├── .gitignore ├── 01_intro_to_solar_actuals_and_forecasts.ipynb ├── 02_solar_power_forecasts.ipynb ├── 03_considerations_for_actual_weather.ipynb ├── 04_spatial_variation_in_irradiance.ipynb ├── 05_ensemble_variation_in_cloud_cover.ipynb ├── 06_indicators_of_forecast_error.ipynb ├── 07_get_many_historical_forecasts.ipynb ├── 08_prep_data_for_machine_learning.ipynb ├── 09_machine_learning_models.ipynb ├── 10_operational_forecast_example.ipynb ├── 11_revisting_early_forecast.ipynb ├── 12_compare_with_persistence_ensemble.ipynb ├── LICENSE ├── README.md ├── data_files ├── full_2021_2023_dataset.pkl ├── hybrid_prob_fcast_results_20210408.pkl ├── hybrid_prob_fcast_results_2023.pkl ├── p_ac_all_act_2021.pkl ├── p_ac_all_act_2022.pkl ├── p_ac_all_act_2023.pkl ├── p_ac_all_cs_2021.pkl ├── p_ac_all_cs_2022.pkl ├── p_ac_all_cs_2023.pkl ├── p_ac_all_fcast_2021.pkl ├── p_ac_all_fcast_2022.pkl ├── p_ac_all_fcast_2023.pkl ├── p_ac_all_fcast_max_2021.pkl ├── p_ac_all_fcast_max_2022.pkl ├── p_ac_all_fcast_max_2023.pkl ├── p_ac_all_fcast_min_2021.pkl ├── p_ac_all_fcast_min_2022.pkl ├── p_ac_all_fcast_min_2023.pkl └── w_avg_tcc_2021-2023.pkl ├── example_data ├── max_min_norm_20210408.pkl ├── nsrdb_data_dictionary_pickle_2021_60min_top_of_hour_from_30min.pickle ├── nsrdb_metadata_dictionary_pickle_2021_60min_top_of_hour_from_30min.pickle ├── p_ac_hrrr_actuals_all.pkl ├── p_ac_hrrr_coarse_all.pkl ├── p_ac_hrrr_coarse_max_all.pkl ├── p_ac_hrrr_coarse_min_all.pkl ├── power_ac_cs_all.pkl └── weighted_avg_tcc_20210408.pkl ├── images ├── custom_images.pptx ├── ens_variation_in_tcc.png ├── fleet_map.png ├── fleet_map2.png ├── forecast_diagram.png ├── hrrr_map.png ├── hrrr_max_min_cs.png ├── indicators_scatter.png ├── indicators_scatter_2yrs.png ├── indicators_timeseries.png ├── presentation_images │ ├── hrrr_map_01.png │ ├── hrrr_map_02.png │ ├── hrrr_map_03.png │ ├── hrrr_map_04.png │ ├── hrrr_map_05.png │ ├── hrrr_map_06.png │ ├── hrrr_max_min_cs_pres.png │ ├── indicators_timeseries_pres.png │ ├── sample_output_pres.png │ ├── sample_output_pres_2.png │ ├── sample_output_pres_3.png │ ├── sample_output_pres_4.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210409T06_p01.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210409T06_p02.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210409T06_p03.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210409T06_p04.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210410T06_p01.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210410T06_p02.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210410T06_p03.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210410T06_p04.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210411T06_p01.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210411T06_p02.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210411T06_p03.png │ ├── tcc_map_20210411T06_p04.png │ ├── tcc_map_20231209T06_p01.png │ ├── tcc_map_20231209T06_p02.png │ ├── tcc_map_20231209T06_p03.png │ └── tcc_map_20231209T06_p04.png ├── pvlib_powered_logo_horiz.png ├── sample_output.png ├── spatial_variation_illustration.png ├── tcc_map_20210409T06_p01.png ├── tcc_map_20210409T06_p02.png ├── tcc_map_20210409T06_p03.png ├── tcc_map_20210410T06_p01.png ├── tcc_map_20210410T06_p02.png ├── tcc_map_20210410T06_p03.png ├── 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