├── Chinese.md └── README.md /Chinese.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # INBlockchain 的开源区块链投资原则 2 | 3 | *by 李笑来, [INB (inblockchain.com)](http://inblockchain.com)* 4 | 5 | [Click here to read in English](README.md) 6 | 7 | ## 1. ICO 是什么？ 8 | 9 | ICO 是 **I**nitial **C**oin **O**ffering 的缩写，是区块链创业公司向公众募集资金的一种方式，有点类似于股票市场上的 IPO。 10 | 11 | ## 2. 区块链是什么？ 12 | 13 | 区块链指的是一种公开的，由去中心化网络共同维护的账务系统，提供开放的、不可篡改的底层数据服务。 14 | 15 | ## 3. 比特币是什么？ 16 | 17 | “比特币”这个概念，可以有多重的理解 —— 这也是为什么人们感到迷惑，或者相互之间很难达成一致理解的根本原因。 18 | 19 | 首先，比特币是世界上第一个，也是迄今为止最成功的**区块链应用**。 20 | 21 | 其次，比特币是一家**世界银行**，只不过它不属于任何权威管辖，它是由一个去中心化网络构成的。 22 | 23 | 另外，这家叫做比特币的，去中心化的世界银行，发行了一个**货币**，恰好也叫“比特币”。有些人更喜欢使用相对小心的说法，把这个货币指称为 BTC，而不是“比特币”（Bitcoin）。 24 | 25 | 最后，即便在比特币横空出世的七年后（2017），也很少有人意识到比特币（或者 BTC） 其实也可以被理解为这家叫做比特币的去中心化的世界银行的**股票**。 26 | 27 | ## 4. 什么是山寨币？ 28 | 29 | 在比特币出现之后，前后有几千种加密货币被发行。尽管它们中的绝大多数早已灭绝，但仍然有少数依然不仅活着，还活得相当不错。比如，[莱特币](https://litecoin.com/)，就是一个著名的山寨币，另外，[狗币](http://dogecoin.com/)也算是一个著名的例子。 30 | 31 | 刚开始的时候，许多人认为那些加密货币只不过是“山寨货”，根本就没有真正的价值。后来，见证了那些在他们眼里毫无价值的东西不仅长存而且还不断升值之后，人们开始使用另外一些概念，比如“竞争币”。也许这世界需要不止一家“世界银行”罢？谁知道呢？又，谁在乎呢…… 32 | 33 | 我是这么想的： 34 | 35 | > 在市场上，人们买入的价值有两种：“**真正的价值**”和“**以为的价值**”。有个事实不可否认：对于那些买入“以为的价值”的人来说，那些东西和“真正的价值”看起来是一模一样的。 36 | 37 | ## 5. 什么是 MBA 币？ 38 | 39 | MBA 是我杜撰的一个缩写，代表 **M**eaningful **B**lockchain **A**pplications (MBA)，即，有意义的区块链应用。所谓的“有意义”，是指这些区块链应用在尝试着解决比特币实际上没有解决的问题。（比特币已经解决过的，就无需再解决一遍了嘛！） 40 | 41 | 坦白说，我个人认为山寨币并没有解决任何比特币没有解决的问题。我希望（注意，不是“相信”），最终，这世界其实只需要一个世界银行。 42 | 43 | 事实上，这个世界需要更多的区块链应用。也许世界上第二个 MBA 币是 [Namecoin](https://namecoin.org/)，一个去中心化的域名服务系统。[以太坊](https://www.ethereum.org/)是另外一个成功的 MBA，使用区块链技术提供一系列的功能，包括智能合约。 44 | 45 | 迄今为止（2017 年 6 月），许多 MBA 已经运行超过 6 个月，有一些还跑得相当不错。比如，*[Sia](http://sia.tech/)*，简单讲，就是提供了一个基于区块链技术的，去中心化的类 Dropbox 服务。*[Steem](https://steemit.com/)* 是另外一个新晋选手，用区块链技术颠覆了版权领域的商业模式。 46 | 47 | ## 6. 趋势是什么？ 48 | 49 | 在过去的几年里，比特币一直在主导整个区块链世界，流通市值也是最大、占比最高的。然而，到了 2017 年 4 月份，比特币的市值主导地位已经下降至 52%，尽管它的币值与其它区块链资产一样在不断升值。 50 | 51 | 这是个重要的信号。区块链世界不再是一块儿地上长着一棵树，它已经是一整个森林了。如若果真如此，那么下面的预测大抵上应该是正确的： 52 | 53 | > 在未来，**比特币主导地位**将不断下降，甚至可能低至 5% 以下。 54 | 55 | ## 7. 过去我们都做了什么？ 56 | 57 | 我个人持有很多比特币。既然我认为比特币是这家世界银行的股份，你就很容易理解为什么我尽量不去消耗我的比特币了。 58 | 59 | 2014 年之前，我投资了[比特股](https://bitshares.org/)，[云币网](https://yunbi.com)，并且自己长期维护一个项目，[比特沙](http://bitcoinsand.com)，一个比特币银行。从 2015 年最后一个季度开始，我和我的团队开始批量投资 MBA 项目，不过，我们长期遵守一个相对比较苛刻的投资原则。我们前后投资了 *[Sia](http://sia.tech/)*, *[Steem](https://steemit.com/)*, *[Zcash](https://z.cash/)*, *[QTUM](https://qtum.org/en/)*, *[EOS](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1904415.0)* 等许多项目。通常情况下，我们会同时投资创业团队的股权以及他们所发行的区块链资产。目前，我们正在积极参与全球的 ICO 项目。 60 | 61 | ## 8. 我为什么有把我们的投资原则开源？ 62 | 63 | 投资对每个个体来说，也许是最危险的活动，因为这之中所需要的所有一切都不可能是靠基因遗传过来的。 64 | 65 | 每一次真正的创新出现的时候，一定紧随着大量的骗局。在一个金融创新出现的时候，更是如此。 66 | 67 | 投资区块链创业公司或他们所发行的区块链资产，是极其危险的，因为绝大多数人之所以被吸引，是因为那传闻中的极大回报，而不是因为他们真正理解那些区块链应用所能够创造的价值。 68 | 69 | 我们希望能通过开源我们的投资原则保护我们自己。即便是往好了说，这个利他行为也只不过是出于私心：骗局越少，我们越安全。 70 | 71 | ## 9. 原则 72 | 73 | 有时候，阐述原则远不如问一些简单却又准确的问题来得容易。通过不断挣扎着为那些恰当的问题寻找绝对的答案，我们就自然而然地遵守了那些原则。以下是一些我们在决定是否投资之前反复深入向自己提问的问题： 74 | 75 | > - 这世界真的需要这东西吗？ 76 | > - 它解决了什么原本没有被解决的问题？ 77 | > - 去中心化在这件事儿上真的必要吗？ 78 | > - 它真的必须账务公开吗？ 79 | > - 账务公开的存在真的会提高它的效率吗？ 80 | > - 它在多大程度上更接近一个 **[DAC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v26zjoNd-Cs)** (Decentralized autonomous corporation， 去中心化自治公司)？ 81 | > - 如果我们决定投资，那么我们应该用我们资金的多大比例去投资？ 82 | 83 | 就这些了。最简单的问题需要最艰难的思考才能找到更准确更实在的答案。 84 | 85 | ## 10. 两个类比 86 | 87 | 看看镜子里罢，那里的每一样东西都和外面的一模一样，却可能是反过来的，不仅仅是各个物件都反过来了，连顺序都可能是反过来的。投资这事儿貌似就是发生在镜子里，在这个领域里，无论什么都看起来那么熟悉，那么简单，但，那些天真的投资者并不明白他们实际上在镜子里，他们不知道他们的所见所闻和他们过往在外面的完全不一样，机会看起来很危险，诱饵闻起来香喷喷。 88 | 89 | 另外一个好类比是驾驶。如果你是个中国人，到日本开车会很不习惯，因为他们开的是右舵车，你一会儿就迷糊了，因为你之前只习惯开左舵车。更糟糕的是，那可是开车啊，速度很快啊，一不小心就把自己弄死了…… 所以啊，开车时一定要**注意安全！** 90 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /README.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # INBlockchain ICO Investing Principles 2 | 3 | *by Li Xiaolai, founder of [INB (inblockchain.com)](http://inblockchain.com)* 4 | 5 | [点击这里查看中文版](Chinese.md) 6 | 7 | 8 | ## 1. What is an ICO? 9 | 10 | **ICO** (**I**nitial **C**oin **O**ffering) is a means for blockchain startups to raise capital from the public that is somewhat equivalent to an IPO on the stock markets. 11 | 12 | ## 2. What is a blockchain? 13 | 14 | **Blockchain** refers to a **public ledger system** maintained by a decentralized network that serves as an open and immutable database. 15 | 16 | ## 3. What is Bitcoin? 17 | 18 | The term "**Bitcoin**" can be understood in several different ways, which is why people always get confused and often disagree with each other when it comes to discussion of Bitcoin-related issues. 19 | 20 | First of all, Bitcoin is the first, most successful **blockchain application**. 21 | 22 | Moreover, Bitcoin is a **world bank** that is not run by any authority, but instead by a decentralized network. 23 | 24 | In addition, this decentralized world bank, Bitcoin, issued a **currency** that happens to have the exact same name, Bitcoin. Some are more meticulous so as to refer the currency to BTC, rather than Bitcoin. 25 | 26 | Even seven years after the birth of Bitcoin (2017), few people have realized that BTC could also be thought of as the **stock** of the decentralized world bank, Bitcoin. 27 | 28 | ## 4. What is an altcoin? 29 | 30 | Since the birth of Bitcoin, thousands of other cryptocurrencies have been issued. Though most of them are already extinct, some of them are still alive, and some even prosperous. *[Litecoin](https://litecoin.com/)*, for example, is the most famous example of an altcoin, and *[Dogecoin](http://dogecoin.com/)* is another. 31 | 32 | At first, many people thought of these cryptocurrencies as "**copycats**", with no intrinsic value at all. Later on, after witnessing that what they thought to have no value persisted or even flourished, they started using another term, "**altcoin**". Perhaps the world needs more than one world bank, who knows? And... who cares. 33 | 34 | Here is what I think: 35 | 36 | > In the markets, people are buying two kinds of value: **the intrinsic** and **the superficial**. An undeniable fact is: for those who are buying the superficial, it looks exactly the same as the intrinsic. 37 | 38 | ## 5. What are MBAcoins? 39 | 40 | By **MBAcoins**, I mean coins issued by **M**eaningful **B**lockchain **A**pplications (MBA). By **Meaningful**, I mean the applications are solving real problems, not problems that have already been solved by Bitcoin. 41 | 42 | Honestly, I don't think altcoins have solved any problem that bitcoin didn't. And I hope (not believe), that at the end of the day, one world bank would be enough. 43 | 44 | The truth is, the world needs more than one blockchain application. Perhaps the second MBAcoin is [Namecoin](https://namecoin.org/), a blockchain application trying to offer a decentralized domain service. [Ethereum](https://www.ethereum.org/) is another successful MBAcoin that is built upon blockchain technology to offer new functions including smart contracts. 45 | 46 | At the time of publishing (June, 2017), many MBAs have been running for more than 6 months and are performing pretty well. For example, [Sia](http://sia.tech/) provides a decentralized storage service just like Dropbox. [Steem](https://steemit.com/) is another young MBA that creates, discovers and distributes content with a public ledger built upon blockchain technology. 47 | 48 | ## 6. What is the trend? 49 | 50 | In the past few years, Bitcoin dominated the blockchain world with its single largest market cap. In April 2017, however, Bitcoin's dominance dropped to *52%*, although its price had been surging along with other blockchain assets. 51 | 52 | This is **an important signal** that the blockchain world is transforming into a forest, not a piece of land with a single tree anymore. If this is the case, then this prediction might well be true: 53 | 54 | > In the future, **Bitcoin dominance** will continuously drop, and even drop to less than 5%... 55 | 56 | ## 7. What have we done in the past? 57 | 58 | I'm a large bitcoin holder. Since I think of BTC as the stock of a world bank, it's quite natural for me to spend as little BTC as possible. 59 | 60 | Before 2014, we invested in [Bitshares](https://bitshares.org/), and [yunbi.com](https://yunbi.com) and I have been personally maintaining [bitcoinsand.com](http://bitcoinsand.com), a bitcoin bank, for years. Since the last quarter of 2015, my team and I started to invest in MBAs in earnest, but with a rigorous set of principles. We have invested in *[Sia](http://sia.tech/)*, *[Steem](https://steemit.com/)*, *[Zcash](https://z.cash/)*, *[QTUM](https://qtum.org/en/)*, *[EOS](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1904415.0)* and numerous others. Often, we invest both in startup equity and also in the blockchain assets the startups issue. We are actively participating ICOs around the world. 61 | 62 | ## 8. Why open-source my investing principles? 63 | 64 | Investment is by far the most risky activity, because every skill that it requires cannot be genetically inherited. 65 | 66 | The birth of every true innovation is followed by many copycats and frauds. This is especially true when the innovation comes with inherent financial functionality. 67 | 68 | Investing in blockchain startups and their assets is extremely risky in that people are often attracted by the tremendous profits they have heard about, rather than by any thorough understanding of the value that the application creates. 69 | 70 | By publicizing our investing principles, we are trying protect ourselves. Ideally, this altruism serves selfish motives: the less fraud happens, the safer we are. 71 | 72 | ## 9. Principles 73 | 74 | Sometimes asking questions is much more effective than describing principles: by struggling to get an absolute answer to appropriate questions, principles are naturally adhered to. Here are major questions we have asked ourselves again and again before we decide to invest any blockchain startup or blockchain asset: 75 | 76 | > - Is this truly needed by the world? 77 | > - What otherwise unsolvable problem does it solve completely? 78 | > - Is decentralization truly needed? 79 | > - Is an open ledger truly necessary? 80 | > - Can an open ledger truly boost the efficiency of the business model? 81 | > - To what extent is it a **[DAC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v26zjoNd-Cs)** (Decentralized autonomous corporation)? 82 | > - If we decide to invest, what percentage of our fund should we use exactly? 83 | 84 | That's all; the simplest questions tend to need the toughest thinking to get to an accurate and concrete answer. 85 | 86 | ## 10. Two Analogies 87 | 88 | When one looks into the mirror, every thing looks exactly same, but in fact everything is reversed, not only the objects, but also their order. Investment might well be thought of as happening in the "mirror”: every detail in the mirror looks familiar and simple, but naive investors don't know they are in the mirror world—they don't know what they see in the mirror doesn't operate the way it does in the outside world. More often than not, opportunities look like danger, and bait smells like cheese. 89 | 90 | Another good analogy is to driving a car. If you are an Australian, and trying to drive in the United States, you will get uncomfortable and often confused, because you are accustomed to driving on the left. You might even get yourself killed if you don’t prepare yourself for the new rules. So, **be careful** driving on the other side! 91 | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------