├── .coveragerc ├── .gitignore ├── .python-version ├── .readthedocs.yml ├── .travis.yml ├── CHANGELOG.md ├── CODEOWNERS ├── CONTRIBUTING.md ├── LICENSE.md ├── Makefile ├── README.md ├── docs ├── Makefile ├── conf.py ├── contrib_folder.rst ├── core_contrib.rst ├── distributions.rst ├── foretold.rst ├── gettingstarted.rst ├── index.rst ├── inference.rst ├── jupyter_colab.rst ├── metaculus.rst ├── nbs_contrib.rst ├── notebook_style.rst ├── predictit.rst └── tips_google_sheets.rst ├── ergo ├── __init__.py ├── conditions │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── condition.py │ ├── crossentropy.py │ ├── interval.py │ ├── maxentropy.py │ ├── mean.py │ ├── mode.py │ ├── point_density.py │ ├── smoothness.py │ ├── variance.py │ └── wasserstein.py ├── contrib │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── el_paso │ │ ├── __init__.py │ │ ├── brachbach.py │ │ ├── krismoore.py │ │ ├── onlyasith.py │ │ ├── shaman.py │ │ └── texas_data.py │ ├── metac_qs_data │ │ └── metac_qs_data.csv │ ├── predictit │ │ ├── __init__.py │ │ └── fuzzy_search.py │ └── utils │ │ ├── __init__.py │ │ ├── core.py │ │ └── utils.py ├── distributions │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── base.py │ ├── constants.py │ ├── distribution.py │ ├── logistic.py │ ├── logistic_mixture.py │ ├── optimizable.py │ ├── point_density.py │ └── truncate.py ├── platforms │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── foretold.py │ ├── metaculus │ │ ├── __init__.py │ │ ├── metaculus.py │ │ └── question │ │ │ ├── __init__.py │ │ │ ├── binary.py │ │ │ ├── constants.py │ │ │ ├── continuous.py │ │ │ ├── linear.py │ │ │ ├── lineardate.py │ │ │ ├── log.py │ │ │ ├── question.py │ │ │ └── types.py │ └── predictit.py ├── ppl.py ├── scale.py ├── static.py ├── theme.py └── utils.py ├── mypy.ini ├── notebooks ├── assorted-predictions.ipynb ├── community-distributions.ipynb ├── covid-19-active.ipynb ├── covid-19-average-lockdown.ipynb ├── covid-19-inference.ipynb ├── covid-19-lockdowns.ipynb ├── covid-19-metaculus.ipynb ├── covid-19-tests-august-2020.ipynb ├── el-paso-workflow.ipynb ├── el-paso.ipynb ├── foretold-submission.ipynb ├── generative-models.ipynb ├── metac_qs_data.ipynb ├── prediction-dashboard.ipynb ├── predictit_clean_sweep.ipynb ├── quickstart.ipynb ├── rejection_sampling.ipynb ├── scrubbed │ ├── assorted-predictions.ipynb │ ├── community-distributions.ipynb │ ├── covid-19-active.ipynb │ ├── covid-19-average-lockdown.ipynb │ ├── covid-19-inference.ipynb │ ├── covid-19-lockdowns.ipynb │ ├── covid-19-metaculus.ipynb │ ├── covid-19-tests-august-2020.ipynb │ ├── el-paso-workflow.ipynb │ ├── el-paso.ipynb │ ├── foretold-submission.ipynb │ ├── generative-models.ipynb │ ├── metac_qs_data.ipynb │ ├── prediction-dashboard.ipynb │ ├── quickstart.ipynb │ ├── rejection_sampling.ipynb │ └── test-mixture-fitting.ipynb └── test-mixture-fitting.ipynb ├── poetry.lock ├── pull_request_template.md ├── pyproject.toml ├── pytest.ini ├── scripts ├── scrub_notebooks.py └── scrub_src.py ├── setup.cfg ├── setup.py └── tests ├── __init__.py ├── conftest.py ├── test_conditions.py ├── 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