├── README.md ├── The-Self-Cultivation-of-Leeks-cn.md ├── The-Self-Cultivation-of-Leeks-en.md └── covers ├── green1.jpg ├── green2.jpg ├── green3.jpg ├── green4.jpg ├── red1.jpg ├── red2.jpg ├── red3.jpg └── red4.jpg /README.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # 韭菜的自我修养 / The self-cultivation of leeks 2 | 3 | * [中文版](The-Self-Cultivation-of-Leeks-cn.md) by [@xiaolai](https://github.com/xiaolai) 4 | * [English Version](The-Self-Cultivation-of-Leeks-en.md) translated by John Gordon ([@yjohny](https://github.com/yjohny)) 5 | 6 | ----- 7 | 8 | 2018 年 7 月底的时候，我腾出了两三天时间把自己锁在屋子里，写了将近四万字的小册子，取名为《韭菜的自我修养》。 9 | 10 | 因为长期的习惯，我拒绝使用自己定义不清楚的词汇 —— “韭菜”就是这样一个词汇。长期以来，我搞不清楚人们使用“韭菜”这个词汇的时候他们究竟想要表达的意思是什么…… 也没心思去搞清楚这个，于是，**在我之前的生活中，我从来不使用这个词汇。** 11 | 12 | 基于各种机缘巧合，我不得不认真思考人们所说的“韭菜”究竟是什么？当我把这个概念应该有的内涵外延逐一拆解进行研究之后发现，在交易市场里，这是个被人们从头到尾都在误用的概念！也要感谢那些让我不得不研究这个概念的人们，没有他们，我可能永远都不会花时间花心思去考虑这个事实上值得考虑的问题。 13 | 14 | 写这个小册子的时候，正是熊市寒冬，虽然北京大自然的气候是酷暑。我个人在区块链世界里前后经历了许多次大大小小的牛熊交替，人来人往见得相对稍微多一点…… 偶尔会有慨叹，于是会拿出来昆曲《桃花扇·余韵 —— 离亭宴带歇指煞》听听： 15 | 16 | > …… 17 | > 眼看他起朱楼， 18 | > 眼看他宴宾客， 19 | > 眼看他楼塌了。 20 | 21 | 仅仅几个月之前，人们还在因为兴奋而彻夜不眠，因为他人的行动而自己寝食难安，刺激和焦虑掺杂在一起…… 开口闭口改变世界，不，是“颠覆整个世界”，张嘴就说信念，出手就是几千万几个亿 —— 好像只不过是眨了眨眼，绝大多数人的资产缩水了 3/4 以上。于是，和过往的所有循环一模一样，在这样的时候，人们不再讨论理想，不再口呼信念，只是一如既往地焦虑，哪怕是无事可做去度假，也一样，没有任何开怀的意味，而后聚会谈论的，往往是星座运程之类的怪力乱神。 22 | 23 | 有些人还在交易，但他们中的大部分转向了可以进行杠杆交易的地方，开始了彻头彻尾的赌博，十倍杠杆，甚至一百倍杠杆…… 偶尔在某个群里放话说，“人生能有几回搏？” 当然，最终群里最多的消息还是一样的：爆仓爆仓再爆仓。 24 | 25 | 他们怎么了？你会跟他们一样吗？**你是否害怕自己变得和他们一样？** 抑或，你是否怀疑自己从来就是他们中的一员？ 26 | 27 | 在这小册子里，你会看到史上最为精准的“韭菜”定义，你会有办法衡量自己到底是不是“韭菜”，你到底有没有办法摆脱所谓的“韭菜宿命”，进而，因为你对这个别人都用错的概念进行了深入的思考，你甚至可能对整个人生都有新的感悟 —— 因为整个人生就是从错误开始的，最终只有少数人过对了，过好了…… 不是吗？ 28 | 29 | 我尽力了。 30 | 31 | 希望这个小册子对你有用 —— **事实上，它应该对任何人都有用，而最终是否真的有用，其实靠读者自己。** 32 | 33 | ----- 34 | 35 | * [点击这里查看正文（中文版）](The-Self-Cultivation-of-Leeks-cn.md) 36 | 37 | * [点击这里查看正文（英文版）](The-Self-Cultivation-of-Leeks-en.md) 38 | 39 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /The-Self-Cultivation-of-Leeks-cn.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # 韭菜的自我修养 2 | 3 | 李笑来 2018 4 | 5 | > https://github.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks 6 | 7 | ## 目录 8 | 9 | 10 | * [前言](#前言) 11 | * [1. 他们所说的“韭菜”究竟是谁……](#1-他们所说的韭菜究竟是谁) 12 | * [2. “韭菜”的宿命从那一刻开始……](#2-韭菜的宿命从那一刻开始) 13 | * [3. 亡羊补牢的“韭菜”才有前途……](#3-亡羊补牢的韭菜才有前途) 14 | * [4. 交易者们最应该掌握的能力……](#4-交易者们最应该掌握的能力) 15 | * [5. 摆脱“韭菜”宿命的一个观念……](#5-摆脱韭菜宿命的一个观念) 16 | * [6. “韭菜”缺乏礼貌的根本原因……](#6-韭菜缺乏礼貌的根本原因) 17 | * [7. 谁说“韭菜”不在乎寻找价值……](#7-谁说韭菜不在乎寻找价值) 18 | * [8. “韭菜”不缺耐心缺的是实力……](#8-韭菜不缺耐心缺的是实力) 19 | * [9. 喜欢冒险的最终都是“韭菜”……](#9-喜欢冒险的最终都是韭菜) 20 | * [10. 更可怕的是不计成本地冒险……](#10-更可怕的是不计成本地冒险) 21 | * [11. 止损线究竟如何制定才合理……](#11-止损线究竟如何制定才合理) 22 | * [12. 频次才是决定一切的根本因素……](#12-频次才是决定一切的根本因素) 23 | * [13. 到底最后是谁在割谁的韭菜呢……](#13-到底最后是谁在割谁的韭菜呢) 24 | * [14. 我要是在那里卖这里买就好了……](#14-我要是在那里卖这里买就好了) 25 | * [15. 人怎样变坏的就会怎样变傻的……](#15-人怎样变坏的就会怎样变傻的) 26 | * [16. 正确地提升收益风险比的方法……](#16-正确地提升收益风险比的方法) 27 | * [17. 其实真不是谁都能去做早期的……](#17-其实真不是谁都能去做早期的) 28 | * [18. 你要学的真不是项目分析能力……](#18-你要学的真不是项目分析能力) 29 | * [19. 韭菜没有生活甚至没有性生活……](#19-韭菜没有生活甚至没有性生活) 30 | * [20. 孤独是成功交易者最宝贵品质……](#20-孤独是成功交易者最宝贵品质) 31 | * [21. 生活之外还必须有工作和学习……](#21-生活之外还必须有工作和学习) 32 | * [22. 认识周期识别周期和把握周期……](#22-认识周期识别周期和把握周期) 33 | * [结语](#结语) 34 | * [附录](#附录) 35 | * [1. 李笑来从来都不是比特币“首富”……](#1-李笑来从来都不是比特币首富) 36 | * [2. INBlockchain 的开源区块链投资原则](#2-inblockchain-的开源区块链投资原则) 37 | * [1. 区块链是什么？](#1-区块链是什么) 38 | * [2. 比特币是什么？](#2-比特币是什么) 39 | * [3. 什么是山寨币？](#3-什么是山寨币) 40 | * [4. 什么是 MBA 币？](#4-什么是-mba-币) 41 | * [5. 趋势是什么？](#5-趋势是什么) 42 | * [6. 过去我们都做了什么？](#6-过去我们都做了什么) 43 | * [7. 我为什么要把我们的投资原则开源？](#7-我为什么要把我们的投资原则开源) 44 | * [8. 原则](#8-原则) 45 | 46 | ----- 47 | 48 | ### 前言 49 | 50 | 这个小册子，最终取名为《**韭菜**的自我修养》，实在出于迫不得已。“韭菜”这个词，我原本是根本不会使用的。但，在书名里用了，为什么？ 51 | 52 | 之前有一个我和别人的私下谈话被偷着录音，并被流传出去。录音里跟我对话的人多次提到“韭菜”如何如何，但是我却压根儿没有说过“韭菜”，更没有所谓的“割韭菜” 。 53 | 54 | 可结果是网上疯传的相当一部分文章都使用了耸人听闻的标题，变成了李笑来“割韭菜”，因为写那些文章的很多人压根儿就没有真正听完录音，可能只是凭网上流传的所谓文字版就全盘曲解我谈话的内容，或者把别人说的话安在我身上。在这些文字的描述下，李笑来简直成了“全民公敌” —— 而所谓“李笑来的所作所为”按照某些文章的说法，已然是“印证了长期以来外界对区块链的最黑暗的猜测” —— 然而，这些都不是真相。真相是什么？ 55 | 56 | **真相是，原本李笑来从来不用“韭菜”这个词。**过往十多年里，经常阅读我的文字的人、听我演讲的人，买我书籍和专栏的人，都知道我有个习惯： 57 | 58 | > 我会不断厘清自己的**概念**。 59 | 60 | 李笑来决不使用自己认为“没必要存在的概念” —— 在此之前，“韭菜”就是这样的一个概念。什么是**韭菜**？难道赚了钱的都是“黑庄”，赔了钱的都是“韭菜”？若是这样的理解，那么这个概念真是太乱了。难道新手就一定是“韭菜”？新手赚不到钱的概率比较高，不过，既然是指代同一个群体，用俩概念的意义除了好玩之外还有什么呢？……那“韭菜”的定义究竟是什么？ 61 | 62 | 在不清楚一个概念的定义究竟是什么之前，我是不会把那个概念放在脑子里的。当然更不会使用。所以，在那个所谓被曝光的录音里，长达五十多分钟的时间里，我一次都没有提到过“韭菜”，更别提“割韭菜”这三个字了。 63 | 64 | 想来想去，互联网本身对李笑来个人也没有什么恶意，它肯定不是故意“不辨真伪不论善恶全文记录很难正本清源”的，它就是那样的一个东西，不偏不倚，这跟我们现在正在着迷的概念“区块链”一样，也跟我这一生着迷的概念“时间”一样。 65 | 66 | 我自己能做什么呢？我想来想去，我能写这么个小册子，把我所知道的认知、我所知道的**真相**写出来；并且，主动使用这个恶意标题 —— 让更有价值的思考，更有价值的观察、更有价值的真相传播得更多…… 67 | 68 | 对于喜欢这个内容的读者，我有一个请求： 69 | 70 | > **如果您觉得这个小册子里李笑来的所思所想对您有帮助，那么请您四处转发、转载。** 71 | 72 | **注意**：不仅仅是自己看，自己发，也要“四处”转发转载；并且，一定要使用《韭菜的自我修养》这个标题！感谢！ 73 | 74 | 我想过几个原本应该的名字： 75 | 76 | > - 韭菜防割指南 77 | > - 韭菜与镰刀 78 | > - 小韭菜如何成长 79 | > - 新韭菜必知手册 80 | > - 韭菜也可以佛系 81 | > - …… 82 | 83 | 但，到最后，发现，还是带着“韭菜”这个字眼的“自黑标题”最可能自带流量…… 84 | 85 | 另外，我不会在以下的内容中避讳使用“傻屄”这个词汇的，见谅！ 86 | 87 | **警告** 88 | 89 | > 如果您没有“**只字不差地完整阅读能力**”的话，我建议您不要读下去了…… 因为以下的内容，看起来简单明了，但，对于那些“习惯性忽略大面积文字”，且“习惯性自由组织局部内容”的**阅读障碍患者**来说，太容易产生诡异的歧义了。 90 | 91 | ----- 92 | 93 | ### 1. 他们所说的“韭菜”究竟是谁…… 94 | 95 | 你到底是不是一根韭菜呢？还真的不好说。因为“韭菜”的准确定义究竟是什么，很少有人能够说清楚。然而，从人们经常的造句，能看出“韭菜”一般指交易市场里的**势单力薄的散户**。比如，“我是一根新韭菜”，或者，“他们都是老韭菜”。与“韭菜”相对的，是“庄”，一般指交易市场里**财大气粗的大户**。 96 | 97 | 交易市场里，有人赚钱，有人赔钱…… 不过，一般来说，人们的印象里，“韭菜”在大多数情况下是赔钱的，而“庄”貌似肯定是赚钱的，因为他们“应该有”很多不为人知的“割韭菜”手法…… 98 | 99 | 词语之间常常是有固定搭配的，有些搭配存在，就说明人们普遍能够理解那种搭配，现实里也确实存在，比如，“好人”之前，就可以有“坚强的”和“脆弱的”；而另外一些搭配是几乎不存在的，因为在人们的理解之中，那种搭配现实里就根本不存在，比如，“坏蛋”之前的形容词很难是“善良的”。 100 | 101 | 与“韭菜”想搭配的词，是“割”或者“被割”。“割”这个动作理论上应该是“韭菜”的对立面（所谓的“庄”）发出的；而“韭菜”则是经常“被割”…… 你几乎看不到有人用这样的句子：“**我这个韭菜把庄给割了！**” —— 若是有人真的这么说，那几乎肯定是吹牛罢。 102 | 103 | 随着时间的推移，有人只不过是从一根“新韭菜”变成了“老韭菜” —— 即，依然不赚钱，依然“在被割”……而另外一些人，虽然曾经是“新韭菜”，但，后来再也不是“韭菜”了，偶尔也说“我也是一根老韭菜”，那只不过是戏谑而已，或者是为了“亲民地谦虚一下”…… 为什么呢？在人们的普遍心理之中，即便不是所谓的“庄”，只要真的赚到钱了，那就不再是“真正的韭菜”。 104 | 105 | 于是，我们可以从人们的常用语境里得出基本上还算准确的定义： 106 | 107 | > 所谓的“韭菜”，指的是在交易市场中没赚到钱甚至赔钱的势单力薄的**散户**。 108 | 109 | 这么看来，作为一根“韭菜”，想要成为“非韭菜”（不一定是所谓的“大户”，或者，所谓的“庄”），任务很简单啊： 110 | 111 | > 赚到钱…… 112 | 113 | 只要赚到钱了，你就可以貌似谦虚地讲话了： 114 | 115 | > …… 其实我也只不过是一根老韭菜而已啦！ 116 | 117 | 这么说话的时候，你是很善良的，你是很体贴的，你很懂得照顾他人的感受 —— 那些没赚到钱的人，见到你这种已经赚到钱的人，如果没有你这种“虚伪”来安抚他们那脆弱的心灵的话，心理会更崩溃的。从另外一个角度，你不仅善良体贴，你也特别擅长保护自己，因为你若是没有这一点“虚伪”的话，真的会有很多人恨你，甚至想要干掉你 —— 就好像长期以来李笑来所面对的那样。 118 | 119 | 虽然“韭菜”的这个定义，其实还不是很令人满意地准确，但，让我们先凑合着用一段时间罢。 120 | 121 | 另外，补充一个所谓“韭菜”的常见特征： 122 | 123 | > 他们严重缺乏基本的阅读能力。他们是那种买一辈子东西都不读产品说明书的人，他们是那种无论拿到什么，都要问别人怎么用的人…… 特别常见吧？ 124 | 125 | ----- 126 | 127 | ### 2. “韭菜”的宿命从那一刻开始…… 128 | 129 | “韭菜”之所以是“韭菜”，绝大多数情况下只不过源自一个相同的原因： 130 | 131 | > 他们一进场就开始“买买买”！ 132 | 133 | 2011 年 3 月初，我在 Twitter 上第一次见到 Bitcoin 这个词之后，几乎天天被它吓倒…… 第一次看新闻标题的时候，说它在二月份刚刚超过一美元！结果那才几天啊，就已经一块五了…… 等我四月底把账号弄好开始动手的时候，已经四块多了…… 然后开始买买买，等我买完第一批 2100 个的时候，均价竟然是 6 美元…… 还在涨！然后，到了六月初，最高涨到 32 美元！这才捂到手里多久啊！才一个月多一点，收益竟然有 5 倍还多！ 134 | 135 | 嗯，就这样，我成了一颗人们口中常常提到的“韭菜” —— 为什么呢？接下来的时间里，二十多个月之后，那些“高位接盘”的“韭菜们”，包括我，才“解套”…… 中间那么久的时间里，一路阴跌，比特币价格最低甚至突破了一美元，对于那些最高价买入比特币的“韭菜们”来说，资产一度缩水 97%！ 136 | 137 | 嗯！我是个散户，我一进场就买买买，而后我资产一直在缩水，我就是一根“韭菜”。 138 | 139 | 交易市场里有很多特别气人的定律，比如： 140 | 141 | > 一旦你需要用钱的时候，市场就会大跌！ 142 | 143 | 看起来没有逻辑支持，所以你可以暂时不信，但你一定会体会到这个定律的魔力。 144 | 145 | 对所有新手来说，这个定律几乎永恒不变： 146 | 147 | > * 你一买，它就开始跌； 148 | > * 你一卖，它就开始涨…… 149 | 150 | 简直气死人了！ 151 | 152 | 为什么会出现这种“吊诡”的情况呢？因为，每一次行情结束的根本原因是“入场资金枯竭”。换言之，当连街边卖茶叶蛋的大妈都在讨论股票的时候，那么股市的“入场资金”已经到了枯竭边缘…… 你想啊！“连你这个八杆子打不着的人都知道了，要冲进来赚钱的时候”，那交易市场的行情是不是到头了？ 153 | 154 | 所以，2011 年 5 月，当李笑来这个八杆子打不到的外行都通过新闻知道了比特币并且开始不断买入的时候，那一波比特币行情就已经到头了。到！头！了！所以，仅仅一个月之后，就进入了漫长的熊市。 155 | 156 | 所以，对新手来说，有两句话很重要。第一句是永远正确的陈述，第二句是所有老手希望自己当年被人教育过的建议（要是当年有人这么教导我就好了！）： 157 | 158 | > * 连你都开始进场的时候，牛市就要结束了…… 159 | > * 你就应该干看着，啥都不买…… **到了熊市，等到大家都骂娘的时候，再开始买买买！** 160 | 161 | 其实，一上来就错了，并不是很罕见的事情，恰恰相反，是非常普遍的现象！你想想吧，连我们的人生都非常不严肃…… 崔健就在歌里戏谑过这件事儿： 162 | 163 | > （忽然来了一个机会，空空的没有目的）—— 就象当初姑娘生了我们，我们没有说愿意…… 164 | 165 | 我们的人生充满了荒谬，所以，清醒地认识到自己生活在一个荒谬的世界，对自己的健康成长有巨大的帮助和巨大的现实意义。 166 | 167 | ----- 168 | 169 | ### 3. 亡羊补牢的“韭菜”才有前途…… 170 | 171 | 我猜，你跟我一样，刚刚进场之前，没有遇到一个人像李笑来一样告诉你那两句最重要的话。于是，你和我的境遇一样，兴奋没多久就发现自己进入了好像是永远难以逆转的窘境。 172 | 173 | **交易，本来是人类社会中最本质、最普遍的行为。**可惜，也不知道为什么，几乎全球所有的普及教育、高等教育都默认不把它当作必修课程 —— 于是，一代又一代的人，命中注定一样，前仆后继地“亡羊补牢”。 174 | 175 | 可惜，很多“韭菜”只有一只羊，所以，从来都没有过“羊牢”，所以，他们的羊死了就死了，“补牢”这事儿对他们来说是完全不存在的机会…… 176 | 177 | 于是，你跟我一样，一进场就犯了个大错，不知道牛市即将结束，激动地“买买买”，全然不顾那是被牛市打了催肥激素的价格，看着眼前的“利润”甚至觉得自己的智商都在飞涨…… 然后，然后就被“套牢”了…… 怎么办？ 178 | 179 | 环顾一下四周，你就明白了。还有个比“一进场就买买买”更可怕的错误！是什么呢？是： 180 | 181 | > 一进场就把自己的钱花光了！ 182 | 183 | 当然，还有更可怕的，就是“一进场就连借来的钱都花光了！” 人越穷，赚钱的欲望就越强烈，所以常常不惜铤而走险。很多新手就这样给自己挖好了陷阱，栓好了上吊绳，他们不仅把自己仅有的一点钱在交易市场里花光，还要“加上杠杆”，借钱“投资”…… 结果呢？很惨。 184 | 185 | 如果你运气足够好，那么你就会像我一样有翻身机会： 186 | 187 | > 虽然被套住了，但依然有钱可以慢慢花，于是，在其后漫长的熊市里，依然有机会降低成本建仓…… 188 | 189 | 所以，“亡羊补牢”是有前提的： 190 | 191 | > * 你有的不仅仅是亡掉的那一只羊； 192 | > * 除了它之外你最好还有很多只羊； 193 | > * 因为你有很多只羊，所以你过去就建过“羊牢”； 194 | > * 所以，你虽然“亡羊”了，但还有机会去“补牢”； 195 | > * 所以，一旦“牢”补好了，你可以管更多只羊； 196 | > * 所以，最初的时候，亡掉一两只羊，最终显得无所谓…… 197 | 198 | 所以，“亡羊补牢”的“韭菜”最应该做的是什么呢？很简单啊： 199 | 200 | > * 还有钱的话，就慢慢补仓…… 201 | > * 钱不够的话，就在场外拼命赚钱…… 202 | 203 | ----- 204 | 205 | ### 4. 交易者们最应该掌握的能力…… 206 | 207 | 在我看来，这世界上很难有哪一个地方比交易市场一样更需要学习能力了。几乎一切交易的成功，最终都可以溯源到学习能力上来。几乎所有的牛屄交易者，都是学习和研究的高手。 208 | 209 | 人们常常用短期和长期来区分“投机”和“投资”，这是很肤浅的。投机也可以很长期，正如投资也可以很短期一样。人们对投机抱有贬义，对投资抱有褒义，也是普遍错误而又肤浅的想法。你说“失败的投资”和“成功的投机”，哪一个更好呢？所以，使用“长期”或者“短期”来定义的概念，无论是“投机”还是“投资”，都不是我会使用的。 210 | 211 | 我个人是这样区分投机者和投资者的： 212 | 213 | > **投机者拒绝学习，投资者善于学习。** 214 | 215 | 交易之前，认真研究，深入学习、交易过后，无论输赢，都要总结归纳，修正自己的观念和思考以便完善下一次的决策 —— 这么做的人，在我眼里都是投资者，哪怕他们是“快进快出”。 216 | 217 | “韭菜”是什么样的呢？他们不学习，他们不研究，他们鼠目寸光，他们怨天尤人…… 这样的人，在我眼里无论有钱与否，无论智商高低，都是“失败的投机者”，是千真万确的傻屄。 218 | 219 | 从 2011 年开始到现在，一转眼 7 年过去，我见过无数为了比特币也好区块链也好而疯狂的人，可是，究竟有几个人真正读过比特币的白皮书呢？又有几个不仅读过，还读过很多很多遍，并且会时不时拿出来重新看一遍的呢？大多数人在比特币上没赚到什么钱，真的不怪比特币，只能怪他们自己，为什么呢？他们甚至实际上并不知道自己手中正在买卖的究竟是什么…… 220 | 221 | 如果你发现自己必须向别人咨询、或者必须“打探小道消息”才能决定交易的方向，那么说明你竟然真的就是根所谓的“韭菜” —— 因为你全然不懂自己正在做的交易…… 如果这个时候，你竟然不自己去学习，自己去研究，不想着做出属于自己的结论，那么，你甚至就是一根“没有修养的韭菜”。 222 | 223 | 亡羊补牢，这个词中的“牢”，其实最终就是你的“见解库”、“知识库”、“决策机器”。 224 | 225 | “在牛市尾巴进场”，是绝大多数人的宿命，没啥可抱怨的，又因为是“既定事实”，所以也没有什么办法去逆转。然而，因为无知进场，又因为无知退场，这是最凄惨的结局。虽然是因为无知进场，但正是因为已经经历了无知的下场，所以玩命地把自己变成一个有知者 —— 这才是明智的选择，不仅明智，这才是强者的选择。 226 | 227 | **做一个强者。** 是所有优秀交易者的信仰。也应该是一个“新手”，或者“新韭菜”必须树立的观念，只有这样，将来才不会“依然是一根韭菜”…… 228 | 229 | 熊市里除了在场外赚钱补仓之外，还能干什么？学习啊！起码要开始锻炼学习的能力。 230 | 231 | 不知道学什么？接着读下去，认真读，一个字也不要漏掉。反复读，至少你能学会一些你原本不可能用的思考方式和思考结果。于是，你从此改变了自己的思考方式…… 思考带来决策，决策带来行动，行动改变命运 —— 这是大实话。 232 | 233 | ----- 234 | 235 | ### 5. 摆脱“韭菜”宿命的一个观念…… 236 | 237 | 每个人都要对自己的遭遇做出一个清楚的解释 —— 不是对别人解释，而是对自己解释。这就是为什么人们常常要“讨个说法”。如果，对自己的遭遇无法解释得清楚，就会很难受很难受。 238 | 239 | 在医院里，每个得了绝症的患者，都要经历一个痛苦的“自我解释”时期。“为什么生这个病的偏偏是我？！” 这是一个无比痛苦且无比艰难的自问。虽然可能明明是个概率问题，但，“为什么偏偏是我？！” 折射的是每个不幸者的不甘。 240 | 241 | 读中学的时候，你也可能观察到这样的现象。班里有些面貌丑陋的女生，对“自己从未收到过情书”的解释是这样的：“我可不是那样的人！不像那些狐狸精……” 虽然旁观者清，但，她们自己却对自己的解释深信不疑。然而，这样的解释真的除了让自己舒服之外一点副作用都没有吗？事实上，副作用很多很多，比如，除了让自己不真实之外，甚至可能为了让这样扭曲的解释更站得住脚，他们会不惜用各种手段去折磨、诬陷那些她们口中的“狐狸精”，虽然那些“狐狸精”除了长得更漂亮之外一点错都没有…… 当然，更惨的，并且她们自己可能永远不知道的是，正因为她们实际上的扭曲，所以，她们将来找到的另外一半，也必然是扭曲的。 242 | 243 | “韭菜”们最大的共识是什么呢？ 244 | 245 | 据我观察，所有的韭菜都认同一个实际上错误的观点： 246 | 247 | > 所谓的交易，是一种“**零和游戏**”。 248 | 249 | 也就是说，他们相信自己赚到的钱，是别人赔掉的钱；或者反过来说，他们自己赔掉的钱，一定被别人赚走了同样的金额…… 250 | 251 | 这就很矛盾了。当这些“韭菜”愤怒地声讨“割韭菜的家伙们”的时候，他们本质上在气愤的是什么呢？看来，他们真正恨的，并不是他们口中的“割韭菜”；他们真正恨的，逻辑上来看，只能是“为什么割韭菜的不是我？！” 如果有机会“割韭菜”，他们一定不会手软，因为这是他们认定的“零和游戏”，所以，谁都是韭菜，谁都是一个命：要么当韭菜被割，要么割别人的韭菜…… 252 | 253 | 他们错在哪里了呢？ 254 | 255 | **他们全然忽视了交易市场里最大的一个作用力：经济周期，或者，通俗点讲，就是牛熊交替。** 256 | 257 | 在牛市里，绝大多数人都赚到钱了，少量人赔掉的金额，全然不配那么多人赚到的总数；到底哪一根韭菜被割了？在熊市里，绝大多数人都赔钱了，大量的人赔掉总金额，是少数人赚到的无数倍，谁在割韭菜？ 258 | 259 | **所以，这根本就不是“零和游戏”！** 260 | 261 | 事实上，在牛市的尾巴上，无论是谁，买到的都是打了激素催肥了的价格；在熊市尾巴上，无论是谁，买到的都是瘦骨如柴嗷嗷待哺的价格…… 262 | 263 | 公开的交易市场上，没有人能拿着枪逼你交易，每个人都是自愿的…… 可为什么自愿买的时候欢天喜地，后面就开始呼天抢地了呢？我们需要一个解释。对，我们每个人都需要给自己一个清楚的解释，用来解释自己所面对的尴尬。 264 | 265 | **你是想要一个正确的解释呢？还是想要一个让自己感觉舒服的解释呢？** 266 | 267 | 正确的解释，会引发你下一步正确的选择和行动。让自己舒服却肯定不正确的解释，除了让你短暂舒服之外，因为它不是正确的，所以，必然只能带来各种“出人意料”的副作用…… 你到底要哪一个解释？ 268 | 269 | 正确的解释很简单： 270 | 271 | > **我们买入的时机错了。** 272 | 273 | 牛市的时候，鸡犬升天，多差的标的，都有可能继续暴涨；熊市里，万马齐暗，有时好的资产反倒跌得更狠…… 274 | 275 | “**时机错了**”是最本质最合理，最有指导意义的正确解释，甚至应该是唯一的合理解释。 276 | 277 | 另外，稍稍成长了一点的你，以后就明白了：以后，绝对不要参与任何零和游戏 —— 这比赌博还浪费时间！ （要知道，在现实里，公平的赌博其实是不存在的，为了保证公平，或者说，以公平为手段，所有赌场都设计了庄家赢率……） 278 | 279 | ----- 280 | 281 | ### 6. “韭菜”缺乏礼貌的根本原因…… 282 | 283 | 因为“韭菜”们相信自己正在玩的是一个“零和游戏”，所以，他们几乎在进场的第一时间就变成了另外一个物种。你仔细观察一下，这种陈述完全没有戏谑的味道： 284 | 285 | > 空军（卖家）和多军（买家）擦肩而过，各自心里暗骂对方一声傻屄…… 286 | 287 | 为什么注定了要对骂一声“傻屄”呢？因为这是零和游戏，所以： 288 | 289 | > * 两个人必然有一个是傻屄； 290 | > * 我这么聪明，傻屄只能是你！ 291 | 292 | **一切的礼貌与修养，本质上来看都是深入思考的产物，跟说不说脏话没关系** —— 正如之前我们发现用学习与否分辨投机者和投资者更准确一样。 293 | 294 | 一个人如果思考错了，或者思考方式错了，那么就会瞬间变成真正粗鄙的家伙。参与真正的零和游戏的人，拼的是“我比对方强”，赢了爱怎样就怎样，可是“输了得认”。可是，那些把非零和游戏当作零和游戏玩的人，完全不知道自己从一开始就错了，所以，他们的下场几乎只能是这样的： 295 | 296 | > * 原本还有一半的概率可能会赢； 297 | > * 但由于理解错误所以输的概率被大幅度提高； 298 | > * 对于输赢的解释全都是错的； 299 | > * 解释错了，就会在下一步判断错； 300 | > * 于是下一步的输赢概率再一次全被自己扭曲； 301 | > * 所谓的韭菜宿命就这样被铸造了出来； 302 | > * 所以，韭菜最终都变成了充满了怨念的人 —— 自己给自己生产出来的怨念…… 303 | 304 | 真相是什么呢？ 305 | 306 | 无论在什么时候，买卖都是由双方配合完成的。买家虽然有买的意愿，如果没有卖家，他是买不到的，无论出价高低。反过来，卖家也一样，如果没有买家，他也是卖不出的，无论出价高低…… 307 | 308 | 在任何一个时间点上，交易参与者的思考、判断、需求、结论如若竟然完全一致的话，是不可能有交易出现的。**本质上来看，一切的交易，都是思考不一致的结果。**也就是说，交易参与者必须找到与自己持有不同甚至相对结论的人才能完成交易，否则，就只能是“挂单”在那里，等着结论不一致的人到来…… 309 | 310 | 所以，一旦交易完成，双方都应该感激对方才对，为什么要互骂呢？谈不上感激，也至少要感谢一下吧？所以，思考深入的人有着天然而又真诚的礼貌： 311 | 312 | > 空军（卖家）和多军（买家）擦肩而过，**互道一声珍重**…… 313 | 314 | 本来生活在一个很美好的世界之中，仅仅因为一念之差，韭菜们就生活在自己创造的一个阴暗角落之中。这也是奇观了罢！ 315 | 316 | 有一篇论文里，某心理学家得出了结论：这世界没有什么坏人，只有好人、笨蛋和病人。在我看来，很多病根本就是笨出来的。当年，读完这篇论文，一下子觉得世界“变得”更阳光了！ 317 | 318 | ----- 319 | 320 | ### 7. 谁说“韭菜”不在乎寻找价值…… 321 | 322 | 千万不要以为正在谈论“价值投资”的人是以“价值投资”作为行动与判断依据的人。若是常被表象所迷惑，你的交易成绩只能很差很差。 323 | 324 | 成功的交易者永远是极少数。极少数的他们所具备的共同特征就是，**他们不为表象所动，他们喜欢探究表象之下的实质**。 325 | 326 | 绝大多数人之所以正在讨论“价值投资”，是因为他们已然“被套住”了 —— 这才是实质。这也是为什么有那么多人喜欢讨论“价值投资”的根本原因 —— 因为我们已然明白了，绝大多数人都是在牛市尾巴上才被吸引进交易市场，一冲进来就拼命“买买买”，随之而来的大熊，每一步都能踩死一批人…… 327 | 328 | 这是很有意思的现象： 329 | 330 | > **这世上没有人不学习。** 331 | 332 | 人人都在学习！即便是笨蛋，也是在不断学习的…… 只不过，学习和学习并不一定相同。由于他们学习的方向、方法、方式都天然带着缺陷，所以，“学”到的都是没用的东西，甚至是有害的东西。 333 | 334 | “研究透价值所在之后决定是否买卖”，和“不管三七二十二先下手之后发现不对再去研究价值”当然有着天壤之别，随后的结论和结局都迥异至极。 335 | 336 | 这真是个很有意思的现象，因为**聪明和愚蠢，竟然不是被天生因素所决定，决定它们的竟然只不过是“顺序”**…… 跟下棋一样，先走什么后走什么，最终决定输赢 —— 双方的棋子数量一模一样，棋盘也是对称的，但最终就是有输赢，被什么决定？竟然只不过是顺序。当然，“顺序”有很多其它的称呼，比如“策略”什么的。 337 | 338 | 如果，你的所谓“宿命”起因在于你交易的时机错了，那么，解决这个问题的途径，肯定不是去“寻找价值”…… 每一把锁都有属于自己的钥匙，万能钥匙是绝大多数人手里根本没有的东西。就算心急也绝对不能乱投医 —— 这是常识。 339 | 340 | 你在**错误的时机**做了交易决策，那么其后最正确的对策是什么呢？ 341 | 342 | 很简单啊： 343 | 344 | > **等待下一个正确的时机**！ 345 | 346 | 太过简单的答案常常被忽略，因为正如人们总是以为大事件一定有大阴谋驱使的一样，人们不相信“赚到钱”这么大的事情，竟然会有这么简单的答案。 347 | 348 | 在**正确的时机**面前，哪怕连“价值”这个宝贝都显得弱不禁风、无能为力。所以，仔细观察一下吧：那些盲目相信价值投资的人，只能为自己的错误理解、错误决策默默地买单。 349 | 350 | 如若你之前没想到的话，也不用自卑，要是这种事情需要自卑的话，我自己早就自杀了 —— 因为我进入交易市场好几年了之后才开始正视“价值投资”的缺陷： 351 | 352 | > 虽然它是对的，但它只能解释一小部分的世界。 353 | 354 | ----- 355 | 356 | ### 8. “韭菜”不缺耐心缺的是实力…… 357 | 358 | 所谓“被割离场的韭菜”，本质的原因根本不是他们缺乏耐心。正如你之前看到的那样，哪怕是笨蛋，也天然在不断学习一样；只要是个人，在条件恰当的情况下，都有足够的耐心 —— 这是事实。 359 | 360 | 缺乏耐心，其实是表象，本质是什么？**本质是缺乏实力**。 361 | 362 | 两个人玩抛硬币对赌，每一把下注一万元；硬币是完美的硬币，两个人都不可能作弊…… 请问，最终输赢由什么决定？ 363 | 364 | 这不是“脑筋急转弯”题目，但你很可能会以为这个问题本身就有问题： 365 | 366 | > * 明明是 1:1 概率的事情，哪里有什么输赢啊！ 367 | > * 既然没有输赢，那所谓的“决定输赢”又从何谈起？！ 368 | 369 | 这就是最好的例子，能用来证明绝大多数人只能看到表象，观察不到实质。 370 | 371 | 最终几乎肯定还是有输赢的 —— 如果两个人的财力有一定的差别的话。抛硬币的结果是正面还是反面的概率虽然的确是 1:1，但概率的意思是说，虽然总体上是 1:1，但展现上肯定不是“这一次正面，下一次反面，如此循环往复”…… 极端的情况下，参与的某方如果只有一万元赌资，他只要第一次输就马上出局了。你小时候真的痴迷过玩抛硬币就知道了，在实际操作过程中，连续出现 32 次正面（或者连续 32 次背面）的情况其实也挺常见的！若是某方某方持有二三十万，另外一方仅有三五万，由于玩的是 1/2 概率输赢的东西，赌资比对方多很多的人更容易赢，不是吗？ 372 | 373 | 所以，在这种游戏里，**最终，决定输赢的不是“运气”，而是“实力”！** 374 | 375 | 几乎是同样的道理，“韭菜”最终的下场，并不是因为缺乏耐心，而是因为缺乏实力。如果进场时“那必然被套的部分”，事实上仅占他所有资产的一小部分，他会“失去耐心”吗？他会因此失去冷静吗？他会因此焦灼不堪吗？他会因此羞愤难当吗？都不会。更可能的是，他会很冷静，他会无焦虑，他会羞愧自己判断错了，但完全不可能因为羞愧而做出更不合理的行为。 376 | 377 | 于是，想要摆脱“韭菜的宿命”，只有一个办法：**提高自己的实力。** 378 | 379 | 在交易市场里，实力指的究竟是什么？有一个清楚的定义： 380 | 381 | > **长期稳定的低成本现金流。** 382 | 383 | 这种东西事实上很难得，但也不是无迹可寻。有的人竟然可以源源不断地借到钱，另外一些人靠不断募资持有这种能力，估计也有的人像我一样靠“场外赚钱能力”。而对于绝大多数普通人来说，像我一样不断地在场外赚钱可能是唯一的优势策略。 384 | 385 | 与此同时，还有另外一个重要的原则： 386 | 387 | > **控制仓位** 388 | 389 | 永远要保留**一定比例**或者起码**一定数量**的现金 —— 这就好像潜海需要一个氧气罐一样，没得商量。至于比例是多少，数量是多少，没有定理，完全靠你自己琢磨。 390 | 391 | ----- 392 | 393 | ### 9. 喜欢冒险的最终都是“韭菜”…… 394 | 395 | 冒险，在都市传说里，经常被与“勇敢”混为一谈，这种概念混淆在日常生活中可能不会造成过大的风险。然而，在交易市场里，这种混淆常常是直接**致命**的。 396 | 397 | 优秀的、成功的交易者，最终都是风险厌恶者 —— 这一点，韭菜们并不知道。正如韭菜们对自己所面临的尴尬解释有误一样，他们对成功者的解读也是无一正确。他们以为优秀者、成功者，最终都是靠冒险成功的，他们的理解线性且单一： 398 | 399 | > * 市场有风险； 400 | > * 所以，想要成功就要冒险； 401 | > * 反过来，不冒险就不可能成功…… 402 | 403 | **错了！真的完全错了！** 404 | 405 | 想要摆脱“韭菜的宿命”，你必须学会的一个观念是： 406 | 407 | > * 能不冒险绝不冒险…… 408 | > * 即便是必须冒险的时候，也要让傻瓜们冒险，自己在一旁通过观察获得经验。 409 | 410 | 获得经验的最直接方法是透过自己的实践获得。然而，在风险这件事儿上，一定要尽早学会观察他人的冒险实践，而不是通过自己的实践。 411 | 412 | 我有一位新东方同事，去牛津赛德商学院（Saïd Business School）读 MBA，回来给我讲，第一堂课上，教授一上来在黑板上就写下这么几个词： 413 | 414 | > Use others people's money!（用别人的钱！） 415 | > 416 | > > 注：这句话出自一本出版于 1914 年的一本著名书籍的书名：《Other people's money, and how the bankers use it》，作者是 Brandeis, Luois Dembitz。感谢互联网，你现在可以在 https://archive.org/details/otherpeoplesmone00bran 阅读此书。 417 | 418 | 箴言。这则是有深刻智慧的，回想一下上一节中所提到的“长期稳定的低成本现金流”罢。所以，著名商学院毕业的学生，从那一刻开始磨炼的就是“**融资能力**” —— 只不过，为了避免误解，他们多多少少都学会了一点用来保护自己的“虚伪”，从来不提这事儿而已。动物世界不就是这样吗？所有的动物都有一些为了保护自己而隐藏自己的一些诀窍。 419 | 420 | 若是我有机会开个全球知名商学院的话，我一定会把这句话刻在墙上让所有学生牢记永生： 421 | 422 | > **Watch other people taking risks!（盯着别人冒险！）** 423 | 424 | 这比“用别人的钱”更重要。为什么呢？在全球经济高速发展几十年之后的今天，“有一点钱”早已不再是难事了；又由于全球经济高速发展了几十年，机会也比过去更多、更大；所以，“用自己的钱”也能做很多事情，“用别人的钱”反倒相对危险了…… 425 | 426 | 然而，无论经济怎么发展，风险还是风险，为了获取经验，必然需要有人冒险…… 不过，冒险的一定不能是你，你干什么呢？你观察，你总结，你学习。越大的风险，越需要你这样的人 —— 冒大险的人最终实际上要感谢你，为什么呢？他们折了就折了，可是因为有了你这样的人，总结了他们的经验，不仅自己受益了，还传播了出去，他们的失败就有了新的意义…… 427 | 428 | 思考正确的结论真的很难，因为有时候“正确的结论”看起来是那么邪恶，即便是最深处闪闪发光。 429 | 430 | 还有另外一些东西，甚至不是“冒险”，因为冒险毕竟还有生还的机会。比如，借钱冲进交易市场，比如，加上杠杆，再比如，在没有专业技能的情况下去玩期货…… 这些都不是“冒险”，干脆就是“找死”。尤其是在区块链资产交易市场里，更是如此。它本身已经是个波动（风险）巨大的交易标的了，还要在这上面叠加风险，那不是找死是什么？ 431 | 432 | 然而，韭菜们是不信的，坚决不信的，即便是已经粉身碎骨，他们还是相信“要是有人肯再借我一点钱…… 哼！我一定会翻身的！” 433 | 434 | **注意** 435 | 436 | > 这一章的内容，99% 的情况下会被误解。歧义来自于这里面所说的“别人”（other people），基本上总是被那些投资或投机失败的人“主动自我对号入座” —— 他们不明白“用别人的钱”中的“用”，是指在金融领域由相关法律规定和保护之下的“**合法使用**”。同样的道理，“看别人冒险”中的“看”，显然也不是那种“恶意的看”，而是指理性地**观察与学习**。 437 | > 438 | > 把这种东西写出来，多少是有风险的，因为它在没有被全面解释清楚之前，很容易被误会成“政治不正确”（politically incorrect）…… 所以，基本上，只要说出来就一定被骂，而且还是从各个角度被骂。 439 | 440 | ----- 441 | 442 | ### 10. 更可怕的是不计成本地冒险…… 443 | 444 | 成功的交易者，跟爱因斯坦口中的“上帝”一样，是不玩骰子游戏的 —— 纯粹由概率决定的事情，他们会直接回避。 445 | 446 | 就算偶尔他们接受风险，那他们能接受的也只能是“胜率超过 50%”，或者最好“胜率远远超过 50%”的决策。 447 | 448 | 韭菜们不一样，他们喜欢冒险，但是他们甚至不知道如何计算风险 —— 是呀，风险是可以通过算术算出来的！韭菜们从来没有算过，甚至没有想到过应该计算一下。那你说他们能赢吗？若是他们竟然赢了，那岂不是没有天理了？！ 449 | 450 | 你是新手，你不是韭菜，至少你不想永远是一根韭菜，那怎么办？ 451 | 452 | 学啊！ 453 | 454 | 不想学？那还有什么别的办法吗？有 —— 退出市场，永不参与。 455 | 456 | 那还是学罢，直到把自己变成一个学霸。 457 | 458 | 有人向你借钱，100 块，然后告诉你他愿意到期还给你 110 块。这时候你的**回报风险比**是多少呢？你的风险是那个人跑了，你损失 100 元，你可能的回报是，如果他还你钱的话，你的钱比原来多了 10 块…… 于是，你的回报风险比是 0.1 : 1 = 10%，这看起来完全没啥吸引力么！ 459 | 460 | 若是对方告诉我，借 100 块钱，第二天还 150 块，哈，我是肯定不会借的，因为这种条件只可能是个急着去打麻将的赌鬼提出的…… 我没这样的朋友！玩笑归玩笑，回头看本质：实际上，在不确定对方信用的情况下，无论回报是 10% 还是 50%，抑或是 200%，风险是一样的：你最多可能损失掉的是 100 元本金；回报风险比很不一样，而这个比率给你带来的心里影响也非常不一样…… 461 | 462 | 读起来有点绕？别急，刚开始多简单的东西叠加好几层之后都会显得很复杂，也显得不那么直观。多读几遍是读任何好书的诀窍。 463 | 464 | 在上面的例子里，你的实际成本来自于那“同样的风险” —— 有可能损失 100 块 —— 给你带来的压力。你月收入竟然是六位数，那你甚至会对对方说，“算了，不用还了！” 如果你是个在大学里读书全靠父母救济的穷小子，100 块很可能是你一整天的饭钱，并且竟然是在月末，你只剩下最后 100 元的时候，那成本就是你完全不能承受的了。 465 | 466 | 所以，你看，计算风险成本要考虑很多因素，**你的实力最重要**，然后才是回报风险比 —— 你看，在哪里都一样，实力最重要。 467 | 468 | 换一个场景，在交易市场里。 469 | 470 | 你看到某个标的，X，从之前的一个价格高点 26 元回落到 20 元，然后你猜它很有可能回涨到 22 元，到时候你就可以“套现”了。于是，你动用 500 元购入，总计买到了 25 个单位。那，你的回报风险比是多少呢？算一下呗？ 471 | 472 | 分子是可能的回报。当价格真的回到了 22 元的时候，你总计可能的收益是 50 元，而你拿出来“冒险”的总金额是 500 元，所以，你的回报风险比，是 50 : 500 = 10% —— 这个比率看着如何呢？实际上不咋样罢？ 473 | 474 | 然而这个计算还需要改进。因为新手是不设止损线的，或者，准确地讲，**“韭菜”是没有“止损”这个概念的**。你不一样，你学会了，你知道应该设个止损线。所以，你给自己定了个止损线，如果价格跌倒 18 元，那么你无论如何都得卖出！ 475 | 476 | 这个时候，你的回报风险比是多少呢？分子还是 50 元，风险呢？风险是 500 - ( 25 * 18 ) = 50，于是，50 : 50，相当于 1 : 1 …… 这跟抛硬币有啥区别呢？**你为什么要跑去交易市场玩抛硬币呢？！** 477 | 478 | 而且，这跟抛硬币还是有很大区别的！因为交易是有手续费的，无论你买还是你卖，于是，若是把手续费因素考虑进来，你这次的交易无论如何都比直接抛硬币赌正反面都差！ 479 | 480 | 韭菜之所以是韭菜，甚至永远是韭菜，就是因为他们不仅冒险，还不计成本地冒险，更可悲的是，那么简单的算术，他们竟然没想过应该去算一算…… 他们也学习，但学得是“打探小道消息”那一套。 481 | 482 | ----- 483 | 484 | ### 11. 止损线究竟如何制定才合理…… 485 | 486 | 有一些韭菜也是有进步的，很快听说了高手们不仅是有“止损线”的，竟然还有“止盈线”！然后他们用最肤浅的方法去理解他们以为的“高手们”的这种行为，然后，给自己定下了自己完全没办法执行的“铁律”： 487 | 488 | > 不要太贪心！ 489 | 490 | 这看起来全然没有错误的“铁律”为什么漏洞百出呢？因为漏洞不在这个铁律，在于只要是人，就很贪，不是吗？并且，你进交易市场干嘛的？你摸摸你的心脏吧，你真的是想进来每天赚三碗牛肉面钱的吗？！ 491 | 492 | 真正有用的建议，从来都是可执行的。“不要太贪心”这个所谓“建议”的毛病在于，它几乎不可执行，想想可以，却根本做不到。偶尔做到不算数，长期做到有完全不可能。 493 | 494 | 止损线到底应该如何制定？ 495 | 496 | 有些标的的价格波动天然就比其他标的更猛烈。比特币的价格波动就比美元在外汇市场上的价格波动猛烈无数倍。早期的时候，比特币甚至出现过一小时里跌掉 80%，或者同样一小时里涨了 500% 的情况…… 497 | 498 | 你可以估算一下交易标的的“日常波动幅度”。如果，X 的日常波动幅度是 25%，那么，你的止损线，或者换个说法，你的“最大可忍受亏损” 应该比 25% 更高，比如，40%…… 因为你在考虑的是风险，尤其是价格波动剧烈的交易市场里的风险，所以，**“做更坏的打算”永远比“盲目乐观”更靠谱**。 499 | 500 | 止损线到底应该定在哪里，有很多因素在起作用。甚至，连交易者的性格都是很重要的因素之一。最要命的是，你的性格确实在此时此刻决定你的行为，但，回头仔细观察，你此时此刻的性格，更可能是过去你长期行为所决定的。 501 | 502 | 到了这里，绝大多数“韭菜”都懵了 —— 他们发现，要考虑的因素太多。他们在归结因果的时候都常常犯错，弄不清楚，更没办法理解那些“互为因果”的现象和原理了…… 于是，他们都一样，当有人给他们耐心讲解原理的时候，很快就不耐烦了（注意，不是缺乏耐心，而是缺乏脑实力），说的话都一模一样：“你就告诉我该不该买么！” （这个好玩：你不妨仔细想想，为什么他们说的不是反过来的？—— “你就告诉我该不该卖么！”） 503 | 504 | **想要摆脱韭菜宿命，那就练脑子罢。**脑子不是个好东西，练过的脑子才是好东西 —— 不仅要练过，还要正确地练，好好地练，不停地练。 505 | 506 | 韭菜们是怎么做的？他们确实学会了设置止损线，虽然已经有了“进步”，可结果上来看还不如不进步，因为他们的止损线根本就没计算过，完全是凭“韭菜直觉”来 —— 比如，在交易日常波动在 25% 的交易标的上，把止损线定在 10% 或者 20%…… 507 | 508 | 这么做的结果，是另外一个对他们来说完全“意料之外”的、很严重的副作用。由于他们把分母一厢情愿地降低了，于是，哪怕很少的收益对他们来说都是“很高的回报风险比”，于是，他们手中正在做的交易永远是“赔本的买卖”却永远不知道自己错在哪里？到最后他们能做的和那些因为无知所以迷信的人一样，因为搞不清楚自己是怎么“被割”的，能感知到的只有（其实是错误的结论）“我的钱被别人赚走了”…… 所以，天天一边骂着黑庄，一边暗自希望自己能认识个黑庄好朋友，或者私下幻想自己有一天也能成为黑庄…… 509 | 510 | 反正，设定止损线这件事儿，绝对不能一厢情愿，起码，你现在知道了，有个因素很靠谱： 511 | 512 | > 交易标的的**日常波动幅度**。 513 | 514 | ----- 515 | 516 | ### 12. 频次才是决定一切的根本因素…… 517 | 518 | 虽然，你现在好像明白了“如何设定止损线”。但，必然操之过急的你，没多久还是发现那东西完全摸不着看不见，那东西再一次然并卵。为什么呢？ 519 | 520 | 很快，你就会发现，这个所谓的“日常波动幅度”，全然决定于你究竟在观察多久的时段，或者，你用什么样的刻度去观察。你看看 K 线，按小时、按分钟、按天、按月…… 都会得到不同的结论。所以，起码还有另外一个要素去考虑，你自己究竟是以什么样的频率去交易呢？你每天都交易？还是你每时每刻都在交易？抑或是你应该选择一个季度交易一次？这不是个很容易的决定，也不是一个有标准答案的决定。 521 | 522 | 有的人时时刻刻在交易，甚至怕自己“效率低下”，靠写程序来进行“量化交易”，妄图捕捉市场上的每一个获利机会；有的人一年也不一定交易一次，有的人隔几天交易一次…… 先不管究竟是什么决定了这些人的交易频率，现在更重要的是，“交易频率”究竟会影响到哪些结果呢？ 523 | 524 | 有这么个“**屋子里的大象**” —— 即，那种显而易见却被人们全然无视的现象： 525 | 526 | > 交易频次越高，交易越是接近“零和游戏”。 527 | 528 | 智者们早就反复提醒过，只不过说法不一样而已，措辞不同，但意思是一回事儿： 529 | 530 | > （交易市场）短期来看是投票机，长期来看是称重机…… 531 | > 532 | > ​ —— 格雷厄姆 533 | 534 | 所以，韭菜想要翻身，说一千道一万，只有一条路可走： 535 | 536 | > **降低交易频次…… 降低降低再降低。** 537 | 538 | 千万别不信：**只要你在频繁交易，你就依然是一根“韭菜”而已**。降低交易频次，说起来容易做起来难。很多高手都劝新手不要频繁交易，只不过他们拿出来的根据虽然极其有道理，但是新手并不在意： 539 | 540 | > 频繁交易的结果就是交易手续费累积，累积到吞噬你的所有利润和本金…… 541 | 542 | 我们已经知道几乎所有新手都犯的错误是，误以为自己参与的是“零和游戏”，所以，他们中的绝大部分最终沦为“韭菜”。但是，绝大多数人压根就没意识到的是，随着他们交易频率的提高，他们真的越来越接近于“在乐此不疲地玩一个真正的零和游戏”。 543 | 544 | 最可怕的是，交易市场里的“零和游戏”，宏观来看，只有交易所是赢家，除了它之外都会输的。虽然玩家之间在“赌”（交易），但交易所在“抽水”（收手续费），无论玩家双方的输赢，于是，你赢的时候被抽走一点点，你输的时候也被抽走一点点，而对方无论输赢也同样被抽走一点点…… 结论是什么？ 545 | 546 | > **事实上，交易市场里永远没有零和游戏！** 547 | 548 | “韭菜”的幻觉在于，他们用行动表明他们的坚信和坚持，他们认为自己的智商与体力，完全可以打败手续费…… 殊不知，“抽水”是人类史上唯一可以永续的商业模式，真的不是哪个个人能够打败的，看看世界各地的券商就明白了。 549 | 550 | 降低交易频次的巨大好处在于另外一个方面。 551 | 552 | 当交易频次越高的时候，回报风险比很难变高，而是变得越来越低。因为在那么短的时间里，“突然”产生巨大回报的可能性极低极低 —— 虽然在一个波动（风险）巨大的市场里，偶尔会看到“暴涨暴跌”，但，捕捉这些暴涨暴跌，恰好是最危险的，是火中取碳。 553 | 554 | 当你尝试着**主动**降低交易频次的时候 —— 注意，是“主动”，而相对来看，“不由自主地高频次交易”本身是交易者已经被市场左右的被动行为 —— 你会发现，这其实相当于你主动提高了回报风险比，因为你在没有改变分母（风险）的情况下，主动提高了对分子（回报）的预期。 555 | 556 | 刚开始的时候，我的交易频率也非常高。等我想明白了，开始主动降低交易频次之后，才有机会体会到自己对回报的满足“阀值”在不断提高。最后，我甚至给自己定下了这样的规矩： 557 | 558 | > **涨到十倍之前，就当它不存在。** 559 | 560 | 十倍！这是我在交易频次相对较高的时候甚至干脆未曾想象过的回报级别。也许这个倍数，将来我会为自己调整，但是，这个数字绝对是我长期多次主动降低交易频次之后才能在我脑子里出现的东西。凭空无法臆想。 561 | 562 | 这事儿有点违背直觉，在交易市场里： 563 | 564 | > * 越是短期的预测，越接近于抛硬币； 565 | > * 越是长期的预测，越容易接近真实的逻辑推断…… 566 | 567 | 所以，降低交易频次的本质，是拒绝抛硬币，坚持逻辑推断。 568 | 569 | ----- 570 | 571 | ### 13. 到底最后是谁在割谁的韭菜呢…… 572 | 573 | 交易有风险。 574 | 575 | 法律真的很好玩，交易标的发行者，如果不向公众公示风险，很可能会被认定是犯罪，罪名是诈骗。可事实上，这本来完全不用公示的啊！—— 因为一切的交易都有风险，交易者应该进场之前自己就明白的！ 576 | 577 | 可惜，“韭菜”们就是那么冲动，冲进来的时候，不阅读、不思考、不学习，他们之所以一冲进来就“买买买”，理由非常简单，“别人已经赚到钱了！” —— 保护“韭菜”真的非常不容易。 578 | 579 | “被套了”之后才开始研究“价值投资”的，都是善良的韭菜，因为他们起码还在“默默地承担自己错误决策带来的损失”，而后希望通过“学习”改善自己的遭遇。 580 | 581 | 更极端的“韭菜”，其实是更常见的“韭菜”，一般都是要“维权”的！**再一次，他们要“讨个说法”，讨一个让自己舒服的说法。** 582 | 583 | 2018 年 7 月，雷军的小米在香港上市，当天破发。很多二级市场的投资人成了“高位接盘者”而“被套”，很多人成了所谓“被割的韭菜”，那么，请问，“割韭菜”的人是雷军吗？ 584 | 585 | 在这种情况下，因为自己被套，认为自己被雷军割了韭菜的人，真的思维混乱，乃至于他们完全不应该进入交易市场，因为他们不仅自己逻辑混乱，并且完全没有为自己的决策和行为负责的能力 —— **能力这个东西，不是自己以为有就可以的**，是吧？ 586 | 587 | 今天全球市值排名最靠前的 Facebook 当年上市也破发了呢！请问： 588 | 589 | > 如果当年破发之前买 Facebook 股票的人在破发的时候并没有“割肉”而是持有到今天，他是赚钱了呢？还是赚钱了呢？！ 590 | 591 | 显然，这样的人没有“被割韭菜”，并且，他们也不是靠“割韭菜”赚到的钱，不是吗？！ 592 | 593 | 仔细观察，你会看到真相： 594 | 595 | > 所谓的“韭菜”其实常常并不是被别人割，在更多的情况下，**他们是被自己割的！** 596 | 597 | 他们犯的错误拆解开来有三个： 598 | 599 | > - 先是不能正确识别价值和价格，做出了错误的购买决定； 600 | > - 而后依然不能正确识别价值和价格，所以做出了错误的出售决定； 601 | > - 最后还是不能正确识别价值和价格，但是全然不自知，认为是别人欺骗了他们，自己“被割了韭菜”…… 602 | 603 | 以上，我们讨论的是好资产的交易。市场上有没有坏的资产呢？（注意，是“坏”的，而不是“不好的”，这两者之间也有很大的区别，不应该混淆。）当然有！市场上不仅有坏的资产，还有很多欺骗。恶意操纵市场，内部不当交易，违规利益输送…… 无数变种。在现实的交易市场（比如股票市场）里，法律法规发展完善了这么多年，以上的恶行也从来没有被铲除干净过，法律是滞后的，坏人却是永远不断进步的…… 区块链世界里呢？在一个法律更不完善，法律更为落后的世界里，当然坏的资产更多，欺骗也更多！ 604 | 605 | 再进一步，利用“韭菜”的认知落后，认知缺陷，诱导韭菜“高价接盘”再想办法让他们“挥刀自宫”的，绝对是坏人，虽然有时候法律还跟不上，但，他们是确定的坏人。这有点像什么呢？在街上偶尔你会看到故意把自己的车牌掩盖或者部分掩盖（你见过用泥巴抹在车牌上以至于三两个数字或字母被盖住的罢？）的人，是“确定的坏人”，为什么呢？因为这种人在还没被抓的时候就已经准备好了逃避责任…… 所以，他们是“确定的坏人”。 606 | 607 | 说实话，你还没见过更狠的“韭菜”呢！ 608 | 609 | > 他们知道自己“被割”了，所以决定要坚持到“自己能割别人”，在这个过程中，若是谁竟然戳穿了真相，妨碍了“自己将要割韭菜的机会”，那就跟你拼命。 610 | 611 | 有兴趣的话，你可以在网上搜索一下“南京钱宝网”事件。很多所谓的“投资人”明知道他们参与的是个庞氏骗局，但，他们是这么想的： 612 | 613 | > 在自己还没有解套之前，钱宝网若是垮了，那自己不就成了无可救药的受害者吗？ 614 | 615 | 所以，在找到下一批受害者之前，钱宝网是不能跨的！现在你知道“韭菜”多吓人了吧？ 616 | 617 | ----- 618 | 619 | ### 14. 我要是在那里卖这里买就好了…… 620 | 621 | **所有的韭菜都有幻觉。**每一天，甚至每时每刻，他们都在盯着 K 线图。时不时，他们的脑子里就会浮现出一个念头： 622 | 623 | > 唉！我要是在那里卖出（眼瞅着某个价格高点）然后在这里再买入（目光挪到某个价格低点）…… 就好了！ 624 | 625 | 不知道你怎样，单说我自己，我最初的时候就有过这种**幻觉** —— 后来，经过观察，我猜每个新手都有过这样的幻觉罢。 626 | 627 | 它之所以是幻觉，看那句型就知道了： 628 | 629 | > …… 就好了。 630 | 631 | 这是最典型的人们想要摆脱尴尬的时候所使用的句型。现实是，过去不能更改；韭菜却仍然忍不住去幻想一下，要是过去这样那样更改就好了。这明显是小孩子才有的不切实际的念头，然而，冲进交易市场之后，在外面那么“成熟”的人，突然之间又开始极度幼稚起来…… 632 | 633 | 这种幻觉，新手难免有，但**老韭菜们却长期幼稚**。 634 | 635 | 听听他们所描述的“黑庄”（很可能也是他们的幻觉）就知道了： 636 | 637 | > “李笑来在 EOS 32 元的时候全部抛出套现，而后等市场砸到 6 元的时候，有全部买了回来…… 这一来二去，才几天时间，李笑来就获利 5 倍以上！” 638 | > 639 | > （这是 2017 年 8 月中旬的一篇报道中所描述的） 640 | 641 | 32 元，是 EOS 在那一个阶段的最高点；而 6 元，是那个阶段的最低点。李笑来真的很厉害哦！竟然能提前准确地预测最高点，然后“全部抛出”！不仅如此，很快又预测到了最低点，然后竟然在那个点上“全部买回”！ 642 | 643 | 这是非常令人惊讶的事情，新手不知道就罢了，韭菜们都老了还这样？在任何一个时间点都有一个价格，在交易市场上，伴随着那个价格，有一个“**盘口交易量**” —— 这很重要！ 644 | 645 | 冷静一下，仔细看看 K 线图就知道了，在当时 32 元的价格上，成交量事实上很少 —— 事实上，在任何“最高点”、“最低点”的价格上，成交量都很少！在最高点的价格上，只能卖掉那一点点的量，再接着卖，就要以更低的价格成交了…… 反过来，在最低点的价格上，只能买到那一点点的量，再接着买，就要以更高的价格成交了…… 646 | 647 | 韭菜就是这样，对自己的过去时不时需要使用幻觉安慰自己；进而，对正在发生的事情也会不由自主地使用同样的幻觉解释 —— 全然不知道那实际上是完全不可能发生的事情。 648 | 649 | 还是同样的机理： 650 | 651 | > 他们认为自己在玩零和游戏，所以，自己赔掉的钱，一定有人赚走…… 至于是谁“赚”走的，因为他们并不知道那个“谁”是他们自己幻想出来的存在，所以，必然是“真实的人”，是谁呢？只能是那个“他们已然知道赚到钱的那个人”…… 所以，他们就很自然地把李笑来当作那个人。对！只能是李笑来。 652 | 653 | 等你一点一点进步，离开注定成为韭菜的那条路之后，你自然会明白的： 654 | 655 | > 作为交易市场中的一份子，你不大可能在最高点卖出，也很难在最低点买入…… 656 | 657 | 为什么呢？理由很清楚也很简单： 658 | 659 | > 最高点和最低点，都是因为一小部分交易者的“**冲动**”造成的…… 660 | 661 | 你注定要成为一个不冲动的人，所以，**那一部分冲动的交易注定不属于不冲动的你！** 662 | 663 | 相信我，你是一个正常人，所以，时不时出现一点幻觉是非常正常的。然而，你不一样。哪儿不一样？不一样的地方在于，当幻觉出现的时候，你能识别那个幻觉，明确地知道那是个幻觉，所以，你就可以像正常人一样，使劲晃晃脑袋，甩掉那个幻觉，继续正常生活、正常思考…… 664 | 665 | ----- 666 | 667 | ### 15. 人怎样变坏的就会怎样变傻的…… 668 | 669 | 人之初性本善，还是性本恶？我越来越相信是“**性本善**”的。 670 | 671 | 人们是从愚蠢变得越来越聪明吗？还是反过来，本来挺聪明，后来渐渐变傻？观察得越多，我越相信是后者。 672 | 673 | 事实上： 674 | 675 | > **人是如何变坏的，那人就是如何变傻的**，这两个过程的机理完全相同。 676 | 677 | 请问，这世界真的有“百分之百的坏人”吗？ 678 | 679 | 这是我最近一年经常思考的问题，因为过去的十几年里，我只遇到过一个我极其不喜欢的人。因为我不肯在她离开电子工业出版社的时候，把我写的一本畅销书的发行权私下给她带走，而是选择仍然在电子工业出版社出版。从此之后，此人不会放弃任何一个“黑李笑来”的机会，甚至疑似曾经动用水军搅混水。不过，毕竟十几年一个其实是很少的，比例很低的。 680 | 681 | 从小我就不是个特别合群的人，但，经过自我训练之外完善之后的我，好朋友很多，并且在三十岁之后越来越多 —— 虽然依然不见得“合群”。 682 | 683 | 我给朋友介绍朋友的时候，常常是这样开场的 —— 这也是我很自豪的地方： 684 | 685 | > 这是我二十年的朋友…… 686 | 687 | 关于我是如何交朋友的，我在微信公共帐号上专门写过文章：《什么是朋友？》（总计两篇）。 688 | 689 | 然而，我的整个 45 岁，也就是过去的一整年里，我遇到了批量的所谓“坏人”，背叛、欺骗、诬陷、颠倒是非、甚至陷害…… 在这里我就不一一点名了罢（除了[郑伊廷 (@xdite)](https://github.com/xdite)之外 —— 因为要用她举例）—— 但人数竟然一只手五根手指不够用了！这么密集，不得不让我必须想办法思考：难道是我自己出问题了吗？ 690 | 691 | 反复思索的结论有两个： 692 | 693 | > 1. 坏人的比例好像并没有增加，因为过去这一年我新认识的人数，基本上相当于过往二十年的总和…… 694 | > 2. 而后我惊讶地发现，这世界没有百分之百的坏人，只有“好人”和“部分坏掉的人”…… 695 | 696 | 你仔细想一下，你这辈子遇到过“**百分之百的坏人**”吗？我仔细想了一下，发现没有。放眼望过去，看周遭，甚至看历史，我都没找到 —— 哪怕是杀人犯也可能很爱护自己的女儿，甚至强奸犯也有爱情，《色戒》不就是讲这种故事的吗？ 697 | 698 | 于是，最终，我的结论是： 699 | 700 | > 所有的人都是**向好**的。 701 | 702 | 如果让我在“人之初性本善”和“人之初性本恶”之间选择，现在的我只能选择前者。所以，没有“纯粹的坏人”，可能只有“部分的坏人”，比如，百分之十坏人，百分之二十坏人…… 我猜，“百分之五十的坏人”都很难存在，因为连百分之五十都过了，那么他内心会有很大的煎熬。 703 | 704 | **所有的人都是向好的。**可是，一旦这个人做了一个坏的决策，那么他将面临一个选择： 705 | 706 | > - 承认错误，而后努力改正错误…… 707 | > - 不承认错误，而后把那个错误“合理化”（rationalization）…… 708 | 709 | “把自己做过的错事合理化”，本质上来看是一个**自我大脑重塑**的过程。这个过程一旦完成，此人依然是一个内心“向好”的人 —— 这样才能解释为什么那些贪官污吏也确实在家里教孩子做人要人品端正。 710 | 711 | 如果把这个世界里的人简单地分为“好人”和“坏人”两种，那么，这种并不清晰的概念会不断地影响未来的决策，当然肯定会被这种可能的错误决策（或者干脆称为“幻觉导致的行动”）所拖累。所以，我得感谢这一年中我遇到的这些人，他们的存在，最终的结果就是“李笑来又进化了”。 712 | 713 | 如果不是如此升级过我自己的“操作系统”，我是完全没办法理解郑伊廷的行为的。在过去的几个月里，她四处把李笑来描绘成“黑心投资人”，可永远回避几个显而易见的事实： 714 | 715 | > - 在李笑来的帮助下，她在大陆靠开培训班赚到了她在台湾好多年都没有赚到的钱； 716 | > - 这个培训公司，李笑来投资的，期间甚至主动要求并实施，把股份比例从 40% 降到 30%，告诉她“我无所谓，我希望你努力多赚一点”； 717 | > - 后来的 OTCBTC，绝大多数初期用户，都来自于李笑来的社群； 718 | > - OTCBTC 这个项目上，到 2018 年 8 月初为止，郑伊廷没有给李笑来任何投资回报，甚至连最初的投资款都没有归还…… 719 | 720 | 要是想骂李笑来是个“黑心投资人”，那么她起码在赚了钱之后把投资款还掉之后再骂好不好呢？ 721 | 722 | 在自我升级之后，我开始明白她的思考路径了。在赚到了巨额可能的利润和估值之后，她突然发现当初定下的 40% 实在是太多了，所以，她不想跟早期投资人分享，不再想履行之前约定的义务。这是唯一的核心理由，也是她后来的实际行动 —— 然而，她必须合理化这个决定和行动。在合理化完成之后，她的内心还是完整地向上的，比如，依然很勤奋，依然很努力，依然不断地说服他人也告诉自己，自己是善良公平正义的…… 只不过，留下了一个后遗症： 723 | 724 | > 1. 这个决策和行动既然已经被合理化，那么下一次遇到同样的情况，她就会毫不犹豫地做出同样的决策和行动…… 725 | > 2. 在下一次遇到稍微更过分的情况的时候，她做出错误决策的成本更低，冲动更高…… 726 | 727 | 所以，看着郑伊廷不断合理化自己的行为，在“成为一个更坏的人”的路上那么努力，坦白讲，不可能恨她，只是觉得她挺可怜的 —— 只不过是这个世界里又一个可怜人而已。 728 | 729 | 有记者问我，提到郑伊廷以及另外几个人： 730 | 731 | > 你恨他们吗？ 732 | 733 | 我的回答也一样： 734 | 735 | > 不恨。真的不恨。首先没空，其次真的觉得他们挺可怜的，因为只要开始坏掉，就根本回不来了…… 736 | 737 | 而且，如果我不能理解这种“正常现象”的存在，我的世界就黑暗了。 738 | 739 | 我也可能就会把偷录与谈话，事后又泄露出去的那对夫妇理解成“坏蛋” —— 五个月前偷偷录音，五个月后，暗中交给别有用心的人，然后制造李笑来的负面形象…… 740 | 741 | 可实际上呢？实际上更可能是这样： 742 | 743 | > 他们在跟我谈话的时候，多少还是把李笑来当作老师一样的人物，认为李笑来的思考是有价值的，所以偷偷录下来；若是他们当场征求同意的话，要么被拒绝，要么李笑来同意了之后，五个月后大家听到的是“洁版” —— 不会有那么多脏话，批评谁的时候也不会指名道姓…… 744 | > 745 | > 估计是后来他们把这个录音分享给了身边的朋友或者同事，再然后，被别有用心的人发现了，然后用最狠的手段“整”李笑来： 746 | > 747 | > > - 通篇断章取义； 748 | > > - 甚至不惜编造言论（李笑来不用“韭菜”这个概念，却用那样惊悚的标题）； 749 | > > - 花钱找主流媒体的新浪微博帐号转发； 750 | > > - 在很多微信群、电报群里雇佣水军制造更惊悚的话题； 751 | > > - 组织很多“举报群”，煽动情绪，承诺“跟我说，我帮你们找政府”； 752 | > > - 组织很多人给相关部门领导匿名电话举报 —— 举报材料是他们编造出来的“录音爆料”； 753 | > > - 找到律师说，“花多少钱都要把李笑来搞进去”…… 754 | 755 | 所以，他们俩其实不是罪人，但是，也挺可怜的 —— 从此之后，还有谁愿意、还有谁敢对他们坦诚相待了呢？ 756 | 757 | 有人向我推销防窃听工具，有人向我推荐“更厉害的黑公关专业团队”…… 我都拒绝了。我不想因为遇到他们那样的人，就变成他们那样，一点都不想。 758 | 759 | **我希望我还是原来那个样子。** 760 | 761 | 更进一步，**我不想变坏**，哪怕一点点。 762 | 763 | 面对那样的人，我也不想使用“他们的手法”、“他们的手段”，以暴制暴什么的…… 因为那样的话，即便是赢了，也是输，并且输得更惨，因为你被他们改变了 —— 还有什么比这个更惨的呢？ 764 | 765 | 准确地讲，连“**我想做个好人**”都高抬我自己了，我真正想做到的，不过是： 766 | 767 | > **我一点都不想变坏。** 768 | 769 | 如何不变坏？很简单啊，已经说清楚了啊！ 770 | 771 | > 若是不小心做错了事，一定要改正，绝对不尝试去做任何形式的“合理化”。 772 | 773 | 人变傻的机理也一样，完全一样。只不过是因为做了个愚蠢的决定，只不过是没有努力去纠正思考，只不过是不由自主地“合理化”自己之前的愚蠢…… 于是，人就开始变傻了，在变傻的路上越走越远。前面讨论过的所有“韭菜”思维，都是清楚的例子和说明。 774 | 775 | 所以，不想变傻，就必须做一件事情： 776 | 777 | > 做一次傻事没关系，但，一旦发现自己很傻，就要**马上纠正**，绝对不能对自己的傻屄行为进行合理化，否则，就只能在变傻的路上越走越远…… 最可怕的是，傻屄绝对不孤独，因为他们天然人口比例更高，共识更强烈，所以，若是你自己不足够警惕，那么你一定会变成一个感觉幸福实则痛苦的傻屄 —— 这一点毫无疑问。 778 | 779 | 所以，到最后，所有智者都是完全一样的，没有区别，他们的看法一致： 780 | 781 | > 如果经过一段时间之后，你竟然不觉得过去的你很傻屄，那表明你已经彻底变成了无可救药的傻屄…… 782 | 783 | 看看桥水的达里奥是怎么说的吧： 784 | 785 | > 痛苦 + 反思 = 进步 786 | 787 | 经过这番思考，从那之后，我对人的评价措辞开始发生了变化。“不坏”，是对人品最高的评价；同样，“不傻”是对智商最高的评价 —— 应了那个句式：好人千篇一律，坏人千奇百怪；聪明人千篇一律，傻瓜五彩缤纷…… 788 | 789 | > 推荐：有一篇《科学美国人》杂志上的文章，建议认真读一下。The Dark Core of Personality，顺便学一个概念，“*D*-Factor”，网址是： 790 | > 791 | > https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-dark-core-of-personality/ 792 | 793 | ----- 794 | 795 | ### 16. 正确地提升收益风险比的方法…… 796 | 797 | 进入交易市场的人们，从来不缺痛苦，因为痛苦这东西几乎漫天飞舞；于是，真正稀缺的只有一样东西： 798 | 799 | > **反思** 800 | 801 | 痛苦和反思，这两样东西都有了，必然会产生进步。所以，新手想要躲避韭菜宿命，就得天天反思，时时刻刻反思，反思之后还要再反思…… 802 | 803 | 你进入的是个有风险的地方，在这里几乎没有确定的收益，那怎么办？或者换个说法，“如何才能正确地提高**回报风险比**”呢？ 804 | 805 | > **回报风险比 = 可能的回报 ÷ 可能的风险** 806 | 807 | 这么简单的公式能研究出什么玄机呢？盯着一个东西看很久很久，胡思乱想很久很久，就是所谓“深度思考”的唯一方法。就好像我们盯着天花板能看出原本看不到的图案一样，所有的深度思考，都是盯着一个小东西想很久很久的结果。笛卡尔发明直角坐标系，就是这么个过程 —— 有兴趣去搜索引擎上查查笛卡尔的故事罢。 808 | 809 | 看着公式，就知道，提高回报风险比的方法，无非有两个：要么加大分子，要么减小分母…… 810 | 811 | 减小分母，可行的手段有这么几个： 812 | 813 | > * 调整止损线，降低自己的风险承担 814 | > * 降低每次的交易金额在总资金的占比； 815 | > * 提高自己在场外的赚钱能力（或者募资能力）； 816 | 817 | 还有吗？想想罢。这其中的每一条，都值得你去调整自己的行为。 818 | 819 | 而加大分子呢？有什么可行的手段？ 820 | 821 | > * 选择更为优质的交易标的 822 | > * 选择最佳的交易时机（比如，若干次暴跌之后再买） 823 | > * 放长持有时间（比如，穿越一次以上的牛熊） 824 | 825 | 每个人的偏好不同，每个人的历史不同，每个人的欲望不同，所以，**这里没有什么标准答案**。以上各自罗列的三条，也不见得是最全面的罗列。我自己呢，能力也有限，最终罗列出来的有意义的也就这么三条。于是，我只能在我的能力范围内做出选择。 826 | 827 | 最终，我的选择是这样的： 828 | 829 | > * 为了减小分母，我想办法继续提高场外赚钱能力，进场的钱，就当是丢了…… 830 | > * 为了加大分子，我买入之后就不动，不管涨跌，穿越多次牛熊…… 831 | 832 | 许多年过后，我发现自己当初这么选还是有前提的： 833 | 834 | > **我的生活消费水平很一般，平日里花不了多少钱**。并且我在进入交易市场之前，就是个生活相对富足的所谓“中产阶级”。于是，当我进入交易市场的时候，相对来看，我的“变现”欲望阀值比较高，或者是“极度高”；所以，形成了良性循环。分子越来越大，分母相对越来越小…… 835 | 836 | 反正，你的目标很清楚，当分子相对大到一定程度的时候，你就不再是“韭菜”了，因为你已经摆脱了“韭菜魔咒”，如何摆脱的呢？靠自己的选择。等你做到了，你去讲给那些“韭菜”听，他们信不信呢？我用经验告诉你罢，他们啊，坚！决！不！信！为什么呢？到时候你就知道了。 837 | 838 | ----- 839 | 840 | ### 17. 其实真不是谁都能去做早期的…… 841 | 842 | 思考片面，是所有“韭菜”的通病。不信，你走着瞧。 843 | 844 | 做早期投资很难的！只不过是绝大多数人不知道而已。他们只看到早期投资者赚到很多钱的传说，却全然不知道真相。 845 | 846 | **首先，早期投资者的失败项目比成功项目多很多倍……** 847 | 848 | 你听说的可能是李笑来 2011 年就开始买比特币；2015 年年末，以太坊一出来，虽然李笑来自己并不看好，但合伙人老猫却抓住了机会；2017 年，EOS 种子期李笑来虽然不知道，但天使期李笑来就投资了…… 除此之外，李笑来还投资过 QTUM, ZCASH, SIA, GXS, XIN, MOB…… 849 | 850 | > 老猫的书，《区块链投资笔记》，我自己都看了很多遍…… 851 | 852 | 李笑来是在网上公开生存的人，所以，他也不会刻意隐瞒自己投资的失败项目。要是你把李笑来所有的投资项目全都罗列出来（我虽然不隐瞒，但也不好意思四处公开罗列），结论很清楚，失败项目数量是成功项目数量的十多倍！ 853 | 854 | **其次，早期投资者其实投不进去很多钱……** 855 | 856 | 这是绝大多数人完全没想过的问题。Peter Thiel 投资 Facebook 的时候，是最早的天使投资人，可他投进去了多少钱呢？50 万美金而已。他也想“重仓”，可实际上，投不进去啊！刚起步的公司给太多钱就会变坏，你信不信？给更多的钱，就得占更多的比例，创业者不干也不敢，你信不信？ 857 | 858 | **还有更重要的呢！早期投资者，由于自己的“早期”，所以只能成为长期投资者……** 859 | 860 | Peter Thiel 在 Facebook 上市之前的相当长一段时间里，那部分股权是“完全没有流动性”的 —— 没有流动性的资产，增值和缩水的，都只不过是“账面价值”而已。 861 | 862 | 2011 年下半年到 2012 年上半年，我买了很多比特币。到了 2013 年 4 月 1 日，比特币从最低点1 美元不到，三五个月里暴涨到 100 美元！你觉得一定赚了很多吧！事实上呢？当时的交易市场里，交易量很低很低，大量的交易所里，充斥着的是各种交易所刷出来假量，被人们戏称“幽灵单”…… 所以，我那个数量级是根本出不去的，想要出掉一部分，就叫“砸盘”，那时真的能砸到吓人的地步。于是，那个“浮盈”，充其量只不过是能看一看开开心的数字，一点都不真实。直到 2017 年，整个市场的交易量才达到我可以自由进出的程度 —— 不过，对我来说已经完全没必要了，反正我的消费能力很差。 863 | 864 | 你再想象一下 Facebook 于 2012 年 2 月 2 日上市的时候。上市第二天它的股价就破发了，“暴跌 11%” 呢！就算是你在“暴跌”之前买入，“被割了一茬韭菜”，拿到今天，是多少倍收益呢？自己去查它的股价历史数据罢…… 865 | 866 | 可关键在这里： 867 | 868 | > 等 Facebook 上市的时候，肯定不是“早期投资”了，但，它的盘面更大，它的流动性更好…… 869 | 870 | 于是，**你想投资多少就能投资多少**，而不是有上限的“仅仅五十万美元”…… 871 | 872 | “韭菜”们思考片面，他们永远只看“单价”，进而得出结论“现在已经太贵了！” 于是，他们总是去找“更便宜的”，总是去找“更早的机会”…… 殊不知，这种片面的思考，恰恰是“无形的镰刀”，正在一茬一茬地割着自己。 873 | 874 | 早期投资真的不是谁都能做的，不说必需的人脉，单说资金构成就不对。做早期投资，风险极高，绝大多数项目会失败，因此必须有能力投 100 个 50 万的项目，即，如果一个项目投 50 万，那么得准备好 5000 万才行，就算你自信自己的判断力比别人强一倍以上，你也得拿着 2000 万才能去尝试 50 万一个的项目，不是吗？ 875 | 876 | 韭菜，显然是不满足实际条件的。不够格，却要跳着脚去做，风险就会被无限放大。 877 | 878 | 投资早期项目，绝对不是韭菜应该干的事情。你必须攒到一定地步之后，再碰这方面的机会，否则，一定会反复被割。 879 | 880 | ----- 881 | 882 | ### 18. 你要学的真不是项目分析能力…… 883 | 884 | **学任何东西，都是为了“用得上”。**可问题在于，有些能力需要很久才能磨练出来，那等不及的时候怎么办？如果，一项能力需要很久才能磨炼出来，结论当然不是“那就不学”了，正确的结论是： 885 | 886 | > 学着，但不着急用，等够用了再说…… 887 | 888 | 然而，**总有一些可以“现学现用”的有效技能。**善于学习的人，其实就是善于辨别技能的这方面属性，他们会判断什么东西要慢慢磨练，什么东西要迅速上手，迅速实践。 889 | 890 | 韭菜们依葫芦画瓢却研究“项目分析能力”的时候，和钱钟书笔下“小镇里研究时髦的女人们”一模一样，都花了时间，都花了精力，结果却只能是东施效颦而已。 891 | 892 | 你就别干这事儿了。这是你要慢慢观察，慢慢整理，不断反思，甚至还要不断否定自我才可能最终获得的技能。也正因为如此，这个技能不能乱用，不能马上用，反正，你必须耐心磨炼它 —— 至少三年。 893 | 894 | 那你要学的，能马上用的，究竟是什么呢？ 895 | 896 | 本来最重要的一条是：“**进场之后，不要动，看上一年之后再动手买**”，因为这样的话，你已经“更聪明了”…… 不过，这一条你没机会享用了，因为你跟绝大多数人一样，已然“被割了一茬”。 897 | 898 | 那…… 还好有我！让我来告诉你第二条，这一条你能马上用到，并且你还来得及学，来得及用。 899 | 900 | > **只买交易量最大的那么一两个或者两三个标的。** 901 | 902 | 这是一种智慧。暂时放弃自己的智商，去相信整个市场的智商。市场都帮你选好了，为啥不服呢？ 903 | 904 | 这真的是很难理解很难做到的事情。一方面，自己要不断进步不断学习，起码防止自己一点一点变傻，另外一方面竟然还要暂时放弃自己的智慧…… 太矛盾了吧？！ 905 | 906 | 也许这就是为什么经常有人错误地总结说“投资是很反人性的活动”的原因罢？ 907 | 908 | 其实这完全不矛盾，甚至事实上一点都不反人性： 909 | 910 | > 既然自己最初的时候智慧不足，那么暂时放弃，让它在一旁静静磨练，有什么不对呢？放弃了自己的智商，并不意味着智商无处可寻呢！市场是有智商的，并且市场常常更聪明，你难道不信吗？等你的智商磨炼到一定程度的时候，也就明白了…… 911 | 912 | 所以，这么做不是“反人性”，与之相悖的，事实上只不过是过去的你并没有打磨过自己的学习习惯和方式，过去的你总以为什么东西都是需要学好了才能用，你也不知道这世界真的有些东西是可以现学现卖并且这么做的确才是最优选择。 913 | 914 | 给你讲个真实的故事，看看有没有启发。 915 | 916 | > 曾经，在上海的股市里，有一支力量，人称“涨停敢死队”。他们的方法很简单，只要看哪一支股票快涨停了，就冲进去，第二天再等一个涨停板，第三天开盘然后就跑。第二天快休市的时候竟然没有涨停，就马上跑。就这么简单。这一伙人操作了十多年，愣是从几万块钱搞到了不知道多少钱…… 917 | > 918 | > 他们很坦诚，“我们没怎么读过书，笨么！所以就不想了，反正想也想不明白。哪支股票快涨停了，就说明市场帮我们想好了，我们就是个干！” 919 | 920 | 你当然不应该依葫芦画瓢，但，你可以从这个实例中看到人家是怎样避免成为“韭菜”的，人家有止损策略，人家有止盈策略，更重要的是人家有放弃自己智慧的智慧，和放弃自己智慧的勇气…… 921 | 922 | 暂时放弃自己的智商，还有另外一个定律作为支撑： 923 | 924 | > 在交易市场上，涨得猛的，会涨得更猛；跌得狠的，会跌得更狠…… 于是， 925 | > 926 | > * 所有东西都在涨的时候，一定要选那个涨的最猛的；因为概率上来看，或者说，市场在教育你，它更可能涨； 927 | > * 在所有东西都在跌的时候，一定要选那个跌得最少的；因为概率上来看，或者说，市场在教育你，它最抗跌…… 928 | 929 | 也许你会想，“这不是在教我投机嘛！” —— 别急，早晚你会有自己的结论的。只不过，在最早期的时候，你智商还不够，所以，必须暂时放弃智商的使用（而不是“放弃智商的锻炼”）而已。 930 | 931 | 观察一下“韭菜”们你就知道你有多明智了。他们的“智商”是随着 K 线跳跃的，伴随着“下注”与否倍增的…… 币价涨了的时候他们飞扬跋扈，币价跌了的时候他们犹如丧家之狗。你想跟他们一样吗？—— 嗯，我好像听到远处有人暴喊了一声“NO！” 932 | 933 | ----- 934 | 935 | ### 19. 韭菜没有生活甚至没有性生活…… 936 | 937 | 2013 年的时候，我在北京的车库咖啡演讲，最后五分钟，给所有听众提了一个中肯的建议： 938 | 939 | > 记住，你要有生活，并且，**生活最重要！** 940 | 941 | 五年过去了之后的今天，你自己打开搜索引擎，搜索一下“区块链 性生活”，搜索结果第一页的文章随便点开哪个看一会儿呗…… 那些文章，事实上并不是戏谑，确有其事。 942 | 943 | 新手成长为“非韭菜”，最重要的手段，你读到现在还记得吗？ 944 | 945 | > **降低交易频率** 946 | 947 | 这看起来无比简单的方法，却最终很少有人做到，为什么呢？ 948 | 949 | 因为我们是人，我们天生基因就决定了我们喜欢关注变化。在生活中也一样，我们关注的都是动的东西，而不是静止的东西。这就是为什么绝大多数人喜欢养小动物，相对来看喜欢养花种草种树的人相对少很多很多…… 950 | 951 | 冲进交易市场的新手，一上来就会被 K 线上各种相关跳动的数字和指标所吸引，这很正常。中国人参与 A 股市场交易相对还是很幸福的 —— 每天上午那么晚才开市，两个小时之后午休，下午也是很早就闭市了…… 所以，即便是想盯着看，也就那么一会儿，每天还有大十几个小时事实上干脆没得看。所以，你从来没怎么听说过 A 股市场上的交易者没有性生活的。下雨天打孩子，闲着也是闲着。 952 | 953 | 区块链的世界不一样。区块链的交易市场里的交易 24 X 365，永不间歇。就算某一家交易市场系统崩溃，挂掉了，还有另外过万家交易市场在运转。A 股的股民，基本上在一家最多两家交易市场交易；区块链交易者呢，永远时时刻刻开着五六家交易所的交易界面去操作，很多韭菜们恨不得一台电脑上接入五六块大屏幕！ 954 | 955 | 韭菜们的生活，甚至性生活，究竟被什么剥夺了呢？真的是区块链吗？虽然看起来罪魁祸首那么像是区块链，但冷静的我们知道那区块链肯定是冤枉的！究竟是什么呢？是这么个东西： 956 | 957 | > Fear of Missing Out，缩写 **FOMO**，另一说是 Fear of Missing Opportunity 958 | 959 | FOMO，“**对丧失机会的极度恐惧**”。FOMO 几乎是最有群众基础的东西，而且越是底层，越容易被它左右。你看看传销或者微商的宣传口号就知道了，几乎是千篇一律的： 960 | 961 | > 你已经错过了 XXX，后来你又错过了 YYY，现在你还想错过 ZZZ 嘛？！ 962 | 963 | 越是缺乏机会的人越是容易被这样的句式扇动。冷静下来想想你就明白了，如果你是个并不缺乏机会的人，即便是比特币价格涨上天，你会因为这个事实焦虑吗？不会的！因为你有别的机会。 964 | 965 | 2018 年春节的时候，有一帮人搞了个“三点钟”群。整天不睡觉，凌晨三点还在聊，甚至那个别人快醒了的时候，他们刚开始聊。话题漫天飞舞，从历史到哲学，从数学到工程，张三李四在里面喷着各种不明觉厉的经济学名词（大多数都是肤浅的甚至是错的）…… 他们真的是“兴奋”吗？从另外一个角度看过去，他们只不过是又一批“FOMO 恐惧症患者”而已。每一次周期，都会有这么一拨人。我已经经历了三五次大大小小的牛熊，这种情况、这种人见太多了，他们说的话事实上都是在重复之前已经离开的那拨人说过的话，完全没有任何区别，却都好像是发现了新大陆一样。 966 | 967 | 然而，尴尬的是，你已经入场了。更尴尬的是，你已经深刻地体会到了 FOMO…… 那怎么办？ 968 | 969 | > **从今天开始，更加努力更加认真地生活！** 970 | 971 | 生活中有很多内容。我当年是靠这样一个做法调整自己行为的。拿着纸笔罗列我自己生活中自己觉得重要的部分，比如，经过筛选，觉得朋友是很重要的一部分。那么，与好朋友维持加固长期强关系，需要做什么呢？又罗列了好几页纸，经过筛选，发现“一块吃好吃的”是特别重要的一项。于是，需要填满时间的时候，我就开车出去四处找好馆子…… 经常是试了好多家之后才发现一个特别突出的，若是该店有若干个连锁店，我就都去一遍，在里面挑出最好的一个分店 —— 甘家口那家大熊烤羊腿，就是在四家分店中选出来的对我来说最好一家。 972 | 973 | 你喜欢读书，就去买更多的书，安心读完；你喜欢弹琴，就找来更多的曲子去练；你喜欢看电影，就去买更好的影音设备，搜集更多的影音资源…… **一定要学会自娱自乐**，善于自娱自乐，这是牛屄交易员必需的最重要技能 —— 它甚至比交易判断都要重要一百倍。对我来说，连写书、写文章都成了“自娱自乐”的主要手段之一。 974 | 975 | 如果你不善于自娱自乐，如果你不把大量的时间用于认真生活，那么你就没办法降低你的交易频率，那么你就会变得跟韭菜一样整天盯着屏幕，跟女朋友做爱都要把手机放在触手可及的地方…… 如果真的是这样的话，你就慢慢等着变成一根更不可能有性生活的老韭菜罢。 976 | 977 | ----- 978 | 979 | ### 20. 孤独是成功交易者最宝贵品质…… 980 | 981 | 你可以是新手，但你必须不是韭菜。你可以“被割一次”，但你必须不能再次被割，当然也绝对不能永恒地被割…… 所以，你还必须做一件事情： 982 | 983 | > **孤独地交易** 984 | 985 | 高手们不重视“正确”，因为谁都可以正确，这并不是什么太难的事情。真正难的事情是，你不仅正确，还与众不同地正确。“**特立独行且正确**”，才可能产生巨大的交易价值。 986 | 987 | 当人们都不看好比特币的时候，你买入了，且在随后人们长期在各种媒体上各种宣布比特币死亡的时候你一直在持有…… 你正确了，且与众不同地正确，所以，你可以赚到别人不可想象的回报。当 2017 年 9 月中文媒体一片骂声，说“EOS 在贩卖 50 亿美元的空气”的时候，你竟然一直在默默加仓，到了 2018 年 6 月，EOS 主网上线你还在持有，那么，你正确了，且相对于市场特立独行了，那么，即便是在后来的人们看到价格“暴涨暴跌”的时候，你依然在保持着将近十倍的回报…… 所以，等到全世界都在为之疯狂，都得出正确结论，甚至是过分正确的结论的时候，那正确就没那么有价值了，无论对你而言，还是对大家而言。不是吗？ 988 | 989 | “共识”可能会产生价格（其实不一定是价值）—— 这是区块链行业里的新老韭菜们挂在嘴边上的一句话。然而，你必须明白，那指的是从市场交易价格来看得出的结论，即，部分正确的结论 —— 换一个角度看，你可能会得到另外一个全然相反结论。正所谓横看成岭侧成峰。绝大多数“共识”是事实上没有价值的。 990 | 991 | 之前刚刚说过，“最初的时候可以暂时放弃自己的智商”。而现在所描述的是，在一段时间之后，你已经练就了属于你自己的思考能力，研究能力，判断能力之后的情况。 992 | 993 | 有位朋友曾经向我分享他的判断原则： 994 | 995 | > * 听大多数人的话 996 | > * 参考少数人的意见 997 | > * 自己做决定 998 | 999 | “听大多数人的话”的意思，并不是说按照人家的意思去做的那种“听话”，而是“听到”的“听”。在交易市场里存活的时候，这一条就算了，“听大多数人的话”，很累，很吵，很没有新意。“大多数人”翻过来掉过去说的都是“车轱辘话”，讲了一遍又一遍；走一拨再来一拨，说的话还是一样的…… 甚至连新闻都没有多少意义去浪费时间，绝大多数文字工作者，其实是商业的门外汉，毕竟术业有专攻。 1000 | 1001 | 所以，早晚你会明白，用两条就够了： 1002 | 1003 | > - 参考少数人的意见 1004 | > - 自己做决定 1005 | 1006 | 随着时间的推移，你的思考越来越深入，最终的结果是，“少数人”不存在了，你身边没有谁能跟你讨论，没有谁值得你去参考 —— 在一条路上走得越来越远，最终肯定形单影只，这是没办法的事情。于是，只剩下一条： 1007 | 1008 | > - **自己做决定** 1009 | 1010 | 走到这一步的时候，我猜你一定已经掌握了很多判断，掌握了很多方法，当然也积累了不少的财富。刚开始的时候觉得孤独，后面就不在如此体验了。就好像你过去生活在一个市集之中，现在你在森林的某处安了个家，虽然房子不大，但整个山林都像是你家的大院。虽然没有人声鼎沸，你可以开始听到的是其他的声音，比如鸟叫兽鸣…… 1011 | 1012 | 再往后，你会衍生出你的生活工作方法论。比如，在交易上，你就是独来独往的；在生活里，你绝不独来独往，你广交各路善缘，且不断想办法让生活更多姿多彩。于是，你会明白，只在生命中的某一个狭小的领域里孤独，不仅不可怕，还很享受…… 1013 | 1014 | 事实上，在任何领域里，想要把手中的事情做到极致，都要学会独处。每个人都有不同的属于自己的独处方式。我喜欢开车在城市里游荡，为什么？我并不痴迷于各种所谓的驾驶感，但开车确实是我比较喜欢的“独处”场景。车里是一个相对干净、安静的封闭空间，开起来之后有充足的理由拒接一切电话（手机厂商早就应该在侦测到手机正在以车速位移的情况下自动拒接电话，自动回应对方“您呼叫的号码可能正在驾驶状态”）…… 尤其是有了特斯拉的自动辅助驾驶之后，就更好了。我的很多判断、很多构想、很多决策，都是在车里做出的，因为**“独处”是促进生产力的最佳方式之一**。 1015 | 1016 | 一定要善待自己的“孤独”，这非常重要。 1017 | 1018 | 在交易市场里，这一点非常明显：**你必须也只能为自己的决策负责**。赚了是你的，赔了也只能是你的，因为那是你的决策，用你自己的钱在做交易。所有由此引发的经验与教训，是你自己的，也很难推而广之，因为别人不是你，跟你不一样，有他们自己的历史，有他们自己的偏好，有他们自己的承受能力…… 1019 | 1020 | 到最后，你会明白，**你最终的收益和你的孤独程度一定会同比增加高度一致。**如果你在这方面害怕孤独，甚至连“韭菜”都别当了，直接离开交易的世界罢，因为如果是那样的话，这里对你来说真的非常不安全…… 1021 | 1022 | ----- 1023 | 1024 | ### 21. 生活之外还必须有工作和学习…… 1025 | 1026 | 你已经看到了，“韭菜”的习性是，除了交易就是交易，什么都不要了…… 即便是有人苦口婆心地告诉他们“降低交易频率”才是逃脱韭菜宿命的唯一手段，他们也不会停的！为什么呢？连性生活都放弃了的人，还能听进去什么呢？说来好笑，我真心觉得“韭菜”非常佛系 —— 因为他们已然放弃了“红尘”。 1027 | 1028 | 然而你不一样，你要认真生活，你甚至要享受孤独。 1029 | 1030 | 更为关键的是，你还有工作，你还有学习…… 只有这样，你才是时时刻刻有进步的人，只有这样，你才能摆脱韭菜宿命。前面强调过“场外赚钱能力”，否则你就会“命短”。那现在说的就是“场外大脑成长能力”，否则你就会“体弱”。 1031 | 1032 | 韭菜们最喜欢挂在嘴边的一个词汇就是“all-in”（翻译成中文“全身投入”倒也感觉怪怪的）。他们无法理解的是，正因为他们的这个所谓“all-in”，他们才变成韭菜的，最终只不过是一根老韭菜而已…… 因为他们的 all-in 基本上最终从行动上变成了“资金 all-in 交易市场” —— 这是交易参与者的大忌！ 1033 | 1034 | 成功交易者的一个基本素质就是： 1035 | 1036 | > **在任何时候都持有一定比例（或者起码一定数量）的现金。** 1037 | 1038 | 因为他们知道，他们身处在怎样的一个高风险环境里。他们知道就算自己的判断非常准确，这世界也不一定也没必要在那一个时刻给出正确的回馈…… 意外只要存在就一定会发生！意外出现的时候怎么办？没现金就没有任何办法。这个世界里，没有救世主，只有自己准备好的风险备用金…… 1039 | 1040 | 有了这样基本的思考，所有成功的交易者最终都会做出一样的选择： 1041 | 1042 | > **在交易市场里，无论是现金、还是时间、还是生活，都绝对不可以 all-in**。 1043 | 1044 | 为什么？**因为有风险！** 1045 | 1046 | 这么做的核心，不仅仅是为了风险防护，更重要的是，**成功的交易者都知道，自己最需要的，除了现金之外，就是自身的成长**。到最后，一切高质量的交易决策，都来自于自己的成长…… 或者准确地讲，是自己的成长高度和那些拒绝成长的人所拥有的普遍认知水平之间的“认知落差”，那收益，根本就是个“认知落差瀑布”。 1047 | 1048 | 成长来自于那里？工作经验、学习努力。 1049 | 1050 | 经常有从前的学生找到我，说想要学习做投资，全职做投资。我的答案从来都是一样的，但很难说清楚很难被理解： 1051 | 1052 | > 首先，投资也好交易也罢，绝对不能当作“全职工作”…… 因为你一旦“全职”，你就没办法成长了，你必须把大量的时间花在生活上、其他的工作上、以及学习上…… 否则，你只能是另外一根韭菜。 1053 | > 1054 | > 更重要的是，投资也好交易也罢，尤其绝对不能当作一个“拿薪水”打工的工作。一旦你拿着薪水，你的脑子就开始被往另外一个方向上塑造。为什么“孤独”是这个领域里最重要的品质之一？再给你个理由：因为你独自一人的时候，没有“表现”、“表演”的刻意或者需求。人在被观察的时候，都会动作变形 —— 这也是为什么国际台球比赛选手在家里随随便便都可以打个满贯，到了国际决赛的时候，想打出个满贯就没那么随便没那么容易了的原因，因为他们所体会到的外部观察影响了他们的行动。 1055 | 1056 | 所以，你把投资和交易当作全职工作，甚至是拿薪水的全职工作，本质上就是很危险的。大脑重塑虽然可能，但是，一旦长期塑造之后，再想逆转，会非常非常艰难。爱惜自己的脑子罢。 1057 | 1058 | 长期以来，我手里做着很多事情，一方面的原因是为了做到“想尽一切办法主动降低交易频率”，另外一方面更重要的原因在于我害怕停滞，我害怕自己不成长。因为若是不成长，那么，自己就应对不了后面接踵而至的各种挑战…… **失败并不可怕，可怕的是面对失败无能为力**。 1059 | 1060 | 所以，交易之外，要有很好的生活。好生活，不是放在那里就可以的，是要寻找、培养、经营的。除了生活之外，还要有工作，不一定非要是与投资交易相关的工作，无论什么样的工作，只要想做到极致，就很难，然而，只要做到了，就一定有成长，有新的境界。生活工作之外，还要有学习，现代人最幸福的地方就是可以无生活压力地学习，而学习的目的，不是为了更高的工资，更好的社会地位，只是为了满足自己的好奇心，为了自己的大脑继续成长…… 1061 | 1062 | ### 22. 认识周期识别周期和把握周期…… 1063 | 1064 | 几乎所有的人，冲进交易市场的时候，都自然而然地犯下一个错误：一进场就买买买。之前的解释是，之所以犯下这个错误很自然，是因为他们是在牛市尾巴里冲进市场的。 1065 | 1066 | 更深层次的原因是什么呢？更深层次的原因是，这些人（包括当年的我）在冲进交易市场的时候，脑子里就没有“周期”这个概念。如果交易者脑子里有这个概念，了解这个概念，擅长应用这个概念，那他就不大可能把交易当作零和游戏了，不是吗？ 1067 | 1068 | 以后你仔细观察一下就知道了，韭菜们只喜欢谈**趋势**，而**周期**是他们脑子里根本不存在的概念。他们顶多会说： 1069 | 1070 | > - “现在是上升趋势……” 1071 | > - “现在是下降趋势……” 1072 | > - 或者，“这是大趋势！” 1073 | 1074 | 这种描述尽管有时候还算管用，但更多的时候却是肤浅的、危险的，因为一个上升趋势要加上一个下降趋势才构成一个完整的周期。而实际上，**真正的趋势常常需要在多个周期（至少 2 个）之后才能真实展现。** 1075 | 1076 | 如果我们探究的是真正的趋势，就会发现，上升与下降只不过是一个真理的表象 —— **现实的经济里没有直线，只有波（动）。** 1077 | 1078 | 在一个很长的波段中，从任何一个点前后望，看起来都像自己身处在一条直线而不是曲线上，就好像我们站在地球上却很难感知我们自己其实是站在球面上而不是平面上一样。 1079 | 1080 | **一个上升与一个下降构成一个周期**。2 个或多个周期之后，如果我们发现曲线就好像是数学课本里的 *sin* 曲线的话，那么所谓的“趋势”实际上就是一条水平线而已，而我们常常说的且在寻找的所谓“趋势”应该是个要么上升、要么下降的线条才对，因为“水平”等于“无变化”，无变化就无趋势。 1081 | 1082 | 这就解释了为什么有些人认定的所谓的趋势在另外一些人眼里根本谈不上是趋势，因为后者重视的是一个以上的周期之后所显现的真正的趋势。这也解释了为什么“跟涨杀跌”的人必然吃亏，因为他们所看到的并不是实际的趋势，他们看到的和把握的只不过是幻象而已。 1083 | 1084 | 这里有个重点，以及有趣的现象： 1085 | 1086 | > 所有的韭菜都骨子里认为自己正在交易的标的并非可以持续长期增长的…… 1087 | 1088 | 所以他们才“快进快出”，所以他们才根本无法长期持有，所以他们才“绝对没有办法降低交易频率”…… 虽然冲动的时候他们甚至会用“终生事业”之类的词修饰自己正在干的事情，但，骨子里他们就是不信该标的的长期增长。 1089 | 1090 | 问题在于，如果你正在交易的，如若你不确定是一个可以长期增长的东西的话，你在干嘛呢？好奇怪！ 1091 | 1092 | 话说回来，**关注周期，以及多个周期背后显现出来的真正趋势，会给你一个全新且更为可靠的世界和视界。** 1093 | 1094 | ……“我要是能在熊市底部建仓，而后在牛市顶部逃顶就好了……” —— 又来了，你的脑子里闪过的这个念头，说明你还是个不成熟的小孩子。 1095 | 1096 | 可说实话，理论上来讲，这也是一个有志向的新手最终应该学会的技能。但，志向不能这么短罢？因为你想的只不过是“把握一次牛熊”，而不是“穿越**多次**牛熊”…… 巴菲特老爷子怎么说的？“我喜欢的**周期**是**永远**……” 这句话里的“周期”指的不是我们正在讨论的周期的含义，但，他喜欢**永远**，为什么？因为走到一定程度之时，你能赚到的钱已经超出了你的消费能力，所以，剩下的那些，拿着一年还是拿着两年，还是拿着永远，有什么区别呢？ 1097 | 1098 | 如何把握周期呢？有很多种理论，最终，在我眼里只有一个东西简单靠谱容易上手不太可能出错：仔细**观察体会绝大多数交易者的情绪**。牛市里，FOMO 情绪达到顶峰，各种投资者开始 ALL-IN 的时候，上升趋势渐渐到头了；熊市里，大多数“韭菜”经过失望谩骂而后竟然平静了的时候，下跌趋势渐渐到底了…… 1099 | 1100 | 有两个著名的图表，可以帮助你理解更为深刻。一个是**“库伯勒 —— 罗丝改变曲线”（Kübler-Ross Change Curve）**，一个是**“新生事物的发展过程”（Transition Curve）**…… 1101 | 1102 | 如果，你尚未冲入交易市场，却意外先读到了这本小册子，甚至已经读到这最后一节，你猜，你会不会避开那个第二节里提到的“几乎所有人都犯下的错误”？ 1103 | 1104 | 我猜，你还是有 **3/4** 的概率犯错。 1105 | 1106 | 为什么呢？因为你对周期的判断有一半可能出错，然后，你控制自己的能力有一半的可能不及格…… 于是，你胜出的概率大抵上也就只有 **1/4** 而已。 1107 | 1108 | **控制自己**是天下最难的事情。以后你会知道的，当你反思自己行为的时候，你最难过的是想到那些“你自己明明知道应该怎么做却事实上没那么做”的情节。**越是简单的原理越是难以遵守**，就是这个原因。而当你意识到自己没控制好自己的时候，你甚至很难想象究竟是什么原因造成了那样的情况。我也经常感觉莫名其妙 —— 最后找到的解决方法也很含混：增加独处的时间，增加自我责怪的时间，让自己更难受一会儿，希望能记住那个痛苦，希望如此这般能够避免下一次做出同样的傻事…… 1109 | 1110 | ---- 1111 | 1112 | ### 结语 1113 | 1114 | 你不是韭菜。 1115 | 1116 | 你从来都不是韭菜。 1117 | 1118 | 你顶多是“差一点就成了韭菜”而已…… 1119 | 1120 | —— 即便当初你一入场就所谓地“被割了一茬”。 1121 | 1122 | 刚开始的时候，我们通过研究人们使用“韭菜”造句的场景分析出这么一个关于“韭菜”的定义： 1123 | 1124 | > 所谓的“韭菜”，指的是在交易市场中没赚到钱甚至赔钱的势单力薄的**散户**。 1125 | 1126 | 我如果不是花了时间精力认真写这本小册子，我也不会想到更清楚更准确的定义： 1127 | 1128 | > 所谓的“韭菜”，指的是那些在本质上并不是零和游戏的交易市场里**以为自己在玩零和游戏的交易者**…… 1129 | 1130 | 不管这种交易者的资金量是多是少，本质上他们都是“韭菜”，有着同样的“韭菜宿命”。也就是说，“韭菜”这个概念跟散户没有必然联系。韭菜之所以是韭菜，只不过是因为他们脑子里的基础假设一模一样地错了 —— 他们永恒地在一个**非零和游戏**里按照**零和游戏**的思维去决策 —— 所以他们其后的一切思考与决策都是被这个错误所局限的，乃至于他们理直气壮地做出错误的决策，而后又不断地理直气壮地为自己的错误决策进行一厢情愿的合理化，如此循环往复…… 1131 | 1132 | > 老鹰乐队的《加州旅馆》里，有一句歌词： 1133 | > 1134 | > > **牢狱心生兮自锁门**…… 1135 | > > We are all just prisoners here, of our own device... 1136 | > 1137 | > 韭菜的宿命不过如此了罢！ 1138 | 1139 | **你不一样呢！** —— 虽然你差点就变得跟他们一样…… 真的很羡慕你，读过这本小册子！咳咳。 1140 | 1141 | 你知道这不是一个零和游戏，由此你能一步一步得到很多很多颠倒乾坤的结论…… 虽然你可以暂时放弃自己的智商，但与此同时你没有忘记锻炼自己的智商，于是，你渐渐变成一个有章有法的交易者。 1142 | 1143 | 你能看到周期，你能判断自己应该在什么时候用什么样的频次交易，你有能力为自己的行为负责。你再也不用幼稚的“非黑即白”、“你坏我好”之类的二元逻辑思考，你能透过表象研究实质，你总是尝试着去寻找能够更完整地解释这个世界的规律及其方法论。你甚至可以控制自己的情绪和行为，你最终扳回了局势，你没有被那“天然的错误”所击败…… 你，凭什么是韭菜？！ 1144 | 1145 | 李笑来用这个小册子祝福你： 1146 | 1147 | > **好人一生平安……** 1148 | 1149 | ----- 1150 | 1151 | ## 附录 1152 | 1153 | ### 1. 李笑来从来都不是比特币“首富”…… 1154 | 1155 | 在最初的时候，很多比特币爱好者特别把比特币的**匿名属性**当回事儿，而我却对这种观念嗤之以鼻 —— 那美钞、法郎、港币、澳币、人民币哪个不是匿名的？你往纸钞上面写字还可能犯法呢！所以，我长期特别看不惯那些神神叨叨乃至于显得鬼鬼祟祟的比特币持有者。2011 年的时候，我甚至在自己的博客的顶部加上了一条广告：“长期收购比特币”…… 1156 | 1157 | 到了 2013 年，央视记者采访我的时候，人家问我有多少个比特币，我觉得没啥必要隐瞒，但也没必要说那么清楚，所以回答是：“六位数，第一位是 1”…… 没想到这样一问一答，有个“标签”也好，“帽子”也罢，就落到了我的头上 —— “比特币首富”。 1158 | 1159 | 可事实上，**李笑来从来都不是“比特币首富”**。在当时的情况下，我在中国境内就认识两个比特币持有数量比我更多的人。即便到了 2018 年，还是至少有两个我认识的人比特币持有数量比李笑来更多 —— 只不过，不再是 2013 年的那两个人了而已。 1160 | 1161 | 2015 到 2017 年期间，我还因为云币交易平台折损了九千多个比特币。那时候，云币的银行帐号经常被封掉，说是疑似有“黑钱”进入。为了让开发团队放心，出现挤兑的极端情况也绝对没问题，我就只好卖一些币，存到银行里…… 常常是一等就好几个月，有时候甚至好几个账户都被封掉…… 等几个月后账户解冻，那些钱能拿回来重新买币的时候，只能买回三分之一、五分之一、六分之一的比特币…… 所以，我现在更不是中国持有比特币最多的人了。 1162 | 1163 | 说来也是神奇，即便是不到六位数的这些比特币，源自于 2005 年年初的 4600 元人民币。当时我还在新东方教书。有一天被通知，说是“由于教学质量优秀”，所以奖励李笑来 2300 股新东方股票认购权，总计需要缴纳 4600 元人民币。当时的我是多少失落的，因为我还是进公司太晚…… 老教师们前两年可是被送几万股甚至几十万股的。然而，我也没啥脾气，就去交了钱。2006 年，新东方纽交所上市成功，于是，我这个没有任何海外关系的土鳖，竟然有了一个海外账户…… 1164 | 1165 | 新东方上市之后，我身边的同事们纷纷换车换房什么的，可是我没动。为啥呢？不是因为我有定力，而是，真的不值多少钱啊！拿回来再缴税之后，一辆捷达都买不起…… 当年的上市价格相当于三十多元人民币，但，还有另外一个事实：四股合一股！所以，新东方上市之后，我所拥有的新东方股票，只有 575 股！ 1166 | 1167 | 其后陆陆续续做了一些交易，最终换成了苹果股票 —— 只是因为自己开始使用 Mac 电脑。到了 2011 年年初，这些股票大约值十万美元…… 1168 | 1169 | 到了 2011 年 4 月底，我开始买比特币的时候，野心不大，只动用了一万多美元，均价 6 美元，买了 2100 个 —— 当时觉得，这事儿若是真的靠谱，那么“我要是拥有一个经济体的万分之一，也很牛屄哦！” 1170 | 1171 | 你看，**我也曾经是所谓的“韭菜”，一进场就买买买**，然后呢？一个月之后，比特币价格从 32 美元开始跌落，两三天就腰斩了…… 24 美元的时候，我闪过一个念头，卖掉了其中的 3/4，即，把本金留在里面，想着“用利润去挖矿” —— 想得很美的！ 1172 | 1173 | 结果呢？当比特币价格“暴跌”的时候，我更美了，觉得自己跑得及时…… 再然后呢？再然后我的这第一批 2100 个比特币全军覆没。 1174 | 1175 | 后来我在南方周末采访我的时候也讲过那段经历，反正以“惨败”告终。然后那留在交易所里的 1/4 呢？你听听那个交易所的名字就知道了：MtGox…… 这家交易所在 2011 年经历过一次“脱裤”（被黑客入侵的一种戏谑说法），我剩下的那五百多个币也通通不见了！ 1176 | 1177 | 我闹心了好几天。觉得自己真正经历了一场竹篮打水。 1178 | 1179 | 但突然想明白之前的行为全是错的！甚至，在这些挫折遇到的三四个月前，我和我的一位朋友钱庚在上海的一家咖啡馆，经过讨论得出个结论：“直接花钱买币是最划算的” —— “因为，在金融的世界里，没有什么人的体力和智力比资本更牛屄，所以，拼体力、拼智力都是错的！” 可是，我怎么竟然把已经想明白的道理忘得一干二净呢？！懊恼归懊恼，我做出了一个决定，把股票账户慢慢清掉，用美金买比特币…… 1180 | 1181 | 那时候已经是 2011 年的八九月份，比特币的价格进入了一个漫长的下降通道…… 我就陆续买着，偶尔价格升起来了，就卖出一些，跌得更低了，就再买回来。那时候的交易所没有现在这么发达，交易所里面的深度也很少，所以，主要靠论坛上联系矿工。到了 2012 年五六月份的时候，实在买卖不动了，现金也花光了。于是，我算了一下，我大约投入的总资金是十六万美元（幸亏那段时间的苹果股票涨的又快又稳定）…… 中间遇到若干次骗子折损了五万多美元，最终，我手中十万零八千多个比特币的均价是一美元多一点点…… 可事实上，我从来没有买到过两美元以下的比特币 —— 说明我的交易成绩还是不错的，因为在熊市里建仓其实是相对容易的。 1182 | 1183 | 为了让自己不再交易，我把电脑上的`hosts`文件改了一下，所有跟比特币相关的网站地址都被我解析成了`0.0.0.0`，所有跟比特币相关的邮件列表都被我在 Gmail 里设定了过滤条件，直接跳过收件箱放进 Archive 文件夹…… （后来吴忌寒跟我提起，2012 年 8 月的时候，烤猫创业的时候他给我发过邮件，我没回…… 事实上是我没看到，所以我当然错失了成为烤猫原始股东的机会！） 1184 | 1185 | 到了 2013 年 1 月，我从朋友嘴里听说比特币价格涨回到十美元，想了想，觉得那也不是多少钱么！就没当回事儿，到了 2013 年 2 月 28 日，比特币价格回到了当时的“历史最高点”，32 美元，结果，我看到了一篇对我来说“醍醐灌顶”的文章。 1186 | 1187 | 这篇文章讲什么的呢？这篇文章是一根“韭菜”发的日志，内容大概是： 1188 | 1189 | > 既然比特币已经涨到了历史最高点，我卖掉了我所有的比特币！ 1190 | > 1191 | > Since the price of Bitcoin has returned to its historical high, I've sold every Bitcoin in my pocket! 1192 | 1193 | 这篇文章给一下子我看乐了，“**好不容易解套了**” 的模样跃然纸上 —— 当然，事实上是我一口可乐全都喷在了屏幕！这个人从反面提醒我，我不应该成为他那样的人！于是我继续劝服自己无动于衷…… 结果呢？结果接下来三十天不到的时间里，比特币价格蹿升到 100 美元！ 1194 | 1195 | 我就这样，第一次经历了“手握一个资产直到一百倍”的过程。从那个时候我才有机会开始认真考虑投资的技能从何学起，向谁咨询，如何锻炼，怎样实践，又需要从什么地方反复思考…… 结果呢？从 2013 年年底开始的投资活动，一直到 2016 年年初，几乎所有的投资活动都是失败的，无论是比特币领域之内，还是比特币领域之外！现在回头看，废话，当然必须失败！没有经验，没有人脉，甚至没有思考的方法 —— 你不失败谁失败？！ 1196 | 1197 | 直到 2016 年，我才开始感觉“渐入佳境”。并且，这个时候，我不再是“孤身一人”了，比如，我“捡”到了一个我人生中最重要的人之一，就是后来广为人知的老猫同学。为什么是“捡到的”呢？因为老猫是邱亮同学做云币网客户回访的时候在上海意外认识的一个人。如果没有老猫，我就一定会完美地错过以太坊！他的存在，再一次让我体会到逻辑的局限，在逻辑边缘，同样的理由可能会得到截然相反的结论！虽然我在《把时间当作朋友》一书里专门讲解过这种情况，但再一次深刻体会，还是非常震撼的。后来，我们一起投资了很多项目。这一路走来，不仅有老猫，还有很多个可以终生合作的好伙伴 —— 这是我的幸运。 1198 | 1199 | 到了 2017 年，我向内部的合作伙伴宣布，李笑来再也不为自己赚钱了 —— 因为这没什么意义，因为我的消费能力很差，自己花不掉的钱，其实最终不是自己的钱。 1200 | 1201 | 而属于我个人的比特币数量，很难再增加了，因为那之后比特币的价格又涨了二十来倍…… 比特币就是这样的，越折腾越少 —— 这是定律。至于这些比特币将来怎么办？2013 年的时候，我在北京车库咖啡的一场演讲里提到过我的想法： 1202 | 1203 | > 持有比特币的好处之一很可能是“不用费心写遗嘱了”…… 到最后，我走了，私钥就等于销毁了…… 那么，这就意味着说，“流通量”少了一部分，也就是说，我所有的比特币价值，被“按比例均分”给了那些持有比特币的人，不管他是谁，不管他是好人还是坏人…… 这是什么？这就是“大爱”。 1204 | 1205 | 最近几年，我的糖尿病越来越严重，2009 年被发现的时候，就已经是胰脏衰竭状态…… 所以，我的寿命本来就比正常人短。“首富”，有啥意思呢？更何况是别人安在我脑袋上的一个虚名…… 很多人误解我了，以为我很在乎他们以为我在乎的东西 —— 虽然，我在乎的肯定是别的什么。 1206 | 1207 | ### 2. INBlockchain 的开源区块链投资原则 1208 | 1209 | 做早期投资很难，新入场的交易者不宜参与这个活动，无论听说谁谁谁因此赚了多少钱。然而，当然不是不能学。以下是“INBlockchain (INB) 的开源区块链投资原则”，不妨当作自己学习、参考的框架。 1210 | 1211 | 不过，有义务提醒你，有另外一个特简单的原则可以瞬间上手： 1212 | 1213 | > - 熊市里你可以随便买买买！ 1214 | > - 牛市一段时间之后要开始请慎重慎重再慎重…… 1215 | 1216 | #### 1. 区块链是什么？ 1217 | 1218 | 区块链指的是一种公开的，由去中心化网络共同维护的账务系统，提供开放的、不可篡改的底层数据服务。 1219 | 1220 | #### 2. 比特币是什么？ 1221 | 1222 | “比特币”这个概念，可以有多重的理解 —— 这也是为什么人们感到迷惑，或者相互之间很难达成一致理解的根本原因。 1223 | 1224 | 首先，比特币是世界上第一个，也是迄今为止最成功的**区块链应用**。 1225 | 1226 | 其次，比特币是一家**世界银行**，只不过它不属于任何权威管辖，它是由一个去中心化网络构成的。 1227 | 1228 | 另外，这家叫做比特币的，去中心化的世界银行，发行了一个**货币**，恰好也叫“比特币”。有些人更喜欢使用相对小心的说法，把这个货币指称为 BTC，而不是“比特币”（Bitcoin）。 1229 | 1230 | 最后，即便在比特币横空出世的八九年之后，也很少有人意识到比特币（或者 BTC） 其实也可以被理解为这家叫做比特币的去中心化的世界银行的**股票**。 1231 | 1232 | #### 3. 什么是山寨币？ 1233 | 1234 | 在比特币出现之后，前后有几千种加密货币被发行。尽管它们中的绝大多数早已灭绝，但仍然有少数依然不仅活着，还活得相当不错。比如，[莱特币](https://litecoin.com/)，就是一个著名的山寨币，另外，[狗币](http://dogecoin.com/)也算是一个著名的例子。 1235 | 1236 | 刚开始的时候，许多人认为那些加密货币只不过是“山寨货”，根本就没有真正的价值。后来，见证了那些在他们眼里毫无价值的东西不仅长存而且还不断升值之后，人们开始使用另外一些概念，比如“竞争币”。也许这世界需要不止一家“世界银行”罢？谁知道呢？又，谁在乎呢…… 1237 | 1238 | 我是这么想的： 1239 | 1240 | > 在市场上，人们买入的价值有两种：“**真正的价值**”和“**以为的价值**”。有个事实不可否认：对于那些买入“以为的价值”的人来说，那些东西和“真正的价值”看起来是一模一样的。 1241 | 1242 | #### 4. 什么是 MBA 币？ 1243 | 1244 | MBA 是我杜撰的一个缩写，代表 **M**eaningful **B**lockchain **A**pplications (MBA)，即，有意义的区块链应用。所谓的“有意义”，是指这些区块链应用在尝试着解决比特币实际上没有解决的问题。（比特币已经解决过的，就无需再解决一遍了嘛！） 1245 | 1246 | 坦白说，我个人认为山寨币并没有解决任何比特币没有解决的问题。我希望（注意，不是“相信”），最终，这世界其实只需要一个世界银行。 1247 | 1248 | 事实上，这个世界需要更多的区块链应用。也许世界上第二个 MBA 币是 [Namecoin](https://namecoin.org/)，一个去中心化的域名服务系统。[以太坊](https://www.ethereum.org/)是另外一个成功的 MBA，使用区块链技术提供一系列的功能，包括智能合约。 1249 | 1250 | 迄今为止，许多 MBA 已经运行超过 12 个月，有一些还跑得相当不错。比如，*Sia*，简单讲，就是提供了一个基于区块链技术的，去中心化的类 Dropbox 服务。*Steemit* 是另外一个新晋选手，用区块链技术颠覆了版权领域的商业模式。 1251 | 1252 | #### 5. 趋势是什么？ 1253 | 1254 | 在过去的几年里，比特币一直在主导整个区块链世界，流通市值也是最大、占比最高的。然而，到了 2017 年 4 月份，比特币的市值主导地位已经下降至 52%，尽管它的币值与其它区块链资产一样在不断升值。 1255 | 1256 | 这是个重要的信号。区块链世界不再是一块儿地上长着一棵树，它已经是一整个森林了。如若果真如此，那么下面的预测大抵上应该是正确的： 1257 | 1258 | > 在未来，**比特币主导地位**将不断下降，甚至可能低至 5% 以下。 1259 | 1260 | #### 6. 过去我们都做了什么？ 1261 | 1262 | 我个人持有很多比特币。既然我认为比特币是这家世界银行的股份，你就很容易理解为什么我尽量不去消耗我的比特币了。 1263 | 1264 | 2014 年之前，我投资了[比特股](https://bitshares.org/)，[云币网](https://yunbi.com/)，并且自己长期维护一个项目，[比特沙](http://bitcoinsand.com/)，一个比特币银行。从 2015 年最后一个季度开始，我和我的团队开始批量投资 MBA 项目，不过，我们长期遵守一个相对比较苛刻的投资原则。我们前后投资了 *Sia*, *Steemit*, *Zcash*, *QTUM*, *EOS* 等许多项目。通常情况下，我们会同时投资创业团队的股权以及他们所发行的区块链资产。目前，我们正在积极参与全球的区块链项目投资。 1265 | 1266 | #### 7. 我为什么要把我们的投资原则开源？ 1267 | 1268 | 投资对每个个体来说，也许是最危险的活动，因为这之中所需要的所有一切都不可能是靠基因遗传过来的。 1269 | 1270 | 每一次真正的创新出现的时候，一定紧随着大量的骗局。在一个金融创新出现的时候，更是如此。 1271 | 1272 | 投资区块链创业公司或他们所发行的区块链资产，是极其危险的，因为绝大多数人之所以被吸引，是因为那传闻中的极大回报，而不是因为他们真正理解那些区块链应用所能够创造的价值。 1273 | 1274 | 我们希望能通过开源我们的投资原则保护我们自己。即便是往好了说，这个利他行为也只不过是出于私心：骗局越少，我们越安全。 1275 | 1276 | #### 8. 原则 1277 | 1278 | 有时候，阐述原则远不如问一些简单却又准确的问题来得容易。通过不断挣扎着为那些恰当的问题寻找绝对的答案，我们就自然而然地遵守了那些原则。以下是一些我们在决定是否投资之前反复深入向自己提问的问题： 1279 | 1280 | > - 这世界真的需要这东西吗？ 1281 | > - 它解决了什么原本没有被解决的问题？ 1282 | > - 去中心化在这件事儿上真的必要吗？ 1283 | > - 它真的必须账务公开吗？ 1284 | > - 账务公开的存在真的会提高它的效率吗？ 1285 | > - 它在多大程度上更接近一个 **DAC** (Decentralized autonomous corporation， 去中心化自治公司)？ 1286 | > - 如果我们决定投资，那么我们应该用我们资金的多大比例去投资？ 1287 | 1288 | 就这些了。最简单的问题需要最艰难的思考才能找到更准确更实在的答案。 1289 | 1290 | 1291 | 1292 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /The-Self-Cultivation-of-Leeks-en.md: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 | # The Self-Cultivation of Leeks 2 | 3 | by *Li Xiaolai* 4 | 5 | English Translation: *John Gordon* 6 | 7 | > https://github.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks 8 | 9 | ----- 10 | 11 | * [Preface](#preface) 12 | * [1. Who are the “leeks” that they are really referring to?](#1-who-are-the-leeks-that-they-are-really-referring-to) 13 | * [2. Where the fate of “leeks” begins…](#2-where-the-fate-of-leeks-begins) 14 | * [3. “Leeks” only have a future if they mend the pen after having lost sheep…](#3-leeks-only-have-a-future-if-they-mend-the-pen-after-having-lost-sheep) 15 | * [4. The most important thing ability that traders should have…](#4-the-most-important-thing-ability-that-traders-should-have) 16 | * [5. An idea for breaking free of the fate of a “leek”…](#5-an-idea-for-breaking-free-of-the-fate-of-a-leek) 17 | * [6. The fundamental reason why “leeks” lack manners…](#6-the-fundamental-reason-why-leeks-lack-manners) 18 | * [7. Who said “leeks” don’t care about finding finding value…](#7-who-said-leeks-dont-care-about-finding-finding-value) 19 | * [8. “Leeks” don’t lack patience, they lack strength…](#8-leeks-dont-lack-patience-they-lack-strength) 20 | * [9. Those who like to take risks are always “leeks” in the end…](#9-those-who-like-to-take-risks-are-always-leeks-in-the-end) 21 | * [10. What’s even scarier is takings risks without taking into account the costs…](#10-whats-even-scarier-is-takings-risks-without-taking-into-account-the-costs) 22 | * [11. What’s really the best way to set a stop-loss line…](#11-whats-really-the-best-way-to-set-a-stop-loss-line) 23 | * [12. Frequency is the factor that decides everything…](#12-frequency-is-the-factor-that-decides-everything) 24 | * [13. Who’s really cutting whose leeks in the end…](#13-whos-really-cutting-whose-leeks-in-the-end) 25 | * [14. If only I’d bought here or there…](#14-if-only-id-bought-here-or-there) 26 | * [15. People become stupid in the same way they become bad…](#15-people-become-stupid-in-the-same-way-they-become-bad) 27 | * [16. The correct way to increase risk/reward ratio…](#16-the-correct-way-to-increase-riskreward-ratio) 28 | * [17. Actually, not everyone can do early stage…](#17-actually-not-everyone-can-do-early-stage) 29 | * [18. Project analysis really isn’t what you need to learn…](#18-project-analysis-really-isnt-what-you-need-to-learn) 30 | * [19. Leeks don’t have lives, or even sex lives…](#19-leeks-dont-have-lives-or-even-sex-lives) 31 | * [20. Loneliness is the most valuable trait of successful traders…](#20-loneliness-is-the-most-valuable-trait-of-successful-traders) 32 | * [21. In addition to life you must also have work and study…](#21-in-addition-to-life-you-must-also-have-work-and-study) 33 | * [22. Know cycles, recognize cycles, and handle cycles…](#22-know-cycles-recognize-cycles-and-handle-cycles) 34 | * [Conclusion](#conclusion) 35 | * [Appendix](#appendix) 36 | * [1. Li Xiaolai was never Bitcoin’s “Richest Person”…](#1-li-xiaolai-was-never-bitcoins-richest-person) 37 | * [2. INBlockchain’s Open Source Blockchain Investing Principles](#2-inblockchains-open-source-blockchain-investing-principles) 38 | * [1. What is a blockchain?](#1-what-is-a-blockchain) 39 | * [2. What is Bitcoin?](#2-what-is-bitcoin) 40 | * [3. What is an altcoin?](#3-what-is-an-altcoin) 41 | * [4. What are MBAcoins?](#4-what-are-mbacoins) 42 | * [5. What is the trend?](#5-what-is-the-trend) 43 | * [6. What have we done in the past?](#6-what-have-we-done-in-the-past) 44 | * [7. Why open-source my investing principles?](#7-why-open-source-my-investing-principles) 45 | * [8. Principles](#8-principles) 46 | 47 | ----- 48 | 49 | ##Preface 50 | 51 | This pamphlet was finally titled *The Self-Cultivation of Leeks*, and there was really nothing I could do about it. “**Leeks**” was never a word that I used to use, but it’s in the title of the book. Why? 52 | 53 | A private conversation that I had was recorded, which was later leaked. In the recording, the person who I was talking with mentioned “leeks” several times, but I never even used the word at all, let alone mention “**cutting leeks**”. 54 | 55 | But quite a few of the articles that spread like crazy online used sensational headlines, and it turned into *Li Xiaolai who was “cutting leeks”*. This was probably because the people who wrote those articles didn’t even listen to the full recording at all. Maybe they used the so-called transcript that was spread online and completely misinterpreted what I said, or maybe they put on me what the other person said. In these written descriptions, Li Xiaolai became a “public enemy”, and “Li Xiaolai’s behavior”, according to some of the articles, became “confirmation of long-term suspicions held by outsiders about the dark side of blockchain”. But, this wasn’t the truth. What was the truth? 56 | 57 | The truth is, Li Xiaolai never used the word “leeks”. Over the past ten-plus years, those who have read my writings, listened to my lectures, or read my books all know that I have a habit: 58 | 59 | > **I’m always constantly refining my concepts.** 60 | 61 | Li Xiaolai never uses concepts that he believes “have no reason to exist”. Before this, “leeks” was one of these concepts. What is a leek? So if you make money you’re a “market manipulator”, and you lose money you’re a “leek”? If this is our understanding, then our concepts are too confusing. Does this mean that a novice is always a “leek”? Novices have a small probability of making money, and since we’re referring to the same group, what is the reason for using two concepts other than it being fun? Then what is really the definition of “leek”? 62 | 63 | Before being clear about what a concept really means, I will not put it in my mind, much less use it. So, in that leaked recording of more than fifty minutes, I didn’t even use the word “leek” once, much less the phrase “cutting leeks”. 64 | 65 | After thinking it through, the Internet has nothing against Li Xiaolai as a person. It doesn’t intentionally “record everything without regard to truth or falsity or good or evil and in a way that is difficult to truly alter”, that’s just what it is. It’s even-handed, just like the concept of “blockchain” that we are so enchanted with, or the concept of “time” that I have been enchanted with all of my life. 66 | 67 | So what can I do? After thinking it through, I can write a pamphlet like this, writing down what I know, and what I know to be true. Also, I can purposely use this malicious title, and let more valuable thinking and truth spread more widely. 68 | 69 | For readers that like this content, I have one request: 70 | 71 | > If you feel like Li Xiaolai’s thinking in this book is helpful to you, then please post and share it everywhere. 72 | 73 | Please note: don’t just read it and share it yourself; also repost and reprint it “everywhere”. Also, use the title, *The Self-Cultivation of Leeks*! Thank you! 74 | 75 | I thought of these originally more appropriate names: 76 | 77 | > - A Guide for Leeks to Avoid Getting Cut 78 | > - The Leek and the Sickle 79 | > - How Baby Leeks Can Grow 80 | > - Guide to Essential Knowledge for New Leeks 81 | > - Leeks Can Also Be Like Buddha (Stoic*) 82 | > - … 83 | 84 | But, in the end, I thought that a self-mocking title with “**leeks**” in it would bring more traffic… 85 | 86 | Also, in the content that follows, I won’t avoid using the word *dumbass*. Please forgive me! 87 | 88 | > **Warning** 89 | > 90 | > If you don’t have “*the ability to read a full document without skipping a word*”, I recommend you stop reading… Because while the content that follows looks simple and clear, for those who have acquired the reading disabilities of “habitually ignoring large swaths of text” and “habitually combining partial bits of content”, it will be too easy to produce strange alternate meanings. 91 | 92 | ## 1. Who are the “leeks” that they are really referring to? 93 | 94 | Are you really a leek? It’s really hard to say. Because very few people can clearly describe what the precise definition of “leek” actually is. However, from the way that people often use it in sentences, we can tell that **“leek” usually refers to individual investors with limited power and resources in the markets**. For instance, “I am a new leek”, or “they are all old leeks”. On the other side of leeks are the **“big players”**, which refers to large investors with extensive resources in markets. 95 | 96 | In markets, people make money, and people lose money… But, usually, people have the impression that “leeks” lose money most of the time, while it seems like “big players” always make money, because they “must” have lots of methods of “cutting leeks” that other people don’t know about… 97 | 98 | Some words are often used together in set combinations. The existence of certain combinations show that people are generally able to understand those combinations, and that they exist in the real world. For instance, before “good person”, you might use “strong” or “fragile”. But some other combinations almost never exist, because in people’s understanding they don’t exist in the real world. For instance, it would be difficult for the adjective before “scoundrel” to be “kind-hearted”. 99 | 100 | The words that are combined with “leeks” are “cut” or “be cut”. The action of “cutting” in theory should be carried out by the adversary (the so-called “big player”), so “leeks” are often “being cut” … You almost never hear people use this kind of sentence: “*I’m a leek and I cut the ‘big players’!*” If someone actually says this, you can be almost sure that they are exaggerating. 101 | 102 | As time passes, some people merely change from “new leeks” to “old leeks”. That is to say, they still don’t make money, and they still are “cut”… But there are others who, despite having once been “new leeks”, are later no longer “leeks”. Sometimes they say, “I’m also an old leek”, but they are just joking or being modest… Why? Because in the common way of thinking, even if someone is not a “big player”, as long as they made money they are no longer a “true leek”. 103 | 104 | So, from the normal contexts that people use, we can come up with a basically precise definition: 105 | 106 | > A so-called “leek” is an individual investor with limited resources who either fails to make money or loses money in the market. 107 | 108 | Looking at it this way, the task of a “leek” who wants to become a “non-leek” (not necessarily a “whale” or a “big player”) is quite simple: 109 | 110 | > Making money… 111 | 112 | As long as you make money, you can seemingly humbly say: 113 | 114 | > … Actually, I’m just an old leek! 115 | 116 | When you talk like this, you are very kind, very considerate, and you understand how to take care of the feelings of others. Those who haven’t made money, when they see someone like you who has made money, will feel even more devastated if you don’t use this “fake” language to comfort their weak hearts. From another perspective, you are not only kind and considerate, you are also very good at protecting yourself. Because if you don’t have this “falseness”, there will really be a lot of people who hate you, or even want to get rid of you — just like what Li Xiaolai has faced for a long time. 117 | 118 | Even though this definition of “leek” doesn’t really satisfy people with its accuracy, let’s make do with it for a while. 119 | 120 | Also, let’s add a common feature of so-called “leeks”: 121 | 122 | > They severely lack basic reading ability. They are the kind of people who buy things but have never read a manual in their lives. They are the kind of people who, no matter what they get, always ask somebody else how to use it… It’s so common, right? 123 | 124 | ## 2. Where the fate of “leeks” begins… 125 | 126 | “Leeks” are “leeks” mostly due to the one common reason: 127 | 128 | > As soon as they enter the market they “buy, buy, buy”! 129 | 130 | In early March of 2011, when I saw the word **Bitcoin** on Twitter for the first time, I was shocked by it nearly every day… When I saw the first news headline, it said that in February its price had just exceed 1 USD! Then, after just a few days, the price was already 1.50… By the time I had my account set up and started to take action in April, it was already over 4 dollars… Then I started to buy, buy, buy, and by the time I completed the purchase of my first 2,100 coins, the average price had reached 6 USD… and it was still rising! Then, by the beginning of June, it reached a peak of 32 USD! I’d only had it in my hands for that long! Just a little more than a month, and I had more than 5x returns! 131 | 132 | So, just like this, I became one of the “leeks” that people so often talk about. Why? It took more than 20 months for those “leeks” who “bought the peak”, including myself, to finally "cut our losses”. In the meantime, there was a vicious downturn, and at the lowest point the price of Bitcoin even dropped below 1 USD, which for those “leeks” who bought bitcoin at the peak was a drop of 97%! 133 | 134 | Yes! I was an individual investor. I bought, bought, bought as soon as I entered the market, and then my assets were continually dropping, so I was a “leek”. 135 | 136 | The market has some exasperating laws, such as: 137 | 138 | > As soon as you need to use cash, the market will fall! 139 | 140 | It seems like there is no logic to support this, so you don’t have to believe it, but you will definitely experience the magic of this law. 141 | 142 | For all novices, this law never changes: 143 | 144 | > - As soon as you buy, the price will fall; 145 | > - As soon as you sell, the price will rise… 146 | It’s simply infuriating! 147 | 148 | So why does this “bizarre” situation occur? Because the fundamental reason for the end to a certain set of market conditions is “new capital drying up”. In other words, when middle-aged women who sell tea eggs on the street start talking about stocks, the stock market’s “new capital” is on the verge of drying up… Think about it! “When even you, who is not related in any way, know about it and want to rush in and make money”, then the market conditions have probably reached their end, right? 149 | 150 | So, in May of 2013, when Li Xiaolai, who was an outsider not related in any way, learned about Bitcoin from the news and started to continuously buy, that set of bitcoin market conditions had reached its end. Reached! Its! End! So, just one month later, it entered a long bear market. 151 | 152 | So, for novices, there are two sentences that are very important. The first sentence is a statement that is always correct. The second sentence is a suggestion that all veterans wish someone had given them way back then (if only someone had taught it to me back then!): 153 | 154 | > - If even you start to enter the market, the bull market is about to end… 155 | > - You should first observe, and buy nothing… **Once the bear market arrives, wait until everyone starts calling each other names, and then start to buy, buy, buy!** 156 | 157 | Actually, making mistakes as soon as you start is not a rare occurrence. To the contrary, it’s very common! Think about it, even our lives aren’t very serious… Cui Jian made fun of this in a song: 158 | 159 | > (Suddenly an opportunity arose, empty without a purpose) — Just like when the girl gave birth to us, we didn’t say we agreed… 160 | 161 | Our lives are full of absurdity, so clearly recognizing that we live in an absurd world is extremely practical and helpful for our healthy development. 162 | 163 | ## 3. “Leeks” only have a future if they mend the pen after having lost sheep… 164 | 165 | I guess that you’re like me, and you didn’t have someone to share those two important sentences with you when you entered the market. So, your lot was just like mine, and after a short period of excitement you found yourself in an awkward situation that it seemed would forever be difficult to reverse. 166 | 167 | **Trading is one of the most natural and common behaviors in human society.** Unfortunately — and I don’t know why — almost all countries in the world take it as a given that it isn’t a required course in general and higher education. So generation after generation are fated to mend the pen after having lost sheep. 168 | 169 | Sadly, lots of “leeks” only have one sheep, and they never had a pen, so after their sheep was lost it was lost, and they never had a chance to fix the pen… 170 | 171 | So you were like me, and as soon as you entered the market you made a big mistake. You didn’t know that the bull market was about to end, and you excitedly “bought, bought, bought” without any regard for the fact that the price was pumped with the fattening hormones of the bull market. You saw the profits in front of you and it even seemed like your IQ was soaring… And then, after that, you were stuck… What should you do? 172 | 173 | You look all around, and you understand. There is a mistake even more horrible than “buy, buy, buy, as soon as you enter the market”. What is it? It’s this: 174 | 175 | > Spend all of your money as soon as you enter the market! 176 | 177 | Of course, there is something more horrible, which is to “spend all of the money you **borrowed** as soon as you enter the market!” The poorer someone is, the stronger their desire to make money, so they often don’t hesitate to make reckless moves. In this way many novices dig holes for themselves and put on the noose. They not only spend all of the little money they have in the market, they also “leverage”, and borrow money to “invest”… And the result? It’s crushing. 178 | 179 | If your luck is good enough, then you’ll be like me and have a chance to redeem yourself: 180 | 181 | > Even though you’re stuck, you still have money that you can slowly spend, so later, in a long bear market, you still have a chance to reduce your costs and build up a position… 182 | 183 | So, “mending the pen after after the sheep is lost” has some prerequisites: 184 | 185 | > - You didn’t only have the sheep that you lost; 186 | > - It’s best if you have a lot more sheep aside from that one; 187 | > - Because you have a lot of sheep, you’ve made a “sheep pen” in the past; 188 | > - So, even though the “sheep is lost”, you still have a chance to “mend the pen”; 189 | > - So, once the “pen” is mended, you can manage more sheep; 190 | > - So, if in the beginning you lose one or two sheep, in the end it seems you don’t really care… 191 | 192 | So, what’s the most important thing for “leeks” who have “mended the pen after losing the sheep” to do? It’s quite simple: 193 | 194 | > - If they still have money, slowly build their position… 195 | > - If they don’t have enough money, work as hard as they can to earn money *outside of the market*… 196 | 197 | ## 4. The most important thing ability that traders should have… 198 | 199 | The way I see it, it’s hard to find a place in the world that requires the ability to learn more than trading markets. The success of almost any trade can be finally traced back to the ability to learn. Almost all badass traders are great learners and researchers. 200 | 201 | People often use long-term and short-term to distinguish between “*speculation*” and “*investment*”, but this is very superficial. Speculation can also be long-term, just like investment can also be short-term. People see speculation as having a negative connotation, while investment as having a positive one, but this is also a common mistake and a superficial point of view. Which would you say would be better, a “failed investment” or a “successful speculation”? So, I won’t use concepts that are defined by “long-term” or “short-term”, whether for “speculation” or “investment”. 202 | 203 | I personally distinguish between speculation and investment in this way: 204 | 205 | > **Speculators refuse to learn, and investors are good at learning.** 206 | 207 | Before trading, research diligently and study deeply. After trading, whether you won or lost, you must review and summarize, correcting your ideas and thinking in order to improve your next decision. People who do this are investors in my eyes, even if they “enter and exit quickly”. 208 | 209 | What about “leeks”? The don’t study, they don’t research, they only see what is under their nose, they blame everything but themselves… Whether or not people like this have money, whether or not they have a high IQ, they are all “failed speculators” in my eyes, and they are true dumbasses. 210 | 211 | Since I started in 2011, seven years have passed in a flash, and I’ve seen countless people go crazy, whether it be for bitcoin or blockchain. But how many people have actually read the bitcoin whitepaper? And how many people have not only read it, but read it multiple times, and periodically bring it out to read it again? Most people who have not made money in bitcoin really can’t blame bitcoin, they can only blame themselves. Why? Because they don’t even know what the thing that they are trading really is… 212 | 213 | If you discover that you need to consult others, or “seek out gossip” before you’re able to decide on the direction of a trade, then that means you are one of those so-called “leeks” — because you don’t understand the trade you’re making at all. If in spite of this you don’t go and learn and research on your own, and don’t want to draw a conclusion of your own, then you are in fact an “uncultivated leek”. 214 | 215 | In the phrase “mend the pen after the sheep is lost”, “pen” in the end actually refers to your “opinion bank”, “knowledge bank”, and “decision-making apparatus”. 216 | 217 | “Entering at the tail end of the bull market” is the fate of most people, so there’s nothing to complain about, and because it’s “established fact”, there’s no way to change it. However, entering the market in ignorance, and then leaving the market in ignorance, is the most tragic ending. Having entering the market in ignorance, but — precisely because of experiencing the sad results of ignorance — working like hell to become someone with knowledge — this is the wise choice. It’s not only wise, it is the choice of a strong person. 218 | 219 | **Be a strong person.** This is the belief of all excellent traders. It is also an idea that “novices” and “new leeks” must establish. Only if they do this can they avoid “still being a leek” in the future. 220 | 221 | What can you do in a bear market besides making money out of the market and building up positions? **Study**! At least start practicing your ability to learn. 222 | 223 | Not sure what to learn? Keep reading, and read diligently, without skipping a word. Read repeatedly, and at least you’ll learn some ways of thinking and conclusions that you were unable to use before. In that way, you’ll change your way of thinking… Thinking brings decisions, decisions bring action, and action changes fates. This is the truth. 224 | 225 | ## 5. An idea for breaking free of the fate of a “leek”… 226 | 227 | Everyone has to clearly explain their own bitter experiences to themselves — not an explanation for others, but an explanation for themselves. This is why people often “demand an explanation”. If they can’t explain their bitter experiences to themselves, it’s very, very uncomfortable. 228 | 229 | In a hospital, everyone who contracts a terminal illness must go through a painful period of “self-explanation”. “Why am I the one who got sick?!” This is an incredibly painful and uncomfortable self-interrogation. Maybe it’s clearly just a matter of chance, but “Why me?” reflects the unwillingness to accept of every unfortunate one. 230 | 231 | In middle school, you may have observed this phenomenon. There are some ugly girls in class, and their explanation for “having never received any love letter” is this: “I’m not that type of person! Not like those vixens…” Observers see things for what they are, but these people still are confident in their own explanation. However, while it does make them feel good, are there really no side effects to this kind of explanation? In fact, there are many, many side effects. For instance, aside from making them inauthentic, in order to make this twisted explanation stand up, they will not hesitate to use any means to torment and frame those whom they call “vixens”. Even though those “vixens” made no mistake other than being pretty… Of course, even worse — and maybe they never know it — is that it is exactly their actual twistedness that will ensure that the partner they find in the future is also twisted. 232 | 233 | What is the greatest common understanding of “leeks”? 234 | 235 | According to my observations, all leeks endorse an idea that is actually mistaken: 236 | 237 | > So-called trading is a “**zero-sum game**”. 238 | 239 | That is to say, they believe that the money they earned is money lost by others. Or, in other words, any amount of money that they lose has definitely been earned by someone else. 240 | 241 | This is very contradictory. When these “leeks” are angrily denouncing “the cutters of leeks”, what is the basic thing that they are angry about? It seems as if what they really hate isn’t the “cutting of leeks” that they speak of; what they really hate, logically, can only be “why am I not the one cutting leeks?!” If they had a chance to “cut leeks”, they wouldn’t think twice, because they have decided that it is a “zero-sum game”. So everyone is a leek, and everyone has the same fate: either be a leek and get cut, or cut the leeks of others… 242 | 243 | Where is their mistake? 244 | 245 | **They completely ignored the greatest force of the market: market cycles, or — to use more common language — alternating bull and bear markets.** 246 | 247 | In a bull market, most people make money, and the amount lost by a few pales in comparison to the amount made by so many. So which leek was cut? In a bear market, most people lose money, and the amount lost in aggregate by those people is countless times more than the amount made by the few. Who is cutting leeks? 248 | 249 | **So, this is not at all a “zero-sum game”!** 250 | 251 | In fact, in the tail end of a bull market, people buy at a price that is fattened by hormones, no matter who they are. In the tail end of a bear market, people buy at a starved price, no matter who they are... 252 | 253 | In an open market, no one can point a gun at you and force you to trade, everyone trades by their own will… Then why are people overjoyed when they willingly buy, but later on start to utter cries of anguish? We need an explanation. Yes, we all need to give ourselves a clear explanation, to explain the awkward situations we find ourselves in. 254 | 255 | **Do you want a correct explanation? Or do you want an explanation that makes you feel good?** 256 | 257 | A correct explanation will trigger your subsequent correct choices and actions. An explanation that makes you feel good but is definitely wrong, aside from making you briefly feel good, can do nothing but bring about all sorts of “surprising” side effects, because it is bluntly wrong… Which type of explanation do you really want? 258 | 259 | The correct explanation is quite simple: 260 | 261 | > **We bought at the wrong time.** 262 | 263 | In a bull market, everybody is successful, and even the worst target might continue to rise steeply. In a bear market, everyone is oppressed, and sometimes good assets fall even more steeply… 264 | 265 | **“The wrong timimg”** is the most basic, most reasonable, and most instructive correct explanation, and it may even be the only reasonable explanation. 266 | 267 | Also, when you’re a little bit more mature, you will understand: in the future, you must not participate in any zero-sum games — they are a bigger waste of time than gambling! (You should know that, in reality, fair gambling actually doesn’t exist. In order to preserve fairness, or, using fairness as a means, all casinos have a house spread…) 268 | 269 | ## 6. The fundamental reason why “leeks” lack manners… 270 | 271 | Because “leeks” believe that they are playing a “zero-sum game”, as soon as they enter the market they almost turn into a different species. Observe carefully, as this description has no trace of a joke: 272 | 273 | > Shorts (sellers) and longs (buyers) brush past each other, each silently calling the other a dumbass. 274 | 275 | Why are they destined to call each other “dumbasses”? It’s a zero-sum game, so: 276 | 277 | > - One of the two has to be a dumbass; 278 | > - I’m this smart, so the dumbass can only be you! 279 | 280 | **All manners and cultivation at their core are the result of deep thought, and have nothing to do with the use or non-use of dirty language** — just as we discovered before that using the presence of or lack of study as a more precise way to distinguish between speculators and investors. 281 | 282 | If someone thinks incorrectly, or if the direction of their thought is incorrect, then in an instant they will truly become a vulgar person. People who participate in truly zero-sum games depend on “I am stronger than my opponent”. If they win they can do whatever they want, but “if they lose they’ve got to admit defeat”. However, those who treat non-zero-sum games as zero-sum games have no idea that they’ve made a mistake from the start, so their end can almost only be like this: 283 | 284 | > - Originally they had a 50% chance of winning; 285 | > - But they misunderstood, so their chance of losing goes way up; 286 | > - Their explanation for winning or losing is completely wrong; 287 | > - Their explanation was wrong, so their next judgement will be wrong; 288 | > - Then their chances of winning or losing the next time are also warped; 289 | > - The so-called fate of leeks is cast in this way; 290 | > - Therefore, in the end leeks all become full of complaints — complaints that they have produced for themselves… 291 | 292 | What is the truth? 293 | 294 | Transactions are always completed by two parties. Even if a buyer wants to buy, they can’t buy if there is no seller, no matter what the price is. Conversely, sellers are the same, they can’t sell if there are no buyers, no matter what the price is. 295 | 296 | At any given time, if traders have completely identical thinking, judgement, needs, and conclusions, it is impossible for there to be a trade. **At their core, all trades are the result of differences in thinking.** That is to say, traders must find someone who has different or even opposite conclusions in order to complete a trade, or else all they can do is “hang out their order”, and wait for someone with different conclusions to come along. 297 | 298 | So once a trade is completed, it makes sense that both parties should be grateful to each other. Why are they trading insults? Even if they’re not grateful, they should at least say thank you, right? So people who think deeply have a natural and sincere politeness: 299 | 300 | > Shorts (sellers) and longs (buyers) brush past each other and **wish each other all the best**. 301 | 302 | We all live in such a beautiful world, but just because of one small misstep leeks live in a dark corner that they have created for themselves. It’s quite a spectacle! 303 | 304 | A psychologist came to this conclusion in a paper: there are no bad people in this world, only *good* people, *stupid* people and *sick* people. In my view, a lot of sickness comes from stupidity. Back when I read this paper, all of a sudden I felt that the world had “become” brighter! 305 | 306 | ## 7. Who said “leeks” don’t care about finding value… 307 | 308 | Be very careful about assuming that those who are talking about “value investing” are those who act and make judgements in accordance with “value investing”. If you’re often confused by superficial representations, then your trading results can only be very poor. 309 | 310 | Successful traders are always very few. The common feature that the few have in common is that **they are not moved by superficial representations, but like to investigate the underlying essence of those representations.** 311 | 312 | The reason why most people are talking about “value investing” is because they are already “stuck” in their positions — this is the essence of the situation. This is also the core reason why so many people like to talk about value investing — because, as we already know, most people are enticed to enter the market at the end of the bull market and the beginning of the bear market; they “buy, buy, buy” as soon as they enter, and the big bear that follows squashes many people to death with each step. 313 | 314 | This is a very interesting phenomenon: 315 | 316 | > **No one on this earth doesn’t learn.** 317 | 318 | Everybody is learning! Even an idiot is always learning… It’s just that not all learning is the same. Because the direction and methods of their learning have natural defects, what they “learn” is useless, or even harmful. 319 | 320 | “Thoroughly research where the value is and then decide whether to buy or sell” and “throw all caution to the wind and trade right away and then research after you’ve discovered you’re wrong” obviously have a world of difference between them, and the results they bring about are also poles apart. 321 | 322 | This is really an interesting phenomenon, because **cleverness and stupidity are, unexpectedly, not determined by inherent factors, but instead determined merely by “sequence”**… Just like in chess, what is done first and what is done later is the final determinant of winning and losing — both sides have the same number of pieces, and the board is symmetrical, but in the end there is winning and losing. What is it decided by? Unexpectedly, it is merely sequence. Of course, “sequence” has a lot of other names, such as “tactics”. 323 | 324 | If your so-called “fate” is that you traded at the wrong time, then the way to fix this is definitely not to go “looking for value”… Every lock has its own key, and the vast majority of people don’t have a master key. Even if you’re impatient you should never rashly seek medical advice — this is common sense. 325 | 326 | If you made a trading decision at **the wrong timing**, then what is the correct course of action? 327 | 328 | It’s easy: 329 | 330 | > **Wait for the next correct moment of opportunity!** 331 | 332 | Overly simple answers are often overlooked, because, just as people always assume that major events are controlled by vast conspiracies, they also don’t believe that a big thing like “making money” could have such a surprisingly simple answer. 333 | 334 | In the face of **a correct timing**, even a treasure such as “value” seems frail and powerless. So observe carefully: those who blindly believe in value investing can only understand their mistake and quietly pay for their incorrect decisions. 335 | 336 | If you’ve never thought of this before, there is no need to feel inferior; if one needed to feel inferior because of this type of thing, I would have killed myself long ago — because it was only after several years in the market that I started to understand the flaw of “value investing”: 337 | 338 | > Even though it is correct, it can only explain a small part of the world. 339 | 340 | ## 8. “Leeks” don’t lack patience, they lack strength… 341 | 342 | So-called “leeks who have been cut out of the market” don’t actually leave the market because they lack patience. Just as you saw before, even an idiot is naturally constantly learning. Any person, as long as the conditions are appropriate, has enough patience — this is a fact. 343 | 344 | Lacking patience is merely a superficial representation. So what’s the essence of the situation? **Lacking strength**. 345 | 346 | If two people are betting on flipping coins, with a bet of 10,000 RMB each time, and the coin is a perfect coin, so nobody can possibly cheat… Then let me ask you, what decides who wins in the end? 347 | 348 | This isn’t a brain twister, but you might think that this questions has some problems with it: 349 | 350 | > - It’s clearly a 50/50 chance, how is there a winner?! 351 | > - Since there’s no winner, how can we talk about “deciding who wins”? 352 | 353 | This is the best example, and it can prove that the vast majority of people can only see the superficial representation and cannot observe the essence. 354 | 355 | In the end there almost certainly will be a winner — if the two people have different financial resources. The chance is 50/50, but despite the fact that the overall chance is 50/50, it won’t be “this time is heads, this time is tales, and this cycle continues”… In an extreme situation, one participant might only have 10,000 to bet, so if he loses in the first round he will be eliminated. If you loved to flip coins as a child, you know that in actuality it’s quite common to flip 32 heads (or tails) in a row! If one party has 2-300,000 and the other party only has 30-50,000, then the participant with more money to gamble can win more easily, right? 356 | 357 | So in this type of game, in the end, **it’s not “luck” that decides who wins, but “strength”!** 358 | 359 | It’s basically the same principle: “leeks” leave the market not because they lack patience, but because they lack strength. If the “amount that would inevitably get trapped” when they entered the market actually only made up a small portion of their assets, would they “lose patience”? Would they lose their cool over that? Would they become unbearably anxious over that? Would they be extremely ashamed about that? They wouldn’t. It’s more likely that they would be calm and unperturbed. They would be ashamed about their mistake in judgement, but they wouldn’t carry out even more unreasonable behavior due to that embarrassment. 360 | 361 | So there’s only one way to escape the “fate of leeks”: **increase your strength.** 362 | 363 | What does strength refer to in the trading market? There is a clear definition: 364 | 365 | > **Long-term, stable, low-cost cash flow.** 366 | 367 | This is actually quite difficult to obtain, but it’s not that there is no trail to follow. Some people seem to have unlimited money to borrow, others depend on continuously raising money, and I suppose that still others are like me and depend on “the ability to earn money outside the market”. But for most normal people, continuously earning money outside the market might be the only advantageous tactic. 368 | 369 | At the same time, there is another important principle: 370 | 371 | > **Control the position.** 372 | 373 | **Always keep a certain percentage, or at least a certain amount, in cash** — just as you need an oxygen tank when snorkeling, it’s not negotiable. As to how much the percentage should be, or how much the amount should be, there’s no rule, and it totally depends on your own thinking. 374 | 375 | ## 9. Those who like to take risks are always “leeks” in the end… 376 | 377 | In urban legends, taking risks is always jumbled together with “bravery”. This sort of mixing up of concepts might not be too risky in daily life, but in trading markets this sort of mixup is often **deadly**. 378 | 379 | Excellent and successful traders ultimately hate risk. Leeks don’t know this. Just as leeks are mistaken about the awkward explanations that they face, the are completely mistaken in how they explain successful people. They think that outstanding, successful people became successful by taking risks. Their understanding is linear and simplistic: 380 | 381 | > - The market has risk; 382 | > - Therefore, if you want to succeed you must take risks; 383 | > - Conversely, if you don’t take risks you cannot succeed… 384 | 385 | **Wrong! Bluntly wrong!** 386 | 387 | If you want to escape “the fate of leeks”, a concept you must learn is: 388 | 389 | > - Don’t take on risk if you can avoid it… 390 | > - Even if there is a time when risks must be taken, then let the fools take risks while you observe from the sidelines and gain experience. 391 | 392 | The most direct way to gain experience is through your own experience in practice. But when it comes to risk, you must learn as early as possible to observe others taking risks, not through your own experience. 393 | 394 | I had colleague at New Oriental who went to Oxford’s Saïd Business school to get an MBA. After he returned, he told me that in the first class the professor wrote these words on the blackboard: 395 | 396 | > Use other people’s money! 397 | > 398 | > > Note: this sentence comes from the name of a famous book that was published in 1914: Other People’s Money, and How the Bankers Use It. The author was Louis Dembitz Brandeis, and thanks to the internet you can read the book here:[ ](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://archive.org/details/otherpeoplesmone00bran%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1545204283270000&sa=D&ust=1545204283448000&usg=AFQjCNF7lyhialrtA8AeOXNeDWeNHgQa1Q)[https://archive.org/details/otherpeoplesmone00bran](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://archive.org/details/otherpeoplesmone00bran%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1545204283270000&sa=D&ust=1545204283449000&usg=AFQjCNHqeIXpx4_ot6w_-3dVJOzcXwSeww). 399 | 400 | This is a deep and wise admonition. Remember the “long-term, stable, low-cost cash flow” mentioned in the last chapter. So, what graduates from that famous business school begin to cultivate from the first moment is “**the ability to raise funds**”. It’s just that, to avoid people misunderstanding, they also learn a bit of “hypocrisy” to protect themselves and don’t mention it. Isn’t the animal world like this? All animals have some secret methods to protect and hide themselves. 401 | 402 | If I had the chance to open a world-famous business school, I would definitely put this sentence on the walls and make students remember it for the rest of their lives: 403 | 404 | > **Watch other people taking risks!** 405 | 406 | This is more important than “Use other people’s money.” Why? Today, with the global economy having developed rapidly for several decades, it’s no longer that hard to “have a bit of money”, and there are more and bigger opportunities than in the past, so you’re able to do quite a lot of things “using your own money”, and “using other people’s money” is relatively risky… 407 | 408 | But no matter how the economy develops, risk is still risk, and there always must be people to take risks to gain experience… but the person taking the risks doesn’t have to be you. So what do you do? You observe, you summarize, you learn. The bigger the risk is, the more people like you are needed. Actually, the person who takes the risk will ultimately thank you. Why? Sure, they lost money, but because of people like you summarizing their experience, not only did you benefit, but you shared the experience, giving their failure a new meaning. 409 | 410 | It’s very hard to think of the correct conclusion, because sometimes the “correct conclusion” looks so evil, even if at its deepest point it is a bright light. 411 | 412 | There are some other things that are not even “taking risk”, because with risk there’s always a chance for survival. For instance, borrowing money to enter the trading market, or adding leverage, or playing with futures without professional knowledge… These aren’t “taking a risk”, these are simply “courting death”. In the blockchain trading market, this is even more the case. It’s already a hugely volatile (risky) target, so if you add even more risk, isn’t that courting death? 413 | 414 | However, leeks don’t believe this; they refuse to believe it. Even if they’ve already died a violent death, they still believe that “if someone were willing to lend me a little more money… Ha! I could definitely make it all back!” 415 | 416 | **Note** 417 | 418 | > 99% of the time, the content of this chapter will be misunderstood. The ambiguity arises from the phrase “other people”, and it’s usually those who have failed at investing or speculating who “step right up” and misunderstand it. They don’t understand that the “use” in “use other people’s money” refers to “**legally using**” in the field of finance, protected by relevant laws and regulations. Similarly, the “watch” in “watch other people take risks” obviously doesn’t refer to “**watching with ill will**”, but instead refers to rationally observing and learning. 419 | > 420 | > There is some risk in writing this, because before it has been completely explained it is easily misinterpreted as being “politically incorrect… So basically, once I’ve written it I will be condemned, and condemned from every corner. 421 | 422 | ## 10. What’s even scarier is takings risks without taking into account the costs… 423 | 424 | Successful traders, like Einstein’s “God”, don’t play dice games — they avoid things that are purely decided by chance. 425 | 426 | Even if they sometimes accept risk, the risks they accept can only be for decisions in which “the odds of winning exceed 50%”, or, in the best case, “the odds of winning are much better than 50%”. 427 | 428 | Leeks are different. They like taking risks, but they don’t even know how to calculate risk. Yes, risk can be mathematically calculated! But leeks have never calculated it, and they’ve never even thought that they should calculate it. So do you think they can win? If they did win, wouldn’t that violate heavenly principles? 429 | 430 | You’re a novice, not a leek, or at least you don’t want to alway be a leek. So what should you do? 431 | 432 | Learn! 433 | 434 | You don’t want to learn? Is there anything else you can do? Yes — exit the market, and never participate. 435 | 436 | So go ahead and learn, until you’ve turned yourself into a straight A student. 437 | 438 | Somebody borrows money from you — 100 RMB — and tells you that they’re willing to pay you back 110 RMB when the loan is due. What is your **risk/reward** ratio at this time? Your risk is the person disappearing and your losing 100 RMB. Your potential return, if the person returns your money, is having 10 RMB more than you had before. So your risk/reward ratio is 1:0.1, or 10:1. This doesn’t look very attractive at all! 439 | 440 | If the other person told me that they would borrow 100 RMB and return 150 RMB to me the next day, then I would definitely not lend it to them, because these are terms that only a gambling addict who was in a hurry to play Mahjong would propose… I don’t have friends like this! All joking aside, let’s return to the essence. Actually, when you aren’t sure of the creditworthiness of the other party, no matter if your reward is 10%, or 50%, or 200%, your risk is the same: the most you can lose is your principal of 100 RMB. The risk/reward ratio is very different, but this ratio has a very different influence on your state of mind. 441 | 442 | A bit confusing? Don’t worry, in the beginning piling up several layers of simple things seems very complicated and not very intuitive. Reading multiple times is the key to reading any book. 443 | 444 | In the above example, the actual cost comes from the the pressure you feel from the “identical risk” — that you might lose 100 RMB. If it turns out that your monthly income is six figures, then you might even say to the other party, “Forget it, there’s no need to pay me back!” If you’re a poor kid in university who totally depends on support from parents, then 100 RMB might be your meal fee for a whole day. If it happens to be the end of the month, and all you have left is your last 100 RMB, then that cost is completely unbearable for you. 445 | 446 | So you can see that there are many factors to consider in calculating the cost of risk, **but your strength is most important**, followed by risk/reward ratio. See, it’s the same everywhere: strength is most important. 447 | 448 | Let’s switch scenes to trading markets. 449 | 450 | You see a target, X, that has dropped from a high of 26 RMB to 20 RMB, and you guess that it is likely to go back up to 22 RMB, and at that point you can “cash out”. So you use 500 RMB to buy 25 units. So, what is your risk/reward ratio? Shall we calculate it? 451 | 452 | The denominator is your potential return. Once the price has returned to 22 RMB, your total potential return is 50 RMB, while the total amount you have “taken a risk” with is 500 RMB. So your risk/reward ratio is 500:50, or 10:1. How does this ratio look? It’s actually not that great, is it? 453 | 454 | But this calculation actually needs to be improved. Because novices don’t set stop loss lines. Or, to be more precise, **“leeks” don’t have the concept of “stop loss”**. You are different, as you’ve learned and you know you should set stop loss lines, so you set one for yourself: if the price drops to 18 RMB, then you will sell no matter what. 455 | 456 | Now, what is your risk/reward ratio? The denominator is still 50 RMB, but what about the risk? The risk is 500 > - (25*18) = 50. So it’s 50:50, equivalent to 1:1… How is this different from flipping a coin? **Why would you go to a trading market to flip a coin?!** 457 | 458 | Furthermore, this is still different from flipping a coin! Trading markets have fees whether you buy or sell, so if you take trading fees into consideration this trade is worse than flipping a coin and betting on heads or tails! 459 | 460 | The reason that leeks are leeks, and will always be leeks, is that not only do they take risks, they also don’t calculate the costs of those risks. Even more tragic is that they have never even thought that they should make these simple calculations… They also learn, but what they learn is to “seek out gossip”. 461 | 462 | ## 11. What’s really the best way to set a stop-loss line… 463 | 464 | Some leeks have made progress. Soon after they hear that experts have not only a “stop-loss line”, but also a “profit-taking line”, they use the most superficial method to understand the behavior of these experts, and they set a “hard rule” for themselves that is completely possible to follow: 465 | 466 | > Don’t be too greedy! 467 | 468 | So why is this hard rule, which seems to have no problems, actually full of holes? Because the holes are not in the hard rule, but in the fact that all people are greedy, right? Also, why are you entering the trading market? Ask your heart, are you really entering so that you can make enough to buy three bowls of beef noodles every day? 469 | 470 | Truly good suggestions are always actionable. The problem with the so-called “suggestion” of “don’t be too greedy” is that it is basically not actionable. You can think about it, but there’s no way to do it. It doesn’t count if you do it sometimes, because it’s impossible to do it in the long term. 471 | 472 | How should you set a stop-loss line? 473 | 474 | The price volatility of some targets is naturally much more extreme than others. The price volatility of bitcoin is countless times greater than that of the US dollar on foreign exchange markets. During the early days, the price of bitcoin even fell 80% in one hour, or it could rise 500% in an hour… 475 | 476 | You can estimate the “daily volatility” of a trading target. If the daily volatility is 25%, your stop-loss line — in other words, “the biggest loss you can bear” — should be greater than 25% (40%, for example)... Because risk is what you are considering - especialy strong price volatility in trading markets - **"preparing for the worst" is always more prudent than "blind optimism". 477 | 478 | As to where exactly to set the stop-loss line, there are many factors that can play a role. The trader’s personality might even be one of the important factors. The most frustrating thing is that in the moment it is your personality that really decides your behavior. But, when we look back and think about it, your personality in the moment is more likely to have been decided by your long-term behavior. 479 | 480 | At this point, most “leeks” are totally confused — they discover that there are too many factors to consider. When they are summing up the factors they often make mistakes and can’t clear things up, let alone understand the principle and phenomenon of reciprocal causation… 481 | 482 | So they’re all the same: when someone patiently explains the principles to them they quickly grow weary (notice that it’s not that they lack patience, but that they lack brain power). They all say the same thing: “Just tell me whether or not I should buy!” (This is fun: you might as well think about why they don’t ask the opposite: “Just tell me whether or not I should sell!) 483 | 484 | **If you want to avoid the fate of leeks, just train your brain.** A brain isn't a good thing, it's a trained brain that is a good thing - you don't need to just train it, you need to train it correctly, train it well, and train it constantly. 485 | 486 | So what do leeks do? They have learned to set a stop-loss line, but even though this is “progress”, the result is worse than no progress, because they haven’t calculated the stop-loss line at all, and instead completely rely on “leek instinct”. For instance, for a target with a daily trading volatility of 25%, they set their stop-loss line at 10% or 20%… 487 | 488 | The result of doing this is another side effect that to them is completely “unexpected”. Because they have, through their own wishful thinking, lowered the numerator, even a small gain has a “low risk/reward ratio” to them. So all of their trades are “bad business”, but they never know where they made a mistake. In they end, all they can do is be like those people who are superstitious due to ignorance. They don’t see how they have been “cut”, so all they can perceive is that “someone has earned my money” (actually this is a mistaken conclusion)… So they curse the "market manipulators" every day while secretly hoping that they can make friends with a "market manipulator" and even secretly harboring the hope that they can become a "market manipulator" themselves one day… 489 | 490 | Anyway, when setting a stop-loss line, you must not depend on wishful thinking. At least now you know that there is one factor you can count on: 491 | 492 | > **The daily volatility of the trading target.** 493 | 494 | ## 12. Frequency is the factor that decides everything… 495 | 496 | Even though it now seems you’ve understood “how to set a stop-loss line”, ever-worrying you discovers after a while that this is completely abstract, and is once again something that is completely useless. Why? 497 | 498 | Soon you will discover that this “daily volatility” completely depends on what timeframe or scale you are observing. Look at the %K line by the hour, minute, day or month… and you’ll reach different conclusions. So at the very least there is another factor to consider, which is how frequently you make trades. Do you make trades daily? Or are you trading all the time? Maybe you should chose to trade once per quarter? This is not an easy decision, and it also doesn’t have a standard answer. 499 | 500 | Some people are trading every moment, but they worry that they have “low efficiency”, so they depend on writing programs to engage in “quantitative trading”, making a futile attempt to capture every opportunity for profit in the market. Some people don’t even trade once per year, while some people trade once every few days… Let’s first not worry about what decides these trading frequencies — what’s important right now is: What results are influenced by “trading frequency”? 501 | 502 | There’s an “**elephant in the room**” — one of those phenomena that is obvious but that people ignore: 503 | 504 | > The higher the trading frequency, the closer it is to a “zero-sum game”. 505 | 506 | Wise people have repeatedly reminded us of this, it’s just that they have had different ways of saying it. The words are different, but the meaning is the same: 507 | 508 | > "In the short-run, the market is a voting machine… but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine.” 509 | 510 | > — Benjamin Graham 511 | 512 | So if leeks want to turn things around, I’ll say it a million times, there is only one road to take: 513 | 514 | > **Reduce trading frequency… Reduce, reduce, reduce.** 515 | 516 | Don’t disbelieve this: **as long as you’re frequently trading, you are still nothing more than a “leek”**. Reducing the frequency of your trading is easy to say but hard to do. Many experts try to convince novices to reduce the frequency of their trading, but even though their reasoning makes a lot of sense the novices don’t care: 517 | 518 | > The result of frequent trading is an accumulation of trading fees, which will accumulate until they eat up all of your profits and principal… 519 | 520 | We already know that the mistake that almost all novices make is to assume that they are participating in a “zero-sum game”, and so the vast majority of them become “leeks”. However, what the vast majority of them don’t realize is that, as their trading frequency increases, they are really getting closer and closer to “tirelessly playing a true zero-sum game”. 521 | 522 | Most terrifying is that, from a macro perspective, exchanges are the only winners in the “zero-sum game” of the trading markets — everyone else loses. Even though the players are “gambling” (trading) amongst themselves, the exchange is “skimming off the top” (taking fees) no matter who wins. When you win, a bit gets skimmed off the top, and when you, lose a bit gets skimmed off the top, so no matter who wins or loses both parties have a bit skimmed off the top… and what’s the conclusion? 523 | 524 | > **There's simply no “zero-sum game” in the trading markets at all.** 525 | 526 | The hallucination of leeks is that with their behavior they show that they believe and persist in believing that they can use their intelligence and strength to completely defeat fees… They never know that “skimming off the top” is the only sustainable business model in human history, and that it’s truly not something that can be defeated by an individual. Take a look at brokers around the world and you’ll understand. 527 | 528 | The huge benefit of reducing trading frequency is evident in another area. 529 | 530 | When your trading frequency is higher, it is hard to reduce your risk/reward ratio, because in such a short period of time it is extremely unlikely to “suddenly” have huge returns. Even though sometimes you will see “tremendous increases or decreases” in a market with huge volatility, trying to capture these tremendous increases or decreases is precisely the most risky behavior — it’s like trying to take coals from a fire. 531 | 532 | When you **actively** try to reduce trading frequency (notice that I say “actively”, while “unconsciously increasing trading frequency” is the passive behavior that traders have been pushed into by the market), you will discover that this is actually equivalent to actively increasing your risk/reward ratio, because you actively decreased the denominator (return), without decreasing the numerator (risk). 533 | 534 | When I first started, my trading frequency was also high. It was only after I understood, and started to actively reduce my trading frequency, that I realized that the amount of the return I required to satisfy me was constantly rising. I even gave myself the following rule: 535 | 536 | > **Before it increases 10x, treat it as if it doesn’t exist.** 537 | 538 | 10x! This is a level of return that I never even imagined when my trading frequency was relatively high. Maybe I will change this multiple in the future, but this is a number that could only appear in my mind after I had actively reduced my trading frequency many times over the long term. I couldn’t have imagined it before. 539 | 540 | It’s counterintuitive that in the market: 541 | 542 | > - The shorter the term of the prediction, the closer it is to flipping a coin. 543 | > - The longer the term of the prediction, the closer it is to logical reasoning. 544 | 545 | So the essence of reducing trading frequency is refusing to flip coins and insisting on logical reasoning. 546 | 547 | ## 13. Who’s really cutting whose leeks in the end… 548 | 549 | Trading entails risk. 550 | 551 | Laws are a lot of fun: if the issuer of a traded item fails to notify the public of the risk involved, they are quite likely to be determined to have committed the crime of fraud. But actually there is absolutely no need to make this kind of notification! Because all trading has risk, and traders should understand this before entering the market! 552 | 553 | Regrettably, “leeks” are just that impulsive, and they rush into the market without reading, without thinking, and without learning. The reason that they rush into the market and “buy, buy, buy” is very simple: “Other people have already earned money!” It’s really not easy to protect “leeks”. 554 | 555 | It’s the kind leeks who start to research “value investing” once they’re “stuck”, because they at least “silently take responsibility for the losses brought about by their mistaken decisions”, and they hope to improve their lot through “learning”. 556 | 557 | More extreme “leeks” are actually more common, and they usually want to “defend their rights”! **Once again, they want to “demand a explanation”, an explanation that makes them feel good.** 558 | 559 | In July of 2018, Lei Jun’s Xiaomi went public in Hong Kong, and that day it dropped below its listing price. Lots of secondary market investors “bought at a high price” and were “stuck”, and lots of them became so called “cut leeks”. So, tell me, is Lei Jun the one who “cut the leeks”? 560 | 561 | In this situation, those who thought that they were leeks who had been cut by Lei Jun because they were stuck really have muddled thinking, so much so that they absolutely shouldn’t enter the trading markets, not just because of their muddled thinking, but because they have absolutely no ability to take responsibility for their own decisions and behavior. **Ability is not something that you have just because you say you have it**, right? 562 | 563 | Facebook, a company that today has one of the highest market caps in the world, also fell below it’s listing price. So I ask: 564 | 565 | > If someone who bought Facebook shares before it dropped below its listing price didn’t sell but held until today, did they make money? Did they make money?! 566 | 567 | Obviously, these people were not “cut leeks”, and they didn’t depend on “cutting leeks” to make money. Right?! 568 | 569 | If you observe carefully, you will see this truth: 570 | 571 | > Often, so-called “leeks” are not cut by others; it is more common for them to **cut themselves!** 572 | 573 | We can break their mistake down into three parts: 574 | 575 | > - First, they are unable to distinguish between value and price, and they make a mistaken buying decision; 576 | > - Next, they still can’t distinguish between value and price, so the make a mistaken selling decision; 577 | > - Finally, they still can’t distinguish between value and price, but they have no self awareness, so they think that others have cheated them and that they are “cut leeks”… 578 | 579 | Above we are discussing the trading of good assets. Does the market have bad assets? (Note that I say “bad” and not “not good”, as there is a large distinction between these two and they should not be confused.) Of course! Not only are there bad assets in the market, there is also a lot of fraud. Malicious market manipulation, improper insider trading, corrupt transfer of benefits… countless types of fraud. In real trading markets (such as stock markets), laws and regulation have been refined over so many years, and the malicious behavior mentioned above has never been eradicated. The law lags behind, but bad people are forever making progress… And the blockchain world? In a world where the laws are less refined and more behind, of course there are more bad assets and fraud! 580 | 581 | To take it a step further, those who take advantage of the cognitive deficit of “leeks” to entice them to “buy high”, and then think of ways to make them “castrate themselves” are absolutely bad people! Even if the law hasn’t yet caught up, they are definitely bad people. What is this a little bit similar to? Sometimes on the street you see people who intentionally cover up all or part of their license plate (have you seen those who wipe mud on their license plate so that two or three characters are covered?). These are “definitely bad people”. Why? Because this person is thinking about how to avoid responsibility before they have even been caught… So, these are “definitely bad people”. 582 | 583 | But honestly, you haven’t seen the even more ruthless “leeks”! 584 | 585 | > They know that they’ve “been cut”, so they decide to persist until they can “cut others”. If someone uncovers the truth during this process, and obstructs “their opportunity to cut leeks”, then they will fight with them at all costs. 586 | 587 | If you’re interested, you can search online for the “Nanjing Qianbaowang” incident. A bunch of so-called “investors” clearly knew they were participating in a Ponzi scheme, but this is what they thought: 588 | 589 | > If Xianbaowang went under before they themselves exited, then weren’t they the helpless victims? 590 | 591 | So Qianbaowang couldn’t go under before they found the next group of victims! Now you see how scary “leeks” can be, right? 592 | 593 | ## 14. If only I’d bought here or there… 594 | 595 | **All leeks have a fantasy.** Every day, or even every moment, they are staring at the %K lines. This idea often appears in their minds: 596 | 597 | > Argh! If only I had sold there (looking at a high price point) and then bought here (moving their gaze to a low price point)! 598 | 599 | I don’t know about you, but I certainly had this type of fantasy when I first started. Later, after observation, I guess that every novice has had this type of fantasy. 600 | 601 | As to why it is a fantasy, you can tell by this phrase: 602 | 603 | > If only… 604 | 605 | This is the most typical phrase that people use when they want to shake off awkwardness. The reality is that you can’t change the past, but leeks still can’t help fantasizing, and thinking that things would be better if only the past were this way or that way. 606 | 607 | It’s hard for novices to avoid this type of fantasizing, but **old leeks are chronically childish.** 608 | 609 | You can tell by listening to them describe a “market manipulator” (this is quite possibly their fantasizing): 610 | 611 | > “Li Xiaolai sold all of his EOS and cashed out at 32 RMB, and then when the market price went down to 6 RMB he bought it all back… Just like this, in a few days Li Xiaolai got more than 5x returns!” (This is from a news report in mid-August 2017) 612 | 613 | 32 RMB was the highest price point for EOS at that time, and 6 RMB was the lowest price point. Li Xiaolai is really amazing! He could predict in advance the highest point and “sell everything”! Not only that, he quickly predicted the lowest point and at that point “bought it all back”! 614 | 615 | This is an astonishing series of events. It’s okay for novices to not understand, but are old leeks still this way? At any point in time there is a price in the market, but along with this price there is also a “**trading volume at that price**”. This is very important! 616 | 617 | Calm down a bit, take a look at the K line and you’ll understand. At that time there was very little trading volume at the price of 32 RMB. Actually, at any “highest point” or “lowest point” the trading volume is very low! At the highest price point, you can only sell a small amount. If you keep selling, then you need to sell at a lower price… Conversely, at the lowest price point, you can only buy a small amount. If you keep buying, then you need to buy at a higher price… 618 | 619 | This is just how leeks are: every now and then they need to use fantasies to console themselves about their past. And then they can’t help using those same fantasies to explain things that are currently happening. They have no idea that these are things that are actually completely impossible. 620 | 621 | It’s still the same mechanism: 622 | 623 | > They think that they are playing a zero-sum game, so if they lose money someone else must have earned it… As far as who “earned” it, they don’t know that that “who” only exists in their fantasy, so it must be a “real person”. Who is it? It can only be that “person who they already know made money”… So they naturally take Li Xiaolai to be that person. Yes! It can only be Li Xiaolai. 624 | 625 | As you gradually improve, and leave that road that destines you to become a leek, you will naturally understand: 626 | 627 | > As a participant in trading markets, it’s not very likely that you will sell at the highest point, and it’s difficult to buy at the lowest point. 628 | 629 | Why? The reason is quite clear and simple: 630 | 631 | > The highest and lowest points are caused by the **impulsiveness** of a small portion of traders. 632 | 633 | You are destined to become a non-impulsive person, so **those impulsive trades are destined to not belong to the non-impulsive you!** 634 | 635 | Believe me, you are a normal person, so it’s very normal for you to have fantasies from time to time. However, you are different. How are you different? You are different in that when you have a fantasy to can recognize the fantasy and clearly know that it is a fantasy. So you can be like a normal person and shake your head furiously, shaking off the fantasy and continuing your normal life and normal thoughts… 636 | 637 | ## 15. People become stupid in the same way they become bad… 638 | 639 | Are people naturally good or naturally evil? More and more, I have come to believe that people are “**naturally good**”. 640 | 641 | Do people start foolish and then become more and more clever? Or is it the other way around, and they start clever and later slowly become stupid? 642 | 643 | Actually: 644 | 645 | > **People become stupid in the same way that they become bad**, and the mechanism for these two processes is exactly the same. 646 | 647 | Tell me, does this world have “people who are 100% bad”? 648 | 649 | This is a question I have thought about often over the past year, because over the last ten to twenty years I have run into only one person that I extremely disliked. After she left the Publishing House of Electronics Industry (PHEI), I wasn’t willing to privately give her the publishing rights to a bestseller that I had written, instead deciding to keep publishing with PHEI. After this, this person would never pass up a chance to “vilify Li Xiaolai”, and I even suspect she hired people to write bad things online. But one person over ten to twenty years is actually quite rare, and the percentage is quite low. 650 | 651 | When I was young I wasn’t very sociable, but, after training and improving myself, I have a lot of good friends, especially after the age of thirty — even if I’m still not necessarily very “sociable”. 652 | 653 | When I introduce one friend to another, I often start off this way — and it is something I am very proud of: 654 | 655 | > This is my friend of twenty years… 656 | 657 | As to how I make friends, I wrote an article on my WeChat Public account: “What is a friend?” (two articles in total). 658 | 659 | But during the entirety of my 45th year, which is over the past year, I have run into a large amount of so-called “bad people”. Betrayal, fraud, slander, mixing up right and wrong, even entrapment…. Aside from [Zheng Yiting (@xdite)](https://github.com/xdite), I won't mention any other names — but there aren’t enough fingers on my one hand to count them all! With such density, I must find a way to reflect: have I become the problem? 660 | 661 | Repeated thinking has led me to two conclusions: 662 | 663 | > 1. It seems that the percentage of people has not actually increased, because the number of new people I met this past years is basically equivalent to the total amount of people I met during the previous twenty years… 664 | > 2. And then I was surprised to discover that the world doesn’t have 100% bad people, it only has “good people” and “people who have gone partially bad”… 665 | 666 | Think about it carefully. In your life have you run into a “100% bad person”? I thought carefully about it, and discovered that I hadn’t. Looking around in the past, or even in history, I couldn’t find anyone — even murderers might be protecting their daughter, even rapists have love. Isn’t Lust, Caution this type of story? 667 | 668 | So, in the end, my conclusion is: 669 | 670 | > All people **want to be** good. 671 | 672 | If I were to choose between “people are naturally good” and “people are naturally bad”, right now I can only chose the former. So there are no “purely bad people”, and maybe there are only “partially bad people”. For instance, people who are 10% bad, or 20% bad… I would guess that it would be difficult for even a “50% bad person” to exist, because at over 50% that would be a lot of suffering in their heart. 673 | 674 | **All people want to be good.** But once the person has made a bad decision, then they will face a choice: 675 | 676 | > - Admit the mistake, and then work hard to correct the mistake… 677 | > - Not admit the mistake, and then “rationalize” the mistake… 678 | 679 | “Rationalizing one’s mistakes” is at its essence **a process of reshaping one's brain**. As soon as this process is completed, the person is still someone who “want to be good” in their heart — this is the only way we can explain how those corrupt officials teach their children at home that they should be people of good character. 680 | 681 | If you simply divide the people in this world into “good people” and “bad people”, then these unclear concepts will constantly influence future decisions, and of course you will burdened by these possibly incorrect decisions (or we could simply call them “actions brought about by fantasies”). So, I must thank these people I have met over the past year, because the end result of their existence is that “Li Xiaolai has evolved”. 682 | 683 | If I weren’t upgrading my “operating system” like this, there is no way that I could understand Zheng Yiting’s behavior (Her nickname online is *X-Dite*, or *XDite*). Over the last few months, she has been describing Li Xiaolai as an “evil investor” everywhere, but has always avoided several obvious facts: 684 | 685 | > - With Li Xiaolai’s help, she held training courses in the mainland and made more money than she did in many years in Taiwan; 686 | > - This training company was invested in by Li Xiaolai, who requested and carried out a reduction in his share from 40% to 30%, telling her, “I don’t care, I want you to work harder and make more”; 687 | > - Later, the vast majority of OTCBTC’s users came from Li Xiaolai’s community; 688 | > - As of early August 2018, Zheng Yiting had not given Li Xiaolai any investment returns from OTCBTC, not even returning the initial investment… 689 | 690 | If she wants to call Li Xiaolai an “evil investor”, then she should at least first return the investment after making money, right? 691 | 692 | After upgrading myself, I started to understand her train of thought. After making huge potential profits and having a huge potential valuation, she suddenly decided that the originally agreed upon 40% was really too much, so she didn’t want to share with the early investors, and didn’t want to carry out the obligations of what had been previously agreed upon. This is the only core reason, and these were later her actual actions — however,, she needed to rationalize these decisions and behavior. After rationalizing, she still completely “wants to be good” in her heart. For example, she is still diligent, still hard working, and she still wants to convince other people and tell herself that she is kind and fair and righteous… It’s just that these residual effects remain: 693 | 694 | > 1. Since these decisions and behavior have been rationalized, the next time she runs into a similar situation she will respond with the same decisions and behavior without hesitation… 695 | > 2. The next time she runs into a slightly more extreme situation, the cost of making an incorrect decision will be lower, and the impulse will be higher… 696 | 697 | So, to be frank, when I see Zheng Yiting constantly rationalizing her own behavior, and working so hard on the path of “becoming a worse person”, I cannot hate her, I can only feel pity for her — it’s just another pitiful person in the world. 698 | 699 | A reporter asked me about Zheng Yiting and several other people: 700 | 701 | > Do you hate them? 702 | 703 | My reply was the same: 704 | 705 | > No. I really don’t hate them. First I don’t have time, and second I really feel they are quite pitiful, because once they have started to go bad, there’s basically no way to come back… 706 | 707 | Furthermore, if I can’t understand the existence of this kind of “normal phenomenon”, my world would be a dark place. 708 | 709 | I might also understand the couple who recorded and then leaked a private conversation with me to be “scoundrels” — five months previously they secretly made a recording, then five months later they secretly gave it to someone with ulterior motives, and then they created a negative image of Li Xiaolai… 710 | 711 | But actually? Actually this is more likely: 712 | 713 | > When they were talking with me, they to some extent took Li Xiaolai to be someone like a teacher, and thought that his ideas had value, so they secretly recorded the conversation. Had they requested permission at the time, they either would have been refused, or, if Li Xiaolai had agreed, then five months later everyone would have heard the “clean version” — there wouldn’t have been as much dirty language, and criticisms of people wouldn’t have been by name… 714 | > 715 | > I guess that they later shared this recording with close friends or colleagues, and then after that it was discovered by people with ulterior motives who used the most ruthless tactics to “make things difficult” for Li Xiaolai: 716 | > > - Taking everything out of context; 717 | > > - Even going so far as to make up statements (Li Xiaolai didn’t use the work “leek”, but they used such frightening headlines); 718 | > > - Spending money to get mainstream media to share it on Sina Weibo accounts; 719 | > > - Hiring people to create frightening topics in WeChat and Telegram groups; 720 | > > - Organizing “groups to report offenses”, inciting emotions and promising to “find help in the government if you tell me”; 721 | > > - Organizing lots of people to make anonymous reports to government officials — with the material to report being the made-up “explosive material in the recording”; 722 | > > - Approaching lawyers and saying, “I don’t care how much it costs, I want Li Xiaolai locked up”… 723 | 724 | So the couple weren’t actually the perpetrators, but they are quite pitiful — from now on, who will be willing or dare to be open and sincere with them? 725 | 726 | Some people have tried to sell me anti-eavesdropping tools, and some people have recommended “even more amazing dark professional PR teams”… I rejected them all. I don’t want to turn into that kind of person just because I have run into that kind of person. Not at all. 727 | 728 | **I hope I can remain the way I was.** 729 | 730 | To take it a step further, **I don’t want to turn bad.** Not even a little bit. 731 | 732 | When faced with that kind of person, I also don’t want to use “their tricks”, or “their methods”, fighting fire with fire or whatever… Because if I do that, even if I win, I lose, and I lose badly, because I have been changed by them — and what’s worse than that? 733 | 734 | To be precise, even saying that “*I want to be a good person*” is giving me too much credit. Really all I want is this: 735 | 736 | > **I don’t want to turn bad.** 737 | 738 | How can I keep from becoming bad? It’s easy, and we’ve already made it clear: 739 | 740 | > If I accidentally make a mistake, I must correct it, and absolutely not try to do any form of “rationalization”. 741 | 742 | The mechanism for a person becoming stupid is the same; it’s completely the same. They just made a foolish decision, they just didn’t work hard to correct their thinking, and they just unconsciously rationalized their prior stupidity… So they start to become stupid, and they go further and further down the road of becoming stupid. The earlier discussion of the way that all “leeks” think is full of clear examples and explanations. 743 | 744 | So, if you don’t want to become stupid, you just have to do one thing: 745 | 746 | > It doesn’t matter if you do one stupid thing, but as soon as you discover you are stupid you must immediately correct it, and absolutely do not rationalize your dumbass behavior. Otherwise, you can only go further and further down the road of becoming stupid… The most terrifying thing is that dumbasses are definitely not lonely, because their natural percentage in the population is quite large, and their consensus is even stronger. So if you’re not vigilant enough you will definitely become an dumbass who feels happy but is actually in pain — this is without question. 747 | 748 | So, in the end, all wise people are the same, with no differences in this point of view: 749 | 750 | > If after a period of time you don’t even feel that the past version of you was a dumbass, then this shows that you have already completely turned into an incurable dumbass 751 | 752 | Look at what Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio says: 753 | 754 | > Pain + Reflection = Progress 755 | 756 | After going through this process of thinking, the words I use to evaluate people have started to change. “Not bad” is the highest evaluation of a person’s character; in the same way, “not stupid” is highest evaluation of a person’s intelligence. It matches up with that saying: good people are all the same, and bad people are all different; smart people are all the same, and stupid people are all different… 757 | 758 | > Note: There is an article in the magazine Scientific American that I recommend you read closely. It’s called “The Dark Core of Personality”, and you can learn about the concept of the “D-Factor”. Here is the web address: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/beautiful-minds/the-dark-core-of-personality/ 759 | 760 | 761 | 762 | ## 16. The correct way to increase risk/reward ratio… 763 | 764 | People who enter trading markets are never lacking in pain, because pain is flying all over the place. So what they really lack is just one thing: 765 | 766 | > **Reflection** 767 | 768 | With both pain and reflection, progress must result. So if novices want to escape from the fate of leeks, they must reflect every moment of every day, and after they reflect they still must reflect again. 769 | 770 | You are entering a place with risk, and here there are almost no certain returns, so what should you do? Or, to put it another way, “how can you correctly decrease your **risk/reward ratio**”? 771 | 772 | > **risk/reward ratio = Potential risk ÷ Potential reward** 773 | 774 | What profound theories can be derived from such a simple equation? Staring at something for a long time and letting your imagination run wild for a long time is the only way to do so-called “deep thinking”. Just as we can start to see patterns that we couldn’t see before if we stare at the ceiling for long enough, all deep thinking is the result of staring at something for a long time. This was the process for Descartes inventing the Cartesian coordinate system — if you’re interested, go to a search engine and look up Descartes’ story. 775 | 776 | Looking at the equation, you can see that there are only two ways to decrease risk/reward ratio: either increase the denominator, or decrease the numerator 777 | 778 | Here are some feasible methods to reduce the numerator: 779 | 780 | > - Adjust the stop-loss line, reducing the amount of risk you carry; 781 | > - Reduce the amount of each trade relative to overall assets; 782 | > - Increase your ability to earn money outside of the market (or increase fundraising ability). 783 | 784 | Are there any more? Think about it. Each of these items is worth adjusting your own behavior. 785 | 786 | And to increase the denominator? What are some workable methods? 787 | 788 | > - Choose higher quality trading targets; 789 | > - Choose the most opportune times to trade (for instance, buy after several steep falls in price); 790 | > - Increase holding time (for instance, crossing one or more bull/bear cycles). 791 | 792 | Everyone has different preferences, everyone has a different history, and everyone has different desires, so **there is no standard answer here**, and the three items listed above for each are not necessarily a complete list. As for me, I have limited ability, so in the end I just listed these three that had meaning. So, I could only make choices in the range of my ability. 793 | 794 | Finally, this was my choice: 795 | 796 | > - To reduce the numerator, I think of ways to increase my ability to make money outside of the market, and I treat money that I put in the market as if I’ve lost it… 797 | > - To increase the denominator, I don’t make moves after I buy, no matter what the price does, and cross through multiple bull/bear cycles… 798 | 799 | After many years passed, I discovered that making this choice at that time had a prerequisite: 800 | 801 | > **My daily expenses were fairly average, I generally didn’t spend that much money**, and before entering the trading markets I was already a relatively affluent member of the so-called “middle class”. This meant that when I entered the market, my threshold for desiring to “cash out” was relatively high, or “extremely high”, so it created a virtuous cycle. The denominator got larger and larger, and the numerator got relatively smaller and smaller. 802 | 803 | In any case, your goal is very clear: when your denominator gets relatively large enough, you are no longer a “leek”, because you have escaped the “curse of the leek”. How do you escape it? It depends on your choices. Once you’ve done it, go and tell those “leeks” about it. Will they believe you? Let me tell you from experience: They! Will! Not! Believe! Why? You’ll know when the time comes. 804 | 805 | ## 17. Actually, not everyone can do early stage… 806 | 807 | One-sided thinking is the common fault of all “leeks”. If you don’t believe me, just wait and see. 808 | 809 | It’s very difficult to do early stage investing! It’s just that the vast majority of people don’t know this. They only see the legend that early stage investors make a lot of money, but they don’t know the truth at all. 810 | 811 | **First, there are many times more failed early stage projects than there are successful ones…** 812 | 813 | You may have heard that LI Xiaolai started buying bitcoin in 2011; at the end of 2015, after Ethereum came out, even though Li Xiaolai wasn’t optimistic about it, his partner Lao Mao grabbed the opportunity; in 2017, even though Li Xiaolai didn’t know about the seed round of EOS, he invested in the angel round… Aside from this, Li Xiaolai also invested in QTUM, ZCash, SIA, GXS, XIN, MOB… 814 | 815 | > I’ve read Lao Mao’s book Blockchain Investing Notes many times myself… 816 | 817 | Li Xiaolai lives publicly online, so he won’t deliberately hide the failed projects that he has invested in. If you listed out all of the projects that Li Xiaolai has invested in (even though I don’t hide them, I’d find it embarrassing to publicly list them all over the place), the conclusion is clear: there are more than ten times as many failed projects as successful ones! 818 | 819 | **Second, you actually can’t invest much money in early stage projects…** 820 | 821 | This is a problem that most people haven’t thought about. When Peter Thiel invested in Facebook he was the earliest angel investor, but how much did he invest? Only 500,000 USD. He also wanted to “take a large position”, but he actually couldn’t invest more! If you invest too much in startup companies they will turn bad. Do you believe it? If you give too much money, then you have to own too high of a percentage, and investors don’t want to do it and don’t dare. Do you believe it? 822 | 823 | **And there’s something even more important! Because they are “early stage”, early stage investors can only become long term investors…** 824 | 825 | In the long period before Facebook went public, Peter Thiel’s stock was “completely illiquid”. Gains and losses on illiquid assets are nothing more than “book value”. 826 | 827 | I bought a lot of bitcoin in the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012. By April 1, 2013, bitcoin had gone from a low of less than 1 USD to 100 USD in just a few months! You must think I earned a lot! But actually? In the trading markets at the time, transaction volume was very low. A lot of exchanges were flooded with orders from the exchanges themselves, which people jokingly called “ghost orders”… So with that level of transaction volume there’s no way I could have gotten out. If I wanted to sell some , it would “crashed the market”, and it really would have crashed it to a scary place. So that “floating profit” was at most a number I could look at and feel happy about; it wasn’t real at all. It wasn’t until 2017 that the transaction volume for the whole market got to a place where one could freely enter and exit — but for me there was already no point to it, since my I don’t spend much money anyway. 828 | 829 | Imagine again when Facebook went public on February 2, 2012. On the next day its stock dropped below the issuance price, “crashing 11%”! Even if you bought before the “crash” and “had your leeks cut”, how multiples would your return have been if you had held until today? 830 | 831 | But here is the key: 832 | 833 | > When Facebook went public, it definitely was no longer “early-stage investing”, and there was such a large market that it had much better liquidity… 834 | 835 | So **you could invest as much as you wanted to**, and there wasn’t an upper limit of “just 500,000 USD”… 836 | 837 | “Leek’s” thinking is one-sided. They only looking at the “unit price” and conclude that “it’s already to expensive now”! So they always look for “cheaper”, and always look for “earlier opportunities”… Little do they know that this one-sided thinking is an “invisible sickle” that reaps them again and again. 838 | 839 | Early-stage investing really isn’t something that everyone can do. Even if you don’t consider the necessary personal relationships, for most people their capital composition just isn’t right. Investing at an early stage is extremely risky, and most projects will fail, so you need to be able to invest in 50 to 100 projects. That means if you invest 500,000 in one project, you need to prepare 50 million. Even if you’re confident that your judgment is twice as good as others, you still need to have 20 million to try out with 500,000 per project, right? 840 | 841 | Obviously, leeks don’t satisfy these conditions. They are not qualified, but they do it anyway, which means that the risk is infinitely greater. 842 | 843 | Investing in early stage projects is absolutely not something that leeks should do. You must amass a certain amount of resources before you touch these types of opportunities, or else you will be cut again and again. 844 | 845 | ## 18. Project analysis really isn’t what you need to learn… 846 | 847 | **The reason to learn anything is so that you can “make use of it”**. But the problem is that some skill take a lot of time and discipline to develop. So what about when you can’t wait? If a skill takes a lot of time and discipline to develop, of course the correct conclusion is not to “just not learn it”. The correct conclusion is this: 848 | 849 | > Learn, but don’t be in a rush to use it. Wait until you’ve learned enough to make use of it… 850 | 851 | However, **there are always some skills that you can “immediately put into practice”**. People who are good at learning are actually just good at distinguishing this attribute of skills. They can judge what needs to be developed slowly through discipline, and what can be learned quickly and used right away. 852 | 853 | Leeks who research “project analysis ability” when they are still just copying things mechanically are exactly like the “small town girls researching fashion” that Qian Zhongshu wrote about. They spend time and energy, but the result is that their imitation looks absurd. 854 | 855 | Don’t do this. This is a skill that you have to slowly observe, slowly figure out, constantly reflect on, and even constantly negate yourself until you finally get it. Because of this, you must not use it indiscriminately, and you must not use it right away. You must patiently develop it with self-discipline — for at least three years. 856 | 857 | So what do you need to learn that you can use right away? 858 | 859 | The most important thing would have been: “**don’t do anything after you enter the market, and only buy after watching for one year**”, because if you had done this then you would already be “smarter”… But there’s no chance to use this, because you are like the vast majority of people and have already “been cut”. 860 | 861 | Well… at least you’ve got me! Let me tell you a second thing, which you can use right away, and you still have time to learn and use: 862 | 863 | > **Only buy the two or three targets with the highest trading volume.** 864 | 865 | This is a kind of wisdom. Temporarily let go of your own intelligence, and believe in the intelligence of the whole market. The market has helped you choose, so why don’t you follow along? 866 | 867 | This is really hard to understand and hard to do. On the one hand you need to constantly improve and constantly study, or at least prevent yourself from becoming stupid. But on the other hand you also must temporarily let go of your own wisdom… it’s quite a contradiction, isn’t it?! 868 | 869 | Maybe this is why people often incorrectly surmise that “investing is an activity that runs against human nature”? 870 | 871 | Actually this is not a contradiction at all, and in fact it is in no way against human nature: 872 | 873 | > Since at the beginning your wisdom is lacking, you should temporarily let it go, and let it develop of to the side. What’s wrong with this? Setting aside your own intelligence doesn’t mean that intelligence is nowhere to be found! The market has intelligence, and the market is often smarter. Do you really not believe it? Once you have developed your intelligence to a certain level, you will understand… 874 | 875 | So doing this is not “against human nature”. To the contrary, it’s just that in fact your past self hadn’t developed your learning habits and methods. In the past you always thought that things had to be fully learned before using them. You didn’t know that there were really things in this world that can be immediately put into practice, and that doing so was truly the best choice. 876 | 877 | I will tell you a story, and we will see if it is inspiring. 878 | 879 | Once upon a time in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, there was a force that people called “the Daily Limit Suicide Squad”. Their method was quite simple: if they saw a stock that was about to rise to its daily limit, they would buy; if it reached its daily limit on the second day, they would sell at market open on the third day; if it hadn’t reached its daily limit by market close on the second day, they would sell before the market close. Just that simple. This group operated for more than ten years, and incredibly they took tens of thousands and turned it in to who knows how much… 880 | 881 | They are very frank, saying, "We didn't really read any books, we're stupid! So we just didn't think about it, since we couldn't understand it in any case. Whenever a stock was about to reach its trading limit, it meant that the market had done the thinking for us, and we just took action!" 882 | 883 | Of course you shouldn’t just copy it, but from this example you can see how they avoided becoming leeks. They had a stop-loss strategy, and they had a profit-taking strategy, but, more importantly, they had the wisdom and courage to let go of their own wisdom… 884 | 885 | There is another law that supports temporarily letting go of your own intelligence: 886 | 887 | > In trading markets, that which rapidly rises will rise even more rapidly, and that which rapidly falls will fall even more rapidly… so, 888 | 889 | > • When everything is rising, you must choose the one that is rising the most rapidly, because the odds say, or the market is teaching you, that it is more likely to rise; 890 | 891 | > • When everything is falling, you must choose the one that is falling the least, because the odds say, or the market is teaching you, that it is most resistant to falling… 892 | 893 | Maybe you will think, “Aren’t you teaching me to speculate!” Don’t worry, you will reach your own conclusions sooner or later. It’s just that in the earliest stages you don’t have enough intelligence, so you must temporarily let go of using your intelligence (not “let go of training your intelligence”). 894 | 895 | Observe the “leeks” and you will see how sensible you are. Their “intelligence” jumps around with the %K line, following whether or not their “bet” is doubling… When the price of the coin goes up they are arrogant and bossy, and when the price of the coin goes down they are like a dog who has lost its family. Do you want to be like them? Yes, I think I heard someone far away screaming, “NO!” 896 | 897 | ## 19. Leeks don’t have lives, or even sex lives… 898 | 899 | In 2013 I gave a lecture at Garage Cafe, and in the last five minutes of the lecture I gave some pertinent advice to all of the listeners: 900 | 901 | > Remember, you need to have a life, and **life is most important!** 902 | 903 | Today, five years later, open a search engine, search for “blockchain sex life”, click a link on the first page, and read for a while… Those articles, they are in fact not joking, because these things actually happen. 904 | 905 | Do you still remember the most important method for a novice to grow into a “non-leek”? 906 | 907 | > **Reduce trading frequency.** 908 | 909 | This method looks incredibly simple, but few people are able to do it. Why? 910 | 911 | Because we are people, and our innate genes determine that we like to pay attention to changes. In our lives it is the same, as we pay attention to things that move, and not to things that are static. This is why the vast majority of people like to raise pets, and there are comparatively many fewer people who like to raise plants… 912 | 913 | It is very normal for novices who enter the trading markets to immediately be attracted by the %K lines and other types of related numbers and targets that jump around. Chinese people who trade in the A shares market are relatively blessed — the market opens so late every day, then breaks for lunch after two hours, and then closes very early in the afternoon… So even if you want to stare at the numbers, it’s just for that amount of time, and there are fifteen or so hours left in the day where there’s really nothing to look at. So you’ve never heard that traders on the A shares market don’t have a sex life. They have nothing else to do, so why not? 914 | 915 | The blockchain world is different. Trading in the blockchain markets is 24x365, with no breaks. Even if the system of one exchange crashes, there are more than 10,000 other trading markets still operating. A share investors basically trades on one or at most two trading markets; but blockchain traders, they are always working with the interfaces of five or six exchanges, and many leeks wish they could attach five or six big screens to one computer! 916 | 917 | What is it really that has stripped leeks of their lives, and even their sex lives? Is it really blockchain? Even though it looks so much like the chief culprit is blockchain, when we calm down we know that blockchain has been unjustly blamed! Then what is it really? It’s this: 918 | 919 | > Fear of Missing Out, abbreviated to **FOMO**, and sometimes called Fear of Missing Opportunity 920 | 921 | FOMO, Fear of Missing Out. FOMO is almost the thing with the strongest base in the masses, and the lower you get the easier it is to be controlled by it. You’ll understand if you look at the slogans of pyramid sales or WeChat businesses, as they are basically follow the same pattern: 922 | 923 | > You already missed out on XXX, and then you missed out on YYY, now do you want to also miss out on ZZZ?! 924 | 925 | The less opportunities a person has the easier it is for them to be stirred up by these sentence patterns. If you calm down and think about it you’ll understand. If you’re someone who doesn’t lack opportunity, if the price of bitcoin goes sky high, would it worry you? It wouldn’t! Because you have other opportunities. 926 | 927 | During Spring Festival 2018, a group of people made a “3AM” chat group. They never slept, they were still chatting at 3AM, and when other people were almost ready to wake, they had just started chatting. The topics were all over the place, from history to philosophy, from mathematics to engineering, and everyone and their brother were spitting out economic terms that people didn’t understand but sounded good (most of them were superficial or even incorrect)… Were they really “excited”? Looking at them from another perspective, they were nothing more than another batch of “FOMO victims”. There is a batch of these people in every cycle. I’ve already been through several big and small bull/bear cycles, so I’ve seen this type of situation and this type of people so many times. What they say is actually all repeating what the previous batch of people who have already left had said before. There is no difference at all, but they act as if they’ve discovered a new world. 928 | 929 | However, what is awkward is that they have already entered the market. What is more awkward is that they have already deeply felt the FOMO… So what to do? 930 | 931 | > **Work harder and more earnestly on your life!** 932 | 933 | There is a lot of substance in life. Back then I depended on this method to adjust my own behavior. I took a pen and paper and listed what I thought were the most important parts of my life. For instance, after sifting through things, I felt that friends were an important part. Then, in order to maintain and strengthen strong bonds with my friends, what did I need to do? I made another list of several pages, and after sifting through it I discovered that “eating good food together” was one very important thing. So when I have time to kill, I drive all over the place looking for good restaurants… After trying many out I’ll find one that is really outstanding, and if it has several branches I’ll go to them all and pick out the best branch — for example, the Daxiong Lamb Restaurant in Ganjiakou is to me the best out of its four branches. 934 | 935 | If you like to read, just buy more books and focus on finishing them; if you like to play the piano, then find more songs and practice them; if you like to watch movies, then buy more home theatre equipment, and search for more cinematic resources… **You must learn to entertain yourself**, and be good at entertaining yourself. This is the most important skill that badass traders must have — it’s even 100 times more important than trading judgement. For me, even writing books and articles has become one of my main methods for “self-entertainment”. 936 | 937 | If you’re not good at entertaining yourself, and if you don’t spend a lot of your time earnestly living, then there is no way for you to reduce your trading frequency, and you will become like a leek and spend all day staring at the screen, even putting your phone in a place you can reach it while you’re making love to your girlfriend… If you really do this, then just wait for yourself to slowly turn into an old leek with even less possibility of a sex life. 938 | 939 | ## 20. Loneliness is the most valuable trait of successful traders… 940 | 941 | You can be a novice, but you must not be a leek. You can “be cut once”, but you must not be cut multiple times. Of course, you absolutely must not be eternally cut… So, there is also one thing you must do: 942 | 943 | > **Be a lonesome trader.** 944 | 945 | Experts don’t attach great important to “correctness”, because anyone can be correct. It’s not that hard. What is really hard is to not just be correct, but to be correct in a way that is different from the masses. Only being "**unconventional and correct**” can produce huge trading value. 946 | 947 | When people weren’t optimistic about bitcoin, you bought; later, over the long period when people announced on different types of media that bitcoin was dead, you held… You were right, and you were right in a way that was different from the masses, so you could make returns that were unimaginable to others. In September of 2017, when the Chinese language media was condemning EOS, saying “EOS is trafficking 5 billion USD of vaporware", you were actually quietly adding to your position; and in June of 2018, when the EOS main net went online, you still held it. Well, you were right., and compared to the market you were right in an unconventional way. And even when the people who came later saw the price “rising and falling rapidly", you were still holding nearly 10x returns… So, once the whole world is going crazy for something, and they all have reached the correct conclusion, or even an overly correct conclusion, then correctness isn’t that valuable, either for you or for others. Isn’t this the case? 948 | 949 | “Consensus” might bring about price (actually not necessarily value) — this is something that old and new leeks in the blockchain industry always say. However, you must understand that this refers to a conclusion that can be drawn from the market trading price. That is to say, it’s a partially correct conclusion — if you change a perspective, you might reach a completely opposite conclusion. Just as the shape of a mountain can look different depending on which side you view it from. The vast majority of “consensus” is actually not valuable. 950 | 951 | I just stated above that “at the beginning you can temporarily let go of your own intelligence”. What I am now describing is the situation in which, after a period of time, you have already developed your own ability to think, research, and make judgements. 952 | 953 | A friend once shared with me his principles of judgement: 954 | 955 | > - Listen to what most people say 956 | > - Consult the advice of a few 957 | > - Make his own decision 958 | 959 | The meaning of “listen to what most people say” is not “listen” in the sense of doing what they say, but “listen” as in “hear”. When surviving in the market, just forget this item. It’s tiring and noisy to “listen to what most people say”, and there are no new ideas. “Most people” say repetitive things over and over, again and again. One group leaves and is replaced by another, and they say the same thing… It’s not even that meaningful to waste time with news, since most writers are business laymen, and, after all, fields have specialization. 960 | 961 | So sooner or later you will understand that using these two items is enough: 962 | 963 | > - Consult the advice of a few 964 | > - Make your own decision 965 | 966 | As time passes, your thinking will become deeper and deeper, and the final result is that “a few” no longer exist, and there is no one around you to discuss with, and no one worth your consulting — if you go further and further down a path, in the end you will definitely be alone, there is no way around this. So you are only left with one item: 967 | 968 | > - **Make your own decision** 969 | 970 | By this point, I suppose that you must have already grasped many judgements and methods, and of course you have accumulated not a small amount of wealth. When you first started you felt very lonely, but later you didn’t have that type of experience. It’s as if you had lived in a small village before, but now you have made your home somewhere in the forest; even though your house is not large, it’s as if the whole forest is your courtyard. You are way from the hubbub, but you can start to hear other sounds, like the calls of the birds and animals… 971 | 972 | Later on, you will derive your own methodology for life and work. For instance, in trading you keep to yourself, but in life you never keep to yourself, you build many good relationships and you constantly think of ways to make your life more colorful. So you will understand that being lonely in one small area of your life is not only not that bad, it’s actually quite enjoyable… 973 | 974 | In fact, if you want to reach the highest level of achievement at what you are doing in any area, you must learn to be alone. Each person has their own way of being alone. I like to drive around the city. Why? I’m not that crazy about that so-called feeling of driving, but driving is truly a context in which I like to “be alone”. The car is a relatively clean and quiet closed environment, and when driving there is a sufficient reason to reject all phone calls (it’s past time that phone manufacturers should have phones sense when they are moving at the speed of a car and automatically reject all calls or automatically send a message saying, “the number you have called may be driving”)… It’s even better with the Tesla auto-drive feature. Many of my judgements, ideas, and decision were made in the car, because **“being alone” is one of the best ways to boost productivity.** 975 | 976 | You must take good care of your loneliness. This is important. 977 | 978 | In the trading markets, this point is obvious: **you must — and can only — take responsibility for your decisions.** If you made it, it's yours, and if you lost it, then it's also on you, because it was your decision and you used your money to make trades. All of the resultant experience and lessons are yours, and they are hard to spread to others, because others are not you. They are different from you, with their own histories, their own preferences, and their own ability to bear things… 979 | 980 | In the end, you will understand that **your final returns and the extent of your loneliness will definitely increase in proportion to each other to the same level..** If you are afraid of loneliness in this area, then don’t even be a leek. Directly leave the world of trading, because if you are like that then it’s really very unsafe for you here… 981 | 982 | 983 | 984 | ## 21. In addition to life you must also have work and study… 985 | 986 | You have already seen that the habit of the “leek” is to want nothing other than trading and more trading… Even if there is someone to patiently and sincerely tell them that “reducing trading frequency” is the only way to escape the fate of a leek, they still won’t stop! Why? What will someone who has given up even their sex life listen to? It sounds funny, but I really feel that “leeks” are very Buddha-like — because they have already given up “worldly affairs”. 987 | 988 | But you are different. You want to live earnestly, and you even want to enjoy loneliness. 989 | 990 | Even more important is that you also have work, and you have study… Only in this way can you be someone who is always making progress; only in this way can you escape the fate of leeks. I emphasized before the importance of “the ability to make money outside of the market”, because otherwise you will be “short-lived”. Now I am talking about “the ability to develop your brain outside of the market”, because otherwise you will be “frail”. 991 | 992 | Leek’s favorite phrase to say is “ALL IN”. What they are unable to understand is that “ALL IN” is the reason why they became leeks. In the end they are nothing more than an old leek… Because, in the end, from the perspective of their actions, ALL IN basically becomes “their money is ALL IN the trading markets" — this is an absolute taboo for trading participants! 993 | 994 | Successful traders have this basic quality: 995 | 996 | > **They always keep a certain percentage (or at least a certain amount) in cash.** 997 | 998 | Because they know what sort of high risk environment they are in. They know that, even if their judgements are very accurate, this world will not necessarily give a correct response at that time… As long as the unexpected exists it will definitely happen! What do you do when the unexpected happens? Without cash there is nothing you can do. There are no saviors in this world, only the risk cash reserves that you have prepared… 999 | 1000 | With this basic thinking, all successful traders will in the end make the same choice: 1001 | 1002 | > **Whether it be cash, time, or life, you absolutely cannot be ALL IN in the trading markets.** 1003 | 1004 | Why? **Because there is risk!** 1005 | 1006 | The core reason for doing this is not just to protect from risk. Even more importantly, **successful traders all know that what they need most, aside from cash, is their own growth.** In the end, all high quality trading decisions come from their own growth… Or, to be more precise, it’s the “cognitive gap” between their level of growth and the normal cognitive level of those who have rejected growth. Those returns are fundamentally a “cognitive gap waterfall”. 1007 | 1008 | Where does growth come from? From work experience and diligent study. 1009 | 1010 | Often old students will seek me out and say that they want to learn to invest full-time. My answer is always the same, but it is hard to explain and understand: 1011 | 1012 | > First, investing or trading absolutely cannot be treated as “full-time work”… Because as soon as you are “full-time” you have no way to grow. You must spend a lot of time on life, on other work, and on study… Otherwise, you can only be another leek. 1013 | 1014 | > More importantly, investing or trading absolutely cannot be treated as a job where you “take salary”. As soon as you take a salary, your brain starts to be shaped in another direction. Why is “loneliness” one of the most important qualities of this field? I’ll give you another reason: because when you are alone, you don’t have the need to meticulously “perform”. When people are being observed, their movements change — this is why participants in international billiards competitions can casually play a perfect game at home, but when they are in an international competition it is not so easy. Because the external observance that they experience changes their behavior. 1015 | 1016 | So taking investing or trading as a full time job, or even a salary-paying job, is inherently quite dangerous. Even though it’s possible to reshape the brain, once it has been shaped over the long term it is is very difficult to change course. Treasure your brain. 1017 | 1018 | For a long time, I’ve been working on a lot of things. On the one hand, this is so I can “think of as many ways as possible to actively reduce trading frequency”. On the other hand, an even more important reason is that I’m afraid of stagnation, and I’m afraid that I won’t grow. Because if I stop growing I won’t be able to handle the many challenges that will come one after the other… **Failure isn’t terrifying; what is terrifying is facing failure and being unable to deal with it.** 1019 | 1020 | So, aside from trading, you must have a very good life. A good life is not something that can just be put there. It must be sought out, developed, and managed. In addition to life, you also need work. It doesn’t necessarily have to be work related to investment. No matter what kind of work it is, as long as you want to reach the highest level of achievement, it will be difficult. However, as long as you work at it, you will definitely grow, and reach a new level. Aside from life and work, you also need study. The greatest blessing of modern people is being able to study without the pressures of life. The goal of study is not to get a higher salary or a better position in society, but merely to satisfy your curiosity, and continue to develop your brain… 1021 | 1022 | ## 22. Know cycles, recognize cycles, and handle cycles… 1023 | 1024 | Almost all people naturally make a mistake when they enter trading markets: as soon as they enter they buy, buy, buy. My earlier explanation for why this is a natural mistake to make was that they were entering the market at the tail end of a bull market. 1025 | 1026 | What is the deeper reason? The deeper reason is that when these people (including myself at the time) entered the market their minds didn’t have the concept of “cycles”. If traders have this concept in their mind, if they understand this concept, if they are good at using this concept, then they wouldn’t be very likely to see trading as a zero-sum game, would they? 1027 | 1028 | After careful observation you will know that leeks only like to talk about **trends**, while the concept of **cycles** is fundamentally missing from their minds. At the most they will say: 1029 | 1030 | > - “Currently there is an upward trend…” 1031 | > - “Currently there is a downward trend…” 1032 | > - Or, “This is a major trend…” 1033 | 1034 | Even thought this sort of description is sometimes useful, more often than not it is superficial and dangerous, because an upward trend needs a downward trend to constitute a full cycle. In fact, **a true cycle is often only truly apparent after multiple cycles (at least two).** 1035 | 1036 | If we look deeply into true cycles, we will discover that rising and falling in the markets is merely a representation of a truth — **actual economies don’t have straight lines, they only have fluctuation.** 1037 | 1038 | From within a long wave band, if you look forward or backward from any point, it looks as if you are on a straight line and not a curve, just as when we stand on the earth it’s hard to perceive that we are on a globe and and not a flat surface. 1039 | 1040 | **A rise and a fall constitute a cycle.** If after two or more cycles we discover that the curve looks like a sin curve from math class, then the so-called “trend” was actually just a flat line. But the so-called “trend” that we often talk about and are looking for should be either up or down, because “flat” means “no change", and if there is no change then there is no trend. 1041 | 1042 | This explains why what some people believe to be a so-called trend is by no means a trend in the eyes of others: the latter group places importance on true trends that become apparent after more than one cycle. It also explains why people who “buy the rise and sell the fall” will inevitably suffer: what they see isn’t the true trend, it’s nothing more than an illusion. 1043 | 1044 | There is an important point here, and an interesting phenomenon: 1045 | 1046 | > All leeks believe in their bones that the target they are trading can’t actually keep rising… 1047 | 1048 | So they “enter and exit quickly”; so they fundamentally can’t hold for the long term; so they “absolutely have no way to reduce trading frequency”… Even though when they get excited they’ll use phrases like “lifetime career” to describe what they’re doing, in their bones they just don’t believe that the target will rise over the long term. 1049 | 1050 | The problem is, if you’re not sure that what you are trading is something that can rise over the long term, then what are you doing? It’s very strange! 1051 | 1052 | Back to the point at hand, paying attention to cycles and the true trends that appear over multiple cycles will give you a brand new and more dependable world and view of the world. 1053 | 1054 | … “If only I had taken a position at the bottom of the bear market, and then gotten out at the top of the bull market…” — There you go again, this idea has crossed your mind, which shows that you are still an immature child. 1055 | 1056 | To tell the truth, in theory this is also skill that ambitious novices should learn in the end. But ambition can’t be this short-term, can it? Because what you are thinking about is “handling one bull/bear cycle”, and not “pass through **multiple** bull/bear cycles”… What did Old Mr. Buffett say? “**The cycles that I like are eternal…**” In this sentence, “cycles” doesn’t refer to the cycles that we are talking about, but why does he say he likes eternity? Because once you’ve reached a certain point, the money that you can make has already exceeded your ability to spend it. So, with the rest of it, what’s the difference in holding it for one year, or two years, or for eternity? 1057 | 1058 | So how should you handle cycles? There are many theories, but in the end there is only one thing that I see as simple, dependable and easy to use without being too easy to mess up: **carefully observe and understand the mood of the vast majority of traders**. In a bull market, when FOMO reaches its peak and all sorts of investors are starting to be ALL IN, the upward trend slowly reaches its end; in a bear market, when most leeks have quieted down after cursing through their disappointment, the downward trends slowly reaches the bottom… 1059 | 1060 | There are two famous charts that can help deepen your understanding. One is the “*Kübler-Ross Change Curve*”, and the other is the “*Transition Curve*”… 1061 | 1062 | If you haven’t yet rushed into the trading markets, and you have unexpectedly read this small book, and you have already even read to the last chapter, the do you suppose that you will avoid the “mistake that almost everyone makes” mentioned in at the beginning of this chapter? 1063 | 1064 | My guess is that you still have a **75%** chance of making the mistake. 1065 | 1066 | Why? Because you have a 50% chance of misjudging the cycle, and there’s a 50% chance your ability to control yourself doesn’t have a passing grade… So your chances of winning are approximately only 25%… 1067 | 1068 | Controlling yourself is the hardest thing in the world. Later, when you reflect on your behavior, the saddest points will be when “you clearly knew what you should do but in fact you didn’t do it". It’s because the simpler the principles, the harder they are to follow. And when you realize that you weren’t able to control yourself, it will be hard to even imagine what it was that caused the situation. I also often feel like it’s without rhyme or reason — and the methods that I have finally found to resolve it are also quite unclear: increase time alone, increase time to blame myself, make myself feel more uncomfortable, hope to remember that pain, and hope that doing this will allow me to avoid the same stupid thing next time… 1069 | 1070 | ## Conclusion 1071 | 1072 | You are not a leek. 1073 | 1074 | You have never been a leek. 1075 | 1076 | At most you “almost became a leek”… 1077 | 1078 | — Even if you were “cut” when you first entered the market. 1079 | 1080 | When we first started, we researched how people used “leek” in different situations to come up with a definition for “leek”: 1081 | 1082 | > A so-called “leek” is an individual investor with limited resources who either fails to make money or loses money in the market. 1083 | 1084 | If I hadn’t spent so much time and energy earnestly writing this small book, I wouldn’t have thought of a clearer and more accurate definition: 1085 | 1086 | > So-called “leeks” are those traders who erroneously assume that they are playing a zero-sum game in trading markets that are essentially not zero-sum games. 1087 | 1088 | No matter how much capital these traders have, they are essentially leeks, and they have the same “fate of leeks”. That is to say, the concept of “leek” is not necessarily tied to small individual investors. Leeks are leeks only because the basic assumptions in their minds are wrong in the same way — they are perpetually making decisions according to the ways of thinking of a zero-sum game while playing a non-zero-sum game — and all of their later decisions and thinking are limited by this mistake. It gets to the point that they self-righteously make incorrect decisions, and then constantly self-righteously rationalize those mistakes with wishful thinking, and the cycle continues in this way… 1089 | 1090 | > There is a lyric from “Hotel California” by The Eagles: 1091 | 1092 | > > We are all just prisoners here, of our own device… 1093 | 1094 | > The fate of leeks is just like that! 1095 | 1096 | **You are different!** Even though you almost became like them… I really envy you, because you read this small book! Cough, cough. 1097 | 1098 | You know that this is not a zero-sum game, and from this you can, step-by-step, reach many earth-shattering conclusions… You can temporarily let go of your intelligence, but at the same time you don’t forget to train your intelligence, and so you gradually turn into a methodical trader. 1099 | 1100 | You can see cycles, you can judge at which times you should use which trading frequencies, and you have the ability to take responsibility for your actions. You never again need to childishly use binary logical thinking such as “seeing things in black and white”, or “you are bad and I am good”. You can see through the superficial to research the essence, and you always try to find patterns and associated methodologies that can more completely explain this world. You can even control your mood and behavior, as in the end you reversed the situation, and you were not defeated by that “natural mistake”… 1101 | 1102 | Li Xiaolai uses this book to wish you: 1103 | 1104 | > **A good life of peace…** 1105 | 1106 | ## Appendix 1107 | 1108 | ## 1. Li Xiaolai was never Bitcoin’s “Richest Person”… 1109 | 1110 | In the beginning, lots of bitcoin fans placed a lot of emphasis on bitcoin’s anonymity, but I always turned my nose up at this point of view — which of US dollars, French francs, Hong Kong dollars, Macau dollars, and RMB are not anonymous? You can break the law by writing on paper money! So I’ve never been able to bear the sight of those odd and secretive bitcoin holders. In 2011, I even put an ad at the top of my blog: “Long-term Buyer of Bitcoin”… 1111 | 1112 | In 2013, when a CCTV reporter interviewed me, they asked me how many bitcoin I had. I didn’t feel like there was any need to hide, but I also didn’t need to be that clear, so my answer was: "Six figures, and the first figure is 1”… I didn’t imagine that this question and answer would give me a “label”, or a “hat”, but it ended up on my head — “Bitcoin’s Richest Person”. 1113 | 1114 | But actually, Li Xiaolai was never “Bitcoin’s Richest Person”. At the time, I knew two people in China who had more bitcoin than I did. Even in 2018, there are still at least two people that I know who have more bitcoin than Li Xiaolai — it’s just that they are not the same people as in 2013. 1115 | 1116 | Between 2015 and 2017, I lost more than 9,000 bitcoin because of losses at the Yunbi trading platform. At that time, Yunbi’s bank account would often be frozen, they said because of suspicions of “black money” entering the platform. To make the development team feel confident that even if there was a run on deposits there would be absolutely no problem, I had to sell some bitcoin and deposit money in the bank… It was often a wait of several months, and sometimes several accounts would all be frozen… Several months later the assets were unfrozen, and when I used that money to buy bitcoin again I could only buy back 1/3, or 1/5, or 1/6 of the bitcoin… So now it’s even more certain that I’m not the person in China who holds the most bitcoin. 1117 | 1118 | It is quite miraculous, even if they are less than six figures, that these bitcoin came from 4600 RMB in the beginning of 2005. Back then I was still teaching at New Oriental. One day I was notified that “because of excellent teaching quality” Li Xiaolai would be awarded 2300 shares of New Oriental stock options, and in total I needed to pay 4600 RMB. At the time I was somewhat disappointed, because I entered the company too late… Older teachers had been given tens or even hundreds of thousands of shares a couple of years before. But I didn’t have a temper, I just went and paid the money. New Oriental successfully went public on the NYSE in 2006, and so an unsophisticated person like me with no overseas connections unexpectedly ended up with an overseas account… 1119 | 1120 | After New Oriental went public, my colleagues bought new cars and new houses one after the other, but I didn’t do anything. Why? Not because I have willpower, but because it wasn’t worth that much money! After bringing it back and paying taxes, I couldn’t have even bought a Jetta… The IPO price at the time was equivalent to just over 30 RMB, but there was another fact: four shares were combined into one! So after New Oriental went public, I only had 575 shares! 1121 | 1122 | Later I did some trading, and in the end I converted to shares of Apple — only because I had started to use Macs. By early 2011, these stocks were worth approximately 100,000 USD… 1123 | 1124 | By late April of 2011, when I started to buy bitcoin, I was full of ambition, but I only used just over 10,000 USD to buy 2100 bitcoin at an average price of 6 USD — at the time I thought, if this really works out then “if I own 1/10,000 of an economy its still pretty badass!” 1125 | 1126 | See, I once was also a so-called “leek”, buying, buying, buying as soon as I entered the market. And then? One month later, the price of bitcoin fell, starting from a price of 32 USD and cutting in half in just two or three days… At 24 USD I sold 75% after the thought crossed my mind to leave my initial capital in the market and “use the profits to mine” — what a nice dream! 1127 | 1128 | What was the result? When bitcoin “crashed” I felt even better, and thought that I had gotten out just in time… And then? Then my first batch of 2100 bitcoin was wiped out. 1129 | 1130 | I told about this experience later when I was interviewed by Southern Weekly. Anyway, it ended in “a crushing defeat”. What about the 25% I left in the exchange? You’ll know when you hear the name of the exchange: Mt. Gox… In 2011 this exchange was hacked, and my remaining 500 bitcoin were gone! 1131 | 1132 | I felt bad for several days. I felt as if I’d been using a wicker basket to draw water and wasted a lot of effort. 1133 | 1134 | But suddenly I understood that my previous behavior had been completely wrong! Even three or four months before these setbacks, I had been at a coffee shop in Shanghai with my friend Qian Geng, and after discussion we had reached this conclusion: “directly purchasing bitcoin is the best deal” — “in the finance world there is nobody whose strength and intelligence is more badass than capital, so it’s wrong to compete on strength and intelligence!” But how had I completely forgotten this principle? I was upset, but I made a decision to empty my stock account and buy bitcoin with US dollars… 1135 | 1136 | By then it was already August or September, and bitcoin’s price had entered a long downward spiral… I continuously bought over time, sometimes selling a bit when the price went up, and then buying it back when the price went lower. Exchanges weren’t as developed back then as they are now, and there wasn’t much depth on the exchanges, so I mostly relied on contacting miners through online forums. By May and June of 2012, I had no more energy to buy and sell, and I’d also spent all of my cash. I calculated that the total amount I’d invested was around 160,000 USD (fortunately Apple stock rose rapidly and steadily over that period of time) … Along the way I ran into several swindlers and lost 50,000 USD, so in the end the average cost of the 108,000 bitcoin I had was just over one US dollar… But actually, I never bought bitcoin for less than two dollars — which shows that my trading results weren’t bad, because building a position in a bear market is actually relatively easy. 1137 | 1138 | In order to make myself not trade anymore, I edited the host file on my computer, making all of the bitcoin-related web addresses resolve to “0.0.0.0”, and I set a filter in Gmail to make all bitcoin mailing lists go straight to the Archive folder… (Later, Jihan Wu mentioned that in August of 2012 he wrote me an email when Fried Cat was starting up, but I didn’t respond… Actually, I never saw the email, so I missed the chance to become one of Fried Cat’s founding shareholders!) 1139 | 1140 | In January of 2013 I heard from a friend that the price of bitcoin had risen back to ten USD. I though for a bit, and felt that that wasn’t that much money! So I didn’t pay much attention. By February 28th of 2013, bitcoin’s price had returned to its “historic high” of 32 USD, and I read an article that “enlightened” me. 1141 | 1142 | What did the article say? The article was a daily log of a “leek”, and the content was something like this: 1143 | 1144 | > Since the price of Bitcoin has returned to its historical high, I've sold every Bitcoin in my pocket! 1145 | 1146 | I found this article funny right away, as the image of “I finally got out” shined through on the page — of course, I actually spit a mouthful of Coca-Cola on my screen! This reminded me through a negative that I shouldn’t become a person like that! So I kept convincing myself to remain unmoved… And the result? The result was that within less than 30 days bitcoin's price shot to 100 USD! 1147 | 1148 | Just like that, I experienced the process of “holding on to an asset as it went 100x” for the first time. Only from that time did I have the chance to begin earnestly thinking about how to start learning investing skills, who to consult, how to train, how put it into practice, and which areas needed to be repeatedly thought about… And the result? From the end of 2013 to the beginning of 2016, almost all of my investment activities failed, whether or not they were within or outside of the bitcoin field! Looking back now, of course I failed! I had no experience, no connections, not even a method for thinking — if I didn’t fail then who would fail! 1149 | 1150 | It was only in 2016 that I started to feel like I was “getting better”. Also, at this time I was no longer “alone”. For example, I “picked up” one of the most important people in my life, Lao Mao, who became widely known later. Why do I say “picked up”? Because Qiu Liang met Lao Mao in Shanghai unexpectedly when doing online customer meetings for Yunbi. Without Lao Mao, I would have completely missed Ethereum! His existence let me understand once again the limits of logic, and that on the edges of logic the same reasoning can reach completely opposite conclusions! I had explained this situation in my book Take Time As a Friend, but it was still quite shocking to deeply experience it again. We later invested in many projects together. In addition to Lao Mao, I have met many good partners on this path that I can cooperate with for my whole life — this is my good fortune. 1151 | 1152 | In 2017, I announced to my internal partners that Li Xiaolai would no longer make money for himself — because it had no meaning, because I don’t spend much money and money that you don’t spend is actually not your money in the end. 1153 | 1154 | And it is hard to increase the amount of bitcoin that I have personally, because later on bitcoin’s price increased another 20x or so… bitcoin is like this, the more you mess around with it the less you have — this is a law. And what will I do with these bitcoin in the future? I mentioned this idea in a lecture at Beijing’s Garage Cafe in 2013: 1155 | 1156 | > One of the advantages of holding bitcoin may be that I “don’t need to take the trouble of writing a will”… In the end, when I’m gone, the private keys are essentially destroyed… So this implies that the “circulating supply” is reduced by a portion, which means that the value of all of my bitcoin will be “proportionally divided” among people who hold bitcoin. No matter who they are, and no matter whether they are good or bad people… What is this? This is “great love”. 1157 | 1158 | In the past few years my diabetes has gotten worse and worse, and when it was discovered in 2009 my pancreas was already failing… So my life expectancy is already shorter than normal people. What’s so great about “the richest person”? Especially since it’s a false reputation stuck on my head by others… Lots of people misunderstand me, and think that I care a lot about the things that they think I care about — even though what I care about is definitely something else. 1159 | 1160 | ## 2. INBlockchain’s Open Source Blockchain Investing Principles 1161 | 1162 | Early stage investing is difficult, and it is not suitable for new traders entering the market, no matter how much money they have heard about other people making. However, of course it is not something that is unlearnable. The following are “INBlockchain’s Open Source Blockchain Investing Principles”, and you may want to use them as a framework for your learning and reference. 1163 | 1164 | However, I have the duty of reminding you that there is another very simple principle that you can use right away: 1165 | 1166 | > - In a bear market you can buy, buy, buy as you please! 1167 | > - After a certain amount of time in a bull market you must please start to be extremely, extremely careful… 1168 | 1169 | ### 1. What is a blockchain? 1170 | 1171 | Blockchain refers to a public ledger system maintained by a decentralized network that serves as an open and immutable database. 1172 | 1173 | ### 2. What is Bitcoin? 1174 | 1175 | The term "Bitcoin" can be understood in several different ways, which is why people always get confused and hardly agree with each other when it comes to discussion of bitcoin-related issues. 1176 | 1177 | First of all, Bitcoin is the first, the most successful blockchain application. 1178 | 1179 | Moreover, Bitcoin is a world bank that is not run by any authority, but by a decentralized network. 1180 | 1181 | In addition, this decentralized world bank, Bitcoin, issued a currency that happens to have the exact same name, Bitcoin. Some people are more meticulous and incline to refer to the currency as BTC, rather than Bitcoin. 1182 | 1183 | Finally, seven years after the birth of Bitcoin (2017), seldom have people realized that BTC could also be thought of as the stock of the decentralized world bank, Bitcoin. 1184 | 1185 | ### 3. What is an altcoin? 1186 | 1187 | Since the birth of Bitcoin, thousands of other crypto currencies have been issued. Though most of them are already extinct, some of them are still alive, and some even prosperous. [Litecoin](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://litecoin.com/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1545204283343000&sa=D&ust=1545204283481000&usg=AFQjCNF9Y8Iw1o4gY4cWEfC6cxZfrliQiQ), for example, is the most famous example of an altcoin, and [Dogecoin](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttp://dogecoin.com/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1545204283343000&sa=D&ust=1545204283481000&usg=AFQjCNHjNmJcV4WpX6CqO0KFZhpbEo5PBg) is another. 1188 | 1189 | At first, many people thought of these crypto currencies as "copycats", with no intrinsic value at all. Later on, witnessing that what they thought to have no value persisted or even flourished, they started using another term, "altcoin". Perhaps the world needs more than one world bank, who knows? And... who cares. 1190 | 1191 | Here is what I think: 1192 | 1193 | In the markets, people are buying two kinds of value: the intrinsic and the superficial. An undeniable fact is: for those who are buying the superficial, it looks exactly the same as the intrinsic. 1194 | 1195 | ### 4. What are MBAcoins? 1196 | 1197 | By MBAcoins, I mean coins issued by Meaningful Blockchain Applications (MBA). By Meaningful, I mean the applications are solving real problems, not problems that have already been solved by Bitcoin. 1198 | 1199 | Honestly, I don't think altcoins have solved any problem that bitcoin didn't. And I wish (not believe), at the end of the day, one world bank would be enough. 1200 | 1201 | The truth is, this world needs more than one blockchain application. Perhaps the second MBAcoin is [Namecoin](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://namecoin.org/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1545204283345000&sa=D&ust=1545204283482000&usg=AFQjCNEN_XZEOGrhd-erh86nTSqUB7THdQ), a blockchain application trying to offer a decentralized domain service. [Ethereum](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://www.ethereum.org/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1545204283345000&sa=D&ust=1545204283482000&usg=AFQjCNEn7Kh82gK-Gd8X9Eah9kwKJk4wZg) is another successful MBA that is built upon blockchain technology to offer new functions including smart contracts. 1202 | 1203 | At the time of publishing (June, 2017), many MBAs have been running for more than 6 months and are performing pretty well. For example, Sia provides decentralized storage service just like Dropbox. Steem is another young MBA that creates, discovers and distributes content with a public ledger built upon blockchain technology. 1204 | 1205 | ### 5. What is the trend? 1206 | 1207 | In the past few years, Bitcoin has dominated the blockchain world with its single largest market cap. In April 2017, however, Bitcoin's dominance dropped to 52%, although its price had been surging along with other blockchain assets. 1208 | 1209 | This is an important signal that the blockchain world is transforming into a forest, not a piece of land with a single tree anymore. If this is the case, this prediction might well be true: 1210 | 1211 | In the future, Bitcoin Dominance will continuously drop, and even drop to less than 5%... 1212 | 1213 | ### 6. What have we done in the past? 1214 | 1215 | I'm a large bitcoin holder. Since I take BTC as the stock of a world bank, it's quite natural for me to spend as little BTC as possible. 1216 | 1217 | Before 2014, we invested [Bitshares](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://bitshares.org/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1545204283347000&sa=D&ust=1545204283483000&usg=AFQjCNHE1LZ40pqaEOQkuYvCvq6SmVkIWw), [yunbi.com](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://yunbi.com/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1545204283348000&sa=D&ust=1545204283483000&usg=AFQjCNE4iFQu-rYr4Nf15o2-k7qDjoPY3A) and I have been personally maintaining[ bitcoinsand.com](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://bitcoinsand.com/%26amp;sa%3DD%26amp;ust%3D1545204283348000&sa=D&ust=1545204283483000&usg=AFQjCNF4phS0ltkeakzgsRA_XM80cNYKwQ), a bitcoin bank, for years. Since the last quarter of 2015, my team and I started to invest in MBAs in earnest, but with a rigorous set of principles. We have invested in Sia, Steem, Zcash, QTUM, EOS and numerous others. Often, we invest both in startup equity and also in the blockchain assets they issue. We are actively participating ICOs around the world. 1218 | 1219 | ### 7. Why open-source my investing principles? 1220 | 1221 | Investment is by far the most risky activity, because every aspect it requires cannot be genetically inherited. 1222 | 1223 | The birth of every true innovation is followed by many copycats and frauds. This is especially true when the innovation comes with inherent financial functionality. 1224 | 1225 | Investing in blockchain startups and their assets is extremely risky in that people are often attracted by the tremendous profits they have heard about, rather than by any thorough understanding of the value that the application creates. 1226 | 1227 | By publicizing our investing principles, we are trying protect ourselves. At best, this altruism serves selfish motives: the less fraud happens, the safer we are. 1228 | 1229 | ### 8. Principles 1230 | 1231 | Sometimes asking questions is much more effective than describing principles: by struggling to get an absolute answer of appropriate questions, principles are adhered to. Here are major questions we have asked ourselves again and again before we decide to invest any blockchain startup or blockchain asset: 1232 | 1233 | > - Is this truly needed by the world? 1234 | > - What otherwise unsolvable problem does it solve completely? 1235 | > - Is decentralization truly needed? 1236 | > - Is an open ledger truly necessary? 1237 | > - Can an open ledger truly boost the efficiency of the business model? 1238 | > - To what extent is it a DAC (Decentralized autonomous corporation)? 1239 | > - If we decide to invest, what percentage of our fund should we use exactly? 1240 | 1241 | That's all; the simplest questions tend to need the toughest thinking to get to an accurate and concrete answer. 1242 | 1243 | 1244 | 1245 | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /covers/green1.jpg: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks/87b6e465f5c7d3e060fe55821a63faeb9cbf714b/covers/green1.jpg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /covers/green2.jpg: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks/87b6e465f5c7d3e060fe55821a63faeb9cbf714b/covers/green2.jpg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /covers/green3.jpg: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks/87b6e465f5c7d3e060fe55821a63faeb9cbf714b/covers/green3.jpg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /covers/green4.jpg: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks/87b6e465f5c7d3e060fe55821a63faeb9cbf714b/covers/green4.jpg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /covers/red1.jpg: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks/87b6e465f5c7d3e060fe55821a63faeb9cbf714b/covers/red1.jpg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /covers/red2.jpg: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks/87b6e465f5c7d3e060fe55821a63faeb9cbf714b/covers/red2.jpg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /covers/red3.jpg: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks/87b6e465f5c7d3e060fe55821a63faeb9cbf714b/covers/red3.jpg -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /covers/red4.jpg: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xiaolai/the-self-cultivation-of-leeks/87b6e465f5c7d3e060fe55821a63faeb9cbf714b/covers/red4.jpg --------------------------------------------------------------------------------