├── .DS_Store ├── .gitignore ├── CHANGELOG.md ├── Documentation ├── .Rhistory ├── Ensemble_sb.md ├── ModelDocumentation │ ├── .DS_Store │ ├── Ensembles │ │ ├── EnsembleModels.Md │ │ ├── Ensemble_sb.md │ │ └── cm │ │ │ └── EnsembleModels.Md │ ├── Querysets │ │ ├── Querysets.md │ │ ├── cm │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_all_features.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_aquastat.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_baseline.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_conflict_history.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_conflict_history_long.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_faoprices.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_faoprices_stub.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_faostat.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_faostat_stub.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_imfweo.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_imfweo_stub.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_joint_broad.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_joint_narrow.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_topics.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_vdem_short.md │ │ │ └── Model_fatalities002_wdi_short.md │ │ └── pgm │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_baseline.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_broad.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_conflict_history.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_conflict_sptime_dist.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_conflict_treelag.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_conflictlong.md │ │ │ ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_escwa_drought.md │ │ │ └── Model_fatalities002_pgm_natsoc.md │ └── Surrogates │ │ ├── .DS_Store │ │ └── cm │ │ └── SurrogateModels.Md ├── Model_fatalities002_all_features.md ├── Model_fatalities002_aquastat.md ├── Model_fatalities002_baseline.md ├── Model_fatalities002_conflict_history.md ├── Model_fatalities002_conflict_history_long.md ├── Model_fatalities002_faoprices.md ├── Model_fatalities002_faostat.md ├── Model_fatalities002_imfweo.md ├── Model_fatalities002_joint_broad.md ├── Model_fatalities002_joint_narrow.md ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_baseline.md ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_broad.md ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_conflict_history.md ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_conflict_sptime_dist.md ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_conflict_treelag.md ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_conflictlong.md ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_escwa_drought.md ├── Model_fatalities002_pgm_natsoc.md ├── Model_fatalities002_topics.md ├── Model_fatalities002_vdem_short.md ├── Model_fatalities002_wdi_short.md └── Querysets.md ├── Intermediates ├── GeneticWeights.csv └── api_definition.json ├── LICENSE.md ├── MonthlyUpdates ├── Categorical_probabilities.csv ├── Categorical_probabilities_2024_10_t01.csv ├── Categorical_probabilities_2025_08_t01.csv ├── Data_exploration │ ├── .DS_Store │ ├── Download_conflict_data.ipynb │ ├── Download_pre-specified_querysets.ipynb │ ├── Download_predictions.ipynb │ ├── Download_predictor_data_fatalities001.ipynb │ ├── Download_predictor_data_fatalities002.ipynb │ ├── aggregated_predictions.csv │ └── predictions.csv ├── README.md ├── cm_futurepredictions.ipynb ├── intensity_v2.ipynb ├── pgm_futurepredictions.ipynb └── tmps │ ├── tmp_data.parquet │ ├── tmp_pars.parquet │ ├── tmp_sc_glm.parquet │ ├── tmp_sc_rf.parquet │ ├── tmp_ss_glm.parquet │ ├── tmp_ss_rf.parquet │ └── tmp_steps.parquet ├── Monthly_run_visualization_final.ipynb ├── README.md ├── SystemUpdates ├── Evaluate_system.ipynb ├── ModelDefinitions.py ├── README.md ├── cm_compute_ensemble.ipynb ├── cm_constituentmodels.ipynb └── pgm_constituentmodels.ipynb ├── Tools ├── Ensembling.py ├── FetchData.py ├── ViewsEstimators.py ├── __init__.py ├── cm_querysets.py ├── cm_surrogatemodels.py ├── genetic2.py ├── geometry │ ├── cm_geometry.parquet │ └── pgm_geometry.parquet ├── markov │ ├── models2.R │ ├── omm_ranger_hh20_fcdo_py.R │ ├── package_checker.R │ ├── tmp.parquet │ └── vmm_fatalities211210.R ├── new_markov │ ├── Readme for Markov models │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── markov.py │ ├── markov_params.py │ ├── markov_wrapper.py │ ├── omm_fatalities_flex_pywrap.R │ ├── package_checker.R │ ├── vmm_fatalities221016.R │ └── 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