFOREHAND 42 | BEHIND 43 | BEING 44 | BELOW 45 | BESIDE 46 | BESIDES 47 | BETWEEN 48 | BEYOND 49 | BOTH 50 | BUT 51 | BY 52 | CAN 53 | CANNOT 54 | CO 55 | COULD 56 | DID 57 | DO 58 | DOES 59 | DOWN 60 | DURING 61 | EACH 62 | EG 63 | EITHER 64 | ELSE 65 | ELSEWHERE 66 | ENOUGH 67 | ETC 68 | EVEN 69 | EVER 70 | EVERY 71 | EVERYONE 72 | EVERYTHING 73 | EVERYWHERE 74 | EXCEPT 75 | FEW 76 | FIRST 77 | FOR 78 | FORMER 79 | FORMERLY 80 | FORTHWITH 81 | FROM 82 | FURTHER 83 | FURTHERANCE 84 | HAD 85 | HAS 86 | HAVE 87 | HAVING 88 | HE 89 | HENCE 90 | HER 91 | HERE 92 | HEREAFTER 93 | HEREBY 94 | HEREIN 95 | HEREINAFTER 96 | HEREOF 97 | HERETO 98 | HERETOFORE 99 | HEREUNDER 100 | HEREUNTO 101 | HEREUPON 102 | HEREWITH 103 | HERS 104 | HERSELF 105 | HIM 106 | HIMSELF 107 | HIS 108 | HOW 109 | HOWEVER 110 | I 111 | IE 112 | IF 113 | IN 114 | INC 115 | INDEED 116 | INSOFAR 117 | INTO 118 | IS 119 | IT 120 | ITS 121 | ITSELF 122 | LAST 123 | LATTER 124 | LATTERLY 125 | LEAST 126 | LESS 127 | LIKEWISE 128 | LTD 129 | MANY 130 | MAY 131 | ME 132 | MEANWHILE 133 | MIGHT 134 | MORE 135 | MOREOVER 136 | MOST 137 | MOSTLY 138 | MUCH 139 | MUST 140 | MY 141 | MYSELF 142 | NAMELY 143 | NEITHER 144 | NEVER 145 | NEVERTHELESS 146 | NEXT 147 | NO 148 | NOBODY 149 | NONE 150 | NOR 151 | NOT 152 | NOTHING 153 | NOW 154 | NOWHERE 155 | OF 156 | OFF 157 | OFTEN 158 | ONE 159 | ONLY 160 | ONTO 161 | OR 162 | OTHER 163 | OTHERS 164 | OTHERWISE 165 | OUR 166 | OURS 167 | OURSELVES 168 | OUT 169 | OVER 170 | OWN 171 | PER 172 | PERHAPS 173 | RATHER 174 | SAME 175 | SEEM 176 | SEEMED 177 | SEEMING 178 | SEEMS 179 | SEVERAL 180 | SHALL 181 | SHE 182 | SHOULD 183 | SINCE 184 | SO 185 | SOME 186 | SOMEHOW 187 | SOMEONE 188 | SOMETHING 189 | SOMETIME 190 | SOMETIMES 191 | SOMEWHERE 192 | STILL 193 | SUCH 194 | THAN 195 | THAT 196 | THE 197 | THEIR 198 | THEM 199 | THEMSELVES 200 | THEN 201 | THENCE 202 | THERE 203 | THEREAFTER 204 | THEREBY 205 | THEREFOR 206 | THEREFORE 207 | THEREFROM 208 | THEREIN 209 | THEREOF 210 | THEREON 211 | THERETO 212 | THERETOFORE 213 | THEREUNDER 214 | THEREUNTO 215 | THEREUPON 216 | THEREWITH 217 | THESE 218 | THEY 219 | THING 220 | THIS 221 | THOSE 222 | THOUGH 223 | THROUGH 224 | THROUGHOUT 225 | THRU 226 | THUS 227 | TO 228 | TOGETHER 229 | TOO 230 | TOWARD 231 | TOWARDS 232 | UNDER 233 | UNTIL 234 | UP 235 | UPON 236 | US 237 | VERY 238 | VIA 239 | WAS 240 | WE 241 | WELL 242 | WERE 243 | WHAT 244 | WHATEVER 245 | WHATSOEVER 246 | WHEN 247 | WHENCE 248 | WHENEVER 249 | WHERE 250 | WHEREAFTER 251 | WHEREAS 252 | WHEREBY 253 | WHEREIN 254 | WHEREOF 255 | WHEREUPON 256 | WHEREVER 257 | WHETHER 258 | WHITHER 259 | WHICH 260 | WHICHEVER 261 | WHILE 262 | WHO 263 | WHOEVER 264 | WHOLE 265 | WHOM 266 | WHOSE 267 | WHY 268 | WILL 269 | WITH 270 | WITHIN 271 | WITHOUT 272 | WOULD 273 | YET 274 | YOU 275 | YOUR 276 | YOURS 277 | YOURSELF 278 | YOURSELVES 279 | HUNDRED 280 | THOUSAND 281 | MILLION 282 | BILLION 283 | TRILLION 284 | DATE 285 | ANNUAL 286 | ANNUALLY 287 | ANNUM 288 | YEAR 289 | YEARLY 290 | QUARTER 291 | QUARTERLY 292 | QTR 293 | MONTH 294 | MONTHLY 295 | WEEK 296 | WEEKLY 297 | DAY 298 | DAILY 299 | JANUARY 300 | FEBRUARY 301 | MARCH 302 | APRIL 303 | MAY 304 | JUNE 305 | JULY 306 | AUGUST 307 | SEPTEMBER 308 | OCTOBER 309 | NOVEMBER 310 | DECEMBER 311 | JAN 312 | FEB 313 | MAR 314 | APR 315 | MAY 316 | JUN 317 | JUL 318 | AUG 319 | SEP 320 | SEPT 321 | OCT 322 | NOV 323 | DEC 324 | MONDAY 325 | TUESDAY 326 | WEDNESDAY 327 | THURSDAY 328 | FRIDAY 329 | SATURDAY 330 | SUNDAY 331 | ONE 332 | TWO 333 | THREE 334 | FOUR 335 | FIVE 336 | SIX 337 | SEVEN 338 | EIGHT 339 | NINE 340 | TEN 341 | ELEVEN 342 | TWELVE 343 | THIRTEEN 344 | FOURTEEN 345 | FIFTEEN 346 | SIXTEEN 347 | SEVENTEEN 348 | EIGHTEEN 349 | NINETEEN 350 | TWENTY 351 | THIRTY 352 | FORTY 353 | FIFTY 354 | SIXTY 355 | SEVENTY 356 | EIGHTY 357 | NINETY 358 | FIRST 359 | SECOND 360 | THIRD 361 | FOURTH 362 | FIFTH 363 | SIXTH 364 | SEVENTH 365 | EIGHTH 366 | NINTH 367 | TENTH 368 | I 369 | II 370 | III 371 | IV 372 | V 373 | VI 374 | VII 375 | VIII 376 | IX 377 | X 378 | XI 379 | XII 380 | XIII 381 | XIV 382 | XV 383 | XVI 384 | XVII 385 | XVIII 386 | XIX 387 | XX 388 | UNITED 389 | STATE 390 | NORTH 391 | SOUTH 392 | EAST 393 | NORTHEAST 394 | NORTHWEST 395 | SOUTHEAST 396 | SOUTHWEST 397 | WEST 398 | OCEAN 399 | SEA 400 | LAKE 401 | RIVER 402 | CREEK 403 | GULF 404 | MOUNTAIN 405 | STREET 406 | BOULEVARD 407 | BLVD 408 | PARKWAY 409 | CITY 410 | COUNTY 411 | COUNTRY 412 | PACIFIC 413 | ATLANTIC 414 | INDIAN 415 | MEDITERRANEAN 416 | COMMONWEALTH 417 | AMERICA 418 | AMERICAN 419 | YORK 420 | CHICAGO 421 | LAS 422 | VEGAS 423 | LOS 424 | ANGELES 425 | MILWAUKEE 426 | SUNNYVALE 427 | FREMONT 428 | CINCINNATI 429 | PHILADELPHIA 430 | MIAMI 431 | DALLAS 432 | FORT 433 | BOSTON 434 | HOUSTON 435 | WASHINGTON 436 | ATLANTA 437 | DETROIT 438 | SAN 439 | FRANSICO 440 | PHOENIX 441 | SEATTLE 442 | DIEGO 443 | MINNEAPOLIS 444 | MEMPHIS 445 | DENVER 446 | ST 447 | LOUIS 448 | PITTSBURGH 449 | MANHATTAN 450 | HOLLYWOOD 451 | COLUMBUS 452 | INDIANAPOLIS 453 | MUMBAI 454 | KARACHI 455 | ONTARIO 456 | TORONTO 457 | CAMBRIDGE 458 | DELHI 459 | SAO 460 | PAULO 461 | SHANGHAI 462 | MOSCOW 463 | SEOUL 464 | ISTANBUL 465 | TOKYO 466 | JAKARTA 467 | BEIJING 468 | LONDON 469 | LUXEMBOURG 470 | SINGAPORE 471 | REPUBLIC 472 | CHINA 473 | INDIA 474 | INDONESIA 475 | BRAZIL 476 | BRAZILIAN 477 | PAKISTAN 478 | BANGLADESH 479 | RUSSIA 480 | NIGERIA 481 | NOVA 482 | SCOTIA 483 | JAPAN 484 | MALAYSIA 485 | MEXICO 486 | MEXICAN 487 | PHILIPPINES 488 | VIETNAM 489 | GERMANY 490 | FRANCE 491 | KOREA 492 | SPAIN 493 | ARGENTINA 494 | BERMUDA 495 | COLUMBIA 496 | PUERTO 497 | CANADA 498 | CANADIAN 499 | AFRICA 500 | AFRICAN 501 | CHILE 502 | CHILEAN 503 | EUROPE 504 | EUROPEAN 505 | USA 506 | ITALY 507 | ITALIAN 508 | AUSTRALIA 509 | NETHERLANDS 510 | NORWAY 511 | PORTUGAL 512 | TAIWAN 513 | ARGENTINA 514 | SWITZERLAND 515 | SWISS 516 | SUISSE 517 | DENMARK 518 | CZECK 519 | HUNGARY 520 | FINLAND 521 | SCOTLAND 522 | COSTA 523 | RICA 524 | SWEDEN 525 | BELGIUM 526 | AUSTRIA 527 | TURKEY 528 | POLAND 529 | INDONESIA 530 | THAILAND 531 | VENEZUELA 532 | ASIA 533 | ZEALAND 534 | JAPANESE 535 | LATIN 536 | BRITISH 537 | CHINESE 538 | ALABAMA 539 | ALASKA 540 | ARIZONA 541 | ARKANSAS 542 | CALIFORNIA 543 | COLORADO 544 | CONNECTICUT 545 | DELAWARE 546 | FLORIDA 547 | GEORGIA 548 | HAWAII 549 | IDAHO 550 | ILLINOIS 551 | INDIANA 552 | IOWA 553 | KANSAS 554 | KENTUCKY 555 | LOUISIANA 556 | MAINE 557 | MARYLAND 558 | MASSACHUSETTS 559 | MICHIGAN 560 | MINNESOTA 561 | MISSISSIPPI 562 | MISSOURI 563 | MONTANA 564 | NEBRASKA 565 | NEVADA 566 | HAMPSHIRE 567 | JERSEY 568 | MEXICO 569 | NEW 570 | YORK 571 | OHIO 572 | OKLAHOMA 573 | OREGON 574 | PENNSYLVANIA 575 | RHODE 576 | ISLAND 577 | CAROLINA 578 | DAKOTA 579 | TENNESSEE 580 | TEXAS 581 | UTAH 582 | VERMONT 583 | VIRGINIA 584 | WASHINGTON 585 | WISCONSIN 586 | WYOMING -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /CleanStatements.py: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # Description: This file converts the raw FOMC Statements into cleaner 2 | # versions of themselves. 3 | # 4 | # This file leverages an open source version for the cleaning. 5 | # The content has been modified from it's originally published version and 6 | # adapted for python3. The author of that original version is 7 | # Miguel Acosta www.acostamiguel.com 8 | # 9 | # Input: The raw FOMC statements, downloaded from federalreserve.gov 10 | # by the python script pullStatements.py. These are 11 | # located in the directory statements/statements.raw 12 | # 13 | # Output: Two sets of cleaned FOMC statements: 14 | # (i) A set, located in the directory statements/statements.clean 15 | # of FOMC statements that have had header, footer, and voting 16 | # information removed. These files are currently being used 17 | # in this project. 18 | # (ii) A set, located in statements/statements.clean.np 19 | # of FOMC statements that have had header, footer, and voting 20 | # information removed. They have also been stemmed, words 21 | # have been concatenated, and numbers/stopwords 22 | # have been removed. These files are not currently being used 23 | # in this project. 24 | # 25 | #--------------------------------- IMPORTS -----------------------------------# 26 | import os, csv, re 27 | from os import listdir 28 | from os.path import isfile, join 29 | from nltk.stem.lancaster import LancasterStemmer 30 | from textmining_withnumbers import TermDocumentMatrix as TDM 31 | 32 | #-------------------------DEFINE GLOBAL VARIABLES-----------------------------# 33 | # Directory where the stop words and n-grams to concatenate are 34 | datadir = 'data' 35 | # Where the raw statements are 36 | statementdir = os.path.join('statements','statements.raw') 37 | # Where the clean statements will go (with and without preprocessing) 38 | cleanDir = os.path.join('statements','statements.clean') 39 | cleanDirNP = os.path.join('statements','statements.clean.np') 40 | # Where the cleaned documents should go 41 | outputDir = 'output' 42 | 43 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 44 | # getReplacementList: Returns two lists, a list of N n-grams (phrase with n 45 | # words) and a list with N "words" to replace the n-grams. The function reads 46 | # a file, list_name, where every odd entry is an n-gram, and every even entry 47 | # is a replacement. 48 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 49 | def getReplacementList (list_name): 50 | allWords = [line.rstrip('\n') for line in open(list_name, 'r') ] 51 | oldWords = [allWords[i] for i in range(len(allWords)) if i % 2 == 0] 52 | newWords = [allWords[i] for i in range(len(allWords)) if i % 2 == 1] 53 | return [oldWords, newWords] 54 | 55 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 56 | # cleanStatement: This function is the meat of this code--it performs all of the 57 | # cleaning/preprocessing described in the header of this document. It's 58 | # inputs are: 59 | # (1) statement : a string with the filename of a single FOMC statement 60 | # (2) locationold : Directory where raw statements are located (string) 61 | # (3) replacements: Output from getReplacementList 62 | # (4) locationnew : Directory where clean statements go (string) 63 | # (5) stoplist : A list of words to remove (list of strings) 64 | # (6) charsToKeep : A regular expression of the character types to keep 65 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 66 | def cleanStatement (statement, locationold, replacements, locationnew, \ 67 | stoplist, charsToKeep): 68 | # Read in the statement and convert it to lower case 69 | original = open(os.path.join(locationold,statement),'r').read().lower() 70 | 71 | clean = original 72 | # Remove punctuation and newlines first, to keep space between words 73 | for todelete in ['.', '\r\n', '\n', ',', '-', ';', ':']: 74 | clean = clean.replace(todelete, ' ') 75 | 76 | # Keep only the characters that you want to keep 77 | clean = re.sub(charsToKeep, '', clean) 78 | clean = clean.replace(' ', ' ') 79 | clean = clean.replace(' u s ', ' unitedstates ') 80 | 81 | # Remove anything before (and including) 'for immediate release' 82 | deleteBefore= re.search("[Ff]or\s[Ii]mmediate\s[Rr]elease", \ 83 | clean).start() + len ('for immediate release') 84 | clean = clean[deleteBefore:] 85 | 86 | # Looking for the end of the text 87 | intaking = re.search("in\staking\sthe\sdiscount\srate\saction",\ 88 | clean) 89 | votingfor = re.search("voting\sfor\sthe\sfomc", clean) 90 | if intaking == None and not votingfor == None: 91 | deleteAfter = votingfor.start() 92 | elif votingfor == None and not intaking == None: 93 | deleteAfter = intaking.start() 94 | elif votingfor == None and intaking == None: 95 | deleteAfter = len(clean) 96 | else: 97 | deleteAfter = min(votingfor.start(), intaking.start()) 98 | clean = clean[:deleteAfter] 99 | 100 | # Replace replacement words (concatenations) 101 | for word in range(len(replacements[0])): 102 | clean = clean.replace(replacements[0][word], replacements[1][word]) 103 | 104 | # Remove stop words 105 | for word in stoplist: 106 | clean = clean.replace(' '+word.lower() + ' ', ' ') 107 | 108 | # Write cleaned file 109 | new = open(os.path.join(locationnew,statement), 'w') 110 | new.write(clean) 111 | new.close 112 | 113 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 114 | # The Main function generates the stop list, and word replacement lists, then 115 | # loops through every file in the statements/statements.raw directory and 116 | # performs two types of cleaning: one that is less extensive (saved in 117 | # statements/statements.clean) and one that includes more preprocessing steps 118 | # (saved in statements/statements.clean.np). Finally, it creates the 119 | # term-document matrix for each type of cleaning. 'NP' denotes 'no preprocessing. 120 | # 121 | # Only the files in the statements/statements.clean folder are currently 122 | # being used in this project, these are the files with less preprocessing 123 | # at this step. More processing happens in the Jupyter Notebook code which 124 | # is the file called Data.ipynb. 125 | #-----------------------------------------------------------------------------# 126 | 127 | def main(): 128 | stoplist = [line.rstrip('\n') for line in \ 129 | open(os.path.join(datadir,"stoplist_mcdonald_comb.txt") 130 | , 'r') ] 131 | stoplistNP = [line.rstrip('\n') for line in \ 132 | open(os.path.join(datadir,"emptystop.txt"), 'r') ] 133 | 134 | replacements = getReplacementList(os.path.join(datadir,"wordlist.txt")) 135 | replacementsNP = getReplacementList(os.path.join(datadir,"wordlist.np.txt")) 136 | 137 | statementList = [ f for f in listdir(statementdir) \ 138 | if isfile(join(statementdir,f)) ] 139 | 140 | for statement in statementList: 141 | # First, the case with heavier preprocessing (keep only letters) 142 | cleanStatement(statement, statementdir, replacements, \ 143 | cleanDir, stoplist, '[^A-Za-z ]+',1) 144 | # Second, the no-preprocessing case (keep letters and numbers) 145 | cleanStatement(statement, statementdir, replacementsNP, \ 146 | cleanDirNP, stoplistNP, '[^A-Za-z0-9 ]+',0) 147 | 148 | if __name__ == "__main__": 149 | main() 150 | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------